At a crossroads, roster changes feel inevitable for these Celtics

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/celtics-roster-changes-feel-inevitable-crossroads-approaching?cid=sm_npd_rsn_bos_fb_mn&fbclid=IwAR0WP0mxZEzXFdtjnonOHqxp4q-fEz6ExOyDSxJfoZRNm8DzGpY5y_9_pN0



At a crossroads, roster changes feel inevitable for these Celtics


21H AGO

BY CHRIS FORSBERG
CELTICS INSIDER


The Boston Celtics are speeding toward a crossroads we all knew was approaching. Little about the team’s play has made it easy to pick a definitive path.

After watching the Celtics crumble on Christmas Day in Milwaukee, it’s understandable if you're leaning towards a future focus. Boston is a gruesome 6-12 in clutch games (score within five points in the final five minutes) this season and 23-38 (.377 winning percentage) in clutch games over the past two years. We’ve long subscribed to the notion that one of the biggest indicators about a team’s playoff potential is their success in close games, and the Celtics fail that test miserably.

Take a step back and a counterargument emerges. Despite this team’s roller coaster ways and a 16-17 record that has them stuck in the play-in tournament mud, Boston has a projected point differential of plus-2.5 -- fifth-best in the East -- and FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model suggests a 46-36 record behind a bit of a second-half surge.


Boston’s core has played well despite the injuries and COVID issues that has created inconsistency in the players around them. The four-man lineup of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, and Marcus Smart has a plus-12 net rating in 534 non-trash time possessions and ranks in the 96th percentile among high-usage lineups, per Cleaning the Glass data.


Boston’s December performance was supposed to help the Celtics decide the best path forward. The league’s COVID woes and Boston’s maddening swings in performance haven’t made decisions any easier.

It feels highly probable that, when the calendar flips to 2022, the Celtics will be 18-18 with the midseason checkpoint in sight. If Boston had found ways to get to the finish line of recent games against the 76ers and Bucks, then maybe investing in this core would be an easier decision. Fumbling away both games and sitting 7-11 versus teams .500 or better might suggest it’s more prudent to take a step back with hopes of accelerating future progress.

Poor Brad Stevens inherited a shoelace knot from Danny Ainge and has done a solid job of detangling. But the Celtics’ roster is still flawed and the team’s ability to reestablish itself as a legitimate contender might not happen until a third star -- or at least a high-end impact talent who complements the core of this team -- arrives.

Boston might ultimately toe a two-track path: one that sees the team move some veteran talent in hopes of replenishing a draft treasure chest that needs to be restocked if the C's hope to land another big fish via the trade market, but also puts the onus on the core of this team to carry it as far as it can go this year.

The prickliest question is whether Boston, if it does ultimately fade from contending for a prime spot in the East, should steer heavy into playing for the best possible lottery pick, something that could be a key asset in whatever comes next.

There are plenty more decisions for Stevens, but those have become easier given the state of the team:

As Payton Pritchard starts to emerge from his sophomore slump, the desire to move Dennis Schroder for future assets should intensify. Schroder ensured the Celtics didn’t sink early in the season while Brown was sidelined with a hamstring issue but there’s no road map to a long-term relationship and his performance with the core -- a meager plus-1.1 net rating in 364 possessions alongside Tatum and Brown -- suggest it’s best to cash out.

That would also open the door to increased playing time for Pritchard and fellow 2020 draftee Aaron Nesmith, which is vital as the Celtics determine whether these two are complementary pieces of this core, or at least boost their trade value behind more minutes.

Moving Schroder and some of this offseason’s other flotsam (Juancho Hernangomez, Bruno Fernando) could help the Celtics dip below the luxury tax line. This wouldn’t just ease repeater penalties moving forward -- making it easier for ownership to let Stevens splurge for a third star -- but would also position the team for a big rebate check given the big spending across the league.

Now, Joe Fan shouldn’t get excited about Celtics owners getting a $12 million refund, but it does matter when accounting for future spending.

Will a legitimate contender call about Josh Richardson? His midlevel salary, with an extra season tacked on this past summer, could entice a team in need of a two-way wing. There will be some consideration to carrying Richardson through the season in case this team does surge and Richardson could always be salary filler in a bigger deal for an impact talent down the road.

Is there any way to beef up this roster while still avoiding the tax and maintaining flexibility into the summer? Trading Schroder for a low-cost shooter could be advantageous, but might also leave the team with the same minutes-crunch for younger talent.

The Celtics have three trade exceptions available to work with, including the $17.1 million exception generated from the Evan Fournier sign-and-trade to New York. Let Fournier be a reminder that a big deadline splurge doesn’t always pay off, and Boston might be better off stashing those for the early summer when it might need every available avenue to fill out a top-heavy roster.

Bigger questions could emerge about the core of this team, but Stevens can do some initial tinkering and the gauge where his team stands in the month leading up to February’s trade deadline.


Bob
MY NOTE: The Trade Deadline this season is February 10th, 6 1/2 weeks away. That is the official "fish-or-cut-bait" day for NBA GMs. They decide whether they're going to go for it this year or start the roster/salary cap restructuring for the offseason. Just like Brad they're probably still more than a few of them that are thinking "I wonder what we'd have if we only the roster I put together were healthy and could actually play together?". By February, however, reality starts to set in. Someone will want Schroder, if for nothing else than as a short-term rental for a playoff run, he's that cheap. In fact, I am surprised he's not already gone. The others, like Juancho and Bruno, who'd want them? The difference maker will be the TPE. A primer on what you can and cannot do with it has been provided by gyso but you can use it to facilitate trades for other teams while you take back less salary (e.g. a $17M TPE can be used to bring a player with less than a $17M salary) but you can get draft assets for being a facilitator. Maybe I'm wrong, but if you can use the TPE to take the salary sting out of other teams' trades that might produce positive results.

Then again, maybe I'm just flailing about hoping Brad can pull a rabbit out his hat even though I have no idea what kind of hat he has.

Just as a final tease, Bradley Beal's last guaranteed contract year is this year. Next year he has a $36M PLAYER OPTION. If he opts out the bidding will be stiff, perhaps too much for us without giving up major assets but, on the other hand, if he lets Wizards management know he's not going to opt in and stay with them that might motivate him so they don't lose him for nothing. I can dream, can't I?


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I have nothing constructive to add to the Forsberg article or Bob's thoughts.

My only curiosity is what's being discussed among the ownership group. I'm not talking Brad or Ime, I'm talking above their level.

Wyc Grousbeck, Irving Grousbeck, Stephen Pagliuca, Robert Epstein, Paul Edgerley, Glenn Hutchins, James Pallotta, and Matt Levin.

They're the owners and executive committee. They have the most at stake. Their thoughts are the ones that count. What moves do they want to make?

That worries me when you have a bunch of bean counters instead of basketball savvy folks on top of the food chain making these kind of decisions.

Usually if they are involved or it reaches that level, they aren't going to recommend a tweak here or a tweak there. They are screaming at each other like we are that the house is on fire! Remember, their dividend payment comes in every month come hell or high water. They aren't panicking yet.

I'm sure the owners are pushing Silver to keep the doors open as they are tired of the reduced monthly checks in which COVID has provided them over the last 2 years but aren't going to shut the doors unless it's the absolute very last resort. Shutting down means no dividend payment or at least at a very significantly reduced rate. They aren't too worried about the value of the franchise in the short run (as you can tell by the rash of 40+ year olds they are 10-day contract signing!) since they are in these franchises for multi-generations. So they PO a few fans. Talking in terms of Vegas...they are the House. The House ALWAYS makes money. People with money at this level don't lose money. Ever.

db

Fosterg or Mannix, one of them last night mentioned that this is the worst year Bradley Beal has ever had. I do not know facts and figures, but, he could be just about ready for a change of scenery. I wonder, his he really the answer. At this point, with all of these ins and outs on the lineup, the uncertainty is really a nightmare for Ime. I know he has been criticized for play calling, for rotations, but you have to wonder, is it him or them?????

In all my years of watching Celtic basketball I have never seen a team that just doesn’t get embarrassed by losses like last night. This team is too good for the record they have.

I do agree that if there is a taker out there, Brad will make a deal for Schroeder. The other two mentioned are taking seats that someone could fill. God knows they are not getting playing time so if you are not going to play them, let them go

Agreed Rosalie.  If this was ANY team from the 60's or the 80's and they had been embarrassed like we have (and I'm not saying we didn't deserve it, either), that team, at a BAM, would have gone on a 10-12-game blowout tear with an average win margin of +12 or better.  The world has gone soft, Rosalie.  When everybody gets a trophy regardless of one's performance, this is what you get.  After a loss, they just look in their checking accounts.  There's plenty o' solace and comfort there..."Hmmm.  That much in there and I just had the crap beat out of me by a real G-League team?  Yeah, I'm good."    

db

dbrown4 wrote:Agreed Rosalie.  If this was ANY team from the 60's or the 80's and they had been embarrassed like we have (and I'm not saying we didn't deserve it, either), that team, at a BAM, would have gone on a 10-12-game blowout tear with an average win margin of +12 or better.  The world has gone soft, Rosalie.  When everybody gets a trophy regardless of one's performance, this is what you get.  After a loss, they just look in their checking accounts.  There's plenty o' solace and comfort there..."Hmmm.  That much in there and I just had the crap beat out of me by a real G-League team?  Yeah, I'm good."    

db

S*^&t you dont have to go back that far buddy. This crap wouldnt be happening with Pierce, KG and Rondo either. Someone would wake up with a headache

True Ktron.  I'm so pissed I forgot about 2008!  I think 2008 team gets the shaft because of what happened in 2010 vs. Lakers and the Kendrick Perkins injury.  Without that, we would have won 2 out of 3 championships from 2008-2010 and would establish that team as dynastic like the other two eras.  

db

NYCelt wrote:I have nothing constructive to add to the Forsberg article or Bob's thoughts.

My only curiosity is what's being discussed among the ownership group. I'm not talking Brad or Ime, I'm talking above their level.

Wyc Grousbeck, Irving Grousbeck, Stephen Pagliuca, Robert Epstein, Paul Edgerley, Glenn Hutchins, James Pallotta, and Matt Levin.

They're the owners and executive committee. They have the most at stake. Their thoughts are the ones that count. What moves do they want to make?

Does anyone have any idea how much more money Wyc and company would make if we were a true contender? Are the Celtics selling out home games? The essence of my question is how steep is the financial motivation for ownership? If they're selling out, moving merchandise, and on track to at least get in the playoffs is it possible ownership sees this as acceptable? Unlike us, they have financial considerations in addition to wanting to win.

Shamrock1000 wrote:

NYCelt wrote:I have nothing constructive to add to the Forsberg article or Bob's thoughts.

My only curiosity is what's being discussed among the ownership group. I'm not talking Brad or Ime, I'm talking above their level.

Wyc Grousbeck, Irving Grousbeck, Stephen Pagliuca, Robert Epstein, Paul Edgerley, Glenn Hutchins, James Pallotta, and Matt Levin.

They're the owners and executive committee. They have the most at stake. Their thoughts are the ones that count. What moves do they want to make?

Does anyone have any idea how much more money Wyc and company would make if we were a true contender? Are the Celtics selling out home games? The essence of my question is how steep is the financial motivation for ownership? If they're selling out, moving merchandise, and on track to at least get in the playoffs is it possible ownership sees this as acceptable? Unlike us, they have financial considerations in addition to wanting to win.

Good questions.

I think the only thing we can say for certain is that going deep into the playoff rounds equals a lot more revenue.

I doubt an early playoff exit, or missing the postseason altogether, would make for a happy ownership group.

My opinion; if I were one of the 8 equity partners, providing things stay the same, I would be pushing for major top to bottom change following this season. Nobody from Brad Stevens down through Sam Hauser and the popcorn vendors would be safe.

NYCelt wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:

NYCelt wrote:I have nothing constructive to add to the Forsberg article or Bob's thoughts.

My only curiosity is what's being discussed among the ownership group. I'm not talking Brad or Ime, I'm talking above their level.

Wyc Grousbeck, Irving Grousbeck, Stephen Pagliuca, Robert Epstein, Paul Edgerley, Glenn Hutchins, James Pallotta, and Matt Levin.

They're the owners and executive committee. They have the most at stake. Their thoughts are the ones that count. What moves do they want to make?

Does anyone have any idea how much more money Wyc and company would make if we were a true contender? Are the Celtics selling out home games? The essence of my question is how steep is the financial motivation for ownership? If they're selling out, moving merchandise, and on track to at least get in the playoffs is it possible ownership sees this as acceptable? Unlike us, they have financial considerations in addition to wanting to win.

Good questions.

I think the only thing we can say for certain is that going deep into the playoff rounds equals a lot more revenue.

I doubt an early playoff exit, or missing the postseason altogether, would make for a happy ownership group.

My opinion; if I were one of the 8 equity partners, providing things stay the same, I would be pushing for major top to bottom change following this season. Nobody from Brad Stevens down through Sam Hauser and the popcorn vendors would be safe.

. 1000% agree!!

cowens/oldschool wrote:

NYCelt wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:

NYCelt wrote:I have nothing constructive to add to the Forsberg article or Bob's thoughts.

My only curiosity is what's being discussed among the ownership group. I'm not talking Brad or Ime, I'm talking above their level.

Wyc Grousbeck, Irving Grousbeck, Stephen Pagliuca, Robert Epstein, Paul Edgerley, Glenn Hutchins, James Pallotta, and Matt Levin.

They're the owners and executive committee. They have the most at stake. Their thoughts are the ones that count. What moves do they want to make?

Does anyone have any idea how much more money Wyc and company would make if we were a true contender? Are the Celtics selling out home games? The essence of my question is how steep is the financial motivation for ownership? If they're selling out, moving merchandise, and on track to at least get in the playoffs is it possible ownership sees this as acceptable? Unlike us, they have financial considerations in addition to wanting to win.

Good questions.

I think the only thing we can say for certain is that going deep into the playoff rounds equals a lot more revenue.

I doubt an early playoff exit, or missing the postseason altogether, would make for a happy ownership group.

My opinion; if I were one of the 8 equity partners, providing things stay the same, I would be pushing for major top to bottom change following this season. Nobody from Brad Stevens down through Sam Hauser and the popcorn vendors would be safe.

Just curious, what do you think of the coach so far?

I dont think we having a coaching issue at this stage. He’s had barely a half of season as a head coach with a very flawed roster. These same things were happening under Brad as well which tells me that roster moves need to be made. If and when that happens, depending on how major these moves are, then will have a better picture of what kind of head coach we have.

It's hard to judge a coach when he never has the luxury of having his top rotation available for more than a game or two in a row.  Yeah, it is called a luxury now.  LOL

[Copy, past and edit warning!]

It's hard to judge a team when they never have the luxury of having their top rotation available for more than a game or two in a row.  Yeah, it is called a luxury now.  LOL

Okay, when we have a two-way player getting important minutes and his waived-off three pointer was called a potentially crucial loss of points in a game, you kinda have to admit, "We ain't in Kansas anymore".  When we get calls for 40 year old Joe Johnson to get playing time because, well, it can't hurt, right?  That just is not normal.

IMO, this whole "At a crossroads, roster changes feel inevitable" is media-driven nonsense brought to you by Oscar-Meyer.  Currently, the players listed as unavailable due to covid is off the charts.  We recently signed an emergency replacement player and he immediately was placed into "health and safety protocols".  Even before the new Omicron variant took over, our pre-season and early regular season was affected by the Delta variant of covid.

This has affected the NBA's ability to put a "normal" product on the court since March 2020.  Now we have a coach calling for the suspension of the regular season.  Hockey (NHL) took a time out and maybe it's time for the NBA to follow suit.  The product on the court is not what I paid for and is mostly unwatchable.

What I know is that when we were at full strength, we had a formidable team.  Most of the players knew their roles and their actual place in the roster, and it all added up to an exciting future for this team.  Now, not so much.  

I am ready for a normal season with normal injuries so we can carry on (and on) about them.  In a normal season, fans would be carrying on about Smart's recent hand laceration.  Did he have another round with his hotel's mirror?  (LOL)  Now, you barely hear a peep.  That's another symptom of how this season just is not normal.  So why treat it like it is?

Of course, that is my opinion and I just felt it needed to be stated.  Everyone else should feel free to chime in with theirs.

gyso, I agree with all you stated. This team has talent and potential and has not had a fair chance to display it. I hope we don't trade either J. Clearly they need each other and at least one other good shooter on the floor to shine. At times, other players, DS, GW, PP, JR, have shown signs that they can be that third reliable shooter. Maybe they all have a role. RW is playing extended minutes and while he needs more experience, IMO, he is improving. MS is an enigma. So good at times, but so xxx! volatile. The trouble with trading is finding value, and a team that advertises it wants to trade is starting off on the wrong foot. I think stories advertising the Celtics' woes may be planted by other GMs, hoping to drive down the price of players in green. With a new GM, new coach and covid-19, I would say the team nearly meets my expectations, but I expect much better performance in the second half. Happy New Year, all! Go Celtics! hawk

cowens/oldschool wrote:

NYCelt wrote:

Shamrock1000 wrote:

NYCelt wrote:I have nothing constructive to add to the Forsberg article or Bob's thoughts.

My only curiosity is what's being discussed among the ownership group. I'm not talking Brad or Ime, I'm talking above their level.

Wyc Grousbeck, Irving Grousbeck, Stephen Pagliuca, Robert Epstein, Paul Edgerley, Glenn Hutchins, James Pallotta, and Matt Levin.

They're the owners and executive committee. They have the most at stake. Their thoughts are the ones that count. What moves do they want to make?

Does anyone have any idea how much more money Wyc and company would make if we were a true contender? Are the Celtics selling out home games? The essence of my question is how steep is the financial motivation for ownership? If they're selling out, moving merchandise, and on track to at least get in the playoffs is it possible ownership sees this as acceptable? Unlike us, they have financial considerations in addition to wanting to win.

Good questions.

I think the only thing we can say for certain is that going deep into the playoff rounds equals a lot more revenue.

I doubt an early playoff exit, or missing the postseason altogether, would make for a happy ownership group.

My opinion; if I were one of the 8 equity partners, providing things stay the same, I would be pushing for major top to bottom change following this season. Nobody from Brad Stevens down through Sam Hauser and the popcorn vendors would be safe.

Just curious, what do you think of the coach so far?

I don't think I've seen enough to reach a conclusion on the coach, positive or negative.

That in itself is starting to bother me. I'm not seeing any obvious strong leadership traits, or any obvious or special in-game strategy adjustments being made.

I think he needs more time and an upgraded roster, to be fair, but I'm beginning to be a little concerned about the coaches ability to adjust on the fly.

As a fan, and if the team's play continues like this to the season's end, there aren't many changes I would object to. That includes major front office and coaching changes. I'm not ready to say blow it up yet, but my hand (my opinion, that is) is leaning on the detonator. I'm sincerely concerned that the team is heading for an even further extended period of mediocrity, a la the Bulls immediately post-Jordan. Always in the playoffs, never advancing far. 1 title over the past 36 years is a big drop-off for a once dominant and iconic franchise. The problem could even be ownership has been unwilling to push for major moves. Hard to say for sure, but I'm starting to lean toward rooting for a top-down overhaul.

Of course there will be roster changes at some point.  There are always roster changes, right?  How many time did Danny make roster changes?  In the best of times and in the worst of times there have been roster changes.  That is a given.

What's bugging this team?

The Covid bug has been recycling through this team all season long.  Some Teams are still playing well even with guys being out.  Our team does not respond very well  because we are still missing a key ingredient that mostly impacts winning or losing games.  In many respects it remains an issue even with a fully healthy roster.

This team does not shoot the ball well.  So it is not all about missed player games,  although that exacerbates the situation.

When this team goes 4 for 97 from deep and declare "but they were open looks"  you can only arrive at one logical conclusion.  This roster lacks quality perimeter shot makers and since the 3 pointer dominates our offensive schemes, we are struggling to win consistently.

Boston launches 36.5 3 point shots per game.  That represents around 41% of our shot attempts.  Maybe we should stop scratching our heads over all the minutiae.  Our two best scorers have been struggling in making 3 point shots.  Brad did not add a single quality 3 point shooter to this team.  The only bright spot has been the recent play of our young guys, Grant, and Payton.  But those guys are not volume 3 point shooters.
 
Yes roster improvements are greatly needed.  And it should start with finding guys who can make 3 point shots at a high level.