Thoughts on a 5-Game Losing Streak

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Post by bobheckler Wed Mar 27, 2013 3:05 pm

His thoughts first.


http://www.csnne.com/blog/celtics-talk/thoughts-five-game-losing-streak



Thoughts on a five-game losing streak
March 27, 2013, 1:45 pm



Can Doc Rivers get his team to turn up the intensity, and does it matter?
(USA Today Sports)


We’re not going to spend too much time on last night’s game because that would just be cruel. And anyway, it’s not like there’s much that went into Boston’s 15-point loss. That’s kind of the point. No KG + No Courtney Lee + minimal energy and execution will result in what we all unfortunately witnessed. What more can you say?

Instead, let’s take a look at this five-game losing streak on the whole, with a few thoughts each player involved.

Paul Pierce: Pierce has averaged 20.6 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists over these last five games, and we shouldn’t take that for granted. We should find at least a few minutes every night to step back and breathe in the Paul Pierce Experience. You never know when it might be over.

And with that, three quick thoughts on Paul.

1. He’s turning the ball over like a mad man. In fact, he’s got 23 turnovers during this losing streak, which is the most he’s had during any five-game stretch this season. Some of that is a result of wanting/being asked to do a little too much in the absence of others, but there have also been a few horrendous passes in there; some really awful decisions on Paul’s part. And while he’s certainly not alone in that department, he’s the leader. He sets the tone.

The short-handed Celtics can’t afford to waste possessions, but over this last week — starting with the late game collapse against Miami — the team has been infested by an overall lack urgency and sense of sloppiness. If that’s going to change (and it needs to) it’s going to start at the top.

2. If the Celtics continue to struggle in the absence of KG, Doc should really consider giving Pierce a little extra time off as well. What’s the point of having him labor through 36 minutes (like he did last night) if the supporting cast isn’t ready (or able) to pick up the rest of the slack?

It’s one thing if the C’s were still in danger of missing the playoffs, but they’re not. Even if Boston loses every one of their remaining 12 games, the Sixers would still have to go 9-3 to steal the spot.

3. This a slightly random anecdote from last night, and it doesn’t reflect on Pierce as much as it does the current state of this team. Still, I found it interesting/slightly troubling:

With 1:35 left in the first half, JR Smith connected on layup to give the Knicks a 55-40 lead, and the Celtics came back down the floor in search of something — ANYTHING — to give them a boost before halftime. Right on cue, Pierce drove to the hoop, drew a foul and willed it in for a potential and-1.

Anyway, the crowd reacted about as well as they could given how the previous 23 minutes had unfolded. But Pierce’s teammates didn’t flinch. At the time, he was out there with Avery Bradley, Jeff Green, Terrence Williams and Jordan Crawford, and not one of them offered a fist bump, high five, slap on the ass or any acknowledgement of a job well done. Even as Pierce slowly walked through the paint on his way to the line, his teammates were literally staring at their shoes, each one lost in their own head. If you have the game on DVR, you should go back and take a look for yourself. It was pretty strange. And while it’s not the end of the world, it’s not a good sign.

Jordan Crawford: No one can deny that Crawford has talent, but that talent in no way makes the Celtics a better or even remotely enjoyable team (unless you have a thing for failed half-court alley-oop attempts in garbage time). This depends a lot on Courtney Lee’s health, but I don’t see how Crawford finds his way into the playoff rotation. Or if he does, I don’t see how it will result in anything short of a nightmare.

By the way, I know KG’s ankle is getting all the attention, but how much do the Celtics miss Courtney Lee?

Against Memphis on Saturday, Avery Bradley did his best shut down Mike Conley, while Jerryd Bayless went off for 30 on Crawford and Jason Terry. Last night, while Bradley wasn’t at his best, he rendered Ray Felton and Jason Kidd relatively ineffective, while JR Smith smoked Boston’s shooting guards for 32.

Jason Terry: Terry’s season has taken a weird turn.

Of course, the on-court inconsistency is nothing new, but as of late, he hasn’t exactly carried himself like supreme teammate that he’s proven to be in the past. Most notably, there was his comment to reporters after the loss in Dallas about what he was thinking in the aftermath of Courtney Lee’s ankle injury: ”Get your ass up,” Terry said. “If your bone is sticking out of there . . . I don’t know . . . I don’t know how he’s feeling right now, but we’re trying to win a game . . . I mean . . . I don’t know.”

Then last night, with Lee still hurting, Doc Rivers started Jordan Crawford because Terry didn’t want to: “It was more that Jet does not like to start,” Rivers said of the decision. “He likes coming off the bench.”

“You could just see it,” Rivers continued. “He likes being in his role, especially when he knows Courtney will be back and other guys will be back and he’d rather just stay in his own role.”

To be honest, this isn’t an enormous deal. You can understand why Terry would ideally want to stick to his big-picture role. And it’s worth noting that, watching him on the bench last night, Terry was every bit as into the game as always; he was vocal and upbeat with his teammates, and did his best to get the crowd involved when necessary. Still, nothing about what the Celtics are going through right now is ideal. Everyone has to sacrifice.

And either way, the bottom line is that Terry has a ton riding on these playoffs. Guys who talk as much as he does don’t have the luxury of coming up as short as he has for the Celtics this season.

If Rasheed Wallace was able to win fans back with a memorable playoff run, Terry certainly can, too. But that’s exactly what it will take.

Avery Bradley: Over this five-game losing streak, Bradley is 15 for 52 (.288) from the field with nine assists and 11 turnovers. There have also been more defensive lapses than we’re accustomed to, along with more missed layups than your average middle school rec game.

"Yeah, he's struggling," Rivers said of Bradley. "Listen, Avery's trying his best, his shot is struggling right now. He can shoot the ball, but when you're thinking about it, he's clearly going through something. So we're going to try and get him through that."

One possible explanation: Bradley’s a shooting guard who’s playing point guard. And while he certainly looks more comfortable now than he did back in early February, he’s still being asked to excel at a position that doesn’t fit his skill set. And I’d be surprised if the extra pressure of having to run an offense isn’t slowly chipping away at what Avery does best.

So what can the Celtics do?

1. When Courtney Lee’s healthy, have him bring up the ball more often and give Bradley a chance to be Bradley.

2. Next year . . . finally . . . for the love of God . . . SIGN A BACK UP POINT GUARD.

Jeff Green: Green followed up last week’s 43 point/seven rebound effort against Miami with 35 points and 10 rebounds TOTAL over his next three games.

This was in large part due to increased attention from the opposition. After watching him light up the Heat, teams finally started overplaying Green to his right, and clogging the lane whenever he had the ball. At this point, everyone knows that he doesn’t have a mid-range jumper and is a relatively limited passer. If they take away the drive, they takeaway so much of Jeff Green. If he doesn’t adjust, he’s going to struggle.

And with Green, there’s also continued lack of understanding on the defensive end. That played a role in him being benched down the stretch of the New Orleans game, and Rivers’ frustration with Green’s defense (and Green in general) has been evident over the course of this losing streak. No one gets lectured and scolded more on the sidelines – or even while he’s in the game — than Green.

And yeah, he had a great line last night. It’s hard to complain about a guy putting up 19 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. But if you just watched that game, and never looked at a box score, you walked away unimpressed with Green’s overall impact. I’m not saying he’s the reason why the Celtics lost, but in order for this team (as presently constituted) to consistently win, he needs to do more.

Brandon Bass: In the land of the Celtics, there’s no greater insult than comparing a player to Mark Blount. And while I don’t think that Bass deserves that distinction, the fact that I’ve heard the Blount comparison thrown around more than once this season tells you something about where Bass is at.

If anything, he’s just been a non-factor, at least compared to last year. His minutes are down, his production (per 36 minutes) is down. His man-to-man defense comes in handy from time to time, but overall he’s just kind of there. He’ll hit an early jumper or two. Maybe sneak in a dunk somewhere along the way. But for the most part, he’s wallpaper.

The team would love to get more out of him, but at the end of the day, Brandon Bass isn’t going to make or break the season.

Chris Wilcox: Here’s Paul Pierce after last night’s game, on how the Celtics can get back on track:

“We just gotta figure it out,” he said. “Some nights we put four smalls on the court, and that’s what it is. That’s what you saw tonight. Guys have to do a better job rebounding, roles are expanding, you know for the guys, every year you have players that sit on the bench that want to play more. Well here’s the opportunity.”

And this is just my opinion, but it sure seems like Pierce was talking about Wilcox.

As you remember, Wilcox started the season slow, got down on himself and his role on the team, struggled on defense and fell out of favor with Doc.

At the trade deadline, he found himself on the way to DC in the original Jordan Crawford deal, but used his early Bird Rights to block the trade. Afterwards, Wilcox met with Doc and Danny, recommitted himself to the Celtics cause and quickly became the player that this team so desperately needed.

He had 14 points and eight rebounds in his first game after the deadline, and that next week had consecutive games with eight points and seven rebounds (a win over Golden State) and four points, six rebounds and two blocks (a win over Philly). Wilcox played more than 20 minutes in three of the four games after the deadline, and always found a way to make an impact.

But lately, he’s found his way right back into the doghouse. In the last 11 games, he’s topped 20 minutes only once. In the eight games before last night, Wilcox had nights when he only played 10 minutes (loss to OKC), nine minutes (loss to Charlotte) and six minutes (loss to NO). And then against the Knicks, with Kevin Garnett on the shelf and the Celtics left without a center, Wilcox played only nine minutes and recorded zero points and zero rebounds.

His playing time against the Knicks was in part a result of the overall “small ball” nature of that game. At the same time, it’s also hard to fault Wilcox too much, because those minutes are entirely up to Doc. But at some point during this KG-less stretch, Wilcox will get another chance — a chance he so desperately wanted back in November and December — to prove himself as a worthy and reliable member of this team. He needs to step up.

Terrence Williams: He won’t see any significant minutes in the playoffs, but there’s something refreshing about Williams’ game. I don’t know, maybe it’s just the fact that he’s not Jordan Crawford? Either way, Williams can play. He’s a willing and skilled passer, a decent shooter and when given the chance, he usually contributes. I wouldn’t mind seeing him get a few more minutes over these next two weeks.

Deejlick Whitolph: Shavlik Randolph and DJ White aren’t going to play in the postseason. Not unless the Celtics are down big or Gino’s warming up back stage. But I don’t see why they can’t eat up some quality minutes down the stretch. At the very least, you’ll get consistent effort. And that would be a welcome sight after these last few games.

An even more welcome sight? A win.

The Celtics are back at it tonight in Cleveland.





bob




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Post by Sam Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:05 pm

Aside from Paul Pierce, which Celtics player is CURRENTLY fulfilling (and maybe even surpassing) what is expected of him? I can think of only one, despite what the author of this article thinks: Jordan Crawford. Since he arrived in Boston, he has become less of a black hole and more aware of this teammates. Last night, he was in a three-way tie for most Celtics assists with 6. And they weren't of the happenstance variety. Most of them actually created opportunities for teammates.

I'd probably include Courtney Lee too, if he hadn't been among the missing recently, as well as Shavlik and Williams if they had sustained their current rate of play over more minutes.

And what's the one thing that these guys have in common that seems to be lacking among the rest of the roster? Consistently energetic focus and commitment, that's
what! Green has it in spurts, but that is not enough to say he's meeting expectations.. Bass, Terry, Wilcox, and Bradley are the biggest perpetrators.

When I was a kid, one of the popular cods drinks was Moxie. I believe it's still available, though its popularity has waned. It wasn't nearly as sweet as typical Pepsi or root beer. It was thought of as a no-nonsense beverage. Through clever advertising, Moxie became a synonym for "guts." If a person had guts, (s)he was said to have a lot of Moxie.

If I were Doc, Shavlik, White, Crawford, Williams, Pierce, and (if he's available) Lee would get the lion's share of the minutes tonight. (If Lee's not available, I'd substitute Green.) I'd let it be known that those consistently expending the greatest effort and playing the smartest ball would get the most minutes in the foreseeable future.

This probably sounds excessive or even stupid. But what's really excessively stupid is that this is the least liikeable, non-Celtic-like team I've seen on the parquet since KG came to town. And, coming from a fan with upper-tier Celtics passion, that's a monumentally disturbing thing to have to say. And I do not say it lightly.

112288 and I were chatting today and agreed that something of which we're not aware must be happening behind the scenes. Perhaps hints as to what it might be are imbedded in some of the player quotes reported in this article. Some of the fixes seem ridiculously simple. Get the strugglers some easy shots. I define an "easy shot" as not more than one-eighth of an inch from the basket. Putting teammates in a position to succumb to the "bombs away" mentality is not helping.

Whatever might be the real underlying problems, perhaps all that's needed to point the ship in the right direction is to beat the living crappola out of someone. Here's hoping it's tonight.

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Post by mrkleen09 Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:16 pm

Sam

Other this his recent shooting slump - in what way is Bradley not meeting your expectations?
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Post by Sam Thu Mar 28, 2013 1:20 am

Mrkleen,

• He hasn't been his usual defensive presence (although he showed some signs of improvement down the stretch tonight). He used to exhibit great footwork in smothering an opponent in the open floor; I've seldom seen that in the past few games, although I saw some positive signs late in tonight's game. And, frankly, I've never thought his defense inside the arc was anything to write home about. He too frequently gets beaten along the baseline or on the pick-and-roll.

• He's been making terrible shot selections..

• Just like all other Celtics guards, he has been asked to play some point, and he's been abysmal. In tonight's game as an example, he made exactly two passes out of at least 20-25 that advanced the ball—and they were routine entry passes.

• He typically pushes the ball (that's a good thing) until he nears the three point arc, sees defenders, and stops dead in his tracks. He then either passes laterally (often
putting the burden on a big to initiate an offensive play); or he dribble-drives (usually into traffic near the basket) and winds up heaving a wild layup with zero percentage probability of scoring; or he passes the ball back to the arc where he does pick up an occasional assist.

• He has virtually abandoned the baseline back cuts that used to earn him nifty inside passes for buckets. He's now become more of a three-point shooter. He's number 4 on the team in terms of three-point attempts per 36 minutes despite being number 7 on the team in terms of three-point shooting percentage (.316).

• I know you specified "other than his recent shooting slump," but that's a little like asking, "Other than the shooting, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?"
(I wish John Wilkes Booth had suffered from the same shooting percentage Avery does; at least Abe would have had a fighting chance) Avery's recent shooting slump is a legitimate concern for me. His field goal percentage of .401 places him 12th among all currently active Celtics players despite the fact that he ranks fifth in terms of field
goal attempts per 36 minutes. I doubt his 1 for 7 performance tonight has improved that .401 percentage.

Other than what I've mentioned above, I think he's doing fine.

I like Avery—but mainly when his open court defense is practically off the charts, because he offers very little else in terms of consistently positive impact on the
team. Off-the-charts defense hasn''t been the case with Avery lately.

Right now, I'd much rather see Crawford than today's Avery on the floor much of the time because, as things currently stand, Crawford is a more positive catalyst on the team and is displaying increasingly fewer drawbacks over time.

I'd also prefer seeing Courtney Lee than today's Avery out there because I see Courtney as a more complete player. My game observations show Courtney with more diversified and wiser shot selection, open-court defensive skills just a notch below Avery's, halfcourt defensive skills a bit better than Avery's, better rebounding skills, and relatively better ability to run a team (although neither of them would qualify as anything close to a competent point guard).

As for stats, Courtney leads Avery (though by a small margin in some cases) on a "per-36-minute" basis in field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage, free throw percentage, rebounds, steals, and ability to protect the ball. (They're virtually tied in assists).

I hope Avery can turn his game around and can improve on all fronts, and I suspect his relative lack of experience may mean that he's more caught up in the team's recent malaise than more veteran players are. I'm just not certain how such a uni-dimensional player can consistently play a key role on a contending team. His positive dimension depends so much on his athleticism that I'm a bit concerned about how long he can sustain that level at a high level of proficiency.

Go Avery, and Go Celtics!

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Post by tardust Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:03 am

Sam,
Funny but I have been thinking the same thing about AB. Actually I would like to see AB and Lee split one guard's duties and their number one objective is to hound the opposing player for 48 non stop minutes. I wouldn't mind seeing Crawford stuck in the starting lineup because of his offence. Yes he will be out of control a couple times a game but thats OK. He is adapting more each game IMO. With Crawford, Green and Pierce playing we have scorers out there and lately thats what we need. Lee and AB could pitch in with more open shots in that lineup. Add KG and thats not a bad group.
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Post by mrkleen09 Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:53 am

Sam

I guess I have different expectations of AB. I see his offense as a "bonus", one which has pleasantly surprised me over the last few months. Aside from the past week, his shooting has been better than I expected - and he has shown an overall grasp of the offense that I didnt expect from such a young player, in his 3rd month back on the court.

As far as I can tell - Bradley was always a SG, who was seen as a defensive stopper - and who could run those corner cuts to the rim while the true PG - got him the ball. Clearly, he cant run corner cuts when he is the primary ball handler, so not sure I get that criticism. Considering he has never played significant minutes at PG, he is doing a remarkable job taking care of the ball (55 TO in 40 games is an amazing number)

As his minutes increase and his responsibilities on the offensive end increase, his ability to press his man for 40+ minutes a night decreases. Not sure why this is a surprise to anyone.

Again, maybe you see AB as some front line starter with superstar potential - but I dont. I think he is finding his way in a completely new role. Taking good care of the ball. Playing good D most of the time, great D some of the time. For a guy who is 22 - and who is 3 months back from a season ending injury - I think he is doing great.
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Post by Sam Fri Mar 29, 2013 3:06 am

Mrkleen,

No, I definitely don't expect Avery to be a superstar. Definiitely not! I do see him currently as a victim of any attempt to put him in the position where he's expected to distribute the ball or run the team.

The reason Avery has has relatively few turnovers is not because he's skilled in protecting the ball. For the most part, he tries only the safest passes. Unfortunately, a constant diet of passes with no risk involved doesn't usually create offense. On virtually every possession which starts with him handling the ball, he passes it off (usually laterally or backwards) to someone else to initiate the play. He makes only the safest, least creative possible pass and then runs for the corner. I repeat my statement that he almost never advances the ball by pass, and I invite responses to the contrary because I watch that aspect of his game very closely. Just look at my comments on last night's Game-on Thread.

If he were recording only 1.5 assists per game while doing even a decent job of ball distribution, I'd be happy. But that's not the case. Not in the slightest!

How can he press his man "40+ minutes a night" if he's averaging only 29 minutes a night this season and about 35 most recently? As for increased responsibilities in the offensive end, there are virtually none. His only increased responsibility is frequently to bring the ball upcourt, throw it to a teammate, and scoot for the corner as the teammate initiates the play. That teammate is often Paul Pierce, who comes closer than Avery or any other Celtic to the guy who's currently running the team.

If fatigue were a factor (and Avery's a pretty strong, young guy to be fatigued in 35 minutes), his lack of pressing like he used to would probably become increasingly noticeable as a game wears on. But, in fact, it's as noticeable in the first quarter as in the last quarter.

As for his offensive output being a bonus, it might be true if he were playing the kind of defense he is capable of. But he's not doing so.

Moreover, he has upped the frequency of his shooting by 13% since last year, while his shooting percentage has plummeted from .498 to .397 and his percentage in shooting threes has careened from .407 to .317. As i said earlier, he ranks fifth on the team in shots per game but 12th in shooting percentage. Somehow, I'm not getting the feeling of a "bonus" as much as a source of increased "empty" possessions on the part of the Celtics.

Avery may very well have extenuating circumstances. I'm sure he's at least as frustrated as some of us. I certainly hope he's not physically hurting any more than the normal wear and tear all players experience. I'm delighted that he (hopefully) recovered so quickly, and I'm sure a lot of that was due to his hard work. That's why I'm not criticizing him as a person, and I'm not criticizing his effort.

I'm criticizing the situation, whatever the cause. Perhaps Avery's minutes should be reduced, and I'd be happy to suggest candidates to give him more relief. (Hopefully, the return of Courtney Lee will help.) Almost certainly, Avery shouldn't be put in the position to be a ball distributor or to run the team, and I'd be most happy to suggest candidates to replace him in those roles.

I hope Avery gets back on track soon. Whether or not that happens, in the absence of a true PG, I believe Avery would be the last active Celtic under 6' 6" that I'd designate for that duty.

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Post by bobheckler Fri Mar 29, 2013 12:49 pm

Bradley's in a slump. His shots aren't dropping, he's not finishing at the rim AND his defense has fallen off. He does not press full court all the time anymore, like he used to.

We should keep in mind this is his first real complete season. He barely played his first season, only started getting regular minutes the second half of last season due to Ray's injury and is now playing more minutes per game than ever. He might have just hit a mental and physical wall that he needs to fight through. Rookies hit this wall regularly. The NBA season is twice as long as they are used to and the play is bigger, faster and more physical. This is AB's 3rd season, but this is the first one where he has really had to play an entire season with starter minutes.


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