NBA Trade Market Shifting as Season Progresses

http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/12/10/5194210/nba-trade-market-shifting-as-season-progresses


NBA trade market shifting as season progresses
By Jeff Clark  @celticsblog on Dec 10 2013, 5:00a 35



Darren McCollester


The market is shifting quickly and the best GMs will make their best moves when those shifts open up opportunities.


Let us make one thing perfectly clear to begin with. Danny Ainge doesn't care about this winning streak. If he sees a deal that would net him good returns at the expense of the current team, he won't hesitate to pull the trigger. On the other hand, I don't think he'll make a deal just to "step back in the standings" and secure a better draft position. If there isn't value there, he's not listening.

He's working on a plain above the day to day and week to week peaks and valleys. His eyes are focused on the long term and he's going to largely leave the short term up to Brad Stevens (who seems more than up to the challenge).

Of course that doesn't mean that he's taken a blind eye to the team all year. Just the opposite. He's watching the team progress and the players develop. He's watching the rest of the league as well. In just over a month things have changed pretty substantially all around the NBA between the first game and the quarter mark.

Supposed title contenders are cratering (Nets). Supposed East power players are on life support (Knicks). Two teams are running away with the top seeds in the East and everyone else is either fighting to get their heads above .500 or fighting to stay below .500 or torn between the two.

Meanwhile in the West the playoff race is alive and well and filled with quality teams. If the season ended today, the 11-9 Phoenix Suns (who were supposed to be tanking but have played really well) would be on the outside of the playoffs looking in. But if they were in the Eastern Conference they'd be the 3 seed.

All of which should make for an interesting trade season. In fact, the eye opening trades have already started happening. The Wizards moved early picking up Marcin Gortat. Minnesota and Sacramento swapped forwards (Derrick Williams for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute). Now the Raptors have moved Rudy Gay to the Kings.

More trades are on the way as the Rockets are highly motivated to move Omer Asik. The Kincks have been rumored to have Iman Shumpert on the block all year. The Kings and the Raptors are apparently still open for business.

That's a lot of "sellers" on the market. But who are the "buyers?"

It was assumed before the season that some teams on the fringe of the playoffs would make a trade to push themselves over the top. The Cavs and Bucks were two mentioned in those conversations. The Bucks are in contention for the worst record and the Cavs are only still "in it" because the rest of the East is so so bad.

The Wizards are still focused on the playoffs, so they might want to upgrade again, except that they dealt away their 2014 pick (protected) already so they'd have only their uninspiring crop of youngsters and future picks to offer up as value.

The answer, it seems, is to go West. Everyone is in the playoff hunt out West it seems. The Rockets, Mavericks, and Nuggets all seem like teams that would be willing to wheel and deal to get a bump up the standings. Same with the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and T-Wolves who have each struggled more than expected so far.

Ainge likely has his eye on all these teams. We have veterans who could step in and help any of them but again, Danny won't just be giving them away. He'll want young talent and/or picks to continue to build with. If one of those young players can help us now, great. If not, they'll get some run anyway since development is the name of the game.

But a little winning streak won't give Danny any pause. It didn't matter in 2010 when he traded Kendrick Perkins the second he got healthy for what turned out to be good value (despite what I still consider to be poor timing on the morale of the team). He held onto Pierce and Garnett an extra year (or more) not out of loyalty so much as out of value. He didn't get the kind of offer the Nets gave up for them so they stayed until he got what he couldn't refuse.

So will Ainge jump into this trading game this year? I remain convinced that he will until proven otherwise - which won't happen until February 20th. The market is shifting quickly and the best GMs will make their best moves when those shifts open up opportunities.




bob
MY NOTE:  Anybody who thinks that this winning streak changes anything in Trader Danny's mind is looking at a completely different personality than the one I've observed for the past 10 years.  If this winning streak is making him smile it's because he knows the value of his chips just appreciated.


.

Bobh,
Thanks for the article.
On related issue. If DA is to take the same route as he did the first time around: collecting chips and trading them for KG and RA and making the Celtics a contender virtually overnight. What are his possible targets from now till the end of summer '14? Are there any players who could be KG+RA 2.0?
I don't see anyone.

AK

Bob

And how much of an appreciated value of the chips (the players) are a direct result of his move of getting Stevens to run the show? (half of Docs salary and a pick to boot)

Should those players move elsewhere would they flourish as well?

beat

What some people tend to overlook is that trading involves a lot more than player evaluation. The heart of every trade involves appraisal of risk. (Just mention the name "Greg Oden" to the Trailblazers.) But the possibility of a serious future injury to an acquired player represents a relative minority of the risk. In most trades, a greater risk involves weighing the potential losses in the present versus the potential gains for the future.

Perk for Green is a perfect example of Danny's juggling act between the present and the future. The trade was unpopular with many scribes, Celtics fans, and even Celtics players (notably Rondo). But those people who didn't like the deal (including the players) didn't have the vision that a good general manager must have. One of Danny's greatest instincts lies in weighing the present against the future, and most players and the vast majority of fans are geared primarily toward the present.

An even better example is found in just a single player—James Posey. Danny signed him because, after having predicted the Celtics would win the championship within five years of his arrival, and after having developed a raft of trade assets for the first four of those years, he (Danny) knew it was time to make a big strike for the present. The following season made Danny's promise come true and treated many of us to a great parade.

But, at the end of that season, Danny wouldn't overpay Posey to stay because he (Danny) didn't think the long-term benefits warranted the money. Again, many disagreed with Danny's decision. Anyone heard about James Posey lately (other than his coaching aspirations)?

Danny's value as de factor general manager of the Celtics includes not only good player evaluation skills (see Crawford, Jordan) but also very discerning judgment and vision. The Celtics are very fortunate to have him as the architect of the next Celtics era.

Go Danny! Go Celtics!

Sam

Sam

Regardless of all the things Ainge has done.....

everytime I see a photo of him all I can think of is the headline


TREE BITES MAN

beat

Beat,

Headline? When I see a photo of Danny, all I can do is envy his hairline.

Sam

Danny sure doesn't mind playing the slots, I'll give him that.

I think he needs to draft more consistently, though. He missed a few gems in recent years.



KJ