SHOULD AVERY BRADLEY STAY IN THE STARTING LINEUP?

The Celtics have won all five games that Avery Bradley has started for Ray Allen, should he stay in the lineup when Allen returns?

Over the last five games, the Celtics have held four teams below 90 points per 100 possessions. Included in that list are Utah – who ranks seventh in offensive efficiency – and now Miami, who ranks third. Playing great defense is nothing new for the Celtics, who rank third in defensive efficiency, allowing 99 points per 100 possessions, but this a whole other level.

It’s not a coincidence that their defense has become even more ferocious since Avery Bradley joined the starting lineup. It’s not that Bradley makes the Celtics’ defense go, it’s that he makes it even better. Per BasketballValue, the Celtics allow just 96 points per 100 possessions when Bradley is on the court and are five points tougher when he’s on the court than when he’s off. That’s the biggest individual impact on the team.

"He’s the best perimeter defender in the league," Keyon Dooling said. "I bet you if you did a poll around the league and you asked all the guards who they hate playing against the most, it wouldn’t be the guy who scores 25 a night on you. It would be the guy that gets up in your space and takes everything away from you. I really want to echo that message. Avery is the best perimeter defender in the league."

Most of the league already knew that Bradley was murder on opposing point guards. What they are finding out now is that the second-year guard can hold his ground against two-guards, as well.

Take his defense on Dwyane Wade on Sunday in the Celtics’ 91-72 victory. Bradley let it be known early that he wasn’t going to allow Wade to back him down and get interior position without a fight and in the first eight minutes of the game, Wade attempted just one shot.

"I told Avery, just like those guys are special offensively, you are special defensively," Dooling said. "Now go out and just play your game. Don’t worry about the name on the back of the jersey, just go out and play Avery Bradley defense. The kid has no fear. He’s tough. He knows the angles. He’s just an exceptional defender."

The highlight play came when Wade attempted to throw down an emphatic jam and Bradley cold-blocked him at the rim, but away from the ball, Bradley made sure to do his work early. Wade shot just 6-for-17 and was never really a factor.

"Avery is just a tremendous defender,” Paul Pierce said. “Just having him on D-Wade, we knew he could guard pretty much any of these two-guards in the league, and the one-guard. I think tonight really gives him confidence that he can guard the best out there. He should be on the All-Defense team if he continues to go like this. Not a lot of people know about him but I think today everybody was able to see what he's capable of."

So here’s the intriguing hypothetical, and yes, this is somewhat crazy and probably an uncomfortable notion in some corners of the locker room: Should the Celtics consider leaving Bradley in the starting lineup when Ray Allen returns from his ankle injury?

"I don’t know yet," coach Doc Rivers said. "We’re playing well, but we’ve also played well with Ray, by the way. I think people forget that part. The good thing is we have options. And we have players with confidence and we have a lot of them. That’s where the season has helped. The best part is not Avery for me. Or [Mickael Pietrus]. The best part is Keyon is coming on, so we have an extra guy, and we need it."

There are pros and cons on both sides of the issue for Rivers.

Coming into Sunday’s game, the starting lineup with Bradley at the off guard position is a rather incredible 24 points better per 100 possessions than the opponent. It’s not just defensively. In 151 possessions, they have scored 173 points.


It’s not all Bradley, of course, but a significant addition to the Celtics’ offensive gameplan has been Bradley’s ability to cut to the basket and create easy scoring chances. "I always cut to score, but I don’t always cut just for me," Bradley said. "I cut for my teammates too."

This all comes back to spacing and Bradley’s movement is similar to the effect that Allen’s constant running around picks has on the halfcourt offense. In the past, Allen was often placed in lineups with the reserves and those lineups performed well from a plus/minus standpoint. The Allen effect has been muted at times this season for all sorts of reasons, but it’s worth considering how much better their offense has worked with Bradley, and whether Allen’s shooting ability could provide a lift for a second unit that has struggled to score.

On the flipside, it remains to be seen if Allen’s effectiveness would be limited if he’s not playing with Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett and Pierce. Of course, there’s also the important dynamic of what that move could mean in the locker room for a team that is clearly going through transition. We’re not talking about a journeyman here. We’re talking about Ray Allen, future Hall of Famer and a player who has earned his place in the team’s hierarchy.

Regardless, Rivers said that he will try to find a way to get Bradley and Rondo on the court when Allen does come back.

"No doubt," the coach said. "[Bradley] and Pietrus. They’re such tough defenders and they give you a disposition. We’ve already got Kevin on the floor and I think with Avery and Pietrus they give Rondo life defensively. He feels like, I’ve got some guys out here that can put pressure on the ball."

What Bradley also does is make the Celtics more versatile defensively.

"I think Avery can guard ones and twos," Rivers said. "He struggles a little with three’s. We have three guys that can do that. Pietrus can guard one-two-three. Avery and Rondo can guard one and two and he’s guarded three’s at times. That’s something we have not had. We’re switching things that we would never switch. It’s allowed Kevin and Brandon [Bass] to stay closer to the basket, which has helped us."

Ultimately, this is an incredibly positive development for the Celtics. Bradley came into the season with no set position and no role. He’s emerged as an elite defender and an intriguing offensive player who seems to get better by the game. Not only is he a valuable part of the future, he’s also becoming an integral part of the present, no matter how Rivers chooses to set his lineups.

112288

Yes, Doc, please keep Bradley in the starting lineup. His speed and growing composure have helped in so many ways, from keying fast starts to saving our bigs by cutting down on opponents' drives. With Rondo and Bradley paired, we have arguably the best backcourt in the league. I see Ray coming off the bench, fresh, microwaving a la Vinnie Johnson, as we head into the playoffs.
Of course, there are the questions of chemistry and morale, but I think this move would hurt neither. In recent games, the chemistry has been great and RA is the consummate professional, ready to help his teammates each win another ring in any way possible.

If Ray knew he only had to play for like 20-24 minutes I would not like to be the guy who has to chase him on defense

Any time a player quickly changes from useful sub to impact player, it's really about the same thing as signing a free agent—minus the outlay of cash and the chance that the guy is over the hill.

Avery Bradley has done that, and Greg Stiemsma is at least part way there. So it's not a stretch to say that the Celtics have gained between 1.25 and 1.50 impact players in this season-long war on attrition. Even more vital is the fact that these two guys have not simply duplicated what teammates can do. Avery's unique approach has jump-started the offensive aggression. The unique approaches of both of them have jump-started the defensive intensity. Steamer has also been making some strides in his rebounding, although I wouldn't yet place the improvement at impact level.

Doc's history is one of trying to nip rumors in the bud if they're rumors with no substance. The fact that Doc has given voice to the possibility that Avery could remain a starter after Ray returns strongly suggests that the move is being given much consideration. It's going to be really interesting.

I keep reading a lot of blather about how weak the Celtics bench is. People who make that statement really aren't tuned into what is going on with this team. The fact is that the Celtics started the season with a very deep bench. Right now, half of that bench has been pressed into starters' roles and the other half is injured.

And yet the Celtics have been able to prevail against all comers (so far) with a shortened rotation of eight players. And a key reason is that a major element of bench depth involves the degree to which the bench improves with the passage of time. That has occurred in spades. Even Sasha Pavlovic, while not breaking through in the manner of Steamer and Avery, has proven himself a major defensive stalwart against bigger threes like Lebron. And they still have Quis, who is capable of blending right into an aggressive offensive mode by slashing to the hoop while holding his own defensively. And the bench will hopefully be the beneficiary of two more major contributors with the addition of two of the following three: Ray, Avery, Mickael.

Meanwhile, the energy level of the team has not simply been rejuvenated. It has been rejuvenated within the context of strengthened chemistry. In other words, the energized aggression isn't just a short term thing. The very culture of the team seems to have become more animated for the long haul.

It's unfortunate that the elevation in Avery's play has only recently surfaced as the real deal. I don't know of any other player in the league who is more improved this season.

Sam

Leave it as it is.

Let RA come off the bench perhaps a bit earlier and perhaps for PP rather than AB.

Regardless it opens the door to more flexability and more looks. I can't imagine RA being overly concerned about not starting and you know in a tight game he will be on the floor in the end.

Plus don't let RA come back till he is ready no point in rushing it. Yet another benifit of AB's emergence.

beat

According to Doc, yesterday,

"You can see, moving around, he's just not ready to play. He literally can't play." -- Rivers on Allen.

I'm afraid the question about who starts etc is going to be relevant for a while.

Also, on a parallel track, Pietrus had a grade 3 concussion. He has to wear sunglasses due to photophobia (i.e. he can't handle any light). NOT good.

Currently the Celtics are winning on defense and defense only. To win the title this year you need to look at it this way.

There are a possible max. 28 games to be played in the playoffs if you are to win the title. All you have to do is win 16 to win it all. In a short run post season it is very achievable to do it on defense alone.

Bradley is the key piece in all of this resurgence.

112288

Hi,
I'd say why not. It's working so, why fix it.
--------------
Sorry to hear about MP. I guess he won't come back before the playoffs. And even after that who knows. Tough loss for the Celtics.

AK

Bradley has the benefit of emerging late during the season as a player getting significant minutes. It's common for rookies and other young players who make a splash to fall back to earth once teams have the opportunity to scout them and adjust their game plan for them. A key aspect of any game plan against the Celtics for the past five years is how to deal with Ray Allen, so in one sense, Bradley is benefiting by being the "un-Ray." However, the more teams see Bradley play alongside Rondo (rather than as a sub for Rondo), the more prepared they'll be for him.

The above point would be particularly true in the playoffs, and at this point, setting the lineup should be all about getting the team ready for the playoffs. It doesn't make any sense to start Bradley ahead of Ray for regular season games and then start Ray once the playoffs begin. So it shouldn't be so much about how to get the team playing its best now but more about getting the team ready to play its best in the playoffs. Which guy do you think should start in a playoff matchup against Chicago or Miami? Personally, I tend to think that should be Ray.

But that doesn't minimize the benefit that Bradley's growth can have on the Celtics. He's stepped up big time. He's shown that he can be an impact player whether he starts or comes off the bench, and he's shown that he and Rondo can be an effective pair. One of the biggest benefits Bradley has is the difference in his game compared to Ray because he represents such a change of pace compared to Ray, so having Ray and Bradley share time next to Rondo can be a plus, regardless of who starts.

The Celtics were the first team to show that it isn't that relevant who starts, and in that spirit, whether he actually starts is far less important than the fact that Bradley has developed to the point that we can raise the question.

As for Pietrus, one silver lining of him being out is that he can rest his knee. Just trying to look on the bright side.

Outside

Outside,

You raise a point that once teams figure out Bradley they will devise a plan to counter him. I would say you are correct if.....if they were trying to stop him offensively.

However, Bradley's game comes from his one on one defense which is hard to stop. Bradley likes to try to get other teams to eat up clock on their offensive possession. If teams try to change the way their team brings the ball up, Bradley's won the battle.

112288

112288,

It's even less complicated than the need to win 16 games in the playoffs.

All that's required is to win the last game.

On a more serious note, I'd expect Avery to face many more pick-and-roll/pop situations in an attempt (1) to get him unglued from his man and (2) to force him to switch to a much taller opponent. So, in a sense, the burden of responding to opposing "anti-Avery" tactics may fall more on his teammates in responding to switches than on Avery's shoulders.

Sam

Outside

Personally I think any planning for AB as 112288 mentioned is tough cause how do you prepare to have either your PG or SG smothered. Now if ABwas doing some different things offensively that's another story. During the regular season preparing for a team when there are few to no practice dates just won't work. During the playoffs quite another matter.

Whatever the case it appears the opposition will be having to adjust to us... not the other way around. And has his offensive game develops further adjusting will have to keep up. Perhaps they will allways be playing a bit of catching up adjusting to AB and on the scoreboard as well.


That's my hope.

Just another thought too. In making adjustments during a playoff series just how much can you change your style before you screw up what you do well? Plus having a Coach that can successfully communicate what needs to be done and players willing (and smart enough) to commit to that.

Not a lot of coaches out there that can make this happen and Doc might be the best at it, of course haveing a vetern squad helps.

Hopefully we can dispose of SA next. Beating these good teams has to do wonders for this group moving forward.

beat

Great question to debate.

My guess is Ray's a way off from returning, but will start when he's healthy.

AB is a nice story so far, but has a limited handle and isn't near Ray's status as a shooter and we'll need that outside presence come playoff time. Besides, if his ankle is sound it's not like Ray is limited in his own defensive capabilities.

The other thing to consider is that Bradley has looked good for the Celtics, the team with the 2nd easiest schedule in the league since the All-Star break. If he can maintain this pace as our schedule intensifies the rest of the way, then we can really talk. Miami is as hot-and-cold as they come, so yesterday's game doesn't mean much.

Once other teams have seen Bradley a time or two the new guy surprise will be up. He's gotten to be an excellent defender, and will add to our overall bench strength in certain situations. I would expect him to continue to get fairly big minutes as the first guard off the bench once Ray is healthy.

If Ray's ankle shelves him for the year, Bradley is going to get some big minutes in a split with Pietrus (if Pietrus is healthy!).

Bradley's emergence could be most interesting in that if it lasts at this level he could alter our draft plans or provide part of a bargaining package.

NYCelt

Couple points to ponder

The so called week schedule is based on what the teams records are as to when we play them or some such criteria, if so does it account for Back to Backs... road vs home, injuries for them at the time ( or us) so given all the variables, that in of itself doesn't mean a whole lot. I rather look at HOW we are playing rather than WHO we are playing.

And again Bradley has been seen quite a bit by other teams over the past 10 games (he's averaged over 24 minutes during this time) Certainly there is nothing to figure out offensively as he doesn't have a real good outside game but he slashes without the ball and makes himself available, how does one prepare for that, when you have little to no practice time?

Certainly Miami has taken it on the chin a few times lately but nothing like drubbibng we put to them. When was the last time Wade went up for a slam and ended up on his posterior? Think AB's gotten into Wade's head a little? Perhaps but even that may give him an edge.

Shooting can come and go. We have seen what everyone on here call the best shooter perhaps forever, RA struggle with his shot for stretches. To me defense can be much more consistant and AB provides that consistantly.
Is the threat of an outside shot more important than the threat of a man in your shirt denying you the ball constantly and hounding you like a coon dog in a corn field. (thanks Jeb)

10 games is a pretty good sample in my opinion.
As you and I have both mentioned for now RA is not close to returning so AB is getting even more accustom to the starters.

He's not an outside shooter but he does spread the floor simply by moving which opens up others and if they are swarmed to.... AB can get his layups.
Watched him off the ball quite a lot yeasterday. His man turns his head or takes a step to help he's gone, and he goes to an area where he can make himself visable. Plus he finishes rather well around the rim.

He's good enough ofensively that the opponets just can't take him for granted and really that is all it takes to make it work.

I hope RA gets well soon and is not put out there till he is ready. AB at least affords us that luxury for sure.

(PS Mom is doing really well)

beat

I come from the school that you dont lose your starting role because of an injury.

Even if Ray starts upon his return, the confidence that AB has built isnt going anywhere. And since Rondo is able to play more minutes that the rest of the big 3 - I say Doc takes KG out first...then Ray is next....and he bring in AB and run with Rondo for a while. When Rondo tires, he bring Ray and KG back together and keeps AB at the point etc.

In the playoffs, I do think against some teams, you see more of Bradley - against some you see less. But down the stretch with the game on the line...I still way Ray taking the shot.

Mrkleen

did Wally Pipp go to your school?
He lost his starting job for 2130 games!

beat

Ray Allen is no Wally Pip, Beat....but funny.

Hi,
Also, don't forget that it takes quite some time to work up a "guard Ray Allen" reflex against a player who's not RA. So, AB is still can get a pass from RR, KG or PP a step ahead of his defender.

AK

Wally Pipp...the most costly headache ever in sports?

Valid points by both beat and Kleen IMHO.

However I still think we're looking at a limited sample against a string of pretty weak teams. I can't get too excited about Miami because they crash and burn regularly, and against some pretty watered-down opponents. Kudos to Bradley in that Wade's big advantage is although he's a fairly short guard, he is long (reach plus height considered), but Wade has his up-and-down games too. After Bradley's big block on Wade, DWade apparently told Bradley "you looked like me on that play." Sometimes an attempt to get in your opponent's head can be very subtle.

Don't get me wrong, I'm very happy to see what we're getting from AB; I just think it's way too soon and not enough of a test to judge.

Let's put it this way; I didn't think he would still be with the team by now. I would look forward to being even more wrong.

Regards

(beat; very glad to hear your Mom is doing nicely)

since ab has been in the starting lineup the defense had been better and the tempo on offense had been noticeably quicker.

We have lamented over not getting enough offense from the bench. Who better to anchor that offense than Ray.

It is sometimes difficult to understand the dynamics of how one player can change the footprint of a team in the midst of transition.

The word is out Avery is a beast on d and will cut you to pieces if you don't pay close attention.

Ray should do the Celtics a favor and volunteer for bench duty.

Dboss

NESN poll.. 63% think Bradley should remain in lineup.

This is as good a reason as to be grateful that we are not Doc. Of course, the flip side is that I'd gladly trade my income for half of Doc's.

There seem to be flip side for every opinion on this one. For example, it's true that, the more they learn of Avery (in person or in scouting reports), the better prepared they'll be to take him down a peg or two. On the other side of the coin, the more other teams learn about Avery, the more they may be likely to be looking over their shoulders because he's so unpredictable. Sort of like Bill Russell's "Invisible Man" rule that says the threat of an action may often be as effective as the action itself.

There's no question that Ray Allen's perimeter shooting spreads the floor for the Celtics. However, they seem to be spreading the floor just as well by stationing KG and Bass 18-20 feet from the basket, letting Bradley tightrope along the baseline, and freeing Rondo and Pierce to attend to the creative aspects of the game.

While I agree with Mrkleen that players seldom lose their jobs through injury, any notion about replacing Ray with Avery in the starting lineup would really hark back to Ray's performances prior to his injury. It was my impression that Ray had difficulty getting his bearings early in games—the exact time when Avery may possibly be of greatest value in helping the Celtics get out to early leads. I'd like to see at least an experiment in which Avery starts, then Ray and Avery alternate shifts (subject to matchups) and Ray usually finishes games.

I could also see KG, Pierce, Ray, Avery and Rondo forming a small ball corps that specializes in defensive disruption and coming from behind.

Whatever Doc decides to do, the Celtics now have eight good players who are used to one another and are capable of bringing out the best in one another.

Sam

If nothing else, the Celtics have helped ab become part of the rotation.

If Ray returns to his starter position, that's fine. Just nice to know we have a gifted on the ball defender who has the ability to impact the game.dboss

Unmentioned in this is that the Celtics are 5-0 since Bradley took over the starting SG slot from Ray Allen.

Some of that is a seamless, chemical integration into the starting unit as well as a nice backfill by Dooling off the bench in Bradley's place.

bob

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I know I can rely a little too heavily on stats, but there are some stats are more revealing than others, especially in a sport as tightly integrated as basketball.

Check out the top 5-man units on 82games.com.

The unit of Rondo/Bradley/Pierce/Bass/Garnett, the current starting 5, is #3 in total minutes played together (making it a significant cross-sample). They have the highest +/- of any other 5 man unit and, as of the update date, have a 4-0 winning record (I think they're 5-1 now, with the injury of Pietrus in the Philly game).

The unit with Rondo/Allen/Pierce/Bass/Garnett, the "normal" starting 5, is #1 in minutes played together (no surprise there) and has a weaker offense, weaker defense, lower +/-, worse winning %.

A pretty convincing argument that says our eyes aren't lying to us. The Celtics have been playing a smoother, more prolific and efficient offense and ferocious defense since Allen went down and Bradley stepped in.

http://www.82games.com/1112/1112BOS2.HTM

bob

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