The Celtics & A Slippery Slope!

After losses to Atlanta, where we were out rebounded out jumped and out positioned for almost every loose ball to be had (I know we had won the previous 7 vs, the Hawks). There comes a time when every young talented team "gets it" and gets over the hump against their chief obstacle. Now that they have the belief they can (now have proven) they can beat the C's in the Garden the Atlanta crew will be twice as hard to handle in subsequent trips to our home gym. Then Saturday at Indianapolis, we seemed like we were more intent on chirping to the Refs, Joey Crawford in particular. Ouur defense was sloppy and lazy 113 points!-Two 110 point plus games within 8 days, unacceptable. Some of Crawford's calls were atrocious, granted. But real pros play through it or rise above it to take care of their business. 'Sheed and Perk need to zip it and play ball. Let Doc work the Officials. Far too many open looks for Granger, too many trips to the tin for many of the Pacers. Hibbert must now be reckoned with as a real force. Danny & Doc need to address the back up PG for Rondo soon! I don't like Eddie bringing the ball up. His (Eddie's) time should be spent on offense looking for opennings for spot up shots. I fear this team sits teetering precariously on the brink of mediocrity, advancing age may be the main culprit. If this trend continues, we're looking at a 45-50 win team.-MD

MD,
IMO, the problem is our aging stars, who know they need to save plenty for the spring and can't do that if they go all-out now. (and if they don't go nearly all-out now, the spring won't matter).
The solution might be inspired coaching, not Doc's two-team concept, but an agile substitution pattern that keeps a combination of fresh legs and veteran savvy on the court all the time, except in blowouts.
Is is harder to truly integrate 10-11 men into playing together than to have two teams of five? Sure. But better to be hard on the coach's brain than KG's knee, RA's ankles or PP's whatever's wrong at the moment.
An inspired coach, who wasn't in awe of the future HOFers around him, would see that we must rebound better, that Williams is our best rebounder, so Williams should start or at least play big minutes. Daniels, Hudson, Giddens all move well, get them into games early and for extended minutes.
If we lose to teams with our young guys on the floor, learning the game this fall, we'll be better for it in the spring. If we lose with our big guns getting a little more arthritic and less imposing each week, we've had it.
This team has lots of nice pieces, but it will take ingenuity to put them together. I don't have a crystal ball, but how about starting RR, LH, PP, SW, and KP and rotate them out gradually as MD, RA, RW, JG, EH and BW come in? Tom

Hellz boys don't scrap the whole thing yet. Let's wait a few games and see. Got a lot of talent and drive on this team.

upforglory

I agree completely. it's really not whom starts anyway it's who finishes.
So we start Williams for Pierce and let KG go out to the 3 spot. Or Williams for KG. Would Pierce or KG even accept it?

Imagine after 5-6 minutes being able to come sub in either one of them. heck I'd be darn tempted to start Daniels over Ray Allen too.

Let Rondo lose with a couple guys that can run with um. I know it will probably never happen but even 30 minutes per game for PP KG and RA is too much in a back to back nights.

beat

I've had a love-hate relationship with the +/- stat since the 60s, when I used to keep it myself during games. (What a nightmare to do it manually.) I love the stat in looking at player combinations and hate the stat when it comes to evaluating individuals.

In a mood to explore the more "romantic" aspects of the game, I just accessed 82games.com, which (among other things) presents +/- stats for the five-player combinations playing the most minutes for each team. It's early in the season, and the sample sizes of minutes are not large, so these stats should be viewed with caution. But one has to start somewhere.

Following are the number of points each listed combination of players gains or loses versus opponents per minute of time on the floor:

Rondo-Daniels-Pierce-Williams-Wallace......+1.31 (points gained per minute)
House-R.Allen-Daniels-Williams-Wallace.....+0.55 (points gained per minute)
Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins........+0.20 (points gained per minute)
Rondo-Daniels-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins........+0.03 (points gained per minute)
Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Wallace.........-0.19 (points lost per minute)
House-Daniels-Pierce-Williams-Wallace........-0.31 (points lost per minute)
Rondo-Daniels-Pierce-Garnett-Wallace.........-0.35 (points lost per minute)

Despite the small sample sizes, there are some interesting general indications:

• Only three of the combinations produce anything approaching a significant net gain in points over the competition. (Actually there are three "garbage time units" that had modest plus figures, but I didn't report them because of relatively tiny minutes and the misleading effects of garbage time minutes.)

• The top two combinations include Daniels, Williams and Wallace. This fact may be overly influenced by the "euphoric" first few games, but the combination intuitively makes sense: slashing, rebounding, spacing/perimeter threat.

• Integrating Daniels with four starters (replacing Ray) seems to create a unit that basically stays level with the competition.

• Integrating Wallace and Daniels with three starters appears less productive.

• One gets the feeling (more of a hunch at this early juncture) that Sheed can be a particularly influential factor (pro or con) in the fortunes of whatever combination he's playing with; and it may take time for Doc to determine how to employ his services most judiciously.

• So far, the starter playing the most minutes with the bench has been Pierce, and that doesn't necessarily make for great results if he's the ONLY starter playing with the bench.

• The starters rank third among the combinations. Generally speaking (and based on a larger sample than for the rest of the combinations), it seems that the starters average a one-point advantage over opponents roughly every five minutes on the floor. I'd love to compare this stat with that of the starters in 2007-08, but I can't find the appropriate archive on 82games.com. However, if one looks at the current Celtics starting five versus the five-man combinations currently playing the most minutes for other selected teams, the Celts are in the middle of the pack:

Orlando...............+1.15
Indiana...............+0.73
Portland..............+0.42
Boston................+0.20
Atlanta................+0.16
L.A. Lakers..........+0.15 (without Gasol)
San Antonio.........+0.10
Cleveland.............-0.04

I've seen suggestions that the Celtics start monkeying around with the starting lineup. But this is no time to play "toy soldiers" and experimenting with the team's strength. It's time to make that strength more imposing because, without more difference-making from the five of KG/Perk/Pierce/Ray/Rondo, how far does one realistically think the Celtics will go this year? Among other things, elevating Daniels, Williams or Sheed to the starting lineup could negate the contributions of some other fairly productive combinations.

I'll finish with my earlier caveat. Small sample sizes to date. But it could be revealing to keep track of this stat over time.

I hope no one minds, but I think I'll start a thread with this post.

Sam

Sam

I confess I've been monkeying around!

BUT I do believe we need to get the bench in a lot sooner than the 9-10 minute mark (at least some of them) as early as 5-6 minutes in. One can argue that they need to find a rhythm but how long does one wait when we have good bench players. Perhaps taking a cold ray Allen out and then putting him back in against a lesser second team player might bring him out of the funk a little quicker.

The combo stats are interesting and it will be fun to watch them during the next stretch of games as the "sample" will get larger.

beat

MdCelt

I am with you on pg eddie. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is with that. I also think it contributes to his shooting funk in a big way. Giant spotlight on his weakness is draining his strength. He seems miserable. He is such a weapon when used right.

Jeb

Jeb,

My semi-rant involved who starts the game, not how long they're all in there.

I agree that I'd like to see Daniels replace Ray sooner. I'd then like to see Ray, Eddie and Sheed all play together as part of the bench brigade. The double threat of those three spacing the floor and Williams and Daniels to go to the hoop would be really interesting.

Sam

Hey Sam

I think Ray is really playing well. I like that line up. I think if the rest of the fellas step it up a tad Ray will get even better. He never seems tired to me.


Sam how do you feel about what we are seeing with KG? Do you think the surgery slowed him down some for good or is it just conditioning?

Jeb

Jeb,

I'd use the word "tentative" to describe what I'm seeing in KG. He seems to be picking his spots to attempt his patented explosions (some of which are working better than others). I watch him carefully when he lands after jumping, and he seems to land consciously on the uninjured leg first and sometimes even falls down rather intentionally—apparently to keep that knee from withstanding the shock.

If there's any truth in those things, it almost doesn't matter to me whether or not he's actually injured. Just the tentative nature of his approach suggests to me that it's possible for him to play with his instinctive sense of abandon.

My guess (only a sheer guess) is that that same tentativeness is having some influence on what the rest of the starters can expect from him. I think it's resulting in less instinctive play in general (and more thinking) from that unit.

The good news could be twofold. 1. He could continue to improve and to prove to himself that he's ready to go full-bore. 2. They're got the vast majority of a season to adapt to playing with a very good teammate rather than a superhero. Barring a relapse, I don't foresee any negative scenairos on the KG horizon. If things continue pretty much as they are (hopefully the worst that could happen), it'll just be a question of whether a somewhat modified KG, coupled with the rest of a very veteran cast and a season full of rehearsal, will be sufficient to deal with all the challenges to another championship.

I don't know whether I answered your question, but I wouldn't feel qualified or comfortable going any further out on a limb.

Sam

Nope Sam no limb that is about what I am thinking too. Man it's scary to get hurt. He plays hoop for a living and cares about it with all his giant heart. I think he is playing his way into shape and I think the rest may very well be mental. The more he plays without another incident the better his mental state will be. As he starts to trust his health and adapt to whatever limitations he is to have permanently and the team adjust around him it will all start to work.

It's been said by people smarter than me on this forum that this is a great time of year to be working out kinks. After some time has passed from the last loss I am more and more convinced that they are right.

I also really think D14 is onto something when he says that sooner or later their giant instincts need to take over and they need to get in the cut and quit thinking.

I still feel very hopeful this team can be very dangerous and with a few breaks can bring home the bacon.

Jeb,

There's no question that, for a veteran team, instinctive basketball is the best basketball. And good point that, the longer KG experiences no adverse effects on his knee, the more confidence he'll gain in that knee.

Sam

Guys, this all very typical of an aging team. They are pacing themselves when they may not even realize it. This Celtics team in the 1st half is a much better team than the Celtics in the 2nd half. Player movement, ball movement, defensing the 3-point shot, shooting % all deteriorate in the 2nd half. This was noticeable the last few years, but is so much more obvious this season.

The Celts want to blow you out in the 3rd quarter. If this doesn't happen, look out for a meltdown. And not by the bench. By the starters.

Doc is going to have to intersperse young legs with our aging vets if regular season is going to be really successful. These Celts would rather the playoffs started next month. Sorry fellas, unfortunately you're going to have to earn that playoff spot. Turning it on and off just doesn't seem to be working. Playing 48 minutes of Celtics basketball is all it will take to turn this thing around.

Go Celts!

Two losses back to back for different reasons is just part of the development process for this team.

Doc still has not figured out how to use his rotations effectively based on situational basketball. The other night Williams was really playing well and did not appear to be tired and Doc took him out of the game. Eddie has been struggling because he has spent more time on the ball than off the ball.

Both Paul Pierce and Ray Allen need to play less minutes. Paul's minutes are down about 3 per game over last year while Ray Allen is only playing about 1 minutes less. Both of those players should max out around 30 MPG on average although in some games depending on the circumstances they may need to play more but overall they are both in need or more rest since neither plays at a high level of intensity through long stretches when they are on the court.

Doc needs to take Eddie off the ball and pair him with Rondo as much as possible or even try Hudson as the BU PG. I think Hudson could really become a solid back up if given minutes early in the game at the point.

Williams is playing 16 MPG and is our best rebounder per minutes play so a few more minutes from him would be nice to see.

Rondo plays only 32 MPG and should be playing more minutes. If you look at minutes played by PG's Rondo is at the lower end of the spectrum and since the offense tends to stutter when he is not in the game he should be in their more teamed with some of the rotation players which I think will make them a more effective unit.

There are just some of the observations I've seen early on and it appears that Doc is even pulling back a bit in terms of playing his bench.

The Celtics bench is averaging 80.7 minutes per game. In the 8 games that the Celtics have won the bench averaged 83.9 minutes and for the 3 losses the bench only played 75.7 minutes.

In back to back losses against Atlanta and Indiana the bench played only 73.5 minutes. Keep in mind that these games were against young athletic teams. The reason to have a deep bench is to use them for situations just like this.

Doc is a good coach but he tends to lean on his starters when things get close. We have a very good bench filled with quality players and they need to get consistent quality minutes if the Celtics expect to be there at the end.

dboss

dboss, I agree with most of your analysis. I said the first week of the year I would rather see Allen come off the bench and start Daniels. My thoughts haven't changed.

Also, I would go after Nocioni. Sign him up and trade Allen this season or next. Allen has become a consistent negative when he is not hitting his jumpshot and he defininately has become more inconsistent in making those. He is not a good ball handler or passer, I feel Nocioni is underrated. He is a tough team player. He has more plusses than Allen at this point, and has more productive years

Next year Allen is a year older. Money is better spent on Nocioni in future years. But I feel Ainge will not spend the money now. He will use it and expiring contracts on next season's free agents.

Go Celtics!

SdCelt

Allen has a pretty good floor game. I think he has been playing pretty well this year. He is taking it to the rim and getting to the line.

It is an interesting thought to bring him off the bench.

Wow, I cant believe some of what I am reading here.

-Williams, a guy that no one even wanted on the team when we got him is now deserving of some of KG or Sheeds minutes?
-Doc doesn’t know how to use rotations?

Or the best of all

-Nocioni is a better player than Ray Allen?

Ray Allen is nearly +14 this season. He is shooting 48% from the field and driving to the hoop more than ever. Is he a step slower on defense than in the past, yes. But with the game on the line, who do you want with the last shot?

There is no way Nocioni is a better player than Ray Allen – that is just silly.

Looks like a RESOUNDING NO to NOcioni!-MD.

MD –

If that was directed at me, I think you are misreading my comments.

Nocioni is a solid player and I would love to add him if the cost was Giddens, Scal and TA….absolutely. He could play 20 mpg, beat the crap out of the other team’s star guard or small forward, score a little, rebound a little and give Pierce and Allen a rest down the stretch. I like him a lot. I just happen to like Ray Allen a lot more. I wasn’t aware it was an either or proposition.

In the remaining 87% of the season, there's loads of time for Doc to get a much better read on productive player combinations. That takes more time when a team has a passel of qualified players than when it has only a few. Injuries (hopefully not serious ones) will inevitably occur. Minutes distribution is still in a state of flux. The advent of Nocioni or anyone else could be reflective of short-term and/or long-term planning. KG may or may not reach his former capabilities. Doc may still be adding plays for Pierce and/or Ray to the offense. Any or all of the Three Amigos may be pacing themselves more than in previous years with an eye toward the playoffs. The bench may or may not continue to gain more points on the opposition than the starters do. Etc., etc., etc.

These are just a few of the tons of variables that exist. There is no certainty except for the following:

This is an evolving team and will continue to be evolving team, at least long into the season if not throughout it.

Sam

I have to admit, I would rather have Nocioni on the Celts than Allen. I like Allen mostly because he is a gentleman and a professional. He plays great when he plays great. However there are a lot of games when he is not knocking down his shot. I don't care what his shooting percentage is, there are too many empty minutes in his game.

I FEEL Nocioni's game has fewer empty minutes. He doesn't need offensive plays set up for him to score. He is a good rebounder, defensive ball hawk, and antagonizer. He has a very good 3-point shot, but will drive the lane and not avoid contact. He is younger and defeinately a team man.

Last year in the playoffs he was a major thorn in the Celtics playoff aspirations.

I realize I am in a small minority with these thoughts, but every game I see Nocioni play on ESPN or TBS he impresses me. I feel the Celtics need a shot in the arm; an energy infusion and Nocioni would provide that.

I am a realist, though, and feel Ainge will conserve money and expiring contracts to negotiate next season's free agent crop.

Go Celtics!