Rookie rankings.

I used draft express, Draft net and CBS sportline mock drafts. All updated 3/26. combined them and then came up with an average for each player.

these are the top 30 guys in order.


1-------SF---------Andrew Wiggins-------6-8
2-------C----------Joel Embiid------------7-0
3-------SF---------Jabari Parker----------6-8
4-------PF---------Julius Randle----------6-9
5-------G----------Marcus Smart---------6-4
6-------PF---------Noah Vonleh----------6-10
7-------G----------Dante Exum-----------6-5
8-------SF---------Doug McDermott-----6-8
9-------PF---------Aaron Gordon---------6-9
10-----SG---------Gary Harris-----------6-4
11------SF--------Dario Saric-----------6-10
12------SF--------Rodney Hood---------6-8
13------SF--------T J Warren-----------6-8
14------C---------Willie Cauley-Stein---7-0
15------SF--------Kyle Anderson--------6-9
16-----PG---------Tyler Ennis-----------6-2
17------PF---------Adreian Payne------6-10
18------SG--------Nik Stauskas--------6-6
19------PF--------Clint Capela---------6-10
20------PF--------Montrezl Harrell -----6-8
21------PF--------Jerami Grant--------6-8
22------SF--------James Young--------6-6
23------G---------Zach LeVine---------6-5
24------PF-------Cleanthony Early-----6-8
25------C---------Jusuf Nurkic--------6-11
26-----SF---------K J McDaniels-------6-6
27-----PG---------Elfrid Payton--------6-3
28-----SG---------P J Hairston---------6-6
29-----PG---------Vasilije Micic--------6-4
30-----PG---------Semaj Christon -----6-3

Not a midget amongst them.



KJ

updated for 4/6:

Same as above Draft net, Draft express and CBS Payton mock drafts used and combined. Must be in at least TWO of the three drafts.

Rank---Pos-----Player------------Hgt-----Wgt------School
1--------SF----Andrew Wiggins---6-8-----200-----Kansas
2--------C------Joel Embiid-------7-0-----250-----Kansas
3--------SF -----Jabari Parker-----6-8-----235------Duke
4--------PF------Julius Randle-----6-9----250 ------Kentucky
5--------G-------Dante Exum------6-5----188
6--------PF------Noah Vonleh-----6-10----240------Indiana
7--------G-------Marcus Smart----6-4-----220-----Oklahoma St
8--------SF------Doug McDermott--6-8----225-----Creighton
9--------PF-------Aaron Gordon----6-9----225------Arizona
10------SG-------Gary Harris-------6-4----210-----Michigan St
11------SF--------Dario Saric------6-10---225
12------SG--------Nik Stauskas----6-6----205------Michigan
13------SF--------Rodney Hood----6-8----215------Duke
14------PG---------Tyler Ennis-----6-2----180------Syracuse
15------SF---------T J Warren------6-8----215-----N. Carolina St
16------SF---------Kyle Anderson--6-9----230------UCLA
17-------C---------Willie Cauley-Stein--7-0---244----Kentucky
18-------PF--------Adreian Payne----6-10----245----Michigan St
19-------PF--------Jerami Grant-----6-8------210----Syracuse
20-------PF--------Montrezl Harrell---6-8-----235----Louisville
21-------PF--------Clint Capela------6-10-----211
22-------SF--------James Young-----6-6------215----Kentucky
23-------SG--------P J Hairston------6-6------220----D-League
24-------SF--------K J McDaniels-----6-6-----200----Clemson
25-------G --------Zach LeVine------6-5------180----UCLA
26-------C---------Jusuf Nurkic------6-11----280
27-------PF--------Cleanthony Early--6-8----219-----Wichita St
28------PG---------Elfrid Payton------6-3----180------Lafayette
29------PG---------Vasilije Micic------6-4----185
30-------C---------Mitch McGary------6-10---255-----Michigan

31------PG--------Semaj Christon----6-3-----190-----Xavier
32------PG--------Deonte Burton-----6-1-----190-----Nevada
33------SG--------Jordan Adams-----6-5-----220-----UCLA
34------PG--------Jahil Carson--------5-10---180-----Arizona St
35------PG--------Shabazz Napier-----6-1----180-----U Conn
36------SF--------Glenn Robinson III---6-6---220-----Michigan
37------SG--------Nick Johnson--------6-2----198-----Arizona
38------SG--------C J Wilcox-----------6-5----195-----Washington
39------SG--------Markel Brown-------6-3----190-----Oklahoma St
40------SG--------Aaron Harrison------6-6----218-----Kentucky
41------SF--------LaQuinton Ross------6-8---220------Ohio St
42------SG-------Bogdan Bogdanovic---6-6---200
43------SG-------Jordan Clarkson------6-5----193----Missouri
44------SG-------Jabari Brown---------6-3----203----Missouri
45-------C--------Walter Tavares-------7-2----265
46-------PF-------Johnny O'Bryant III--6-9----256----LSU
47-------C--------A J Hammons--------7-0----251----Purdue
48-------PF-------Jarnell Stokes-------6-8-----260----Tennessee
49-------PG-------Russ Smith----------6-0----165-----Louisville
50-------PF-------Cory Jefferson-------6-9----220------Baylor
51------SF-----Thanasis Antetokounmpo---6-7---210----Delaware
52-------PF-------James McAdoo-------6-9----230-----N. Carolina
53-------SG------Jordan McRae--------6-6-----185-----Tennessee
54-------SG------Lamar Patterson-----6-5-----220-----Pittsburgh
55-------SG------Alessandro Gentile----6-6----200

Thanks for the info, KDP.  Nice to familiarize oneself with the names.  Of course, mock drafts prior to assignment of team lottery position cannot factor in which team will be making which pick.  Especially for those teams selecting based on need, that will be a very important factor.

Sam

Just to be a pain let me point out that these are not NOT NBA rookies.  Many of them are college "rookies" who aspire to become NBA rookies.

This is like drooling over summer league before summer league.  Baby chicks competing to see which ones get to live anther day and which ones will be tomorrow's buffalo wings.  

Until they lace up NBA sneakers and play against the big boys in games that count they're bubble players.

Remrmber Kelly in summer league?  He was a world-beater.  Then he went up against real talent and went "wtf?"


bob


.

A very subjective question, Bob, and it's fine if you think it so unfair that you'd rather not respond.  (Although, frankly, I can't imagine your ever not responding.)  How do you think the current Kelly Olynyk measures up now (against sterner competition) against the Summer League Olynyk (against lesser competition)?

Sam

sam wrote:A very subjective question, Bob, and it's fine if you think it so unfair that you'd rather not respond.  (Although, frankly, I can't imagine your ever not responding.)  How do you think the current Kelly Olynyk measures up now (against sterner competition) against the Summer League Olynyk (against lesser competition)?

Sam

sam,

Kelly was #1 on the rookie ladder after summer league.  He might not be a starter on an all-rookie team at the end of this rookie season.

5 - Plumlee, Adams
4 - Antic
3- Greek Freak
2 -Oladipo, Hardaway, jr.
1 - Carter-Williams


There was talk of Kelly having a shot at ROY in November.  Not anymore.

I still like Kelly and think he will have a very good pro career, it just took him 3-4 months to learn and adapt to all the newness of it all, but he's not the pick of the litter like he was in July.


bob


.

Bob,

Thanks for the answer, but my question didn't have anything to do with comparisons of Kelly with other players.  I was wondering whether, isolating only on Kelly, how much (if at all) he had improved since the way he looked in the Summer League.

Again, if it's an unfair question, feel free to skip it.

Sam

sam wrote:Thanks for the info, KDP.  Nice to familiarize oneself with the names.  Of course, mock drafts prior to assignment of team lottery position cannot factor in which team will be making which pick.  Especially for those teams selecting based on need, that will be a very important factor.

Sam

mock drafts would not be my "ideal" way to make these "rankings".

I would prefer to use a top 50 or 100 player ratings, but those are not updated near as often  as the more popular mock drafts are. So I am left with this option to be more current.

and  I should note these are never supposed to be a predictor of where a player will be drafted, just sort of a "consensus" of where these three self-proclaimed draft guru's  see players falling.

As such it is mostly a guide for what some think of the youngsters.


IF it is OK, I will try to update this thread as the mocks changes. it will be easy to see who players go up and down in the "esteem" of the draft guru's.

there will also be changes once we know for sure who is entering this years draft.
right now, I would guess Napier and the Harrison twins moving up into the first round.
I think Stauskas is too high at #12 and will drop down closer to the #20 spot as the draft gets closer. But time will tell.

kdp59 wrote:

sam wrote:Thanks for the info, KDP.  Nice to familiarize oneself with the names.  Of course, mock drafts prior to assignment of team lottery position cannot factor in which team will be making which pick.  Especially for those teams selecting based on need, that will be a very important factor.

Sam

mock drafts would not be my "ideal" way to make these "rankings".

I would prefer to use a top 50 or 100 player ratings, but those are not updated near as often  as the more popular mock drafts are. So I am left with this option to be more current.

and  I should note these are never supposed to be a predictor of where a player will be drafted, just sort of a "consensus" of where these three self-proclaimed draft guru's  see players falling.

As such it is mostly a guide for what some think of the youngsters.


IF it is OK, I will try to update this thread as the mocks changes. it will be easy to see who players go up and down in the "esteem" of the draft guru's.
Tng this years draft.
right now, I would guess Napier and the Harrison twins moving up into the first round.
I think Stauskas is too high at #12 and will drop down closer to the #20 spot as the draft gets closer. But time will tell.

kdp,

Please do keep updating this thread.  Thanks for the effort and interest.  I'm just unnaturally cynical when it comes to the draft and that should not deter anybody else.


bob


.

Vonleh is not 6'10" hes closer to 6'8" hes lucky if hes 6'9", saw him in a loss to Purdue go against AJ Hammons, he was a midget compared to AJ.

sam wrote:Bob,

Thanks for the answer, but my question didn't have anything to do with comparisons of Kelly with other players.  I was wondering whether, isolating only on Kelly, how much (if at all) he had improved since the way he looked in the Summer League.

Again, if it's an unfair question, feel free to skip it.

Sam

sam,

I wouldn't say the question is "unfair" ("unfair" to me infers fluidly shifting double standards) so much as "not that simple".

First of all, I find it interesting that you want to isolate Kelly as a player when nobody preaches the religion of 5-man unit team ball like you.

Nevertheless, since the 5-man units are made of up 5 men, let's look at this cog.

Here are Kelly's stats from summer league:

Kelly Olynyk (BOS)

Gms.......MPG.......PPG..........FGM-FGAs......FG%..........RPG.....APG.....SPG.....BPG
5..........24.2........18.0.........7.4-12.8..........0.578.........7.8......2.4......1.80....0.40


Now, here are those stats normalized to /36mpg:

Gms.......MPG.......PPG..........FGM-FGAs......FG%..........RPG.....APG.....SPG.....BPG
5...........36.........26.8.........11.0-19.0.......57.8..........11.6.....3.6.....2.67.....0.60


Here are Kelly's numbers/36mpg from basketball-reference.com: (65 games played).  I've deleted some of the stats because of the summer league's incomplete stat collection.


65.........36.........14.7.........5.6-12.4........455...........9.3......2.8.......1.0.......0.8


So, statistically, Kelly's numbers are off /36mpg from summer league.  Perhaps that is because summer league is more like an intramural tournament than a professional basketball league but that difference enables players to shine or not.  Minimal practice, limited opportunity to develop chemistry and a lot of bubble players getting significant playing time creates a false scenario for comparison.  So, Kelly soared over his competition and was able to thrive in an environment that was still, for obvious reasons, less structured.  Some of the reason for that was the generally inferior competition and some of it was because, at 7'0", Kelly was almost always one of the biggest players on the court.  Now, in the big boys league, he's may be one of the tallest but he is definitely not one of the strongest, longest or quickest.

Statistics aside, Kelly flowed in summer league.  The ball left his hands without hesitation, he made his moves with confidence and with success.  In the NBA games, he's getting blocked regularly and that got into his head (just as Sully getting blocked a lot last season got into his),  he's not blowing past people and, perhaps most inexplicably, his shooting motion has become more hesitant.  You would think that his shooting motion would be his shooting motion would be his shooting motion, but it was obvious to me (I seem to be using that word "obvious" a lot in this post, but that's probably obvious to you at this point) that he was overthinking.  The game was still too fast for him and he was trying to think his way through plays rather than just instinctively flowing through them and the time he took to do that gave the defense a chance to adjust/rotate/close and that reduced the likelihood of whatever decision he made being a successful one.

Kelly's season has been a tale of two seasons.  There was November-February, where he couldn't do anything right, was getting pushed around like an overachieving 8th grader who jumped ahead to high school and was not effective; and from about a week or two before the all-star break until now.  He has had bad games since then, of course (or, should I say, OBVIOUSLY) but he looks much more comfortable and is moving to his spots, rotating more quickly and is actually grabbing some rugged boards (something I didn't think he'd be able to do until the off-season and months in the gym).

In conclusion, in the battle of Kelly vs Kelly, I'd say that Kelly vs weaker, less organized and less experienced competition did better (more fluid, more confident, more impactful) than Kelly vs stiffer competition (go figure!) but he's doing better now than 3 months ago.  

In the first half of this season and we were all disappointed because we weren't seeing "summer league Kelly" I cautioned against throwing the baby out with the bath water by trading him now.  That's why it's called "being a rookie" (and why I don't drool over the draft like many if not most basketball fans do).  He still plays like a rookie but not a brand spanking new rookie and that will improve with time too.  Look at Sully.  He got blocked constantly last year but not so much this year.  He's smart, has excellent IQ (like Kelly, another coach's son) and adapted.

I don't know if this answered your question.


bob


.

Bob,

There's nothing antithetical about the desire to evaluate an individual player and also being a huge devotee of team ball.  Given the choice, I prefer to focus on the team rather than on individual players, but I discuss many players on this board.  When possible, I try to do so within the context of their value to the team rather than citing some subjective, individual bromide such as "top 10."  So I have no idea what all that stuff was about.

A far as Kelly is concerned, one reason I twice mentioned that I might be asking an unfair question (and I have no idea what the "fluidity shifting double standards stuff" was about either), was because it could be argued that, in Summer League, the team is not as important as showcasing individual talents.  I thought Kelly displayed a good shooting touch (especially in and around the lane) and very promising individual passing skills—although against mediocre competition.  His individual rebounding and defense were forgettable.

During the initial period of the Celtics season, his shooting fell of precipitously, although his passing was a definite glimmer.  His rebounding and defense were still pretty putrid.  Since then, he has slowly evolved so that I believe he's shooting at least as well as during Summer Ball—and against tougher opponents.  I'd venture to say that he's made dramatic improvement on his driving and finishing around the basket.

Time after time, Kelly has been a catalyst as the bench outplayed the starters in coming back from deficits or trying to maintain leads.  He's scored aggressively (he was more of a jump shooter in the Summer League); he's gotten rebounds (including a load of offensive boards; he's run the floor and finished fast breaks as well as passing off like a veteran PG to teammates for fast break scores.

As far as his impact on the team is concerned, Kelly has definitely become an integral part of the core rotation group.  He has been instrumental in the Celtics being able to improve incrementally in their gang rebounding efforts, as he now collects 88% as many boards per minute as either Sully or Humph (the team leaders).  I believe it's significant that I was motivated to mention his rebounding even before his shooting—which I believe is at least the level of what it was in the Summer League (and arguably more impactful)—especially his drives to the hoop that I seldom saw in the Summer League.  His defense has picked up a notch, although it has a long, long way to go before it's of major league quality.  His feel for the game and his basketball intellect, which were noticeable during the Summer League, are even more so now.

As for the stats, putting them on the basis of 36 minutes does a good job of satisfying one context.  But other contexts are also present.

• For one thing, during the Summer League, Kelly wasn't sharing the scoring with nearly as many teammates as during the regular season. In fact, during the Summer League, only two of Kelly's teammates (barely) averaged in the very low double figures.  During the regular season, six of Kelly's current teammates have averaged scoring in double figures per 36 minutes.

• For another thing, you mentioned that he started poorly this season, but then you combined the entire season-to-date in citing his stats.  Since he has obviously improved so much, a vastly more relevant statistical analysis would pit his pre-All-Star Game figures against his post-All-Star Game figures.

• Since the All-Star Game, Kelly has ranked a very close #2 on the team in points per 36 minutes: Jeff Green 17.6, Kelly Olynyk 17.1.

• Between the pre-All-Star game portion and the post-All-Star game portion of the season, Kelly has improved his shooting percentage from .428-.500 and his 3-point shooting percentage from .283 to .400.

• Since the All-Star Game, Kelly has cut his turnovers to 2.6 per 36 minutes, compared with 3.57 in the Summer League.

Sam

cowens/oldschool wrote:Vonleh is not 6'10" hes closer to 6'8" hes lucky if hes 6'9", saw him in a loss to Purdue go against AJ Hammons, he was a midget compared to AJ.

Hammons is a LEGIT 7-0, so most are shorter.

Here is Vonleh's measurable info form last year (he was 17 at the time I believe).

2013 Hoop Summit USA Junior Team Measurements
April 19, 2013
Noah Vonleh
Height w/ Shoes: 6'9.75
Weight: 242
Reach: 8'10
Wingspan: 7'4


From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz2yIO8yaIW
http://www.draftexpress.com

sam wrote:Bob,

There's nothing antithetical about the desire to evaluate an individual player and also being a huge devotee of team ball.  Given the choice, I prefer to focus on the team rather than on individual players, but I discuss many players on this board.  When possible, I try to do so within the context of their value to the team rather than citing some subjective, individual bromide such as "top 10."  So I have no idea what all that stuff was about.

A far as Kelly is concerned, one reason I twice mentioned that I might be asking an unfair question (and I have no idea what the "fluidity shifting double standards stuff" was about either), was because it could be argued that, in Summer League, the team is not as important as showcasing individual talents.  I thought Kelly displayed a good shooting touch (especially in and around the lane) and very promising individual passing skills—although against mediocre competition.  His individual rebounding and defense were forgettable.

During the initial period of the Celtics season, his shooting fell of precipitously, although his passing was a definite glimmer.  His rebounding and defense were still pretty putrid.  Since then, he has slowly evolved so that I believe he's shooting at least as well as during Summer Ball—and against tougher opponents.  I'd venture to say that he's made dramatic improvement on his driving and finishing around the basket.

Time after time, Kelly has been a catalyst as the bench outplayed the starters in coming back from deficits or trying to maintain leads.  He's scored aggressively (he was more of a jump shooter in the Summer League); he's gotten rebounds (including a load of offensive boards; he's run the floor and finished fast breaks as well as passing off like a veteran PG to teammates for fast break scores.

As far as his impact on the team is concerned, Kelly has definitely become an integral part of the core rotation group.  He has been instrumental in the Celtics being able to improve incrementally in their gang rebounding efforts, as he now collects 88% as many boards per minute as either Sully or Humph (the team leaders).  I believe it's significant that I was motivated to mention his rebounding even before his shooting—which I believe is at least the level of what it was in the Summer League (and arguably more impactful)—especially his drives to the hoop that I seldom saw in the Summer League.  His defense has picked up a notch, although it has a long, long way to go before it's of major league quality.  His feel for the game and his basketball intellect, which were noticeable during the Summer League, are even more so now.

As for the stats, putting them on the basis of 36 minutes does a good job of satisfying one context.  But other contexts are also present.

• For one thing, during the Summer League, Kelly wasn't sharing the scoring with nearly as many teammates as during the regular season. In fact, during the Summer League, only two of Kelly's teammates (barely) averaged in the very low double figures.  During the regular season, six of Kelly's current teammates have averaged scoring in double figures per 36 minutes.

• For another thing, you mentioned that he started poorly this season, but then you combined the entire season-to-date in citing his stats.  Since he has obviously improved so much, a vastly more relevant statistical analysis would pit his pre-All-Star Game figures against his post-All-Star Game figures.

• Since the All-Star Game, Kelly has ranked a very close #2 on the team in points per 36 minutes: Jeff Green 17.6, Kelly Olynyk 17.1.

• Between the pre-All-Star game portion and the post-All-Star game portion of the season, Kelly has improved his shooting percentage from .428-.500 and his 3-point shooting percentage from .283 to .400.

• Since the All-Star Game, Kelly has cut his turnovers to 2.6 per 36 minutes, compared with 3.57 in the Summer League.

Sam

sam,


When I said "unfair" as "fluidity shifting double standards" what I intended to mean was that was not comparing two prospects the same way with the same standards. I wasn't referring to you or anybody else on this board, I was just saying that when you said that if the question was "unfair" I didn't have to answer, that's how I understand the meaning of that word. To be "unfair" suggests, to me, that someone isn't getting a fair shake.

That's all.


bob


.

Bob,

I didn't infer that you were referring to anyone in particular.  I've just never seen the phrase before and had no idea what it meant.  I never imagined it could to refer to comparing two prospects because my original question dealt only with Kelly's improvement.

No biggie, and thanks for the clarification.

I hope I was clear about why I thought I might have been asking an unanswerable question, and my intent was only to give you an "out" if you felt the same way.

Sam

Ranking Kelly is quite difficult. He either plays really well, or he plays like an end-of-the-bench D-leaguer.

I'd agree with BobH that he certainly isn't the pick of the litter. His deficiencies outweight his benefits when compared to others in his draft class. Playing against the Summer League and an opposing team's 2-3 units, Kelly can look really good. But pitting him against starters grinds his game to a halt often.

I don't think Kelly will ever be starter material anywhere. He's really a 7th or 8th guy off the bench, which is exactly where he is now.



KJ

Olynyk has come a long way during the season. He's made himself into a deserving rotation player.