What are Reasonable Expectations for the Celtics' Jeff Green?

I'm posting this article that was in today's Boston Globe not because it really says anything new (the gist is that we can expect inconsistency, which I believe we already know). But perhaps an article like this can stimulate some thoughts that no one has previously expressed on this site. Moreover, the article appears to be one more endorsement of the idea of trading Jeff. What can I say? It's a slow news day!

Sam

What are reasonable expectations for the Celtics’ Jeff Green?
Posted by Adam Kaufman February 8, 2014 04:28 PM

Sixth-year NBA forward Jeff Green is averaging 16.3 points and 5.0 rebounds per game in his third season in Boston. The Celtics have played 51 games and Green’s started them all.

He’s 27, incredibly durable (save for a season lost to heart surgery), a decent shooter, remarkably athletic, and he leads his team in scoring.

Green’s also arguably on the top of the fans’ Least Favorite list.

Sometimes the stats don’t matter. The eye-test always does.

Green’s game has been compared to that of Jekyll and Hyde, if the latter had been real or a baller. The swingman is the poster boy for inconsistency.

In his last three games – all Celtics wins over mediocre competition from Orlando, Philadelphia, and Sacramento after a stretch of 19 losses in 22 contests – Green’s point-totals read like something you’d see from an immensely talented rookie.

He kicked off the month with 8 points on 2-of-13 shooting versus the Magic, followed that up with a 36-point effort at the Sixers on 11-of-18 shooting, and then managed 17 points on 6-of-20 shooting against the Kings.

Want to know what to expect from Green on a given night? Join the club. He couldn’t even tell you within a given game.

Probed by 98.5 The Sports Hub’s “Toucher and Rich” program in his weekly chat on Thursday morning, C’s president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said of Green’s lack of consistency, “Other than the Lebrons [LeBron James] and the Kevin Durants of the world, and Paul George, you really don’t get consistently 25, 30-plus points per night.”

Who’s asking for that?

The most casual basketball fans know Green isn’t James, Durant, George, or Carmelo Anthony. He’s not even Rudy Gay.

Whether or not he’s capable of being such a dynamic scorer is another story, given his apparent potential when he’s feeling particularly aggressive. He’s reached the 25-point mark on six occasions.

“Most players don’t ever score 36 points in a game and Jeff’s had two in the last couple weeks, 36 and 39,” Ainge continued. “I think that’s just how Jeff is. He’s a very good player. He’s not a superstar player where we expect for him to do that.”

It’s not about the frequency of Green’s big nights. It wouldn’t matter if he never scored 30 points in a game again. It’s about being a reliable contributor, which he’s really never been in his career. After that 39-point game against the Wizards on Jan. 22, it took four contests to total his next 39.

The fact is Green’s complete efforts are very rare and typically come against bad teams. It’s all too often he finishes in single-digits in scoring, something that’s happened nine times, or in nearly 18 percent of his games this season. Heck, he only attempts 13.5 shots a night. Those aforementioned stars take 17 or more.

While it’d be preferable Green average nearly 20 points a game, 16.3 would be fine if it was even the least bit steady. It would have been nice to effectively lean on him as a top option in the absence of Rajon Rondo, or now when both Rondo and Avery Bradley enjoy nights off to rest and recover.

That is a reasonable expectation for Green, not superstardom or even regular stardom; just above-average and dependable contributions. Physically, he has the talent to achieve it. Mentally, there’s something missing.

Generally speaking, the 6’9” forward isn’t the ‘jump on my shoulders and I’ll lead the way’ kind of player. At this stage of his career, it’s overly apparent this is who Green is. He isn’t going to suddenly start cutting to the basket more frequently, where he’s most effective, or regularly put up more shots. Some nights, he’s content to just hang out around the arc.

As it goes, one day fans are left in awe of Green’s jaw-dropping finesse. The next several, they’re just scratching their heads wondering if that other performance really happened.

“I understand it because I think expectations aren’t right,” Ainge said of fans’ frustrations with Green, before defending his player’s four-year, $36 million contract that expires in 2016. “Well, $9 million, that’s half of a max contract. Jeff has given us 16 or 17 points a game on a very efficient overall year he’s having. I think that’s what people should expect. Jeff’s not gonna be the guy that’s gonna carry us every single night, and we don’t have that guy that does that, other than Rondo when he gets back to being 100 percent.”

Finally, a breath of fresh air.

There was a point when members of the organization spoke glowingly of Green. We were led to believe he had the potential to be the next Paul Pierce. If there was ever any shred of optimism in that statement, the ship has sailed.

Green failed to be the guy on any sort of regular basis before Rondo’s return, and he certainly won’t emerge as such with Rondo back. Maybe every once in a while, but far from every night.

The NBA trade deadline is rapidly approaching. Phones will be more active in Ainge’s office between now and Feb. 20 than any night Green’s ever had on the floor in his career. Teams will ask about Rondo and Jared Sullinger, perhaps Brandon Bass and Kris Humphries.

But, Green? It’s tough to say what his market is or if he’s viewed as a viable contributor on a contender. One thing should be clear, though: No matter what the Celtics say, it’s not a question of whether they want to trade him; it’s whether they can for better than 50 cents on the dollar.

Follow me on Twitter at @AdamMKaufman

Steve,

Be careful what you wish for.

There's a hell of a lot more to basketball than just scoring.

This author failed to mention that Green's defensive intensity has elevated the past few games and has been otherwise solid all season.

It also lacks mention that Jeff has been playing noticeably more aggressive on the offensive end. Sure, he won't hit every shot, but he's demanded the ball more and is getting to the line, just like pretty much everyone here thought he should be doing.

This leads me to two conclusions:

1. A broad swath of sports analysts and writers don't actually watch the games nor the players they are critiquing, they just look up a box score on ESPN.

-and-

2. Said analysts/pundits don't understand the game of basketball beyond said statistics.



KJ

I am pretty much over defending Jeff Green - and not because I have given up on him, but because I have given up on the ability for basketball writers and most basketball fans in this city to pull their heads out of their collective asses long enough to understand how unrealistic the expectations they have placed on Jeff Green are.

Danny Ainge said it perfectly in this quote:

“I understand it because I think expectations aren’t right,” Ainge said of fans’ frustrations with Green, before defending his player’s four-year, $36 million contract that expires in 2016. “Well, $9 million, that’s half of a max contract. Jeff has given us 16 or 17 points a game on a very efficient overall year he’s having. I think that’s what people should expect. ”

I have posted this list many times before out here - but HERE are the players in the NBA who are making around the same amount as Jeff Green:


Mehmet Okur, C        Brooklyn Nets            $10,890,000
JaVale McGee, C         Denver Nuggets        $10,750,000
Danilo Gallinari, SF    Denver Nuggets        $10,146,925
Gerald Wallace, SF     Boston Celtics            $10,105,855
Tiago Splitter, C         San Antonio Spurs    $10,000,000
Shawn Marion, SF     Dallas Mavericks       $9,316,796
Steve Nash, PG           Los Angeles Lakers    $9,300,500
Anderson Varejao, C Cleveland Cavaliers  $9,036,364
Andris Biedrins, C     Utah Jazz        $9,000,000
Kendrick Perkins, C  Oklahoma City Thunder       $8,727,437
Jeff Green, SF Boston Celtics            $8,700,000
Mike Conley, PG         Memphis Grizzlies     $8,600,001
Charlie Villanueva, PF           Detroit Pistons           $8,580,000
Rodney Stuckey, SG   Detroit Pistons           $8,500,000
Ryan Anderson, PF    New Orleans Pelicans           $8,308,500
Marcus Thornton, SG            Sacramento Kings     $8,050,000

You tell me who on this list is a better player than Jeff Green?

Boston sports fans are looking for another Paul Pierce (one of the 5 best players in Celtics history) and anything less is unacceptable.  This is not only short sighted but woefully ignorant of how hard it is to find that kind of franchise player.

If the Celtics are going to be a contender in the next few years, they are going to need not just stars - but complimentary players.  If 16 ppg is all Jeff Green can bring, then SO WHAT.   He is better that every player on the above list - but again, people want to compare him to players that are making 2x what he is making.

Just trade the guy already.  Trade him for a bag of balls and some no name 8 ppg scorer from Atlanta - hell bring in Joe Shit The Rag Man.  Then tank the rest of the season and get some unproven 19 year old who is 175 pounds soaking wet - and when he isnt Paul Pierce in 2 years, get rid of that bum as well.  Oh and might as well trade Rondo and not resign Avery while you are at it. 

This overly entitled fan base full of basketball ignoramuses and the dime store writers who feed their incessant need for a story even when one doesn't exist, are starting to get on my last nerve.  These are the same clowns who didnt even know Boston had a basketball team for 20 years between Bird and Garnett - yet somehow think they know basketball and how to evaluate talent. 

With the Bruins on hiatus for 3 weeks and the Pats done and the Sox not started yet - expect it to get ever worse over the next few weeks.  God Help Us.

MrKleen,

People seem to be entrenched in their positions on Jeff Green, so I've stopped making posts regarding him, but I'll throw this one out there just to say that I agree with what you're saying.

You tell me who on this list is a better player than Jeff Green?

Andris Biedrins. His free-throw shooting is holding that team together. BobH knows what I'm talking about from his days with Golden State.


Okay, okay. Just trying to lighten the mood.

Thanks Outside....a little fired up after reading this and hearing a bunch of guys in my row at the Mavs / Celtics game tonight who wouldnt know a dunk from a dunkin donut, talk about how the need to ship Green out of town.

Mrkleen,

Here's an irony. I posted that article with you in mind. I thought you'd enjoy reading what I thought was a realistic set of expectations of Jeff Green. When Danny said it wasn't appropriate to expect Jeff to carry the team every night, this writer said, "Finally a breath of fresh air." What do you think he meant by that? It seemed to me that he could have been echoing your own viewpoints.

I'm not necessary disagreeing with you on your opinions, and I've known the same degree of frustration when I believed many people have no clue on some issue or another. I'm just a little confused on why this particular seemed to be same old same old rather than suggesting a fairer or more realistic perspective on expectations of Jeff Green.

Sam

I'd expect some expiring contracts and a first rounder for him..

Seems like Danny us looking for a deal for him, but while he is here, while I hoped he'd sort of take on a larger role than what he has... He has been pretty much what I expected.. I mean this is who he is.... This far into his career he ain't likely to change..

Danny is pushing hard on a trade of Green and Atlanta is making a push for Green ....see today's new post.

112288

Anybody see that great pick by Perk on Melo? thats what we've been missing since he left.

The trade for Green didn't work bottomline, we would have been better off keeping Perk, theres a litany of SF's that can give you what Green does or doesn't do.

People thought it would be easy to replace Perk, well it hasn't, KG and Perk should have been kept together....what a shame.

sam wrote:Mrkleen,

Here's an irony.  I posted that article with you in mind.  I thought you'd enjoy reading what I thought was a realistic set of expectations of Jeff Green.  When Danny said it wasn't appropriate to expect Jeff to carry the team every night, this writer said, "Finally a breath of fresh air."  What do you think he meant by that?  It seemed to me that he could have been echoing your own viewpoints.

I'm not necessary disagreeing with you on your opinions, and I've known the same degree of frustration when I believed many people have no clue on some issue or another.  I'm just a little confused on why this particular seemed to be same old same old rather than suggesting a fairer or more realistic perspective on expectations of Jeff Green.

Sam

Thanks Sam...I appreciate it.

It wasnt this article in particular that sparked that reaction - it was my experience at the game last night sitting next to a bunch of pig headed fans with little clue....plus this article I read when I got home

http://www.csnne.com/blog/celtics-talk/report-green-being-shopped-hard-hawks-interested

plus this last line in the above article:

But, Green? It’s tough to say what his market is or if he’s viewed as a viable contributor on a contender. One thing should be clear, though: No matter what the Celtics say, it’s not a question of whether they want to trade him; it’s whether they can for better than 50 cents on the dollar.

I mean, what does that even mean?  Does the author have any clue with other SF around the NBA are making?  Clearly not.

I did a little review of the value of points per game vs dollars earned of the most prominent players at the SF position.  Now I know this isnt a great way to look at things, as it doesnt take into account things like defensive effectiveness, +/-, and other intangibles that players bring.  But just on face, as a way to compare what else is out there - this is a back of the envelope calculation.

This first list is sorted by Salary

Name	TEAM	Points	2013-14 Salary
Camelo Anthony	NY	27.1	$21,388,953.00
LeBron James	MIA	26.1	$19,067,500.00
Rudy Gay	SAC/TOR	19.9	$17,888,932.00
Kevin Durant	OKC	31.2	$17,832,627.00
Paul Pierce	BKN	13.2	$15,333,334.00
Luol Deng	CLE	17.4	$14,275,000.00
Josh Smith	DET	16.1	$13,500,000.00
Danny Grainger	IND	8.4	$13,060,000.00
Andre Iguodala	GS	9.6	$12,868,632.00
Nicolas Batum	POR	12.8	$11,295,000.00
Richard Jefferson	UTA	10.1	$10,160,000.00
Danilo Gallinari	DEN	16.2	$10,146,925.00
Gerald Wallace	BOS	4.7	$10,105,885.00
Shawn Marion	DAL	10.9	$9,066,796.00
Jeff Green	BOS	16.3	$8,700,000.00
Caron Butler	MIL	10.5	$8,000,000.00
Trevor Ariza	WSH	14.1	$7,727,000.00
Evan Turner	PHI	17.5	$6,700,000.00
Paul George	IND	22.6	$3,280,000.00

This second list is resorted by Points per Dollar - i.e. what is the value of each point per game compared to each dollar earned

Name	TEAM	Points	2013-14 Salary	Points Per Dollar
Paul George	IND	22.6	$3,280,000.00	$145,132.74
Evan Turner	PHI	17.5	$6,700,000.00	$382,857.14
Jeff Green	BOS	16.3	$8,700,000.00	$533,742.33
Trevor Ariza	WSH	14.1	$7,727,000.00	$548,014.18
Kevin Durant	OKC	31.2	$17,832,627.00	$571,558.56
Danilo Gallinari	DEN	16.2	$10,146,925.00	$626,353.40
LeBron James	MIA	26.1	$19,067,500.00	$730,555.56
Caron Butler	MIL	10.5	$8,000,000.00	$761,904.76
Camelo Anthony	NY	27.1	$21,388,953.00	$789,260.26
Luol Deng	CLE	17.4	$14,275,000.00	$820,402.30
Shawn Marion	DAL	10.9	$9,066,796.00	$831,816.15
Josh Smith	DET	16.1	$13,500,000.00	$838,509.32
Nicolas Batum	POR	12.8	$11,295,000.00	$882,421.88
Rudy Gay	SAC/TOR	19.9	$17,888,932.00	$898,941.31
Richard Jefferson	UTA	10.1	$10,160,000.00	$1,005,940.59
Paul Pierce	BKN	13.2	$15,333,334.00	$1,161,616.21
Andre Iguodala	GS	9.6	$12,868,632.00	$1,340,482.50
Danny Grainger	IND	8.4	$13,060,000.00	$1,554,761.90
Gerald Wallace	BOS	4.7	$10,105,885.00	$2,150,188.30

So contrary to the incessant drum beat of Cow and many others - there are NOT a litany of SF who bring what Jeff Green bring to the table, particularly at the salary he is earning.  On this list, only Paul George (who is due for a BIG pay increase very soon) and Evan Turner give more value for dollars spent - which makes the ridiculous comment about the Celtics being lucky to get 50 cents on the dollar for Green even more ludicrous.  They are ALREADY getting more than that pay for.

I dont expect facts to sway the Green detractors...and as I said above, I am done beating my head against the wall on this subject.

kleen would you do that trade knowing what you know now?

cowens/oldschool wrote:kleen would you do that trade knowing what you know now?

Cow - playing Monday morning quarterback is the easiest position on the field, so staring with the pre cursor - knowing what you know now, is really meaningless...since you can never know what you know now, when a deal is in the works.

With the 20+years of futility still fresh in his mind - and Pierce and KG already showing signs of their decline, Danny had to make a decision.  Trade a role player for a potential star.  On the day of the trade, I felt bad as I liked Perk a lot.  But from a basketball standpoint, I would do that trade 100 out of 100 times.  No question.

Now you could pontificate after the fact that with Perk in the line up in June 2012, the Celtics might have beat the Heat and gone on to win another title.  There are a lots of ifs and maybes there - but I might even go with you on that one.

So the question becomes, are the Celtics better off today with Green vs Perk?

I don think there is any question on that - as we saw what Perk brings to the table on a bad team in the 4 season before he got to play beside KG.  Perk is good on a good team, he is not worth as much on a bad team.

At the end of the day - that ship sailed 3 years ago, time to let it go.

112288 wrote:Danny is pushing hard on a trade of Green and Atlanta is making a push for Green ....see today's new post.

Correction -- there's a report that Danny is pushing hard on a trade of Green and Atlanta is making a push for Green. Big difference, but if you want to see Green traded, you're more likely to consider a report as fact.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Anybody see that great pick by Perk on Melo? thats what we've been missing since he left.

The Celtics have been missing illegal screens and cheap shots? Because that's what I saw.


Perk shoves his shoulder into Carmelo right as Carmelo arrives. Look at Perk's shoulders when he initially sets the pick and where his shoulders are after delivering the blow -- it's a 90-degree turn. Heck, it could draw a flag in the NFL because Carmelo was in a defenseless position when Perk delivered the blow. And make no mistake, that's what Perk did -- deliver a blow, not set a screen.

Melo's teammates let him down by not calling out the screen, but that doesn't change the fact that it was a cheap shot and an illegal screen. I can imagine what you'd say if Metta World Mayhem had done this to a Celtic.

What's a reasonable expectation for Jeff Green? A decent third or fourth option on a contending team?

Certainly not a player to build around. So Green, like just about all the current Celtic players, is expendable in a rebuilding process.

The only problem here is that Jeff Green is not what's wrong with this team yet there are people trying to make it seem like he is the problem. I'm not going to sit here and list any more statistics about him, but I think it's very unfair to expect him to be a future Hall of Famer. If that is the benchmark people are going to judge by then rarely any player would ever be worth much, regardless of contributions they've made.

The real problem is the lack of a legit center and a lack of off the bench scoring.



KJ

Kleen too bad it turned out just to be role player for a tease, I mean role player. I will say this in the NBA to succeed you need at least one skill that you do well, Perk has that, its his relentless toughness, hes always the same banging the shit out of anybody thats closest to him. Jeff Green while athletic, doesn't have that one skill that a team needs, hes a jack of all trades, master of none, but he may go for 30 plus every 6th game.

At the time of the trade I thought it sucked, we weakend our core, our calling card was defense, best defensive team of the era, well we were still very good defensively, but never like before....we fockin made Lebron get out of Cleveland. Then I was at peace with it, now I feel bad for KG and Pierce, they should have been allowed to keep that starting team together and let the chips fall wherever they may. You never trade away a core piece when your at the pinnacle of contention, we blew it, Danny blew it.

And for those who say Perk wasn't going to resign, you don't know that. Just keep him under contract, let the Beast play out the season, then deal with it. Boston was the only home that kid ever had, do you really think after another championship/deep playoff run hes gonna leave...not if KG calls and says we need you Dog!! then Danny goes alittle higher, Perk comes down a mill, they coulda worked this all out. Perk loved this team and city, Rondo is still his best friend, KG is like his father.....he would have stayed, take that to the bank!!!

By the way Kleen, what are you a stat geek now? those stats prove nothing, do they show how much heart Perk has/was willing to sacrifice for this franchise. My eyes tell me I want a guy like Perk watching my back and Jeff Green is not good enough at his position to carry us anywhere deep in the playoffs this year or ever.

One more thing about Jeff Green, his first year here everyone said hes trying to adjust, hes in a new system, he needs a training camp, etc. That first season is the same Jeff Green as right now, he shows flashes, he has one game of 20 plus and now 3 years later, this is still all he does, he will never avg 20 points a game, he was brought here to be an athletic version of Posey and be a core building block for the future... we know hes not quite near that. Posey got as much out of his skillset and abilities as he could, he was clever and cagey. Green is just an athletic tease, afraid or unable to really take charge or play hard/consistent for any significant stretch.

cowens/oldschool wrote: You never trade away a core piece when your at the pinnacle of contention, we blew it, Danny blew it.

And for those who say Perk wasn't going to resign, you don't know that. Just keep him under contract, let the Beast play out the season, then deal with it. Boston was the only home that kid ever had, do you really think after another championship/deep playoff run hes gonna leave...not if KG calls and says we need you Dog!! then Danny goes alittle higher, Perk comes down a mill, they coulda worked this all out. Perk loved this team and city, Rondo is still his best friend, KG is like his father.....he would have stayed, take that to the bank!!!

By the way Kleen, what are you a stat geek now? those stats prove nothing, do they show how much heart Perk has/was willing to sacrifice for this franchise. My eyes tell me I want a guy like Perk watching my back and Jeff Green is not good enough at his position to carry us anywhere deep in the playoffs this year or ever.

First off, a stats geek is someone who uses ONLY stats to base all their opinions with no observations about other intangibles.  That is not at all what I do out here.

But to suggest that stats dont matter at all, is foolish.  Stats tell a story, and in the case of Jeff Green - especially as it relates to what he does vs what he is paid - it is a very valid story.  Sorry you are too blinded by your unhappiness of Perk being gone to see it - but that isnt my issue.

There is a subtle difference between rebuilding and holding a fire sale and the Celtics are very close to the later at this point. 

Cow - out of respect, I am leaving this aside as there is nothing more to say on the subject.

Unhappiness? I don't think your a stat geek, but those stats didn't answer my question which you sidestepped and didn't answer, the original question you used nice words like Bill Clinton and wouldn't answer.

mrkleen09 wrote:I am pretty much over defending Jeff Green - and not because I have given up on him, but because I have given up on the ability for basketball writers and most basketball fans in this city to pull their heads out of their collective asses long enough to understand how unrealistic the expectations they have placed on Jeff Green are.

Danny Ainge said it perfectly in this quote:

“I understand it because I think expectations aren’t right,” Ainge said of fans’ frustrations with Green, before defending his player’s four-year, $36 million contract that expires in 2016. “Well, $9 million, that’s half of a max contract. Jeff has given us 16 or 17 points a game on a very efficient overall year he’s having. I think that’s what people should expect. ”

I have posted this list many times before out here - but HERE are the players in the NBA who are making around the same amount as Jeff Green:


Mehmet Okur, C        Brooklyn Nets            $10,890,000
JaVale McGee, C         Denver Nuggets        $10,750,000
Danilo Gallinari, SF    Denver Nuggets        $10,146,925
Gerald Wallace, SF     Boston Celtics            $10,105,855
Tiago Splitter, C         San Antonio Spurs    $10,000,000
Shawn Marion, SF     Dallas Mavericks       $9,316,796
Steve Nash, PG           Los Angeles Lakers    $9,300,500
Anderson Varejao, C Cleveland Cavaliers  $9,036,364
Andris Biedrins, C     Utah Jazz        $9,000,000
Kendrick Perkins, C  Oklahoma City Thunder       $8,727,437
Jeff Green, SF Boston Celtics            $8,700,000
Mike Conley, PG         Memphis Grizzlies     $8,600,001
Charlie Villanueva, PF           Detroit Pistons           $8,580,000
Rodney Stuckey, SG   Detroit Pistons           $8,500,000
Ryan Anderson, PF    New Orleans Pelicans           $8,308,500
Marcus Thornton, SG            Sacramento Kings     $8,050,000

You tell me who on this list is a better player than Jeff Green?

Boston sports fans are looking for another Paul Pierce (one of the 5 best players in Celtics history) and anything less is unacceptable.  This is not only short sighted but woefully ignorant of how hard it is to find that kind of franchise player.

If the Celtics are going to be a contender in the next few years, they are going to need not just stars - but complimentary players.  If 16 ppg is all Jeff Green can bring, then SO WHAT.   He is better that every player on the above list - but again, people want to compare him to players that are making 2x what he is making.

Just trade the guy already.  Trade him for a bag of balls and some no name 8 ppg scorer from Atlanta - hell bring in Joe Shit The Rag Man.  Then tank the rest of the season and get some unproven 19 year old who is 175 pounds soaking wet - and when he isnt Paul Pierce in 2 years, get rid of that bum as well.  Oh and might as well trade Rondo and not resign Avery while you are at it. 

This overly entitled fan base full of basketball ignoramuses and the dime store writers who feed their incessant need for a story even when one doesn't exist, are starting to get on my last nerve.  These are the same clowns who didnt even know Boston had a basketball team for 20 years between Bird and Garnett - yet somehow think they know basketball and how to evaluate talent. 

With the Bruins on hiatus for 3 weeks and the Pats done and the Sox not started yet - expect it to get ever worse over the next few weeks.  God Help Us.

what are you basing better on? hes not better than everyone on that list, in what way is he better?