We rootin' for the Lakers or Spurs tonight?

tjmakz wrote:bob,

LA is on a 1 game losing streak.
SA still does not scare me. Only Boston and Miami are the teams that I feel could/would beat LA in the playoffs. SA have been unbelievably healthy (same starting 5 for all 49 games) and they have been shooting the ball great from outside.
I expect Richard Jefferson to come back down to his regular decent shooting, not lights out shooting like he has done this year.
SA does not have a significant inside presence and could struggle with bigger teams in the playoffs.
The one thing they do have which hurts LA is having two guys who have great dribble penetration/kick out to shooter capabilities in Ginobili and Parker. Kobe does a good job at controling one of them, but Fisher and Blake didn't slow them down in the 2nd half.
If Kupchak is on the phone, I would suspect it would be for a fast pg which they have needed for years. I wonder if Houston will be looking to shed some salaries close to the trade deadline since they are the only luxury tax paying team that most likely will not make the playoffs. Shedding $4.5m in salaries this year would result in a savings of about $12m for Houston when you factor in the salary, luxury tax payment, and the luxury tax credit they would get for being under the luxury tax threshold.
Kevin Martin and Kyle Lowry are locked in long term contracts and I can't see Aaron Brooks sitting on the bench for the next 3 years behind Lowry.
That is just my fantasy addition for LA this week...

TJ,

Oops again, you're right. They beat the Houston Rockets in OT in LA to separate their two-game losing streak from last night's one-game losing streak.

LA has a ton of talent, a ton, but they have weaknesses. Their point guard corp is the worst in the league and they are thin (albeit high-powered) up front. Does SA have to worry about injuries due to age? Hell yeah, just as much as the Celtics do. Do they have the depth to sustain themselves if they have age injuries like the Celtics have done when we lost Shaq and JON? I'm not sure, but probably not. But LA is doomed if Pau goes down. I still think HE'S their MVP, not Kobe, and his lackluster performance this year is why they're not closer to the Spurs in the West. Kobe, despite playing fewer minutes and some loss of athleticism due to coming off his knee surgery, is still remarkably efficient. LA is also doomed if Kobe's knees just can't do bone-on-bone anymore. Bone-on-bone is a recipe for bone spurs (no caps :-). Bynum's ongoing ability to deliver quality minutes over an extended stretch is always a question mark. LA's lack of depth then would be telling. Every one of LA's top 6 players are virtually irreplaceable. Boston has shown we can hang in there with losses to our starters, I doubt LA could and we have yet to see if SA could.

An upgrade at the point guard spot would make a HUGE difference for LA. Aaron Brooks would be welcome in purple-and-gold, no doubt. I concur. But who do you give up? Laker-for-life Fisher? The numbers don't work anyway. Shannon Brown? Then who's behind Kobe? Do you think Houston would take a couple of spare parts like Ratliff and Smith; or one of those guys and Caracter and Ebanks? Sorry, but a franchise usually only gets one of those steals in their lifetime and LA got theirs with Gasol for Kwame Brown etal (Boston has been very lucky in this area. We traded Ed McCauley and Cliff Hagan for Bill Russell and we traded the #1 pick in the draft (who turned out to be Joe Barry Carroll) for the #3 pick (who turned out to be Kevin McHale) and Robert Parish).


bob

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bob,

I think Pau is LA's Most Important Player but not MVP. Odom has been more consistent then Pau this year. If Pau didn't get off to such a great start this year, I would not have felt he should be an all-star. Kobe had a long talk to Pau after the Boston game and told him he needs to be more aggressive, be a selfish a$$hole on the court and be a "Black Swan" not a White Swan.

Having 'what if' discussions about superstars getting hurt is fruitless because we know the result and you can't worry about it. If Kobe goes down, LA is toast. The same is true for Pierce, LeBron, Ginobili, Durant, Howard, Rose and many others. You can't worry about it. Chicago had the best player in the league who stayed healthy and they won 6 titles and could have won more.

Losing Barnes has hurt LA. Walton and Ebanks can play with top SF's which means Kobe has to. Barnes is not physical like Artest but he is an excellent defender.

LA has their trade exception from the Vujacic deal so that can help them take on a bigger salary of another player. In order for them to get a decent player, that team will demand that LA take back a bad contract. LA could trade Joe Smith, a 1st round pick and their trade exception for Brooks and Brad Miller. Would saving $12m this year, getting out from under Miller's contract and getting a 1st round pick be enough to trade Brooks and Miller to LA? I doubt Houston would make that deal. That was just an example. LA's big salary trade chip is Bynum. Some team who is looking to shed salary might want him as their center. He has only 1 more guaranteed year.
I wouldn't be surprised it Shannon is traded since Barnes will be playing SG and SF when he returns. He is working on the triangle offense as a SG while he is re-habbing.

I didn't watch the game, but I just glanced at the box score. It looked as though the Lakers actually played a Celtic-type of game in many ways.

Distributed scoring (5 in double figures vs. 3 for S.A.)
VERY high assist/FG % (71% to 57% for S.A.) Kobe with 10 assists
Better FT %: 82% -77%
Slightly more offensive rebounds (12-10)—better than the usual Celtics game
Slightly more defensive rebounds (32-28)
More points in the paint (42-32)

San Antonio won the 3-pointer battle, 6-2 and the fast break battle, 16-11

Neither team committed a load of turnovers (10 apiece).

I would be the last person to depend primarily on stats in analyzing a game, but it struck me that some of the things I criticize the Lakers for were not true in this game. Yeah, Kobe was 5-18, but Duncan was 3-12.

If I were to see all the stats except the final score, I would have assumed a Lakers win. So there must have been some interesting elements of the game that escaped the box score—like one last tip-in at the buzzer. I notice Phil went only 8-deep and got better production out of Artest. If I were a Lakers fan, I could probably find some glimmers in this one.

It had to be a great game to watch.

Sam