ProBasketball Talk: Preview of the Celtics

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/09/17/probasketballtalk-2013-14-preview-the-boston-celtics/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs


ProBasketballTalk 2013-14 Preview: The Boston Celtics
Kurt Helin Sep 17, 2013, 8:43 AM EDT



Last season: For the first half of the season Boston — with veterans like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce — looked like that team everyone wants to avoid in the first round. Remember, the year before they had taken Miami seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals. Maybe this version of the Celtics wasn’t going to be a title team, but they were going to be a tough out.

Then in late January Rajon Rondo blew out his knee and all bets were off. That injury was the first domino in a rebuild that landed full force this summer. Boston went on to win 41 games but was bounced in the first round of the playoffs by the Knicks.




Signature highlight from last season: Jeff Green makes a poster with Al Jefferson in it.



Key player changes: Welcome to rebuilding Celtics fans. It’s painful and kind of sucks. As has been said the Rondo injury was the first domino, the next was Doc Rivers heading to the Los Angeles Clippers — he was replaced in a surprise move by Butler College’s Brad Stevens, a guy very well respected in coaching circles but a guy making a jump from a mid-major college to one of the most prestigious jobs in the NBA. Danny Ainge rolled the dice on that one.

Then came the big trade that officially meant end of the big three era (which really ended when Ray Allen left anyway)—Pierce, Garnett and Jason Terry to the Nets in exchange for Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, Keith Bogans, MarShon Brooks, Kris Joseph, and three future first round draft picks. (Those picks are key in a rebuild.) That trade made it clear Boston was all in for the rebuild and the only question left was how far down that “get bad to get good” rabbit hole they wanted to go. Danny Ainge and everyone in Boston says they are not tanking, but should they?

Boston also brought in Kelly Olynyk and Colton Iverson through the draft. After one season, they let Fab Melo walk.

Keys to the Celtics’ season:

1. Can Rajon Rondo be a central building block? Can everyone tune out the trade rumors? Rondo could well miss the first part of the season due to his knee injury (no timeline is set), but his return date is not the biggest question about him or the team. Put simply, is Rondo the future in Boston or not?

Rondo is now the unquestioned leader on this team, but it’s time to prove he can really lead. On the court he has been fantastic when tasked with setting up veteran star players, but his jumper has been inconsistent and a lot more pressure to score will fall on him. Off the court he can be challenging and at times abrasive — you can lead being that way at times (KG and Kobe Bryant are as well), but you can’t be that way all the time. Rondo needs to show he is ready for the leadership role in Boston.

Then he and his teammates have  to tune out the trade rumors that will fly around this team. We should expect GM Danny Ainge to shop Kris Humphries like mad and if he can find a taker for Gerald Wallace he is gone as well. Really everyone on the roster is available… except Rondo. Maybe, well probably not Rondo. Ainge has listened to offers for Rondo for a couple of years now, and I suspect that will not change. But he also never pulled the trigger and has said he wants to see if Rondo can lead. He needs to be publicly firm about this now. If Ainge thinks the rebuilding of the Celtics is better done with the pieces they can get by moving Rondo (who has a lot of value around the league) then now is the time — get the best deal you can for him this season and move on. But I think what we will see long before that is Rondo getting his chance to lead Boston into whatever is next.

2. Jeff Green needs to be consistent. There was a game last season where Jeff Green went toe-to-toe with LeBron James and held his own by and large (Miami won but Green was impressive). That is the engaged Jeff Green. But there are so many other games (and halves of games) where he is Casper — he floats around, doesn’t make an impact and is generally passive. With all their roster changes the Celtics are putting a lot more responsibility on Green’s shoulders and he needs to show up and lead every night. Garnett said last year Green needs to be more of an a******* and KG was right. That needs to start this year. Green and Avery Bradley need to step up into the void on this team following the KG/Pierce trade.

3. You’re rebuilding, so throw the kids and see who can play. The Celtics have said they are not in the tank for Wiggins, and the truth is in the East they have the talent on the roster to potentially chase a bottom playoff seed — Rondo, Humphries, Wallace, Courtney Lee and Brandon Bass can all play. We know what they can do.

However, for the future of the franchise show me more Avery Bradley (who could have a big year), more Kelly Olynyk, more MarShon Brooks, more Jared Sullinger, more Phil Pressey. Those guys are only going to get bet better with experience on the court and this is the kind of season where you give it to them, even if that is frustrating at times.

Why you should watch the Celtics: Kelly Olynyk — the floppy haired rookie out of Gonzaga was a breath of fresh air at Summer League and one of the most fun players to watch. He showed he can rebound, scores well inside and just seems to be having fun out there. This coming season may not be a lot of fun in Boston depending on how things shake out, but Olynyk will be.

Prediction: 32-50. Honestly, that number is just a dart blindly thrown at the board — this team could be around .500 if they play their veterans and everything breaks right, or they could be the 13 seed and come apart at the seams. Teams in transition are hard to predict. If Rondo comes back healthy and can be a leader, if Avery Bradley’s offensive game takes a step forward, if Jared Sullinger is healthy, if Brad Stevens can coach at the NBA level, and most importantly if the Celtics can find a new identity then maybe they could get the eight seed. Probably not, but maybe at the bottom of the East where under .500 can get you in the dance. However, the more likely outcome is this is a pretty poor team that sees a lot of roster turnover in trades this season as the Celtics reboot and rebuild. So I’ll go with 32 wins.



bob


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UPDATED AS OF 9/30:

http://www.theprobasketballtalk.com/2013/09/2013-2014-season-preview-boston-celtics.html




The tide has finally turned over for the Boston Celtics.  It started slowly after holding onto title dreams, the Celtics fought some hard battles in the Conference Finals against the eventual NBA Champion.  This summer Danny Ainge departed with Doc Rivers, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, leaving the team in Rajon Rondo’s hands as they move toward the future.

Danny acquired tons of draft picks, a couple expiring contracts and one big contract (3yrs-$30mil for Gerald Wallace) in exchange for the 66% of the Big Three and Doc Rivers.  Looking to rebuild the roster through the draft and potential trades available, the expectations for the 2013-2014 Celtics are low.  Rajon Rondo will be late to start the season as he recovers from his ACL injury he suffered last January.





Additions: Kelly Olynyk, Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, Keith Bogans, MarShon Brooks, Vitor Faverani, Phil Pressey

Subtractions: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Jason Terry, Fab Melo, D.J. White

The Celtics made the NBA world flip on it’s head with the 6 year contract offer to Brad Stevens, then coach of the Butler Bulldogs.  His college resume speaks for itself, however, very few college coaches translate well in the NBA, especially for coaches who never played at the professional level.

The style of play that Stevens will incorporate with the Celtics still remains a mystery.  An advanced stat nerd, Stevens is known for spending as much time analyzing advance stats as he does watching film on opponents.  He reviews each play that teams run in the NBA finding reasoning behind the opponent’s decision to run that particular play.

"Win the next game. Win the next possession. That's our focus. It's boring. It's also the way championships are won" – Brad Stevens

Being a young coach can either hurt or help Stevens depending on the team.  The one thing for certain is that Stevens will have to show and give respect to his players before he earns it.  There is a lot of new to this team.  First time for Rondo playing without All Stars and first time coaching professionals for Stevens.  The Celtics have the option to surprise everyone if their talent can come together.  The biggest factors for the Celtics heading into the season are Jeff Green, Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo, when he returns.

Jeff Green




By now you should know the Jeff Green story.  Traded to Boston for Kendrick Perkins, afraid to step on anyone’s toes and has a poor showing to start his time in Boston because of it.  He ends up having season ending heart surgery.  Comes back to put up his best per 36 minute statistics of his career.  After Rajon Rondo went down, Green took over and had an impressive end to the season.  He put up 7 games in the last month of basketball of 20 or more points, including a 43-point game.  There is a lot of optimism for Jeff Green this year that he can continue his development and take that next step that many thought he was capable of coming out of Georgetown.




Avery Bradley





One player I have never seen so highly regarded and so lowly regarded all at the same time.  There seems to be two schools of thought with Avery, one that he is the best defensive player in the league and is going to be a remarkable NBA player. The other side thinks that he was a product of the Celtics style of defense and is a subpar offensive player to last in this league.  It’s kind of polar opposites but I tend to lean on the first side.  I think his defensive ability is superior, despite Matt Moore’s constant complaining that Bradley gets away with holds.  The young player (only 22 years old) is already in the top 5-10 percentile for defensive players in the league, a side of the ball that hasn’t been taught to many, according to Amar’e Stoudemire.  Avery without a doubt lacks the ability to create his own shot or even be a top three scorer on any team.  But when you get talent around him, he ends up being a great asset on the team who can only hope to improve and refine his offensive game for his prime.  It won’t be easy for him, especially trying to fill in for Rondo early on but Bradley will have plenty of chances to grow under the Celtics.




Rajon Rondo




Saving the best for last, the entire Celtics success, as least in the short term, relies on Rajon Rondo’s health and commitment to the system and his teammates.  I sit on the side that doesn’t think Rondo deserves the reputation he has.  The media doesn’t like him because he doesn’t like the media.  Many write stories about his character based on second hand stories or seeing his competitive nature on the court.  I always tell people to judge a person by what their peers say.  You’ll never hear a teammate (besides Ray Allen) bad mouth Rajon.  You never hear the stories about how he called Avery Bradley every single day when Bradley was assigned to the D-League.   I think first and foremost, Rajon wants to win.  Being older and matured now, I think he has learned how to get his teammates to buy into him and what he thinks is best.  In a way, Rajon has learned to become a coach and I expect him to coach his teammates to improve and grow as a unit.  Hopefully for the fans sake, Rajon Rondo can return to the line up sooner rather than later.






Most Exciting Player To Watch: Kelly Olynyk

Did you think we would do an entire season preview and not mention the rookie phenom who took the summer league by storm?  The ability to have a scoring big man is rare in the NBA.  Kelly will get plenty of time to harness his tools and become a productive NBA player.  He has all the physical tools and we have seen the kid play hard every day at every level.  I think expectations might have gone a little too high based on the franchise being the Celtics and his impressive summer league.  Rookies will always have a larger learning curve but being with a first time NBA head coach might help the transition become a little smoother.


Prediction: 35-40 wins.

I don’t have high expectations for this season like many.  If Rajon was going to play all 82 games, I could see them sneaking in the 7th or 8th seed of the Eastern Conference.  Danny has a dilemma, do you try to win games and hope your team overachieves, giving the young guys more playoff experience or do you sit Rondo out as long as you can to lose as many games for the infamous Tank for Wiggins sweepstakes? These are the questions Danny will have to face daily next season.  I am sure he will hear all about his options on sports radio and during press conferences.  I have a feeling Danny will be looking to buy some all-star talent to put next to Rajon Rondo in the near future.



bob
MY NOTE:  35 wins is the highest I've heard/seen yet.  That's a recognition that, while we don't have many superstars on this team (ok, we have one, Rondo, who may or may not come back 100% and one superstar in the making with Green), we do have a decent bunch of talent.  It's unbalanced at some positions, but we have talent and talent is translatable into good things, be they on the court or in trades. He also left out Shav and Chris Wilcox on subtractions. But he remembered DJ White, who barely got off the bench?


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