Lottery Ticket: Celtics Winless Out West

by **bobheckler** Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:40 pm

I guess this is for Cowens, our resident Tank Commander. Oh shit. I used the "T-word"!

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4711163/lottery-ticket-cs-winless-out-west

Lottery ticket: C's winless out west
February, 25, 2014
FEB 25 3:33 AM ET
By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com

When the Boston Celtics opened the month of February by winning four of their first five games, feasting on the league's cellar dwellers, there were some Boston fans that squirmed watching the team climb in the standings. The team's post-All-Star break trip out west helped put those observers at ease.

Boston wrapped up a winless four-game trek out west on Monday with a 110-98 loss to the Utah Jazz. The Celtics are now 0-13 on the road against the Western Conference, which is a big reason why they now own the fourth-worst record in the NBA.

According to Hollinger Playoff Odds formula, Boston currently owns a mere 1.4 percent chance at a playoff berth. While Boston players have clung to the hope that a playoff charge remains possible, the Celtics find themselves 8 ½ games out of the last postseason spot in the East with three teams in front of them in that quest.

ESPN.com NBA Standings
The logjam at the bottom of the league standings.

The challenge for first-year coach Brad Stevens is keeping his players engaged on a nightly basis even when that playoff carrot is not there for motivation. The Celtics return home this week, but the schedule does not ease up and Boston players must soon embrace the idea of getting better each night, even if the losses continue to mount.

Of Boston's next 16 games through the end of March, 13 are against currently playoff-bound opponents. The other three include a Detroit team trying to fight its way into a playoff spot in the East, a trip to New Orleans (remember Boston hasn't won on the road against the West), and a visit from the Knicks.

The question over Boston's final 24 games becomes, where will the team finish among the lottery-bound teams? There's a cluster of five squads -- Celtics, Lakers, Jazz, Knicks, and Kings -- all within 2 ½ games of each other. Boston was ahead of two of those teams (Lakers, Kings) coming out of the All-Star break, but head-to-head losses saw the Celtics drop a couple spots on the ladder.

It seems unlikely that anyone is catching Milwaukee or Philadelphia. The Bucks (11-45) own a 3 ½ game cushion over the 76ers (15-42), even after Milwaukee posted a 130-110 win over Philadelphia, which has now lost 11 straight after stripping its roster at the trade deadline. It's almost certainly a two-team race for the most ping-pong balls.

But Boston is now within two games of Orlando, the team with the third-worst record in basketball. Two of the Magic's next four games come against the 76ers, which could force the Magic to climb up a bit. Of Orlando's 24 remaining games, only 15 are against current playoff teams.

What's the difference between the third- and fourth-worst record in the league? About a 4 percent chance of landing the top pick and a little less than 10 percent chance of landing a top 3 spot. In a draft that many believe is loaded up top, there's a great motivation to land in the the top 3.

The Celtics do not fear winning, as that little burst of victories at the start of the month confirmed. Stevens and the front office see a great value in young players learning how to win together, believing it can help in future seasons.

But, if we're being honest, losing isn't the worst thing for a transitioning team either. The Celtics want to get healthy, they want to play more consistent basketball (particularly on the defensive end). But, fair or not, the focus over the final two months of the season will also be the jockeying at the bottom of the league standings.

bob

.

by **Sam** Tue Feb 25, 2014 4:55 pm

Bob,

Use of the "T" word is thoroughly condoned on the forum. Any suggestion, even in humor, that this is not the case, is incorrect.

Thank you,

Sam

by **Sam** Tue Feb 25, 2014 5:22 pm

Last night's game looked as though the Celtics were shell-shocked, as though they were suddenly realizing that they're just not good enough to live up to their playoff hopes. Yes, they certainly missed Sully and Avery, but their demeanor and body language suggested that there's more to their malaise than just those absences.

It seems to me that, if there's any merit to these thoughts, we're entering a timespan that could have far-reaching ramifications. I'm talking about the effect of almost incessant adversity on the team's internal relationships, most especially including relationships with the coach.

One of the best reasons to hire Brad was because of the great success he had experienced at Butler. But do we know a lot (or anything) about his aptitude and/or fortitude in dealing with possible implications of repeated failure?

In years immediately past, Doc certainly had plenty of experience in bring teams through tough times. And, if that wasn't sufficient, he had two or three player-lieutenants who were very effective in keeping teammates on a reasonably constructive path.

The Celtics of today also have a number of veterans on the roster. But those veterans don't have long-established relationships with the Celtics; and it's entirely possible that their impressions of being a Celtic are still in the process of being formed...and that doesn't bode particularly well. Neither does the fact that some of them know they'll probably be short-timers with the team; and one of the long-timers has been told to stay home, while the other can be somewhat of a loose cannon. And to cap it off, the acknowledged leader of the team possesses possibly the most distressing possible mix of traits in such a circumstance: volatility, moodiness and independence.

Suffice it to say that this team has every reason to be in a state of rather uncomfortable flux. I find myself wondering (I hope without justification) whether cliques are forming among the players and how Brad's credibility is faring among the team.

This is one reason why I hope they can somehow come together and play over their heads for the remainder of the season. Because, whatever remnants of this team remain next fall, it would be nice for them to be able to build upon some degree of momentum and positive coach-player relationships.

And this would also be a great time for Rondo to step up and rally the troops—both improving the morale on the team and setting a positive tone for any continued role in the Celtics' future.

I recognize that the odds may be stacked against these carryover effects. But that's where hope comes into play, and I personally hope for the best.

Go Celtics!

Sam

by **dboss** Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:29 am

sam wrote:Last night's game looked as though the Celtics were shell-shocked, as though they were suddenly realizing that they're just not good enough to live up to their playoff hopes. Yes, they certainly missed Sully and Avery, but their demeanor and body language suggested that there's more to their malaise than just those absences.

It seems to me that, if there's any merit to these thoughts, we're entering a timespan that could have far-reaching ramifications. I'm talking about the effect of almost incessant adversity on the team's internal relationships, most especially including relationships with the coach.

One of the best reasons to hire Brad was because of the great success he had experienced at Butler. But do we know a lot (or anything) about his aptitude and/or fortitude in dealing with possible implications of repeated failure?

In years immediately past, Doc certainly had plenty of experience in bring teams through tough times. And, if that wasn't sufficient, he had two or three player-lieutenants who were very effective in keeping teammates on a reasonably constructive path.

The Celtics of today also have a number of veterans on the roster. But those veterans don't have long-established relationships with the Celtics; and it's entirely possible that their impressions of being a Celtic are still in the process of being formed...and that doesn't bode particularly well. Neither does the fact that some of them know they'll probably be short-timers with the team; and one of the long-timers has been told to stay home, while the other can be somewhat of a loose cannon. And to cap it off, the acknowledged leader of the team possesses possibly the most distressing possible mix of traits in such a circumstance: volatility, moodiness and independence.

Suffice it to say that this team has every reason to be in a state of rather uncomfortable flux. I find myself wondering (I hope without justification) whether cliques are forming among the players and how Brad's credibility is faring among the team.

This is one reason why I hope they can somehow come together and play over their heads for the remainder of the season. Because, whatever remnants of this team remain next fall, it would be nice for them to be able to build upon some degree of momentum and positive coach-player relationships.

And this would also be a great time for Rondo to step up and rally the troops—both improving the morale on the team and setting a positive tone for any continued role in the Celtics' future.

I recognize that the odds may be stacked against these carryover effects. But that's where hope comes into play, and I personally hope for the best.

Go Celtics!

Sam

Sam no excuses for teams that have injured players however the Celtics as you have noted are not a team with a lot of experience playing together.

So when you best on the ball defender and perimeter scorer (Bradley) and your best low post rebounder and scorer(Sullinger) are absent that has a considerable impact on how the team plays.

I do not think that what you said about Rondo ("volatility, moodiness and independence") has negatively impacted the team at all. He spent his time rehabbing his knee, working on his jumper and still managed to travel with the team practically every game. And since his return he has been the one pumping the team up and saying that they can still make the playoffs. Guys are starting to sconsistently get shots so I see that as a glimmer.

It seems that the motion offense is no longer how this team is going play. Two reasons: Rondo transcends the motion offense. Cousy did too and so did magic and other great point guards that just knew how to distribute the basketball with a high level of proficiency. the other reason is that the motion offense requires shooters and DA traded them (Lee and Crawford ) for cap space.

Brad is smart enough to know that you put the ball in Rondo's hands and you will be fine. At some point Doc came to that conclusion too.

As you noted a lot of the players are short timers and they know it.

it is relevant to understand that many of these variables were stimulated by Danny Ainge. It is part of his big picture.

He choose a damn good coach who I think is respected by the team. Especially after he got a technical foul. He needs to toughen up. They say a team reflects the personality of the coach. Well Brad Stevens coaches soft and his team is too nice.. So now Rondo comes back. He's the captain. He's the one with the championship and the one who has a wealth of experience playing with and against the best. In this light this team is Rondo's team. And I think that he has the most influence on how they play. He is fearless. And I think the partnership between him and brad will be strong.

As we watch the transition taking place there is a tremendous level of excitement building because the future looks very promising.

dboss

by **Sam** Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:07 am

Right you are, dboss. I feel a little differently about Cousy transcending the motion offense (although I may not be under standing exactly what you mean by that). Cousy thrived in the motion offense, and one reason that offense was ideal was that it enabled players who were not great shooters (like Russell, K.C., Satch, Conley, and even Loscutoff) to get a lot of close-in shooting opportunities.

What I said about Rondo was not intended to apply to the present. I was talking about the fact that the future of the Celtics seems to be, in large part, in his hands; and his is not what I would call the prototype of guaranteed leadership stability—if for no other reason that his future with the Celtics is not assured. When I refer to "stability," I think back to what happened to his mood when Perk was traded. Perhaps he has changed dramatically since that time. We'll see. I look forward to his energized leadership in upcoming games, which will help to erase the memory of what I thought was a somewhat uninspired performance in Utah despite his stat line. The returns of Bradley and Sully certainly should help Rondo's game and that of the team.

Sam

by **k_j_88** Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:22 am

I stated a few months before (I believe November or December) that the impact of accumulated loss would cause a detrimental effect to the team's morale. And ultimately, the play is severely affected as well.

The team is in abject disarray right now to the point where they can't even beat the bad teams. As grueling and agonizing as this season is, things are all about the future and very little if anything to do with right now.

This is the point where guys will begin playing more for themselves than the team. They have bottom lines to consider for their own careers and the intentions of "building a winning culture" will take a backseat for the time being.

KJ

by **Sam** Wed Feb 26, 2014 2:58 pm

KJ,

Ironically, playing more for the team is how they will present the best cases for themselves. I believe the Celtics won't be simply looking for stats on next year's roster. They'll be looking for contributing, complementary, and interchangeable parts moving forward.

by Sponsored content

Lottery Ticket: Celtics Winless Out West

Lottery Ticket: Celtics Winless Out West

Re: Lottery Ticket: Celtics Winless Out West

Re: Lottery Ticket: Celtics Winless Out West

Re: Lottery Ticket: Celtics Winless Out West

Re: Lottery Ticket: Celtics Winless Out West

Re: Lottery Ticket: Celtics Winless Out West

Re: Lottery Ticket: Celtics Winless Out West

Re: Lottery Ticket: Celtics Winless Out West