Five Things To Watch: Boston Celtics

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Five Things to Watch: Boston Celtics
3 Comments
By John Karalis
August 23, 2013 at 12:34 PM


Six years ago, the Boston Celtics opened what was supposed to be a three-year championship window after the acquisitions of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Along with Paul Pierce, the new “Big Three” won one title and could have won two more if they had remained healthy.

Like NASA getting extended use out of an aging Mars Rover, the Celtics trudged along as contenders for a few more years. The three-year window was open for a fourth year. Then a fifth. But the inevitable finally struck last season. The most difficult season since the Garnett trade ended with injuries and great disappointment.

When that last Jenga block holding up the tenuous Celtics infrastructure – Doc Rivers – was pulled from the stack and sent to the Los Angeles Clippers, the entire thing came crashing down. Garnett, the man most responsible for breathing new life into the team, is now a Brooklyn Net. He took with him Pierce, a man some would call the greatest pure scorer in team history, and this generation’s iconic Celtic. Jason Terry departed, too.

The Celtics as we knew them are in ruins.

Now, the architects of this team need to inspect the pillars left behind and determine whether they are strong enough to support a rebuilt team, or if they, too, need to be torn down so a new team can be built from the ground up. Here are five things to watch for as the team tries to figure that out.

1. What kind of coach will Brad Stevens be? His college credentials from Butler are impeccable. The things he has said since joining the Celtics have been perfect. His actions over the summer seem to be coming straight from some kind of “this is how you earn immediate respect as a new NBA coach” handbook. But Stevens hasn’t run a single practice. He hasn’t had to draw an out-of-bounds play in a tight game. He hasn’t been tested by a strong-willed veteran who may or may not be vying for the title of best point guard in the NBA. While Stevens has made all the right moves so far (including a very nice letter to former players inviting them to be around the team), we’ve yet to see how all of his college success translates to the NBA. Stevens seems to be a very smart and observant individual, and he has assembled a fantastic and diverse staff of assistants. He and the Celtics are doing all they seemingly can to make this transition a smooth one. As for Rajon Rondo, there has been this notion that he and Stevens are destined to butt heads because that’s somehow the sort of thing Rondo does. But he and Stevens have a common goal. It behooves both to do what they can to achieve it. The Stevens-Rondo relationship seems to be one of a gearhead to an engine he’s never seen before. Rondo works in mysterious ways, and getting under that hood to understand what makes him run is Stevens’ first step to success as an NBA coach. If they can start off on the right foot, then the rest will be a little easier. Still, dealing with men who make exorbitant amounts of money is different than dealing with kids at Butler constantly branded as underdogs. Basketball is basketball, and Stevens will adjust to the speed and ability of the players as well as the structure of the game, timeouts and variations in the rules. But his adjustment to the NBA culture will be the biggest factor in whether he is successful.

2. What kind of player will Rajon Rondo be, not only coming off an ACL injury, but without any of the Big Three? Three things have never happened in Rondo’s NBA career. He has never had to come back from a major knee injury, been coached by someone other than Doc Rivers and led a team without Pierce or Garnett. This year, he’s doing all of that. An easy knock on Rondo over the course of his career has been that he’s a product of Pierce, Garnett, and Allen. They, the critics would say, make it easy to rack up assists because they are all Hall of Famers who make more shots than most people. That’s fair in some ways, but it’s also fair to say that they continued to get opportunities to make those shots, even at their advanced ages, because of Rondo’s ability to find them in their sweet spots. So this season is going to be a bit of an answer to that debate. It stands to reason that when the players around a player aren’t as good, that player won’t get as many assists because some guys just won’t finish as well. But can Rondo make this lesser talent better? Can he make Kelly Olynyk a Rookie of the Year candidate by constantly putting him in a position to score? Can he get Jeff Green into spots that allow him to make easy baskets? And can he do it after suffering a torn ACL? Granted, this wasn’t the catastrophic type of injury suffered by Derrick Rose (Rondo only suffered a partial tear of the ACL and had no other structural damage, while Rose tore multiple ligaments), but that doesn’t make the rehab any less intense. The real question here is whether Rondo allows the ACL to fully heal, or if he finagles a comeback earlier than usual in an attempt to prove to the world that he can come back from a devastating injury faster than most humans. The latter seems like something Rondo would try to do. Rondo is the linchpin to the Celtics’ success this season. If he can come out healthy and on the same page with Stevens, he has the opportunity to lead this rag-tag bunch of Celtics further than most people would predict. One thing to consider with Rondo: There’s a good chance this is the season that determines whether he is a Celtic for the long haul, or some other team’s point guard going into the 2014 playoffs. Rondo has one more year left on his deal after Jeff Greenthis season. A major success this season could earn him a big-time extension in Boston. A bust, though, could spell the end.

3. Can Jeff Green be a team’s primary scorer? Green found some success in Boston in his first season back from heart surgery. The encouraging thing is that he got better as the season wore on. His scoring average nearly doubled from February (9.3 ppg) to March (17.6 ppg). And his numbers as a starter (20.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.9 apg) were vastly superior to his numbers as a sub (10.9/3.4/1.2). But he still had Pierce around to help out (like in this sequence, which may be the best of this past season), which means the big question going into this season for Green is “Can this guy put up some of those same big numbers when the defense is geared to stop him?”

For all of Green’s success last season, his PER still settled at 15. That’s a career best – and still average. While he was the Celtics’ best player during long stretches against the Knicks in the playoffs (especially defensively), he also had stretches where he disappeared. Doctors have said it would take a full season for Green to fully recover from heart surgery. He has that now, as well as a full (or mostly full) season alongside Rondo to be the Celtics’ top scoring option. Can he rise to the occasion?

4. Which players have any value, and what kind of moves will the Celtics make to capitalize on them? The very minor move of Fab Melo to Memphis for Donte Greene is actually a big deal financially for the Celtics. If they waive Greene and his non-guaranteed contract, they will get themselves about $500,000 under the tax line, a place the Celtics need to be this year. That should tell you a lot about Danny Ainge’s mentality this season. The Celtics are not going to spend money on any free agents, and any moves they make will be to (a) shed more salary and (b) acquire assets such as young players or future draft picks. The Celtics already have already acquired four first-round picks this summer (2014, 2016, 2018 from Brooklyn and 2015 from the Los Angeles Clippers as compensation for Rivers). They also have the right two swap places with Brooklyn in 2017. But they want more. The Celtics have a bit of a weird roster right now with too many guys that play very similar positions. So this season will undoubtedly be a type of months-long audition for many of these players who will be available to other teams. The big contracts the Celtics would love to move are the two newly acquired forwards from Brooklyn, Kris Humphries and Gerald Wallace. Wallace will be the trickier one because he has two more seasons after this one at $10 million each, so the Celtics will have to find a way to make him especially effective this season so other teams can see the value in giving up something for him. Humphries’ $12 million deal is expiring, so even if he walks, the Celtics will save money going into next summer. But the team would love to find a way to attach one of their shooting guards to his expiring contract in a deal. There isn’t enough room on this team for Courtney Lee, Jordan Crawford, MarShon Brooks and Avery Bradley. Considering Bradley is a restricted free agent next summer, the Celtics would probably like to have a little breathing room to sign him. This all means that the team will be gauging interest on the rest of these guys (and probably forward Brandon Bass, too) throughout the season. If Ainge and the Celtics can get a few of them to prove to other GMs that they can help during a playoff run, then he can stockpile more of those draft picks that are of supreme value under this new CBA. But if Ainge can’t, then the Celtics might be saddled with some dead weight as they try to pull off a quick rebuild.

5. Are the youngsters pieces of a core around which the Celtics can build? Aside from Rondo, for obvious reasons, Bradley, 2012 first-round pick Jared Sullinger and 2013 first-round pick Kelly Olynyk are the three most valuable players on the roster. They are young, good, and cheap. But how good can they be? Bradley has shown some very good and very bad things in his short time in Boston. He has been a top-notch defender who – when playing off the ball – can find holes in the defense and burn teams offensively with backdoor cuts or corner Kelly Olynykthrees. But when Rondo went down, Bradley showed that he really isn’t capable of being a point guard. He is unsure when dribbling and running the offense, which drags down his passing and shooting to a point where he becomes an offensive liability. Sullinger, meanwhile, started earning his stripes as a down-and-dirty rebounder who contributed to the offense without having to plays run specifically for him. He is also a very smart defender who makes up for a lack of size and jumping ability by anticipating the opponent’s moves very well and getting into position to take charges. But Sullinger had back surgery to correct a disc issue midway through last season. He has been cleared to return to basketball activities, and doctors say this should correct the problem. But back issues are always tricky, and it’s always better to see for yourself whether a player is back to normal. Furthermore, Sullinger doesn’t have Garnett or Pierce around to attract attention – this is a running theme throughout the season until the effect of their departure is fully realized – so he will attract some more defensive attention. He might not be able to float into cracks in the defense for some of the offensive rebounds he was getting last season. Olynyk impressed the hell out of some scouts in Orlando this summer. The 7-footer from Gonzaga showed he can hit from long range, put the ball on the floor and work in the post. It drew pie-in-the-sky comparisons to Dirk Nowitzki, which has Celtics fans salivating at the thought of a potential mid-first-round steal. But Olynyk has yet to play in an NBA game or go through an official NBA practice. It’s one thing to do some of the things he did against a bunch of guys who may not make it in the league. It’s quite another to do it against the game’s elite players. There is no doubt he is in for a rude awakening at some point. So the Celtics will see this season if these three guys are truly the quality of player that can be key cogs in a future championship team, or simply guys that will settle into nice roles off the bench and are ultimately expendable. Each has the potential to be either of those things. It’s a transition season for the Celtics, and they have a lot of questions that need to be answered before they can truly take the next step in their rebuilding process. On paper, the team seems to have some nice pieces that if pulled together properly can be fairly competitive for a team in this position. But fate doesn’t always allow for the best-case scenario. In this tightrope walk across the chasm that is the NBA’s salary cap and luxury tax, the Celtics have to avoid missteps that could send them plunging into the abyss of mediocrity.



bob


.

Bobh,
Thanks for the article.
Quite a few interesting thoughts. Nothing new, though.
Also, I was wondering if the author benefits somehow from the number of characters/words of the article. Everything he wrote could be expressed by the following:
Celtics are in full rebuilding mode the initial success of which is based on the following 5 items:
1. Brad Stevens - his transition into NBA and his relations with Rondo.
2. Rajon Rondo - his rehab, his grasp of role of a team leader, his relations with Brad Stevens.
3. Jeff Green - his success as primary scorer.
4. BKN newcomers and draft picks - how DA will deal with them, who's going to fit better.
5. Bradley, Sullinger and Olynyk - how they adjust to the new environment and how they're going to perform.
-----------------
Did I miss anything?

BTW, I wouldn't call the current state of the Celtics "ruins". This word implies destruction but DA, IMHO, rather disassembled the team and, currently it happens to be a frame with a lot of already acquired and would be acquired spare parts.

AK

The author is asking questions we've been pondering for months  

1) I'm of the mindset that Stevens will find a way to connect with and motivate his players. He is an intelligent person with a solid coaching reputation. There will be some NBA growing pains, but if everyone is patient enough to wait those out, he can thrive.

2) Rondo has been vital to this team since the championship season. PP KG RA are all hall of fame players, but Rondo's ability to run the offense facilitated the jobs of the aforementioned. With a younger team at his disposal, Rondo may be able to quicken the pace, as opposed to those ISO-plays. Rondo will have to make adjustments depending on how his knee feels. But I don't expect him to be tentative like Derrick Rose.

3) JG is the best pure scorer on this team. He's fully capable of getting into the 20s and 30s, or even 40s. Since he isn't splitting time with PP, his points will certainly go up.

4) Value in terms of what? Trading or keeping? Sully, Olynyk, and Bradley are certainly great pieces to keep as they are talented and aren't burdening the cap. Humphries, Bass, and CLee are good pieces to trade. I'm still not sure about Gerald Wallace's place in all this, though.

5) Of course you can build around them, if Danny chooses to. They aren't bums.

KJ