Potential Barometers for the Coming Season

I recently noticed an addition to the Basketball Reference charts—something called “Miscellaneous Statistics.” Some were more familiar than others. As usual, stats don't begin to tell the entire story. But, if one goes down the list, a certain pattern of strengths and weaknesses of last year’s Celtics team emerges. Nothing earthshaking is revealed, as most of the “findings” have been discussed, in one way or another, on this board.

These particular stats represent hindsight; but, on an ongoing basis, at least some of them could potentially be useful barometers in monitoring the progress of the team this coming season. Rather than presenting the raw data for each stat, I’ve recorded the Celtics’ ranking among the 30 teams in the league. For the edification of anyone who (like me) might not have been familiar with all of the abbreviations, I’ve included brief descriptions. I’ve also presented, in italics, my takeaway (for whatever it’s worth) with emphasis on possible implications for the 2012-13 season.

I'll be interested in your comments.

Sam

MOV: 11
Margin of Victory: Average team score minus average opponents’ score

The average margin of victory for the Celtics was 2.52 points. In contrast, the Heat’s average margin (5.98) was well over twice as high. The more “laughers” the Celtics can produce this season, the more rest they can give guys like KG and Pierce without having to rest them for entire games. This will be especially important on the first night of back-to-backs.

SOS: 18
Strength of Schedule: Takes into account ratings of opponents and locations of games

The Celtics were in the middle of the pack in terms of the strength of their schedule. In comparison, the Thunder and Heat (the two championship finalists) ranked 11th and 14th respectively. Could there be some correlation between the facts that (1) the Heat played a slightly tougher schedule than the Celtics and (2) the Heat just edged out the Celtics in a seven-game Conference Final?

SRS: 12
Simple Rating System (considers both point differential and strength of schedule)

The Heat ranked number 4 on this measure because they had a much higher positive point differential against a slightly more difficult schedule. While stats don’t mean anything, and the nature of the schedule can certainly affect the rating at any given point during the season, this stat will provide a pretty good indicator of the relative strength of the main contenders down the stretch.

ORtg: 27
Offensive Rating: points scored per 100 possessions

This stat offers irrefutable evidence of how inefficient the Celtics’ offense was last season. Only three other teams in the entire league were worse. IF Courtney Lee can blend nicely with the other starting four (and especially with Rondo) in Bradley’s absence, this stat is one argument for keeping Lee in the starting unit and using Bradley with an up-tempo second unit off the bench. It could be advantageous to have two combos, each of which features a shooter and a specialist in another area of the game (Lee/Rondo and Terry/Bradley) rather than pairing Lee and Terry all the time. There’s still only one ball.

DRtg: 1
Defensive Rating: points allowed per 100 possessions

It’s hard to be better than number one, and their defense was obviously the first, second and third reason why the Celtics nearly reached the championship round. Yes, KG and Paul have aged a year. But, nonetheless, with Ray Allen the most noteworthy departure, Terry and Lee being better defenders than Ray, and Bradley being an established part of the rotation for whatever portion of the season he plays, this season’s defense could well be at least on a par with that of last season.

Pace: 21
Pace of the game: Estimated number of possessions for both teams (combined) per 48 minutes.

If the Celts are going to be more uptempo this season, this stat will go a long way toward telling the story. Having been about two-thirds of the way down in the pack last season seems about right for a team that exhibited numerous impressive spurts but even more times when the offense seemed stagnant (especially down the stretch).

OFF eFG%: 10
Offensive effective field goal percentage: Offensive field goal percentage adjusted for the fact that a three-pointer counts one point more than a two-pointer

This stat indicates that, when the Celtics retained control of the ball during a given possession, their scoring efficiency was (barely) in the top 10. It had to be the turnovers that contributed to their low ranking in their points per 100 possessions.

OFF TOV%: 25
Offensive turnover percentage: Estimate of offensive turnover percentage per hundred plays (taking into account field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers in calculating number of possessions)

See previous comment. I told you so.

ORB%: 30
Offensive rebounding percentage: Offensive rebounds as a percentage of available offensive rebounds

This stat speaks for itself. You can’t get much lower than worst. Here’s hoping that Messrs. Wilcox and Sullinger can inject some life into their offensive rebounding game. However, it’s probably unrealistic to expect a significant improvement in offensive rebounding as long as the Celtics employ a “drop back” transition defense policy.

OFF FT/FGA: 17
Free throws taken by a team as a percentage of field goal attempts by that team

This statistic is at least a partial measure of how aggressive the Celtics offense was last season. Middle of the pack. For every time we exulted over the number of points in the paint they were getting, there were at least as many times that we complained they were settling for jumpers. If there’s one offensive area in which Sullinger can most help this team, it could be this one, although he’ll have to learn (maybe from Pierce) some moves to avoid being blocked so much on his drives.

DEF eFG%: 2
Defensive effective field goal percentage: Opponents’ field goal percentage adjusted for the fact that a three-pointer counts one point more than a two-pointer

The Celts’ show-and-recover defensive system clearly limited field goal percentages of opponents, as did their perimeter defense against the three. Personally, I think they could improve an already good defense by (1) improving their pick-and-roll defense (2) developing better teamwork to cover opponents’ open offensive rebounders when the Celtics block a shot.

DEF TOV%: 4
Defensive turnover percentage: Estimate of defensive turnover percentage per hundred plays (taking into account field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers in calculating number of possessions)

There’s no question that Avery Bradley sets the tone on this one, but that's not nearly the entire story. The aforementioned defensive system works quite well in the passing lanes, which is where the bulk of turnovers usually occurs.

DRB%: 20
Defensive rebound percentage: Defensive rebounds as a percentage of available defensive rebounds

While the Celtics’ offensive rebounding bordered on the putrid, their defensive rebounding was nothing to write home about. The only rebounder they’ve really added is Sullinger. But I think they need a more systematized rebounding strategy. Look at some of these other teams who have one guy keeping the rebound alive while another guy swoops in from the outside to scoop up the loose ball. This is just one way in which better teamwork (and better boxing out) can improve this stat without adding rebounding stars.

DEF FT/FGA: 19
Free throws taken by opponent as a percentage of field goal attempts by opponent

It seems to me that the penetration of quick opposing guards gave the Celtics fits last season. The little guys (and Rondo was often the chief culprit) didn’t fight through picks; their switches were often slow; and the big guys (including Steamer on numerous occasions) showed up just in time to commit a foul for an “and one.” All of these areas need improvement this season. I personally would love to see Dave Cowens come in and conduct a defensive clinic. I don’t mean I’d just like it to happen. I’d actually love to SEE it!!!

PW: 10
Pythagorean wins: Expected wins based on points scored and allowed
PL: 10
Pythagorean losses: Expected losses based on points scored and allowed

They can call these two whatever they want, but the number of expected Celtics wins and losses were identical to the actual number of Celtics wins and losses, and they don’t show me anything in retrospect. If they have some predictive value (everyone knows how I love predictions) perhaps these two stats could be more useful during the season than after the season.

sam,

I think for these stats to really be meaningful we would have to look at them in two halves, pre-all star and post-all star. We pretty much stunk before the all star game because Mssrs Pierce and Garnett showed up out of shape (especially Pierce). Furthermore, the second half belonged to Avery Bradley and we had a very good second half, only to struggle after Avery Bradley went out. Bradley starts and we go on an extended tear, then he goes out and we struggle. Hmmm. That could be indicative of something, stats or no stats to back it up.

The difficulty of schedule is a bit misleading too, since last year was a screwed up season. Back-to-back-to-backs? 22 back-to-backs in a 66 game season?

Yes, Rondo was a big culprit of not moving his feet on defense and letting his man turn the corner and penetrate. That can be fixed by padding the other pg's stats. It seems that Rondo plays better when he doesn't think he'll have it easy. His poor perimeter defense was a major disappointment for me last year.

The reason why the Heat edged us out in a 7 game series is because:
1. They had a better regular season record than us, allowing them an easier playoff opening series. We had the Hawks and then Philly. They had the Lin-less Knicks and the give-up Pacers (that was a decent description of them by their GM, Larry Bird).
2. We lost DWade stopper, Avery Bradley, the guy who was a key in our post all-star surge.
3. Don't get me started on the referreeing in the first two games. Even the league admitted they made a lot of bad calls. If a coach or player complains about the refs they get fined, so you know it was bad when the league itself says something.
4. Lastly, they were the younger, more athletic team. They were healthy. Pierce had a sore knee, Allen had his ankle spurs. We had Ryan Hollins, for Pete's Sake, playing rotation minutes because season-starting 4th string center Greg Stiemsma had plantar fasciitis in one foot and a deep bone bruise in the other. No Wilcox. No JON. No Green. Let's be honest, they were the better team. They had a better regular season record than us despite having a harder schedule. That's what a better team looks like. We overachieved, and damn near pulled it off too, but they were the better team all season long.

No surprises about the rebounding. I expect Wilcox and Sully to do good things too, but if Doc tells them "fall back on defense" then only defensive rebounding will improve. Still, I'd take that. I hate giving up defensive boards even more than I love getting offensive rebounds. We're still not a particularly tall team (yes, Collins and Melo are 7'0", but I don't expect them to play much. So, based upon likely minutes played, our team isn't tall) so having rugged defensive rebounders like Wilcox and Sully will help to offset bigger team's efforts to control our boards. Secure our boards and run and many of our above-noted offensive deficiencies will fade. Etch that in stone.

I expect eFG to improve if we run. Nothing improves offensive efficiency and shooting percentages like layups and dunks. What if the other team gets back on defense? Just have one more player running than them.

Thanks for grabbing all this stuff. Perhaps you could save them in a doc somewhere, so that we can compare them later to this coming season's? I'm hoping basketball-reference updates these stats and reports them after each game, so we can see trends.

bob


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Bob,

I posted the stats for last season mainly to familiarize people with them. Obviously the stats could vary by month or by half of the season, but these were what was available. I'm well aware of the various reasons why the Heat beat the Celtics, but I was conjecturing whether one of those many reasons might relate to the Heat's being a bit more battle tested because of the comparative strength of schedules. That's why I didn't suggest is was anything like the only reason why the Heat won.

My hope is to update the stats periodically throughout the coming season (perhaps monthly or something like that) to look for trends. You can be sure that one of my "checkpoints" will be the arrival of Bradley in the lineup. The defensive stats could change in a hurry with him playing his normal game.

Take care,

Sam

Sam thanks for posting these statistics.

On the offensive side of the ball the Celtics need to get more shots up. There is only one solution to this problem. Run, run run...

The problem is that our captain is not able to get up and down for any meaningful stretch of the game. It is hard to be productive running a two man fast break. If the trailer on fast breaks is the 3 you are in trouble.

So I think the second unit may have the best opportunity to get up and down and/or when PP is not in the game to slow things up. I love PP but he is a half court player. Occasionally (very occasionally) when he actually runs hard the Celtics' fast break is a lot better.

Enter Jeff Green. In the brief time we saw him play he could easily beat his man down the court. He likes to run and that will really impact our points for differential as compared to the opponent.

I think the problems that the Celtics had giving up 2nd chance points begins and ends with defensive rebounding. How many games did we watch where our guys are ball watching instead of finding their man and putting a body on him to protect the defensive glass? It is a point of emphasis that must be addressed by Rivers and more time must be spent to strengthen this glaring weakness.

One thing I really liked about Sully during the summer games was how he found his man, and spread out to control the space where the ball was coming off a missed shot. I also think that Wilcox will help as well as Collins.

The other thing is better pick and roll defense because once the rotation is compromised, rebounding positioning is suspect.

The Celtics have put together a very talented team. The (4) things that are sure to put them on top are:

1. Get more shots than the other team (run don't walk)
2. reduce the number of unforced turnovers (fatigue leads to mistakes)
3. Improve the pick and role defense. (bum rush the ball handler and cut
off the passing lanes with a series of rotations)
4. Concentrate on defensive rebounding (get back to the fundamentals)

Dribble, pass, shoot, defend and rebound better as a team.

dboss

Sam

Question regarding STAT#2

I realize with the short season teams played different schedules however was the strength considered at the time we played a particular team (there w/l record at the time we played them, or there w/l record at the end of the season)

just curious is all.

beat

Beat, it has to be the opponents' W/L record at the time the team played them because I believe the statistic is updated with each game, not just at the end of the year.

Sam

One thing the team did last season that finds its way tangentially into these stats is that they often would play down to the level of the competition. That probably accounts for the margin of victory rating. They made a lot of lazy unforced turnovers, especially against lesser opponents, played with what Red used to call 'false hustle' as if they just didn't take them seriously enough. Not boxing out, not crashing the offensive boards, these are lazy traits, attributable to lack of hustle.

Rondo and Pierce are being idolized by all these young guys. If they persist in this occasional Antoine-Walker-type attitude, not taking care of the ball, slacking off on defense, they're going to suffer one of two fates: either set a bad example of 'false hustle' or get shown up by their backup.

Dboss,

Good summary. I agree 100%. I find it interesting that all four of your "things to put them on top" are at least partly functions of practice time:

• The precision timing and role execution involved in the running game

• The chemistry that leads to (among other things) better ball protection

• Developing quicker, more aggressive reactions to the pick and roll

• Developing better reactions and technique in rebound anticipation, putting bodies on people, and rebounding as a team rather than as a bunch of individuals

I'm very hopeful that, starting with training camp, this will be a season much more filled with practices. Games will be less tightly bunched for the most part. A deeper roster means less fatigue and more ability to withstand practice schedules. Last year (particularly in the playoffs), I was amazed that they could play as well as they did together because Doc was constantly forced to cancel practices in favor or rest and recovery.

One thing I know. When the team seems to "get it," that's precisely the time to practice some more. Even with pretty much the same nucleus from year to year, a slew of consecutive championships under their belts, games on as many as five consecutive nights, and fiercely uptempo game pace, Red kept them practicing because one never knew when that one extra bit of chemistry would win a championship.

The idea is to build on strength, not on weakness.

Sam

The biggest failure I saw last year in the Celts game was a lack of boxing out. All season I was yelling at the tv - Box Out! Box Out! Box Out! I expect Sully to be boxing out. Sure hope the other Celts pick up on this.

W,

That's one of the main reasons to look forward to many, many practice sessions for this team. The coach can tell them in the locker room to box out; but he can really get on them in practice. One of the good things about having a bunch of young guys on the team is that Doc and his crew can pound away at them in practice while certain veterans get the same much-needed message without being humiliated.

If they could just learn that, in rebounding, the first move must be to put a body on someone before going for the rebound, Tommy Heinsohn's blood pressure would plummet, and he would live forever.

Sam

Sam

If the C's started to concentrate more on OB's, than how will that affect their defense? Doc ordered the team back on defense. How many boards make a less effective defense? No doubt about it, Tommy living and broadcasting forever is well worth what ever it takes. It's amazing how much basketball he knows compared to his detractors. If only he weren't so shy and unassuming. lol Looking forward to Sam's updates of these meaningless stats. lol

Mulcogi,

I guess it's an all-or-nothing thing. Either you commit to crashing the offensive boards or you commit to getting back on defense. However, there are other teams that seem to be able to strike a happy medium and do both to a satisfactory degree.

I'm hoping that one side benefit of getting younger and more athletic will be that at least the bench will be able to take the middle ground by crashing the offensive boards and also sprinting back on defense. We'll see.

How are things going for you?

Sam

OK. Commit to D and overlook OB's, but at least box out ont the defensive boards. I agree Sam, boxing out is something to refine in practice, something the Celts had very little opportunity to do la saison deniere.

Mul Sam and W

there were many times last year NOBODY went for the offensive boards. 5 guys in retreat mode when a shot went up mainly a long shot. Seems we could have a little better balance and send a couple guys to contest the board. Even if you don't get it you can still slow down an outlet pass.

Also of note since the Big East started keeping offensive boards as a separate stat ( 1998 thru now), Joseph is the 19th best all-time offensive rebounder. Not to bad considering the quality of bigs in that conference.

beat

W,

It's a very delicate thing for a coach to preach fundamentals to a veteran team. A wrong word, an unfortunate inflection can spell the difference between the constructive and the disastrous. I'm convinced the Celtics have the best possible coach to meet that challenge.

The longer Doc's with the Celtics, the more he seems to resemble Red the Coach. And this challenge will be no exception. Red always knew how to customize his approach to each player—laissez faire with some, nagging with others, confidence-building with others.

Doc has faced challenges with a similarly discriminating style. In Rome, he was laissez faire with the Three Amigos—but only while setting the overall bar high with the Duck Tour adventure. Then he had to customize his approaches with personalities and temperaments as diverse as KG's, Glen Davis', Paul Pierce's, Ray Allen's and Rajon Rondo's. I tire just thinking about the patience, tact, trial and error, creativity and perseverance that were required.


sam

beat wrote:Mul Sam and W

there were many times last year NOBODY went for the offensive boards. 5 guys in retreat mode when a shot went up mainly a long shot. Seems we could have a little better balance and send a couple guys to contest the board. Even if you don't get it you can still slow down an outlet pass.

Also of note since the Big East started keeping offensive boards as a separate stat ( 1998 thru now), Joseph is the 19th best all-time offensive rebounder. Not to bad considering the quality of bigs in that conference.

beat

good to know, in SL Joseph was great at crashing the boards, makes sense it was part of his game already. Rondo was also a great rebounder in college, hope Joseph can figure it out and bring it at the next level, he seems to have a game with intangibles built in, we may already have 2 wings to eventually replace PP and Joseph it seems can play as a big 2 too.

Herding cats...that's Doc's job description.

sam wrote:W,

It's a very delicate thing for a coach to preach fundamentals to a veteran team. A wrong word, an unfortunate inflection can spell the difference between the constructive and the disastrous. I'm convinced the Celtics have the best possible coach to meet that challenge.

The longer Doc's with the Celtics, the more he seems to resemble Red the Coach. And this challenge will be no exception. Red always knew how to customize his approach to each player—laissez faire with some, nagging with others, confidence-building with others.

Doc has faced challenges with a similarly discriminating style. In Rome, he was laissez faire with the Three Amigos—but only while setting the overall bar high with the Duck Tour adventure. Then he had to customize his approaches with personalities and temperaments as diverse as KG's, Glen Davis', Paul Pierce's, Ray Allen's and Rajon Rondo's. I tire just thinking about the patience, tact, trial and error, creativity and perseverance that were required.

great point Sam, you can't please everybody, we now know the man with the stroke, Ray Allen had to be stroked and bottomline any adjustment that benefits the teams chance of winning has to be explored and implemented. Doc did a great job with Pierce when he first got here, great job with Rondo, Baby, Leon, this past year with Bass and AB, he just knows how to get the best out of that player and do it in a winning way.....and obviously Ray saw the writing on the wall. Ray had some classic moments, but was too much a liability in other areas especially compared to what Avery Bradley showed he could do both ends. Doc did what he had to do, it is what it is.