The State of the Celtics

What we've witnessed in the past week-or-so is obviously just the beginning—albeit a pretty significant one.  A few very preliminary observations:

• Danny has made an auspicious beginning in freeing up cap space—both short-term and long-term.  Jason Terry, in particular, could have been a millstone around their necks.

• He also has collected a number of possible trading chips, which is somewhat reminiscent of his tactic that netted KG and Ray Allen.  The chips are probably collectively better than those they had in 2007 except that the current crop is missing a marquee prospect like Al Jefferson.

• For my money, Reggie Evans may hsve the most impact of the incoming Brooklyn players.  Despite being a horrendous free throw shooter, last season he averaged 60% more rebounds per minute of playing time than any member of this past season's Celtics rotation.  If Humphries sticks around and can come reasonably close to duplicating his rebounding prowess of the past, the Celtics would have a pretty good-rebounding trio at PF in Sully, Humphries and Evans.  Add Josh Smith at SF, and wouldn't it be ironic if rebounding became an advantage for the Celtics?  (Of course, the #1 question is whether they can find a true first-string center who can rebound.  The Suns got Alex Len in the draft.  Might they give up Marcin Gortat?)

• Add Bass and occasionally Green at PF, and there will  a logjam at the position.  All things considered, Bass could be odd man out.  Although I'm not a great Humphries fan, his expiring contract could be what keeps him on the team—at least until the trading deadline.

• At first I thought it was a mistake for the Celtics to face draft day without the inputs of the next coach.  However, I've reversed my thinking and have rationalized that it may be best for Danny to be the architect who determines (largely through the nature of his acquisitions) the stylistic directions in which the Celtics will head on offense and defense and then hires the coach who, from the remaining list of candidates, can best coach those systems.

• Right now, I sense early indications are that the Celtics are going to feature a tough rebounding game at both ends.  And, in my book, the addition of Josh Smith would be all that's required to add a potent transition game to the equation.

•With respect to Danny's first round draft pick, it could be a mistake to be too quick to criticize his choice.  It could be that he wanted a big man but was not confident that any of those who were available would ever be more than a career backup.  That being the case, maybe he selected the most NBA-ready career backup so Kelly Olynyk could help the team a.s.a.p.  Moreover, although Kelly's weakest area seems to be his defense, Danny may have seen something in him (his footwork?) that he feels could expedite his contributing to the Celtics' team defense.

• And just in case no one is sufficiently bewildered, the Celtics sent cash to Indiana for the Pacers' second round pick—center Colton Iverson.  He's 7' 0" 255 pounds and seems almost the opposite of Olynyk.  Iverson is not as athletic and not neaarly as offensively versatile, but he's a tough hustler, especially on the offensive boards.  I believe they'll both be with the Celtics' team in the Orlando Summer League. Iverson averaged 14.9 points and 9.8 rebounds at Colorado State.

• The Celtics have also invited Phil Pressey (Paul's son) to their Summer League team.  He's a 5' 11" point guard who came out early but wasn't drafted.  Apparently, he's a trick-or-treat guy whose moves can be almost celestial at one moment and completely irritating the next.

• I'll ask gyso whether, by trading Paul Pierce at his full $15 million salary, the Celtics will be creating a trade exception that can be used during the next 12 months to allow them to bring in more salary than they send out in a trade.  (Josh Smith?)

• I'll try to list the Celtics roster as it might look after July 10th (pending yet additional personnel actions by Danny).  (I threw Wilcox, Randolph, White and Williams in just in case the Celtics keep them on board.)  It certainly doesn't look close to a finished product with which to start a season.  But, when one views it from the perspective of a huge rebuilding initiative, it boggles the mind to realize how much groundwork Danny has laid toward that end.  Undaunted by Stern's rebuff of an initial try at saying a necessary good-bye to a beloved soldier, he went right out and made an even better deal, getting out from the contracts of two soldiers.  We'll miss them, but we know it had to be done; and Danny has apparently found a way to do it while getting some player assets and draft pick assets in return.  He has beaten the important June 30 deadline with a couple of days to spare.  After all the conjecture about whether he might draft a German midget, he boldly drafted two guys with legitimate center physiques, drafting for need rather than taking the traditional best players still on the board—and he even moved up to get one of them and traded for the other.

Center:
•Kelly Olynyk
•Colton Iverson
•Fab Melo (Three fingers and my mental stability were harmed in the typing of this name)  √√√√
•Shavlik Randolph * √ (filler to make a trade work)
•Chris Wilcox? * √ (filler to make a trade work)

Power Forward:
• Jared Sullinger
• Brandon Bass √
• Kris Humphries
• Reggie Evans
• Jeff Green *
• DJ White? √ (filler to make a trade work
•Shavlik Randolph * √ (filler to make a trade work)
•Chris Wilcox * √ *filler to make a trade work)

Small Forward
•Jeff Green *
•Gerald Williams √
•Tornique Shengalia * √ (filler to make a trade work)

Shooting Guard:
•Avery Bradley √
•Courtney Lee √
•Jordan Crawford √

Point Guard:
•Rajon Rondo
•Terrence Williams √ (filler to make a trade work)
•Phil Pressey

* Denotes multiple positions
V = My choices for prime trade bait

• Congratulations, Danny, on having done the demolition job with as much grace, dignity and respect as was possible under the circumstances.  Now the rough work is done; the house is tight to the weather; and you can focus on interior design and finished work as you craft a future home which may be inhabited by old and new generations with a sense of hope and pride.

Go Celtics!

Sam

Thanks Sam for the analysis. According to Mark Murphy at the Boston Herald:

"When the NBA’s contract moratorium ends on July 10, Ainge will announce that he has traded the soul of the franchise — Pierce and Garnett — in addition to Jason Terry to Brooklyn for first-round draft picks in 2014, 2016 and 2018, in addition to Gerald Wallace, former Celtic Kris Joseph, Tornike Shengelia, Reggie Evans, Keith Bogans and the expiring contract of Kris Humphries."

So I'd like to know where you see Kris Joseph fitting in to this, as filler-trade-bait or as a serious consideration for a roster spot? And Keith Bogens? Who he?

I think some of those net players could be moved along with a future draft pick or 2.

We still need a low post scorer and rebounder at the 5. Neither of the picks provide that need.

There are more shoes to drop.

Dboss

Hi,
I hope they can convert extra PFs into a very good shooter at 2 - neither Lee nor Bradlley are it. Or a decent center e.g. Kaman, Gortat.
As Sam noted, it's way too early... So, let's wait and see what's going to shape.
Also, the next item on DA's to-do list is head coach.

AK

Tough to see those 2 go, but this is what we did not do with Bird's team. It is going to be interesting to watch any future moves DA may make, and to see these pieces come together.


Pete

Hi,
Also, according to the correction to the upcoming trade, Celtics're getting Brooks. This, I guess, solves the issue with backup PG.

AK

The big 3 and the banner in 2008 was only possible through Danny Ainge stockpiling assets and then moving them in deals that added up to KG and Ray Allen.

This trade takes a team that was going nowhere, and begins the rebuild. Sad to see PP and KG go, but not as sad as waiting 20 years for banner 18.

Well, there has to be a bunch of mixed feeling on this board today.  The ones who thought that we didn't need a full-blown rebuild, that all we needed was an extra piece or two and for Rondo and Sully to come back strong, have got to be stunned.  Those that were calling for a full-blown demolition have got to be happier, but maybe not the way it's being blown up.  Be careful what you ask for, you might get it.

Let's start with what we know:
1.  We have 9 players under contract, 6 coming in from Brooklyn.  That's 15 plus Olynyk makes 16.  The Nets have a team option on Kris Joseph, so maybe he'll be a casualty of numbers, again.  That would take us back down to 15.

2.  Our centers are all rookies (I consider Melo to still be a rookie, since he didn't play with the team last year) and possibly Wilcox.  If we add Wilcox, for experience, then we're over the roster limit of 15 again.

3.  As Sam has pointed out, we're thicker than thieves at PF.

What is my conclusion?  Trader Danny isn't done yet.  We've got too many players.

My friends, we're watching sausage being made and that's never pretty.  We need to accept the fact that the team we are looking at right now is not the team we'll be seeing in November.  Maybe Wallace will be amnestied.  Maybe, but my gut says most likely yes, Danny has another trade that he's maneuvering for.  I don't know what is going to happen any more than any of you but I do know one thing; we have too many players.

As far as Kelly Olynyk goes, I recommend that you watch the draftexpress scouting video I posted on the Draft Day thread.  Defensively, he's got work to do but offensively he can contribute immediately.  He has a nice touch around the basket, with a Griffin-like spin move, has a back-to-the-basket game (including a hook) and can hit the jumper.  He shot well from 3 at Gonzaga.  Granted, that's a college 3 and not an NBA one, but that's what KG shoots from 20' too.  He has soft hands and can put the ball on the floor well for a big man.  He runs the floor very well.  In short, he is more advanced offensively than defensively, needs to hit the weights and put on 15-20 pounds of muscle and, last but not least, he' 7'0".  He doesn't solve the problem at center, but he solves a problem at center.  He's going to score.  Even if he ends up being a PF and not a center, I have no problem with a 7'0" forward who can shoot from outside, inside and off the dribble.  Last year at this time every single one of us was ready to storm the Celtic front office with torches and pitchforks because Danny took a fat, unathletic, earthbound 6'9" PF with a bad back with #21 when we all knew we needed a center.  Now, we're all hoping, praying and drooling that fat, unathletic, earthbound 6'9" PF will come back from his back surgery and play like we saw him do last year.  Finally, on the issue of Olynyk, let me say that at no time did I ever see his name drop below Dieng or Plumlee's in any of the mock drafts and, as you may have noticed, I followed them regularly.  In other words, Kelly was always considered more valuable than them.  With Len, Zeller and Adams off the board, he was the best left.

And let's not forget we now have lots of 1st round picks. Those have value, both to us as well as to other teams who want to shed salary. We'll get 3 (2014,2016, 2018) from the Brooklyn deal. That will give us 2 firsts in next year's draft, a draft that people are saying is one of the best and deepest they've seen in a long time. Who could we pick up with those? Well, if we truly suck next year, it could be a real franchise player. If the sky doesn't fall, those picks can still be packaged. Sam got it right, these are all pieces in the big game. All we're missing is the Big Al piece and who knows what Danny's going to do next to get him?

As Yogi said "it ain't over 'til it's over".  We need some patience and let this play out for another few months.

bob


.

Bob, Don't forget that we have the Clip's #1 pick in 2015. So now Danny has these cards in his hand: two # 1 picks in 2014, 2015, and 2016.

Olynyk is not an NBA center. Colton Iverson is a longshot and is not ready to play NBA center. They still need a center, preferably two.

Berlin,

My guess would be that, if Joseph was added, it was just for salary equalization purposes.  We've been down that road, and it will shock me if he's on the roster next season.

Bogans is a 10-year, 33-year-old veteran who is listed at 6' 5" and plays both SF and SG.  His stats indicate that he's mediocre in everything—a 4+ PPG average in 18 MPG.  In short, he's the poster boy for journeymen.

Sam

As I posted on another thread, the Celtics now own 9 first round picks over the next 5 years.

Danny is NOT going to rebuild by bringing in 9 newbies.  I'll betcha half of them never have a cup o'chowda in Boston, except perhaps as a member of the visiting team.

Trader Danny blows my mind.  He makes The Godfather look like an old softie.

Just the type of guy we want holding the whip...


bob


.

sinus007 wrote:Hi,
Also, according to the correction to the upcoming trade, Celtics're getting Brooks. This, I guess, solves the issue with backup PG.

AK

Brooks is a SG not a PG.

tjmakz wrote:Brooks is a SG not a PG.

With the emphasis on the "S."

He put together a promising string of games his rookie season but gathered cobwebs on the bench when the Nets got Joe Johnson.

I'm okay with everything, my youngest son Johnny is not taking this well, hes pissed....tried to explain were rebuilding.

cowens/oldschool wrote:I'm okay with everything, my youngest son Johnny is not taking this well, hes pissed....tried to explain were rebuilding.

Cow,

Reminds me of when I was a young kid and my Orioles traded Frank Robinson. Didn't think something like that could happen, thought the team was a forever thing and I was crushed. Tough lessons in reality for young sports fans.

Regards

yep NYCelt I'm still pissed from when Red got rid of Silas.

bobheckler wrote:Well, there has to be a bunch of mixed feeling on this board today.  The ones who thought that we didn't need a full-blown rebuild, that all we needed was an extra piece or two and for Rondo and Sully to come back strong, have got to be stunned.  Those that were calling for a full-blown demolition have got to be happier, but maybe not the way it's being blown up.  Be careful what you ask for, you might get it.

Let's start with what we know:
1.  We have 9 players under contract, 6 coming in from Brooklyn.  That's 15 plus Olynyk makes 16.  The Nets have a team option on Kris Joseph, so maybe he'll be a casualty of numbers, again.  That would take us back down to 15.

2.  Our centers are all rookies (I consider Melo to still be a rookie, since he didn't play with the team last year) and possibly Wilcox.  If we add Wilcox, for experience, then we're over the roster limit of 15 again.

3.  As Sam has pointed out, we're thicker than thieves at PF.

What is my conclusion?  Trader Danny isn't done yet.  We've got too many players.

My friends, we're watching sausage being made and that's never pretty.  We need to accept the fact that the team we are looking at right now is not the team we'll be seeing in November.  Maybe Wallace will be amnestied.  Maybe, but my gut says most likely yes, Danny has another trade that he's maneuvering for.  I don't know what is going to happen any more than any of you but I do know one thing; we have too many players.

As far as Kelly Olynyk goes, I recommend that you watch the draftexpress scouting video I posted on the Draft Day thread.  Defensively, he's got work to do but offensively he can contribute immediately.  He has a nice touch around the basket, with a Griffin-like spin move, has a back-to-the-basket game (including a hook) and can hit the jumper.  He shot well from 3 at Gonzaga.  Granted, that's a college 3 and not an NBA one, but that's what KG shoots from 20' too.  He has soft hands and can put the ball on the floor well for a big man.  He runs the floor very well.  In short, he is more advanced offensively than defensively, needs to hit the weights and put on 15-20 pounds of muscle and, last but not least, he' 7'0".  He doesn't solve the problem at center, but he solves a problem at center.  He's going to score.  Even if he ends up being a PF and not a center, I have no problem with a 7'0" forward who can shoot from outside, inside and off the dribble.  Last year at this time every single one of us was ready to storm the Celtic front office with torches and pitchforks because Danny took a fat, unathletic, earthbound 6'9" PF with a bad back with #21 when we all knew we needed a center.  Now, we're all hoping, praying and drooling that fat, unathletic, earthbound 6'9" PF will come back from his back surgery and play like we saw him do last year.  Finally, on the issue of Olynyk, let me say that at no time did I ever see his name drop below Dieng or Plumlee's in any of the mock drafts and, as you may have noticed, I followed them regularly.  In other words, Kelly was always considered more valuable than them.  With Len, Zeller and Adams off the board, he was the best left.

And let's not forget we now have lots of 1st round picks.  Those have value, both to us as well as to other teams who want to shed salary.  We'll get 3 (2014,2016, 2018) from the Brooklyn deal.  That will give us 2 firsts in next year's draft, a draft that people are saying is one of the best and deepest they've seen in a long time.  Who could we pick up with those?  Well, if we truly suck next year, it could be a real franchise player.  If the sky doesn't fall, those picks can still be packaged.  Sam got it right, these are all pieces in the big game.  All we're missing is the Big Al piece and who knows what Danny's going to do next to get him?

As Yogi said "it ain't over 'til it's over".  We need some patience and let this play out for another few months.

bob


.

Bob,

I was looking at this mock draft the day before and Dieng was listed at #16 (to us), Plumlee at 22 to the Nets and Olynyk to the Knicks. You said you never saw one that had him below those two guys:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba-mock-draft-version-4-081000117--nba.html

steve3344 wrote:

bobheckler wrote:Well, there has to be a bunch of mixed feeling on this board today.  The ones who thought that we didn't need a full-blown rebuild, that all we needed was an extra piece or two and for Rondo and Sully to come back strong, have got to be stunned.  Those that were calling for a full-blown demolition have got to be happier, but maybe not the way it's being blown up.  Be careful what you ask for, you might get it.

Let's start with what we know:
1.  We have 9 players under contract, 6 coming in from Brooklyn.  That's 15 plus Olynyk makes 16.  The Nets have a team option on Kris Joseph, so maybe he'll be a casualty of numbers, again.  That would take us back down to 15.

2.  Our centers are all rookies (I consider Melo to still be a rookie, since he didn't play with the team last year) and possibly Wilcox.  If we add Wilcox, for experience, then we're over the roster limit of 15 again.

3.  As Sam has pointed out, we're thicker than thieves at PF.

What is my conclusion?  Trader Danny isn't done yet.  We've got too many players.

My friends, we're watching sausage being made and that's never pretty.  We need to accept the fact that the team we are looking at right now is not the team we'll be seeing in November.  Maybe Wallace will be amnestied.  Maybe, but my gut says most likely yes, Danny has another trade that he's maneuvering for.  I don't know what is going to happen any more than any of you but I do know one thing; we have too many players.

As far as Kelly Olynyk goes, I recommend that you watch the draftexpress scouting video I posted on the Draft Day thread.  Defensively, he's got work to do but offensively he can contribute immediately.  He has a nice touch around the basket, with a Griffin-like spin move, has a back-to-the-basket game (including a hook) and can hit the jumper.  He shot well from 3 at Gonzaga.  Granted, that's a college 3 and not an NBA one, but that's what KG shoots from 20' too.  He has soft hands and can put the ball on the floor well for a big man.  He runs the floor very well.  In short, he is more advanced offensively than defensively, needs to hit the weights and put on 15-20 pounds of muscle and, last but not least, he' 7'0".  He doesn't solve the problem at center, but he solves a problem at center.  He's going to score.  Even if he ends up being a PF and not a center, I have no problem with a 7'0" forward who can shoot from outside, inside and off the dribble.  Last year at this time every single one of us was ready to storm the Celtic front office with torches and pitchforks because Danny took a fat, unathletic, earthbound 6'9" PF with a bad back with #21 when we all knew we needed a center.  Now, we're all hoping, praying and drooling that fat, unathletic, earthbound 6'9" PF will come back from his back surgery and play like we saw him do last year.  Finally, on the issue of Olynyk, let me say that at no time did I ever see his name drop below Dieng or Plumlee's in any of the mock drafts and, as you may have noticed, I followed them regularly.  In other words, Kelly was always considered more valuable than them.  With Len, Zeller and Adams off the board, he was the best left.

And let's not forget we now have lots of 1st round picks.  Those have value, both to us as well as to other teams who want to shed salary.  We'll get 3 (2014,2016, 2018) from the Brooklyn deal.  That will give us 2 firsts in next year's draft, a draft that people are saying is one of the best and deepest they've seen in a long time.  Who could we pick up with those?  Well, if we truly suck next year, it could be a real franchise player.  If the sky doesn't fall, those picks can still be packaged.  Sam got it right, these are all pieces in the big game.  All we're missing is the Big Al piece and who knows what Danny's going to do next to get him?

As Yogi said "it ain't over 'til it's over".  We need some patience and let this play out for another few months.

bob


.

Bob,

I was looking at this mock draft the day before and Dieng was listed at #16 (to us), Plumlee at 22 to the Nets and Olynyk to the Knicks.  You said you never saw one that had him below those two guys:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba-mock-draft-version-4-081000117--nba.html

steve,

I didn't see that one.

Steve Alexander of Rotoworld. Ok. Never heard of him, but he did do what you said.

bob

.

What the hell happened to Reggie Evans?  He represented at least 75% of my satisfaction with the trade.  Not only did the sheer production of this rebound machine (one rebound about every two minutes on the floor) whet my appetite, but i(along with the presence of Humphries) it also suggested an overall direction in which the Celtics might be heading—toward tough rebounding.  And that, in turn, bolstered the possibility of running a consistently successful transition game (which, along with the rebounding, would have been augmented by acquiring Josh Smith).  Now the incoming trade chips seem more like a random bunch of journeymen with no unifying theme.  It appears that the Celtics requested the change, so perhaps they were concerned about Evans' age (33+) compared with that of Brooks (24).  But I don't believe Brooks is the answer at backup PG.  I guess Brooks is a high-energy type who may not have had an opportunity to hone his skills with the Nets; and, at 6' 5", he would represent a relatively tall SG.  Moreover, based on the list I provided (above), the Celtics needed more help at SG than at PF.

Sam

Sam,

I am also quite surprised by the lack of Reggie Evans in the trade, considering that none of the other pieces really gave me much optimism.

K_J,

Weird, huh? It's a question I'd love to ask Danny. And I'm sure I'd get a straight answer. Riiiiiiiiiiiiight!

Sam

Reggie might have had injury issues that concerned Danny. Otherwise we're missing a contributor in him.

worcester wrote:Reggie might have had injury issues that concerned Danny. Otherwise we're missing a contributor in him.

The Nets exchanged Marshon Brooks for Reggie Evans.
That is big for the Nets to keep him to back up KG and Lopez.

Why would anyone be concerned about not getting a player who does not figure in the future? A player who possibly would make the Celtics a better team this coming year to the point that the team would have a better record resulting in the team dropping down in the in the draft. Brooks on the other hand is young and could possibly be a contributor in the future.

Swish