Summer Forecast: Doctor's orders?

Summer Forecast: Doctor's orders?

By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com

What would you tweak about Doc Rivers' coaching next season?
One of the Boston Celtics' biggest weapons is their coach.

Doc Rivers isn't just one of the best in-game managers in the league, he's the complete package. He's a phenomenal speaker, whether it's the pregame pep talk or sitting in as a TV analyst (like he did with the London Olympics). Off the floor, Rivers is also a persuasive recruiter, just ask Jason Terry and Courtney Lee, who are members of the Celtics now in large part because of Rivers' offseason sales pitch.

So we preface Day 12 of our Summer Forecast by noting this isn't an attack on Rivers' coaching abilities (there's a reason he's making $7 million per season). It's simply that no one is perfect, so we asked our panel to name us one thing they'd like to see Rivers change next season. It turned out to be one of my favorite forecasts of the series with our panel offering some creative ideas.

About the only real gripe Rivers has constantly heard in recent seasons has been his lack of flexibility in the rotation, something that's often driven up the minutes for Boston's starters. Injuries last season forced Rivers to utilize all his healthy bodies and the rotation deepened a bit at times (at least until the postseason). There have also been complaints that Rivers doesn't utilize his rookies enough, but Greg Stiemsma broke through that wall last season and you have to believe that Jared Sullinger (and the others from this year's rookie class) will get the same opportunity to get on the floor during the 2012-13 campaign.

So what should Rivers change next year? The ballot I'll stuff into the suggestion box is simply this: More creativity with end-of-game plays. We already know that Rivers is one of the best at ATO (after timeout) plays and he needs to get back to being the king of the dry erase board when the Celtics have opportunities to win on the final offensive possession.

Let's be honest, Celtics fans are going to flip if they see another string of Paul Pierce step-backs from the right elbow (at least if they continue to find back iron). It can be part of the rotation, but Rivers needs to shuffle the deck at times. Maybe the loss of Ray Allen will help foster some additional creativity, forcing Boston to reevaluate many of its late-game sets.

I think back a couple seasons to when the Celtics ran a brilliant alley-oop, lob play from Rajon Rondo to Kevin Garnett in the final seconds of a thriller in Philadelphia. The Celtics can steal an extra win or two along the way if Rivers draws up those sort of gems in key situations.


Greg Payne, ESPN Boston

I'd love to see Rivers utilize what I refer to as the "horde play" more often. It's the play where Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett line up on the left side of the floor and the remaining three players stand shoulder-to-shoulder-to-shoulder along the right wing. I call it the "horde play" (I'm guessing Doc has a better name for it) because of that small gathering on the right side of the court. Basically, Rondo and Garnett run a pick-and-roll or a pick-and-pop, while, simultaneously, on the other side, the center dives to the basket, the small forward darts to the right corner, and the shooting guard springs to the top of the 3-point line, creating numerous options that often befuddle the defense and tailor to Rondo's creative game. Specifically, I want to see this play used more when the Celtics fall into their dreaded offensive droughts. You know, the fourth quarter ones that basically lost them the 2010 NBA Finals and this past season's Eastern Conference finals. Given the number of open looks the play is capable of generating, it seems like a worthy candidate to employ when things break down and the C's are trying to stave off a hearty run from their opponent. I'm not exactly sure what Rivers' mindset is when it comes to this specific play, but I can't imagine it's not worth taking a chance on when the game is hanging in the balance.


Brendan Jackson, CelticsHub

Every offseason, Celtics fans have the same requisite hopes for their team: health and fresh legs. The playbook really hasn't changed when it comes to achieving this by season's end. Doc Rivers should go against his programming, lengthen his rotation, and play rookies meaningful minutes. His unwillingness to do this is one of the few elements of his coaching style that has consistently drawn the ire of Celtics' fans. The criticism, however, isn't entirely warranted. He simply couldn't afford to put guys like Von Wafer, Patrick O'Bryant, J.R. Giddens, and Bill Walker on the floor. Last year, Rivers was forced to break from tradition when the injuries starting piling up and ended up finding success playing Greg Stiemsma. This season, he has players like Stiemsma that he should feel much more comfortable playing regardless of the injury situation. Jared Sullinger, Kris Joseph, and Dionte Christmas had strong enough summer leagues to warrant consideration in the rotation. Put 'em in, coach!


Jordan Higgs, Celtics Town

The Celtics have never been a fast team, but after the infusion of youth this offseason, I hope Doc Rivers will finally crank the tempo a bit. Last year the Celtics were 21st in pace, and have hovered around that mark for the past five years. I’d like to see them make a similar jump to the Spurs, who went from 14th in pace in 2011 to 7th last year (working their way up from 28th in 2008). We saw glimpses of what Rondo could do with a running partner last year with Bradley and Wilcox, but this year he’ll have a lot more options on the break. With Green and Lee joining Wilcox and Bradley, Rondo should have athletic sidekicks no matter the lineup. Even a “slow” lineup of Rondo, Terry, Pierce, Bass, and Garnett could run circles around a fair number of Celtics lineups from past years. If Doc takes advantage of the athleticism on his bench, Rondo should be turning defensive stops into easy baskets in no time.


Jeff Clark, CelticsBlog

I think one change Doc Rivers will have to make is to rely less on Ray Allen's constant running through screens and more on pick-and-roll and letting Jason Terry create off the dribble. I understand why Terry would need to learn some of the plays they called for Allen, but he's not the same player and Allen made a career out of wearing his opponent down with that style. I'm no scout or coach, but it also seemed like those plays took a long time to develop and, if they didn't play out right, that left Rondo to heave up a prayer to beat the clock winding down. So maybe Rivers adds some sets that get the team looks at the basket earlier in the shot clock. He knows how to make it work on inbounds plays, I would imagine that, with all the talent he has on the floor, he can develop a plan to put more points on the board.


Jared Weiss, CLNS Radio

The Celtics have utilized ballscreens well over the past few seasons, but the screener almost always pops out for a mid-range jumper instead of rolling to the rim. With a plethora of deep-range shooters on board and depth at the four, Doc Rivers is equipped with the personnel to run an aggressive and dynamic pick-and-roll. The Celtics remain thin in the interior defense department, so they should game plan to get the opposition’s pivot man in foul trouble. Chris Wilcox, Brandon Bass and Kevin Garnett all showed the ability to fly to the rim last year while moving well in transition (especially Wilcox). These three can finish at the rim and flash good athleticism, or length in Garnett’s case. Rivers has always focused on dribble penetration with kick-out options spread around the floor, but the effectiveness of this system relies on execution from all five offensive players. This system is taxing, too, and sometimes comes to a screeching halt late in games when an athletic defense steps up its intensity (see Game 7 in Miami). With an effective pick-and-roll offense, the Celtics can get the ball closer to the basket more easily than relying on Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo’s dribble penetration. It may be something that is actually unorthodox for Rivers, but he has always done a good job of making small adjustments to accommodate his new talent.

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Regarding the last opinion, Jared Weiss's, he said that over the past few seasons the screener almost always popped out for a mid-range jumper.

Those are called pindowns (because the screener's job is to "pindown" the shooter's man), Ray Allen was a master at them, and Kris Joseph was good at them this summer. I would think that Xmas might be good too. The key is that the shooter has to come off the screen and be able to do what is, for the most part, a turnaround jumper. You come off the screen, look for the ball coming to you from on top the key (so you're not facing the basket) and then quickly turn and shoot before your defender catches up. Pierce can do that, Terry could probably do that (although he seems to be more comfortable coming off his own dribble), maybe Jeff Green too (maybe) but that seems to be it of the expected rotation players. Dooling and Lee are face up shooters. Sully is the wide-body pick, not the shooter. Same with Bass and KG. So Doc, if you want to keep that play in your playbook, play Joseph and Xmas! I guess I'm agreeing with Brendan Jackson of CelticsHub who said "put'em in, coach!".

I also agree with Greg Payne on how sick I am of seeing Paul Pierce shotclock-expiring one-on-ones. Posters who joined me on the Game On threads last year heard many a primal scream by me about those. Pierce isn't going to want to hear this, but maybe he should consider being a decoy once in a while. Draw the defense to you and then pass out of the double quickly before the defense can reset.

bob

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In my book, this was the most interesting of these articles because it focuses more on teamwork issues than on individuals' abilities (although there's nothing wrong with looking at individuals too). It's not surprising that, with the specific exception of the "horde play" mentioned by one, the general precepts that are recommended have all been covered by the collective wisdom of this board.

I've been hoping that, compared with the starters, the bench would amp up the tempo. But the discussion of tempo started me thinking that the starters should be able to get out on the break too.

The two starters most likely to slow things down are obviously Pierce (given his natural style of play and the fact that he plays a lot of minutes) and KG (he can certainly run, but the minutes take their toll as the game progresses). What you really need for an ideal fast break is a playmaker, two guys filling the lanes, a trailer, and a rebounder/outlet pass guy (with the trailer potentially helping on the defensive boards as well). I think the starting cast of Rondo, Lee or Bradley, Bass, Pierce and KG (in that order) would be nearly perfect.

Rondo's at his best in the open court. Enough said about him. Lee or Bradley would be ideal for filling one lane. While Bass isn't exactly a speed demon, I'd stack him up against most of the guys he'll be playing against; and he can finish with authority. Pierce has been gravitating toward shooting more from the perimeter in recent years (his threes attempted per 36 minutes have increased from 3.6 to 4.6 in the past four years), so trailer on the break should be a comfortable role for him; and he should be able to use his bulk to out-rebound many opponents on the defensive boards. Except for Sean Williams (in very short minutes), KG was the Celtics' best rebounder per 36 minutes last season, so he'd represent the ideal rebounder/outlet guy. He's also be a secondary trailer to slash down the middle for an alley-oop if they break but have to pull the ball back out.

Moreover, I expect to see the starters get more rest than last season, giving them fresher legs with which to join the break. By my calculation, the starters played about two-thirds (actually 66.3%) of the Celtics' game minutes during the past season. (I used Basketball Reference, referred to each player's minutes, and multiplied that figure by the percentage of games he started, so the 66.3% figure is just an approximation—but probably not a bad one.)

I'm going to monitor that percentage this coming season, in hopes that the starters' figure will drop more in the direction of 60%-62%. On the basis of 240 minutes per game, this would mean the starters will average a combined 144-149 mpg for an average of 29-30 minutes per starter, compared with last season's 159 and 32 respectively. Obviously, some starters will play more minutes than other; the per-starter figures I'm showing are averages.

My plan is to add the combined starters' mpg, average starter's mpg, and individual players' mpg (compared with 2011-12) to the stats I'm going to display periodically this season (see "Potential Barometers" thread).

Sam

"Jordan Higgs, Celtics Town

The Celtics have never been a fast team,"

???? Sam, Are we just really old or is this guy just really young? I remember many REALLY fast Celtic teams.

Worcester,

First of all, “Celtics Town” is basically a blog started in 2009 by some guy (no name given in the post I read). Read the following link where the guy admits he’s basically trying to get fans to buy Celtics tickets from him so he can become “filthy rich” (his term). He says, in the following link, that, when he “started the blog in 2009 (was it really that long ago), all I wanted to was ‘to keep my B in internet studies from turning into a C.” He admits that his first post “was published in a website that has since been banished to internet heaven.” He says, “I participate daily in an email chain of six close friends all of whom I met through the internet.” He calls three of those guys “Celtics town interns” who have “dedication, drive and writing skill.” One of those three is named “Jordan Higgs.”

http://www.celticstown.com/2012/08/17/celtics-town-now-sells-boston-celtics-tickets-so-please-buy-from-us/

The link doesn’t tell whether they’ve all graduated from elementary school, but I would guess that they’ve only heard rumors about Larry Bird, to say nothing of Bill Russell et al.

I did find some of the opinions in the original post of this thread to be interesting—but no more interesting or informed than what we see every day on this board.

As for being fast, Russ and Sam were lightning fast for their positions, and I'd certainly stack the pure speed of either of them (in his prime) against ANY of today's players. But what was REALLY fast on those teams was the speed with which the ball moved upcourt by a now-all-but-forgotten mechanism known as the "pass." On many breaks, multiple Celticss would touch the ball without its bouncing once.

Sam

Andy Laska, My one and only bball coach (when I was 8 years old at Worcester Academy Day Camp - Dee Rowe, later UCONN coach ran the program) and a former teammate of the Cooz on their NCAA championship Holy Cross teams would tell us, "You can never dribble the ball faster than you can pass the ball." He went on to coach the Assumption Greyhounds.

This team is 9/10 man deep with quality rotation players that could start. I do not see the rookies getting minutes, except for JS. Blowouts and injuries could open the door a little.

Dboss

Dboss,

I believe at least a few of the rookies (if not all of them) will get plenty of minutes in which to challenge the vets. But most of those minutes will be in practice. There's every possibility they'll face stiffer competition in practice than they would in actual games. I don't think garbage time minutes help them at all, although injuries could open up possibilities. But, given the depth of the team, multiple injuries would have to be involved, and who wants that to happen?

Sam

sam wrote:Dboss,

I believe at least a few of the rookies (if not all of them) will get plenty of minutes in which to challenge the vets. But most of those minutes will be in practice. There's every possibility they'll face stiffer competition in practice than they would in actual games. I don't think garbage time minutes help them at all, although injuries could open up possibilities. But, given the depth of the team, multiple injuries would have to be involved, and who wants that to happen?

Sam

sam,

One of the sine qua nons of basketball is that "there's only one ball". Well, there's also only 10 players on the floor at any one time. If Doc wants his 2nd unit to gel, players 11-15 might not even get much floor time in practice as Doc has his 2nd platoon play against his 1st. Joseph might get some more practice time since, on the 2nd unit with Green/Lee/Wilcox/Terry, he could present the 1st unit with "smallball", but Xmas and Melo? What different look can they present the 1st unit that Lee and Collins can't?

bob


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Bob,

Actually, if the Celtics were to keep 15 players with the team, they could rest the starters at some point in practice and pit the second team against the third team. Or they could rest Pierce and KG, move Green and Wilcox up to play with the starters, and combine two or three second-teamers with two or three third-teamers. All sorts of combinations might eventuate.

I think Melo might benefit from spending some time in the D League. I think Joseph and Christmas show enough poise and potential to be playing against teammates in practice. I'm almost afraid they could regress in the D League.

Sam

sam wrote:Bob,

Actually, if the Celtics were to keep 15 players with the team, they could rest the starters at some point in practice and pit the second team against the third team. Or they could rest Pierce and KG, move Green and Wilcox up to play with the starters, and combine two or three second-teamers with two or three third-teamers. All sorts of combinations might eventuate.

I think Melo might benefit from spending some time in the D League. I think Joseph and Christmas show enough poise and potential to be playing against teammates in practice. I'm almost afraid they could regress in the D League.

Sam

Sam,

I agree. The starters don't need the practice as much except that Bradley is looking like he won't be ready so Lee, presumably, will need to get some unit cohesion time with them.

I also agree about Melo etal. Melo needs to learn tbe game not just learn the plays. Joseph looked smooth already and Xmas has pro experience.


Bob


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