Summer forecast: Expectations for Green

sinus,

Thanks for posting this.

I said, on earlier threads, that the absence of a finished contract was fishy. Worcester pointed out that they might be waiting to see some final medical results. Reminded of this I felt better about the lack of closure. Nobody will offer Green the money Danny is, so he's not going to run away from the altar. The question is, therefore, is he ready to go?

The comment made about how Jeff Green never enters KG's "bar fight mode" is true. He needs to get meaner and more aggressive. If that means fighting KG for a rebound, do it. If there's one thing I'd like to see change about Jeff Green's game, this is it.

We do need him to step up. One of the editorialists said that he needs to produce 15-17 points off the bench consistently. Is that reasonable? He averaged about 15ppg/36 minutes for his career, and he wants that many playing maybe 25-27? Jason Terry, who is a shooter first, second and third, only averaged 17ppg/36 minutes.

Consistency is the key. We need him to come in and deliver a solid, albeit perhaps not spectacular, performance night-in-and-night-out. Rebound like the ball is one of his children falling out of the sky. Run like the Devil's on his heels. Hit his open shots, however many or few he gets. Set picks for Terry and Lee and smile at the opponent's reaction to the contact. If he does those things we should be good.

bob

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The longer Green goes unsigned, the less likely I feel he'll be a part of and more likely apart from the Celtics this coming year.

MD!

It may be difficult for Green to acquire newfound levels of aggressiveness so soon after being a heart patient. (That sort of thing has to weigh on a person's mind.) Green's lack of aggressivness could very well be the best reason to keep Joseph on the 15-man roster but not send him to the D League. With the ascension of Avery Bradley serving as a reminder that Doc's not afraid to play young guys, I'm hoping Kris will get plenty of opportunity to nip at Jeff's heels during practice.

Sam

Summer Forecast: Expectations for Green

By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com

Jeff Green will be back, but will he be better than ever?
Let’s start with the obvious here: Jeff Green (still) isn’t formally a member of the Boston Celtics. Yes, his deal has been termed imminent since early July and, yes, a month later, there’s still wrinkles to be ironed out.

SUMMER FORECAST

For three weeks in August we'll break up the summer doldrums by trying to predict exactly how the 2012-13 season will play out for the Boston Celtics.

What exactly those hurdles are isn’t clear, but those close to the situation have hinted that its simply contract language, something that’s slightly more difficult after Green missed all of last season due to a heart ailment.

That said, neither the Celtics nor Green’s camp have given any reason to believe that a deal won’t eventually be consummated -- and neither seems in a particular rush to finish it up. Green attended an introductory press conference last month and hasn’t shied away from talking about his excitement to play for the Celtics next season.

But here’s one reason his contract is truly noteworthy: Whenever this deal is finalized, it’s expected to be the biggest total payday the Celtics hand out this offseason with a reported four-year pact at a value of upwards of $9 million per season. With a deal like that, Boston is essentially committing to Green as a core member of their future (a four-year deal would run longer than even the three years remaining on Rajon Rondo's current deal).

In the glimpse we got at the end of the 2010-11 season, Green proved to be exactly the player he was with Oklahoma City (look at his stats per 36 minutes, they are nearly identical). To some, that wasn’t good enough. The question is whether he’s capable of more, and whether having a strong supporting cast will allow him to flourish in Boston.

Our expectations? Jason Terry may have the sixth man tag, but Green absolutely must be the most important supplementary piece to Boston’s core. Even coming off the bench, he must emerge as a consistent contributor, the type that can help carry Boston when veterans like Paul Pierce struggle.

The Celtics have to figure out how to properly harness his versatility, exploiting his size against smaller 3s and (carefully) moving him to the 4 in smaller lineups (Green has struggled mightily against post-up 4s, but can blanket smaller wings). Boston needs to find lineups that bring out the most in his skill set. But ultimately it's on Green to show he's capable of more than we saw in that brief post-trade glimpse.

The encouraging side is that Green will only turn 26 next month. Even after sitting out last season, he's still got four years of experience under his belt (two playoff trips) and he's still young enough to make another leap. The Celtics are hoping he can blossom into a true impact player.

What we'd like to see: More aggression all over the court. He needs to be a stronger rebounder, a more tenacious defender, and he needs to be on full tilt when running in transition. You can see the ability to be a game-changer and, now that he's healthy, Green needs to show it on the floor.

Read on to see our panel predictions.


Greg Payne, ESPN Boston

All indications from Green and everyone else associated with him (his agent, Danny Ainge, etc.) are that he's poised to return better than before, and the Celtics will need that to be true. Maybe it was unfair to really critique Green's game for the half season he was initially here for prior to his heart ailment. Whatever the case, the C's need him to be a consistent scorer, rebounder, and quality defender off the bench. It's as simple as that. I don't know if there's any sort of "leap" for Green to still make, but he has to cement himself as a player Boston can rely upon. That's the most important thing, bottom line. Right now he's the only real backup the team has for Paul Pierce, and I'd be willing to bet Doc Rivers will want to scale back Pierce's minutes a bit this season, which will only put a brighter spotlight on Green. No one can doubt Green's natural abilities and physical gifts -- the Celtics just need those things to translate to points, rebounds, and, most importantly, wins. If Green can do that, not only will he be one of the better backup small forwards in the league, but he'll team with the likes of Jason Terry and Chris Wilcox to comprise a pretty formidable second unit.


Brendan Jackson, CelticsHub

In an ideal world, flipping Kendrick Perkins for Jeff Green would have gone down as Danny Ainge's fourth greatest achievement as a GM, behind the Kevin Garnett/Ray Allen offseason, making the draft-night trade for Rajon Rondo, and signing Jermaine O'Neal for two years at the full mid-level exception (OK, one of those moves was not good). Unfortunately, Green struggled to gel with the Celtics at the end of 2011 and missed last season after undergoing surgery for an aortic aneurysm. The hope this season is that the Celtics have a young, athletic small forward to back up Paul Pierce. I'm here to temper those expectations. The truth is that Green has never been particular effective at playing the small forward position. In Green's last two full seasons, he posted a PER lower than league average for small forwards (albeit in limited minutes). The good news is that Green has also limited his small forward opponent's production to a PER around league average. At best, the increase in minutes at the small forward position will prove that Green was originally miscast as an undersized power forward. At worst, he'll be an athletic wing defender able to run with Rajon Rondo. I expect he'll be somewhere in the middle.


Chuck McKenney, Red’s Army

I'm expecting a lot from Green and that's because Danny Ainge seemingly outbid the entire NBA with the reported four-year contract valued somewhere around $32-36 million. I'm begging anyone to show me a rumor that involved another team willing to give Green anything close to the deal he's supposed to sign in Boston. Let's move on to the facts. Green struggled mightily in the 26 games he played for Boston in 2011. He was passive and out of sync. Last season was supposed to be his redemption, but he was forced to have heart surgery. Fortunately, all signs point to Green being heart healthy this year. There might be some rust, but he'll shake it off in camp. For the Celtics to make another deep playoff run, Green must contribute consistent offense (15-17 points per game) off the bench. I think he can do that. The real questions about Green come in the next two to three years -- as Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett fade, is Green capable of carrying the torch? Yikes.


Jay King, Celtics Town

My first expectation, and the only one in which I'm confident, is that Green will one day officially sign with the Boston Celtics. From there, my expectations for the 6-foot-9 forward become a dizzying combination of hopes, fears, doubts, underwhelming advanced statistics and impressive dreams. Green possesses the talent, skill and athletic makeup to become Boston's small forward of the future. He could blossom into a franchise cornerstone capable of running with Rajon Rondo, scoring from inside or out, and defending two or three positions. The problem is that he's never actually produced at a level deserving of his reported (and rumored, and one day maybe even official) contract. Green rarely, if ever, enters Kevin Garnett's patented "bar fight mode" and he plays with all the aggression of a monk. Sadly enough, Green's presence on the court has a troubling history of making his teams worse. That doesn't mean he's hopeless. At the very least, the Georgetown product provides the Celtics with an athletic reserve who can fill a number of different roles depending on what the team needs. He's capable, perhaps, of much more. That "perhaps" could haunt him for the duration of his time in Boston or it could vanish into a cloud of awesomeness. I vote for the latter.

112288

So let me get this straight. The "pundits" want Jeff Green to contribute 15-17 ppg off the bench and expect JET to contribute his usual 15 ppg. Wilcox should be expected to break away from his defender for at least 6 ppg on dunks alone. Lee should produce at least his career average of 10 ppg. And I think people would pretty shocked if Sullinger couldn't contribute at least 4 ppg.

So I'm happy to be the first to announce that, once Avery Bradley is back and if he starts, the Celtics bench should score something on the order of 50-52 ppg this season. In a combined mpg of what—80, or 16 per bench player?—while the starters play the remaining 160 mpg (or 32 per starter).

Here's an idea. Why not play each bench guy 30 mpg, totaling 150 mpg between them and (by extrapolation) producing 94 ppg? Then each starter will only have to play 18 mpg and score two or three points apiece to get the team over the century mark; and guys like KG and Paul Pierce can play until they're 80 years old—or maybe even trotted out onto the court after they've gone to their eternal reward.

I mean, if the scribes are going to be unrealistic, let's go for it and be TOTALLY unrealistic. Do these guys own calculators? Or even 10 fingers and 10 toes apiece? I always thought fantasy basketball was a guessing game played by fans. I never realized that it is the national sport of the media.

Here's a tip, media guys. Just a little secret between you and me. You're projecting your expectations from at least three guys (Green, JET and Lee) largely based on what they produced for other teams. When you put the three of them together on the court (along with a couple of lesser scorers) for 16-22 mpg apiece, there will only be one ball; and odds are that they won't all duplicate nearly what they scored elsewhere on a nightly basis.

I'm as enthusiastic as anyone else about the Celtics of 2012-13. But some of these media people need to get a grip on themselves—especially when their pronouncements can ultimately create undue pressure on the players. (And yes, the players are well aware of what's written and said about them in the media.)

Sam

sam wrote:It may be difficult for Green to acquire newfound levels of aggressiveness so soon after being a heart patient. (That sort of thing has to weigh on a person's mind.) Green's lack of aggressivness could very well be the best reason to keep Joseph on the 15-man roster but not send him to the D League. With the ascension of Avery Bradley serving as a reminder that Doc's not afraid to play young guys, I'm hoping Kris will get plenty of opportunity to nip at Jeff's heels during practice.

Sam

sam,

According to Green's agent, David Falk, JG's health issues have been a "liberating experience" for him. He said that Jeff Green now feels like being unselfish is not in his best interests, due to the unpredictability of life. Well, being selfish with his shooting and rebounding might just be what we need.

I also have to say, I cannot remember you ever being as high on an unproven, untested player like you seem to be with Kris Joseph. You have been banging his drum nonstop since the first game of Orlando summer league. Everybody who watched those games fell in love with Joseph, but you have been particularly vocal about him making the team, staying with the team, getting minutes with the team. You obviously see something in him you haven't seen in other new players. It's good to see an old war horse like you getting excited about a young colt like this.

bob

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Thanks, Bob. I'm almost as excited about Christmas as I have been about Joseph. I like to think I'm usually motivate by rational thinking, and my thought process is as follows:

It's no secret that I feel a smooth mid-range shooter/penetrator was the second most player in the Russell era glories. Not one who bulled his way inside, but one who got in there by finesse and, if that didn't work, popped very reliably (considering typical field goal percentage of the time) from mid range.

In recent years, Paul Pierce has been about the closest the Celtics have come to that kind of player. And he also added the dimension of three-point shooting. But much of his penetration has been a function of strength rather than finesse. And, as his skills have slowly diminished, he's not all that much of a slasher any longer; it's become cause for celebration when he flashes one of his vintage moves to get to the rim.

I see each of these guys (Joseph and Christmas) as having great potential to be blends of penetration ability and mid-range (and longer) shooting. Joseph, in particular, seems to have that smooth unhurried penetration style as well as pretty good passing ability. Frankly, I'm not sure I've seen that type of smoothness since the days of Sam—and Joseph's working from a physically bigger position than Sam did.

I don't expect either Joseph or Christmas to make the rotation, at least not early in the season. They could even wind up in the DL. But I've learned to trust what I have witnessed as proof that it can be possible on an ongoing basis; and the summer leagues showed me skills of both Joseph and Christmas that transcended the quality of the competition.

It's a little more natural to be excited about Sullinger because of his pedigree and also what he showed this summer. He's more the bulling type of penetrator, and I can picture him as the heir apparent to Pierce in terms of getting to the rim largely on the basis of strength. (And, yes, I know he'll have to perfect some moves around the hoop to avoid being blocked frequently.) He also possesses a decent outside shooting game, especially for a PF.

In short, I feel that, while nothing is guaranteed, these three guys are not just interesting. Each has the ability to provide what has become a missing ingredient—in other words to become an impact player—with the Celtics.

What excites me most about the 2012-13 team is not the fact that they have a lot of good players but, rather, the fact that they have a plethora of skills in depth. That fact will hopefully make their offense more multi-faceted, less predictable and more effective than it has been—possibly since the 1980s.

War horse, huh? Just call me "Citation" (my personal fave).

One final note: I hope no one will be sufficiently foolish and/or shallow to suggest that I'm equating the talents of Joseph and/or Christmas to those of Sam Jones. I'm talking about tendencies, not achievements.

Sam

sam wrote:Thanks, Bob. I'm almost as excited about Christmas as I have been about Joseph. I like to think I'm usually motivate by rational thinking, and my thought process is as follows:

It's no secret that I feel a smooth mid-range shooter/penetrator was the second most player in the Russell era glories. Not one who bulled his way inside, but one who got in there by finesse and, if that didn't work, popped very reliably (considering typical field goal percentage of the time) from mid range.

In recent years, Paul Pierce has been about the closest the Celtics have come to that kind of player. And he also added the dimension of three-point shooting. But much of his penetration has been a function of strength rather than finesse. And, as his skills have slowly diminished, he's not all that much of a slasher any longer; it's become cause for celebration when he flashes one of his vintage moves to get to the rim.

I see each of these guys (Joseph and Christmas) as having great potential to be blends of penetration ability and mid-range (and longer) shooting. Joseph, in particular, seems to have that smooth unhurried penetration style as well as pretty good passing ability. Frankly, I'm not sure I've seen that type of smoothness since the days of Sam—and Joseph's working from a physically bigger position than Sam did.

I don't expect either Joseph or Christmas to make the rotation, at least not early in the season. They could even wind up in the DL. But I've learned to trust what I have witnessed as proof that it can be possible on an ongoing basis; and the summer leagues showed me skills of both Joseph and Christmas that transcended the quality of the competition.

It's a little more natural to be excited about Sullinger because of his pedigree and also what he showed this summer. He's more the bulling type of penetrator, and I can picture him as the heir apparent to Pierce in terms of getting to the rim largely on the basis of strength. (And, yes, I know he'll have to perfect some moves around the hoop to avoid being blocked frequently.) He also possesses a decent outside shooting game, especially for a PF.

In short, I feel that, while nothing is guaranteed, these three guys are not just interesting. Each has the ability to provide what has become a missing ingredient—in other words to become an impact player—with the Celtics.

What excites me most about the 2012-13 team is not the fact that they have a lot of good players but, rather, the fact that they have a plethora of skills in depth. That fact will hopefully make their offense more multi-faceted, less predictable and more effective than it has been—possibly since the 1980s.

War horse, huh? Just call me "Citation" (my personal fave).

One final note: I hope no one will be sufficiently foolish and/or shallow to suggest that I'm equating the talents of Joseph and/or Christmas to those of Sam Jones. I'm talking about tendencies, not achievements.

Sam

Rookies will tell you that the NBA game is bigger, stronger and faster than they're used to. This makes sense, given that every player in the NBA was the best player anybody had seen at their previous level. Now, they're the norm. You see rookies rushing around like chickens with their heads cut off, trying to go faster and keep up. Then, after enough experience and time, you sometimes see the "click" in their heads and they slow down. That happened with Pierce after Doc got here. Before, with Walker, he was all about going fast and then he slowed down and became more effective. The game slowed down for him. Instead of everybody moving fast, they all looked like they were moving slowly to him. I commented repeatedly during the Game On threads about how silky smooth Joseph looked. A man who went to where he wanted to go and do what he wanted to do without having to scurry to get there and then rush to finish. That's a veteran's mentality and mindset. There was an article written, and posted somewhere on this board (probably in the Joseph thread) by his former coaches about how impassive he is. A lot of rookies are like 6 month old Great Danes, big dogs not in full control of their bodies and certainly not in control of their emotions or discipline but happy as hell to be there and part of the family, sometimes causing more damage than good with their uncontrolled exuberance (I had a lab that was famous for sweeping coffee tables clean with her tail). Joseph's on-court demeanor was different, more "workman-like".

Xmas showed something too. I loved when, even with the shorter Gibson and Smith on the floor with him, he demanded the ball so he could run the offense. One of my bitches with Dooling is that he didn't demand the ball when he was playing point. What I like about Dooling is his mature, veteran locker room presence. Reverend Dooling. If he can become a mentor to the headstrong, mercurial Rajon Rondo imagine the good he can do for a player who is eager to listen and learn like Xmas.

bob

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Amen!

Now that we're waxing theological, consider this. If Jesus and his twelve disciples were an NBA team, who would they add to fill out their 15 man roster? What position would Jesus play? What kind of stats would he put up? Please, no allusions to the cross over dribble. Who would play the other positions? Luke sounds like the name of a center to me.

W,

For that matter, which of the 13 would be deactivated for a given game? Would Judas become the subject of the world's first conspiracy theory? And then there's the matter of the coach. Would that qualify as the world's first no-brainer? I think I'll stop before a lightning bolt hits me.

Sam

The coach? That makes me laugh!

worcester wrote:Now that we're waxing theological, consider this. If Jesus and his twelve disciples were an NBA team, who would they add to fill out their 15 man roster? What position would Jesus play? What kind of stats would he put up? Please, no allusions to the cross over dribble. Who would play the other positions? Luke sounds like the name of a center to me.

actualy luke wasnt one of the 12...

Jesus Owner/gm/coach/ high flying pg point guard
then there was peter & andrew (brothers) james and john (also brothers) these guys were all fishermen, a prety tough job back in the day, so im expecting them to maybe be ur bulker fellas.. so ur Bigs

Phill (phillip) and bart (bartholomew)

Judas (also called Thaddaeus, or Thad for short) who wasnt the same guy who betrayed Jesus, then u got ray all... i mean Judas Iscariot, Simon, doudting thomas, and james less

and then theres matty (better known as matthew)

latter Matthias replaced Ray allen,, i mean Judas Iscariotas one of the 12, then later Saul of Tarsus got promoted to an apostle as well..

so there you got 15..

if ya want a replacement for Ray, Luke, Mark, barnabas, and the other james- who wrote the book of james and might have been jesus Brother could all be possibilities

What role would Mary Magdelene have played on the team? Please don't say "groupie".

bob

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bobheckler wrote:What role would Mary Magdelene have played on the team? Please don't say "groupie".

bob

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dancer...


oh yeah, Luke was a doctor, so like, he'd be the teams trainer...