Sullinger and Olynyk Co-Existing Well

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2014/03/jared_sullinger_kelly_olynyk_c.html



Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk coexisting well even as Boston Celtics slide, posting some impressive statistics as a duo
Phoenix Suns guard Eric Bledsoe looks to pass the ball off between Boston Celtics' Kelly Olynyk (41) and Jared Sullinger during the second half of the Suns' 87-80 win in an NBA basketball game in Boston Friday, March 14, 2014. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

Print Jay King | mjking@masslive.com By Jay King | mjking@masslive.com  
on March 18, 2014 at 3:15 AM


It’s time to discuss the Jared Sullinger-Kelly Olynyk duo.

Actually, it might be well past time. Sullinger has operated as a carrier of hope throughout most of the season, while Olynyk (a.k.a. The Rapidly Improving Olynyk) has inspired optimism since sometime around the All-Star break. Together, they form a highly-skilled frontcourt duo more likely to make highlights with bounce passes than dunks. But can they fit alongside each other? They’re not athletic enough, right?

After more than three-quarters of a season, their success together might surprise you.

Before pointing to some impressive stats, let me state a few issues:

1. Neither of the two youngsters projects to become an elite rim protector. That's pretty obvious. Sullinger has provided solid defense for most of the season and Olynyk is certainly improving, but I doubt either has enough athleticism or length to ever become a major detriment to opponents in the paint. We’ve seen games when Sullinger looks particularly overmatched inside, and there are times when I want to throw my shoe at Olynyk for routinely arriving a step late (note: admittedly, those times have become fewer and fewer as the year progresses).

2. In a somewhat related point, Sullinger and Olynyk have both played a fair amount of center this season, but neither is really a center. Head coach Brad Stevens wants them both to become stretch power forwards, which begs the question of whether the organization really sees them coexisting in the future.

Sullinger still needs to shed 20 or 25 pounds and keep working on his outside shot, and he still needs to work on getting his shot off against length (losing weight would probably help there). Olynyk could stand more work on his body, too, and likewise needs to become more accurate as a shooter. He’s starting to adjust to the NBA speed, which is nice. But he’s not fully there yet.

3. I am about to tell you some optimistic stats regarding the Sullinger-Olynyk duo, but please keep in mind that a fair amount of their 417 minutes together this season (I’m not sure exactly how many) have come against second units. That shouldn’t completely remove your excitement, but it should temper your reaction to the nice numbers. Remember: both of the youngsters can struggle against elite length and athleticism, but neither of those traits are as prevalent coming off the bench.

Without further ado…

Astonishing stat No. 1: With both Olynyk and Sullinger on the court, the Celtics (the friggin’ Celtics!) become the equivalent of the best rebounding team in basketball, with what would be a league-high offensive rebound rate of 34.7 percent. That’s better offensive rebounding than any duo the super-sized Pistons throw out there. It’s better than Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic. It’s better than any of the 250 most-used two-man lineups in the NBA. Not bad for an undersized, not-very-athletic tandem.

You probably consider Sullinger a plus rebounder, and rightfully so. But Olynyk’s made critical strides in that department, especially on the offensive end of the court. His presence also seems to free Sullinger to do even more dirty work than usual. With his whitest, longest-haired teammate on the court, Sullinger’s offensive rebound rate improves from 12.4 percent to 15.2 percent (which would lead the league if Andre Drummond didn’t exist).

“Sully is probably our best low-post player,” head coach Brad Stevens said last week in Indiana, “and (playing with Olynyk) also gets Sully to the rim more than (outside). Sully needs to continue to develop his outside game, but he’s very good down on the block, he’s good at sealing. Kelly can pass and we can play through Kelly, with Sully as more of a low-post threat.”

Astonishing stat No. 2: With both Olynyk and Sullinger on the court, Boston (22-46 on the season) is outscoring opponents by 2.0 points per 100 possessions – a point differential that would be 13th-best in the league, if extrapolated over the entire regular season. Essentially, the duo has made the Celtics above-average, a most impressive feat considering that they currently own the NBA’s fourth-worst record. No other regular Celtics frontcourt pairing has come particularly close.

The defense has improved with Sullinger and Olynyk, but the offense has seen a bigger boost. The Celtics still feature below-average shooting, but thanks to the aforementioned rebounding, improve to the equivalent of the 15th-best offense (tied with the Brooklyn Nets). That’s much better than the 29th-ranked unit Boston has fielded for the entire season.

I mentioned that a lot of Olynyk and Sullinger’s minutes together have come against second units, and that’s true. But we should also keep in mind that Sullinger just turned 22 and Olynyk’s the same age. The former needs to shed weight and should have plenty of room to grow his game, assuming he’s willing to put in the time on his body. The latter seems to become more comfortable in the NBA with every outing, and could also benefit significantly from a summer spent working on explosiveness and outside shooting.

I doubt they’ll ever become an elite duo defensively. Their physical limitations are real. But if both keep improving, especially as shooters (not just away from the basket), could they maybe coexist in a high-powered offense?

“They’re both really cerebral basketball players,” Stevens said, not referring specifically to their offensive potential. “They’re young but the game comes pretty easy to them from the big-picture standpoint. They’re ahead of their years in how they understand the game. Now it’s just adjusting to the speed of it.

“Together, and we’ve talked about this a little bit – the key is, can we get those two guys to guard the two frontcourt players of the other team while they’re in together? Because really, they’re both 4s. And they’re both young 4s.”

Obviously, a lot could change by the beginning of next season. The Celtics might trade away one or both of their young big men. They might acquire a real center, which would presumably limit the amount of minutes their youngsters would play together. They might do any number of things to render this article completely useless.

But still, Olynyk and Sullinger have coexisted pretty well. I wasn’t sure they could and I’m not quite sure exactly what it means that they have. But they have, and with Olynyk's improvements, both now look like intriguing pieces moving forward. I may not know much, but I know that can’t be bad.



bob



.

My only problem with this is that neither one of them are particularly great post defenders. They'll always be at a disadvantage guarding centers, especially Kelly. I don't believe there is any way around that.

Can they play together in stretches? Sure, I don't see why not. But both of their games would actually benefit more with a legit center. Sully would be free to overpower opposing 4s and Kelly could outmaneuver them.




KJ

I see a lot of this as moot.  The real test will be how each of them plays as a PF with a real center.  And will that center be able to play both the high and low post on offense?  Because it looks as though Sully would be a better offensive player down low, while Kelly will proper much more at the top of the key.

Sam