Summer Forecast: Focus on JET

ESPNBOSTON.COM

By Chris Forsberg

As this year's Summer Forecast series rolls into Week 2, we shift the focus to predictions on how some of the Celtics key players will perform next season. Call it Expectations Week (yeah, we know, not nearly as cool as Shark Week).

SUMMER FORECAST

For three weeks in August we'll break up the summer doldrums by trying to predict exactly how the 2012-13 season will play out for the Boston Celtics.

We tip it off with maybe the team's biggest offseason acquisition: Jason Terry. The 13-year veteran, inked for three seasons utilizing the full value of the midlevel exception, gracefully transitioned to a reserve role during his time in Dallas and thrived (averaging at least 15.1 points per game in each of those seasons and winning the league's sixth man award in 2009). Terry also brings eight seasons of playoff experience, playing a crucial role in the Mavericks' 2011 title run.

My expectations? Terry should emerge as the no-conscious bench scorer that the Celtics have so desperately craved since winning their own title in 2008. That's a bolder prediction than you might initially think. There's a pattern here where Boston has struggled to find offensive consistency off its bench. Each year, the preseason buzz is about how this is the reserve cast that finally pushes Boston over the top. And, invariably, the underproduction of the bench is pegged as one of the reasons for Boston's inability to achieve its ultimate goal in recent seasons.

The Celtics have tried all sorts of iterations, including last year when they went with characters over pure talent. Injuries didn't help matters as the team lost reserves like Jeff Green, Chris Wilcox, and Jermaine O'Neal during the season, but there's renewed hope this offseason that Boston has cobbled together the sort of depth that might distinguish it from its chief rivals.

That confidence comes in large part from Terry, who oozes it.

Accepting that sixth man role takes a special breed, and Terry embraces it. While some come to Boston and walk on eggshells because of the presence of a veteran core, Terry won't be overwhelmed after his time in Dallas.

Let's face it, here's a guy that got a tattoo of the Celtics logo spinning the Larry O'Brien trophy this past weekend, and he hasn't even put on his new No. 4 jersey yet. This is almost certainly the JET's last flight and he seems pretty confident about his chances of adding some additional title hardware before his final descent.

There's a lot to like about his game beyond the obvious. He's a combo guard who can handle the ball (and create his own offense that way). That affords Boston the luxury of not having to carry a pure backup ball-handler, as the likes of Terry and Keyon Dooling can run the offense when Rondo's on the bench. His 3-point shooting should ease the loss of Ray Allen. And Terry is insanely durable, while the Celtics as a whole has been anything but over the last four years.

Read on for our panel predictions.


Greg Payne, ESPN Boston

I expect Terry to deliver something that's eluded Boston for the greater part of the last five seasons: bench consistency. Finally (finally!) the Celtics have someone who embraces and prides himself on the sixth-man role and, even if he isn't a spring chicken anymore, Terry won't have any trouble filling it up off the bench. He'll probably be more of a combo guard than anything, as I envision him bringing the ball up and scoring off the dribble, or dishing early in the offense and being set up for open looks later in the shot clock. He'll knock down a boatload of 3-pointers, and he'll be good enough in the clutch to make everyone miss Ray Allen that much less. But that's just on-the-court stuff. Off the floor, he'll be a veteran leader and a great voice in the locker room (he and Keyon Dooling need a radio show or a podcast or something). Having won a championship, he'll only add to the never-say-die attitude we've seen out of this group in recent seasons, particularly last year.


Brian Robb, CelticsHub

I expect offensive consistency and creativity off the bench. Both have been foreign concepts for the Celtics reserves over the past few seasons, as the team’s overall offensive output has steadily decreased largely due to a lack of serviceable production from the second unit. The arrival of Terry should change that. The former Maverick played the offensive-sparkplug role to perfection in Dallas, using his improvisation and shooting ability to average 15-plus points per game for the past six seasons. It’s a different supporting cast in Boston, but a revamped Celtics bench, anchored by Terry, should excel as a unit, before the sixth man joins the starters for crunch time most games. Additionally, I expect a full healthy season from the 6-foot-2 guard, who has missed a mere 28 games in his 13-year NBA career, bringing some reliability for Doc Rivers to turn to off the pine. Perhaps most importantly, though, Terry gives Doc another new option at the end of games now in isolation plays besides Paul Pierce. With this additional wrinkle, unpredictability should return to the C's offense late in contests for the first time in a long time.


Tom Westerholm, Celtics Town

One change that Celtics fans will notice with Terry will be in the type of cuts he utilizes to get open. The majority of Ray Allen's 3-point attempts came off long, elaborate cross-court movements involving several screens. Terry played differently, but still effectively, in Dallas. Where most of Allen's 3-point attempts were thought-out and premeditated, Terry's are often more of a sneak-attack. While a play develops and the ball-handler drives to the basket, Terry stands on the right wing and makes his way slowly to one side, lulling his defender into a false sense of security before taking two quick steps along the 3-point line and finding himself open. Rajon Rondo, with his driving skills and extremely high basketball IQ, is uniquely suited to this kind of trickery and should be able to capitalize on Terry's on-court spontaneity.

112288

I experienced the thrill and agony of watching Terry end a 10 game Celtics win streak February 10, 2011 at the Garden. Thrill because I was in the 4th row. Agony because Terry stole the game from us. I was reminded of the line from Butch Cassidy - "Who are those guys?" only it was "Who is this guy?" He devastated our D with his moves and shots. 101-97 final score. Terry played 35 minutes off the bench; scored 17 points on 7-15 shooting and chipped in 2 steals and 2 assists. Ray was 9-18 and 24 points. 1 assist, no steals. Pretty evenly matched, but Terry made his own shot and played better D. I took my son and daughter-in-law to the game. She was 6.5 months pregnant at the time. Now the Celts are in my grandson's blood.

Hi,
Speaking about back-court on the 2nd unit. I wonder if JT's going to be more of a PG. If not - it's going to be PG by committee, isn't it? Of course, there's KD....

AK

There once was a Celtics team (actually 13 of them) that truly expected to win. Not hoped to win....EXPECTED to win. Anything else was considered akin to a clerical error.

Since that time, some great Celtics teams have won some great championships. They've had the requisite intensity and talent to be champions. But I've never again sensed the feeling of EXPECTING to win on a consistent basis. This kind of pronouncement, IF it's not just hope masquerading as expectation, has the kind of aura that I recall from half a century ago. IF it's REALLY expectation, I can't wait for it to permeate the roster because then we could see something truly special.

Sam

One thing missing from all this great info on JET

UofA, UofA, UofA

it is rare that a guard is able to be really effective at the point and the 2.

I watched Terry for years down here in Atlanta and he has ice water in his veins.

The pairing of the guards will be a nightmare for teams to figure out.

KC, Sam, Frank and Bob were 4 outstanding guards that played together.

I can not recall a time since then that the Celtics had this level of depth on the team.

That group played a lot of years together and in the 59-60 season the Celtics averaged almost 125 PPG. KC and Sam were still young pups at the time. 7 players averaged double figures.

Our group of guards are younger than they were so let the fast breaks begin!

P.S. Bill Sharman was on that team too. how could i leave him out. If the Celtics could play with that many guards perhaps my concerns about a glut at guard is suspect.

dboss

Just excited to be playing with a group of guys that understand (not just how) to play the game, but the way they play the game."

love this line!!

beat