a comparison of possible Center options in the off-season.(columns adjusted)

info from Basketball reference.com

last two years only

I left Kaman off the list due to age/injury.

This year and last
Stat ------Asik------Sanders------Gortat-----Hawes-----Stiemsma-----Monroe ------E. Davis-------Udoh
G ----------119 -----94------------131 -------153 --------123----------152------------134---------114
Min/G------26.2 -----26.8----------31.9-------29.1--------16.6---------32.9-----------18.3---------17.9
FG% ------53.4 -----49.8----------52.9-------45.8 --------49.4---------49.6-----------54.0 ---------42.1
FT%-------57.3-------57.6----------67.1-------77.8--------71.7---------67.6-----------58.9---------71.9
PPG ------8.4--------9.3-----------12.0-------12.0 ---------3.5----------15.5-----------7.0----------4.0
Reb/G-----9.9--------8.9------------8.9--------7.7-----------3.6----------8.7------------5.1----------3.4
Ast/G------0.8--------1.0------------1.4 --------2.6----------0.5----------2.8------------0.6----------0.6
St/G ------0.4--------0.7------------0.5--------0.4-----------0.5----------1.2------------0.4 ---------0.4
Blk/G------ 0.9--------2.5-----------1.5---------1.3----------1.1-----------0.6------------0.9----------1.1
TO/G ------1.8--------1.2-----------1.5---------1.8----------0.7-----------2.5------------0.7 ---------0.7
Foul/G-----2.4--------3.2-----------2.3---------2.9 ---------2.6-----------2.4------------2.1 ---------2.0

Salary---$15M/$8.3 cap---$11M/4 yr--$6-8M (est)--$6-8M (est)--$2-3M (est)--$10-15M (est)--$2-4M (est)--$2-4M (est)

Status----Trade ---Trade---------UFA--------UFA-----------UFA----------RFA-----------RFA------ -RFA

Age -----27----------25-----------29----------25-----------28------------23-------------24----------26

Per 36 Min/ last two years

Stat -------Asik ------Sanders------Gortat-----Hawes----Stiemsma-----Monroe------E. Davis-------Udoh
Reb -------13.3-------11.3----------10.0-------9.5----------8.0----------10.2---------10.0-----------6.9
As -------1.2---------1.3------------1.6-------3.2----------1.1-----------3.0-----------1.2 ----------1.3
Stl -------0.5---------1.0------------0.6-------0.5----------1.2-----------1.3-----------0.7-----------0.9
Blk -------1.3---------3.1------------1.7-------1.6----------2.3-----------0.7-----------1.7 ----------2.1
TO -------2.3---------1.6------------1.8-------2.3 ----------1.7-----------2.7-----------1.4 ----------1.4
PF -------3.4 -------4.4------------2.6-------3.6 ----------5.8-----------2.6-----------4.2 ----------4.0
Pts ------10.7--------11.9-----------13.5-----14.9---------7.2-----------16.9---------13.7----------7.7


Notes-----Re-sign-----Injury?------------------35% 3 pt-----Back up only --Sign & Trade?--Smallish--Smallish

kdp,

EXCELLENT!  What a tremendous amount of thought and effort you put into this, not just to come up with the list of contenders and pretenders and assemble their stats but to align those stats up with dashes so they are easily read.  I can't tell you how much time I've spent doing that with threads I've started.  It makes a HUGE difference, doesn't it?

Before I delve into the stats, let's point out a few things that the stats, as provided here, do not highlight.  Like, that Spencer Hawes is not a strong defensive center and prefers to think of himself as a stretch 4 on offense.  And Greg Monroe, whom I really like, isn't much of a rim protector but has a very high IQ and is one of the best high post passers in the game today.  Asik's ft% the last two years is under 60%.  Davis and Udoh usually play PF, they are long and athletic shotblockers but neither one weighs even 245 nor is over 6'10".  While I don't watch much Raptor or Bucks ball (I don't watch any except when they are playing the Celtics), I would expect that their blocks are coming against PFs more than against Cs.  Udoh is a good weak-side defender, but he would have real problems playing man-to-man against a legit center.  

If we further focus on getting a starting center who is a rim protector, that narrows the list down quite a bit by eliminating Steamer, Davis, Udoh and leaves Asik, Sanders, Gortat, Hawes and Monroe although I'd love for Steamer to come back to Boston as a backup center (which I think is what you were suggesting in your notes at the bottom).

I love Monroe's game, and would give up Bass and a #1 for him, but I wouldn't call him a "rim protector".  He would, however, give you someone else besides Rondo you can run the offense through, I like him that much.  For defensive rim-protecting centers that gets us down to Asik, Sanders, Gortat and Hawes.

I'm intrigued by the Hawes stats.  Tommy Heinsohn does NOT think highly of Hawes as a defensive presence and yet his /36mpg blocks stat is effectively equal to Gortat's and better than Asik's.

Throw in the $ variable and Sanders is ridiculously overpriced (and injured).  Asik fits most of the necessary bill of fare but there's the re-signing aspect of it and the impact that would have on the Bradley, Rondo and possibly Hump re-signings (not to mention you can't have him on the court during crunch time because of his ft shooting.  If he is anywhere near the ball, they'll foul him and even if he's not near the ball since they'd rather have him shoot free throws than anybody else).

Other possibilities for a sign-and-trade:

Andrew Bogut/36mpg

29yearsold, 7'0", 245#, $13M next year, declining slightly for two years after that, signed through 2016-1017
4.9fgm...7.8fgas...629fg%...0.5ftas...1.4ftm...344ft%...3.7ORB...9.9DRB...13.7TRB...2.2ast...1.0stls...2.5blks...2.0TOs...4.3PFs...10.3points


Nikola Pekovic/36mpg (if Kevin Love leaves, would they consider starting over?)

28 years old, 6'11", 245#, $12M through 2017-2018

8.1fgm...15.2fga...535fg%...8.1fgas...15.2fgm...3.9fta...5.3ftm...74ft%...4.5ORB...5.7DRB...10.3TRB...1.1ast...0.6stls...0.5blks...1.7TOs...
2.8PFs...20.2pts

Another player I find intriguing is Timofey Mozgov, of Denver.  He looked horrible when I saw him play in summer league a while back.  He was completely uncoordinated, still is to some extent, but he is HUGE and is STRONG.  Not a starter, but a BIG back up if we can't get someone like Steamer.

As far as Kaman goes, sure he's old, but we need to get our young'uns used to playing with a bona fide center and not just helter-skelter small ball.  If he comes cheap, I'd consider him if we can't get someone better.

Thanks again for your effort and research.


.

Bob

Just a though when reading your response. How many teams have a "rim protector" ?

Not saying we don't need one but I just don't see anyone out there that will become readily available at a "reasonable" price.

As a center is "rim protecting" that important? Certainly with our young team it would appear so but as we get a year older I would hope the breakdowns on the defense would improve thus the need would not become so apparent as it is now.

Can we "power forward" teams to death?

Oh well, the lottery awaits. And with DA who knows.

beat

PS KDP thanks for the fix of the stats...... makes it a whole lot easier to look at. Before I thought I was looking at my bathroom scales.........I keep seeing numbers in an order I never saw them in before.

Great job KDP.

Also agree with beat's thoughts.  A rim protector is good to have without argument, but I question the absolute necesity at what appears to be the cost.  As the league is currently stocked, I think it's possible to contend without a dominant, rim-protecting center. It's one very good approach, but there may be other valid ways to build.

If blocked shots were such an important stat Manute Bol would have been MVP for 4-5 years in a row, Mark Eaton, Shawn Bradley, would have been right there too. Plus I gather they probably altered at least as many shots as they blocked.

Seems a bit of an over rated stat, in of itself. How many championships did those guys lead their teams too?

IF (and that is a lot bigger word than just 2 letters) we can get our hands on a guy that can just play the position like Monroe who brings size/bulk and some offense to the table, rebounds OK and is durable, I'd be content. Hate using a pick on a center project that might take 2 years to develop into something........or develop into another Fab Melo.

beat

Since this is a wide open discussion, another guy to consider is Gorgui Dieng of Minnesota. He was discussed here as an option for Boston in last year's draft -- he came from Louisville -- but Minnesota took him with the 21st pick.

For most of the season, Dieng barely budged off the bench, but with injuries to Nikola Pekovic, he's gotten a shot to play the past couple of weeks and has done well. Here are his averages over the past 14 days.

30:42 minutes
57.7% FG
72.0% FT
11.1 points
4.3 offensive rebounds
12.3 total rebounds
1.4 assists
1.0 steals
1.0 blocks
0.7 turnovers

The blocks are lower than I'd like, but I think he has the potential to be better in that department as indicated by five blocks he had in a recent game against Sacramento. He led the Big East in blocks, set the record for blocks in a season at Louisville, and had seven blocks in the Final Four semifinal against Michigan State, so I think he'd qualify as a rim protector.

Overall, those are excellent numbers, and they match up with his per-36-mnute stats for the season. The rebounding numbers are great, and less than one turnover per game while playing 30 minutes is remarkable.

He's 6'10" without shoes, 6'11" with shoes (the usual way basketball player height is given), and has a 7'4" wingspan. He was 230 pounds pre-draft and has put on some muscle since then.

Minnesota obviously has him cheap on his rookie contract, and I don't know what Ainge would have to offer to get him in a trade. Just thought I'd throw him into the mix.

Outside, i'm in a fantasy league, in the semi right now and needed a center/pf.......picked him up 2 days ago.

Interesting to say the least, appears to be able to do everything pretty well.

beat

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/5191/

beat wrote:If blocked shots were such an important stat Manute Bol would have been MVP for 4-5 years in a row, Mark Eaton, Shawn Bradley, would have been right there too. Plus I gather they probably altered at least as many shots as they blocked.

Mark Eaton was a significantly better player than Bol or Bradley. They were all extremely limited offensively, but Bol was more of a gimmick like Eddie Gaedel and Bradley was probably the most dunked on 7-footer in history.

Mark Eaton, on the other hand, was Defensive Player of the Year twice, all-defensive first or second team five times, and received a few MVP votes. He is the all-time leader in blocks per game since 1974 when they began recording blocks. (Russell, Chamberlain, Thurmond, and others from earlier years would surpass him, but that's still notable.) His defensive presence was a significant factor behind Utah's success.

Boston would be better served by having a more well-rounded player, but having someone as effective defensively as Mark Eaton would be a dramatic improvement.

beat wrote:Outside, i'm in a fantasy league, in the semi right now and needed a center/pf.......picked him up 2 days ago.

Interesting to say the least, appears to be able to do everything pretty well.

beat

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/5191/

I lost in the first round, but I'm telling my youngest son to pick Dieng up. Considering how well he's playing, he should continue to get playing time even if Pekovic comes back.

It's no secret that I feel a rim protector is a must.  Suffering through opponents' layup parade this season is all the reason I need.  But it's not the only reason.  Having a rim protector should make the defensive performances of his teammates more more effective.  It's never about one person; it's all about the team.

I'm not sure why people keep referring to Asik's FT percentage of the past two years without also noting that, a year ago, his free throw shooting improved 10% over the previous year; and his free throw shooting  shooting this season (based on roughly 70 FT) has improved 5% over last year.  That's a 15% improvement over two years and suggests, at least to me, that (1) he's capable of improvement and (2) the fact that the past is not necessarily the future.

As for free throw shooting in the stretch, during relatively short spans of time when that might be a consideration (and its importance is FAR overstated in discussions like this one), a good team can figure out a way to minimize the offensive touches of one player.  Heck, I know of a center who who averaged 56% from the line and won 11 championships.  Asik takes four free throws a game.  If he misses two of those four but prevents even as few as four layups a game, I'd call that a darned good tradeoff.

I know I appear to be pushing Asik all the time.  But, in actuality, I have no particular affinity for him.  It's just that, when I list the things I don't want in a center, he's usually the only one left standing.

As for what I emphatically do NOT want is: some four masquerading as a center (goodbye Davis and Udoh); someone in danger of chronic injuries (my only reservation about Asik and a stronger reservation about Sanders); someone nearing "over the hill" status (goodbye Gortat and Bogut), someone who's most comfortable playing away from the hoop on offense (goodbye Hawes), someone who is no better than mediocre at best at rim protection (goodbye Pekovic and, reluctantly, Monroe), and someone who's probably a backup lifer (goodbye Mozgov, Stiemsma).

Put it all together, and I was right—there's no perfect candidate.  But, under the assumption that Asik would be checked over carefully by the Celtics medical staff before being acquired, Asik ekes out the "victory," although the idea of Monroe really does intrigue me despite his lack of rim protection skills.  Perhaps, being out of Drummond's shadow, Monroe would enhance those skills.  And anyone who could contribute to pace (including his defensive rebounding/outlet prowess) gives me a warm feeling.

Thinking it over, I could be pretty happy with either Asik or Monroe.  I could live with Gortat (who has the advantage of being an unrestricted free agent, although I'd prefer a trade or sign-and-trade for cap reasons).  Sanders would be a fourth possibility depending on what the Celtics medicos find.

Sam

Outside

My only point in including Mark Eaton was in pointing out block shots in of itself is not a 'make or break' stat.

Certainly he was by far the best of those mentioned.

Gonna ask a trivia question then look up the answer cause I don't know it. But when was the last time the league leader in blocked shots, played on a Championship team? ( I'm guessing Jabbar) now I'll see if that is right.


beat

The Blocked shot leader has only won 2 championships since the stat was kept.

Jabbar in 1980 and one other. Bill Walton in 1977.

beat

yeah..sorry about the crap original post, but I figured out how to make it at least readable.

I have to admit as I was doing the research this morning (I stole the idea from someone over at the Boston. com forum), I was surprised at how Hawes held up in blocks.

Udoh and Ed Davis I added after looking at FA's this off-season and since I had put Steamer in the mix for  a back up  (and cheaper) type option.

I am not sold on it, but I have to admit that with Coach liking his big men to have 3 pt range..........I think Hawes may in the mix in the off-season.

best passer (ass to TO ), by FAR the best outside shot, second best scorer and  better shot blocker on defense than Asik.

Like I said not sold on it myself, and I was VERY surprised when I did the per 36 min # on all the players.

well, maybe Ainge will just swing that blockbuster for Love and then Stevens will have his outside shooting big he likes.

Beat,

Interesting bit of information. Two very good examples.

It leads me to make a distinction between blocked shots as a single stat and having what we're referring to as a rim protector.

For example, Dallas in 2010-11 didn't have anyone in the top 10 in blocked shots, but Tyson Chandler was a rim protector who had a significant impact on opposing offenses and was a big part of why they won the title. Take a look at the years before that. I've indicated in parentheses if a player was in the top 10 in blocks per game that season.

2010 - Lakers - Gasol (8th) and Bynum
2009 - Lakers - Gasol and Bynum
2008 - Celtics - Perkins and Garnett
2007 - Spurs - Duncan (5th)
2006 - Miami - Mourning (3rd) and Shaq
2005 - Spurs - Duncan (3rd)
2004 - Pistons - Ben Wallace (2nd) and Rasheed Wallace
2003 - Spurs - Duncan (3rd)
2002 - Lakers - Shaq (10th)
2001 - Lakers - Shaq (4th)
2000 - Lakers - Shaq (3rd)
1999 - Spurs - Duncan (7th) and Robinson (9th)

The Bulls in the '90s didn't have great shotblocking, but Houston won the two years between the Bulls' runs with Hakeem being second in the league both years in blocks.

So you don't need to lead the league in blocks, but the standard is to have one or two very good rim protectors to win the title. The Heat and the Bulls are exceptions.

Outside, I agree.  A player doesn't have to be a great shot blocker to be a great rim protector.  I happen to like the term "intimidator" much better than "rim protestor."  One can be an intimidator in terms of toughness, unwillingness to be moved, and ability to force opponents away from the basket.  One can also be an intimidator by virtue of blocks or threats of blocks (a la Russell).  One reason I like Asik is because I believe he has elements of both qualities.  I'm not sure that's as true of any of the other possibilities mentioned on this thread.

Sam