Millsap or Jefferson?

At the trade deadline, with Rajon Rondo's season already ended due to injury, it was widely believed that the Boston Celtics looked around mostly as sellers. Sure, their one deal brought in Jordan Crawford, but most reports about Boston's activity centered around president of basketball operations Danny Ainge gauging the markets for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

Yet according to CSNNE sideline reporter Greg Dickerson, Ainge was also looking to add some legitimate talent to the Celtics frontcourt. Though Grantland's Zach Lowe suggests no deal was ever close, Ainge made calls to the Utah Jazz about acquiring either Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap -- and Jackie MacMullan added Thursday night on CSNNE that Ainge could continue trying to land Millsap and/or Jefferson this summer.

"Listen, we all know they love Paul Millsap," said MacMullan. "We all know that. Can they put together a sign-and-trade package? Can they sign him outright, can they clear enough money? I don't think so. But we also know that Al Jefferson is out there. Do they take Al Jefferson back, who's not going to be as coveted as Paul Millsap for obvious reasons, injury history, and so on. Is that plausible?"

It would take be exceedingly difficult for the Celtics to clear enough cap space to sign Millsap or Jefferson outright. The 6-foot-8 Millsap averaged 14.6 points and 7.1 rebounds per game last season in Utah over 30.4 minutes per game, a slight downtick in playing time that can be attributed to the Jazz' crowded frontcourt. It's that crowded frontcourt which leads people to believe that either Millsap or Jefferson, and maybe both, are destined to leave Utah as free agents this summer.

Though Jefferson (17.8 points, 9.2 rebounds per game) actually posted better traditional numbers, Millsap probably stands to be more desired by other clubs. MacMullan hinted at an injury history, but the reality is that Jefferson's health issues haven't reared themselves in several years; he's only missed a total of nine games over the past three seasons (and 15 over the past four). The more convincing case against acquiring him is that his defense leaves quite a lot to be desired. As Lowe described while examining Utah's unique situation in March, "We have almost a decade of evidence now that Jefferson's failings on defense outweigh his very real value on offense." Nonetheless, Jefferson has played for the Celtics before, and still seems to have a good relationship with those in the organization, including Rivers and Ainge.

Millsap likewise will never draw comparisons to Bill Russell (even from Tommy Heinsohn), but the Jazz' defense has actually been significantly better with him on the court during six of his seven seasons, according to Basketball-Reference.com (the lone exception notably coming this past year). He's not a perfect player either, but he helps as an inside-outside scoring threat, and in the past (though not as much in recent seasons) has demonstrated the ability to be a plus rebounder.

In a move that came as a surprise to many, Utah decided not to trade either Jefferson or Millsap prior to the trade deadline. According to Lowe, the market just wasn't there, and the Jazz weren't willing to sacrifice either one in what would have basically amounted to a straight salary dump. Perhaps more surprising, Lowe suggested, the Jazz didn't look to trade either one before last season -- when they potentially could have netted a high first-round draft pick for Millsap.

Utah isn't perceived to be against letting the free agent big men walk for nothing, so the Celtics would likely have to offer something of real value in any possible sign-and-trade. Matching salaries without forcing Utah to take back any unwanted money could be a real issue, but Ainge has demonstrated elite creativity in similar situations during the past (see: his sign-and-trade deal for Courtney Lee, which seemed like a terrific idea at the time).


bob


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6'8", 245# Millsap's /36mpg numbers last season are:

17.2ppg, 49%fg%, 13-39 (33.3%) from 3, 74%ft%, 8.4rebs, 3.0assists vs 2.1TOs, 1.5stls, 1.2blks and 3.5pfs.

Here's 6'10", 265# Jefferson's /36mpg from last season:

19.4ppg, 49.4%fg%, 2-17 (.118) from 3 (probably buzzerbeating heaves), 77%ft%, 10.1rebs, 2.3assists vs 1.5TOs, 1.1stls, 1.2blks, 2.4pfs.

They're both 28 years old, but Big Al has been in the league a long time.

I've always thought Jefferson was really a PF that had been forced into being a C, but he has played C everywhere he has played, so I guess he's a center.

Here's another factor: Jefferson made $15M last year while Millsap made $7.2M. Is Big Al worth twice what Paul Millsap?


bob


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