The Probability of Something Happening Is Probable

For those of you stressing over the Celtics' final draft lottery position. There are just TOO many variables to actually think you can get a handle on this.


An excerpt from a CSNNE article:



It’s one thing if they were playing for the worst record in the league. But the difference between tied for fourth and tied for fifth? Again, odds are odds but the lottery is such a crapshoot.

Do you know that it’s been 10 years since the team with the worst record won the lottery? That it’s been 18 years since the team with the second-worst record won?

In the nine years since the worst came out on top, the fifth and third worst records have each won twice. The fourth, sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth have all won, too.

And here’s how the top three picks have broken down over the last nine years:

2005: 6 – 4 – 1
2006: 5 – 2 – 3  
2007: 7 – 5 – 4
2008: 9 – 1 – 3
2009: 3 – 6 – 4
2010: 5 – 6 – 1
2011: 8 – 1 – 6
2012: 4 – 1 – 2
2013: 3 – 1 – 8

The worst team finished in the Top 3 six times, but that doesn’t concern the Celtics this year. More importantly: The sixth spot ended up in the Top 3 four times, which is tied with the third spot for second most. The four and five spots have been in the Top 3 three times. The eighth and second (!!) spots have been there twice. Seven and nine have each cracked the Top 3 once.

It’s all over the place.

Not to mention, the draft is an even bigger crapshoot than the lottery. Getting lucky in May doesn’t ensure good fortune in June. The same way that getting screwed in the lottery doesn’t guarantee that you’re screwed for draft.

In 2005, the Hornets had the second-worst record in the league, dropped from second to fourth and landed Chris Paul. In 2006, the Raptors jumped from fifth to first and landed Andrea Bargnani.

In 2007, the Blazers jumped from seventh to first and grabbed Greg Oden. The Sonics jumped from fifth to second and had to settle for one of the best players in NBA history. Meanwhile, the Bulls had the ninth-worst record, stayed at nine and then sat back as Mike Conley, Jeff Green, Jianlian Yi, Corey Brewer and Brandan Wright were selected and Joakim Noah fell into their lap.

In 2008, Seattle fell from second to fourth, and ended up with Russell Westbrook. In 2009, the Clippers jumped from third to first and landed Blake Griffin, the Grizzlies jumped from sixth to second and landed Hasheem Thabeet. The Warriors were seventh, stayed at seven and had to settle for Stephen Curry.

In 2010, the Kings had the third worst record, dropped down to fifth and ended up with DeMarcus Cousins. Five picks later, the Pacers grabbed Paul George at No. 10.

And OK, you get my point. You just never know. At this stage in the game, one win or loss will certainly change the Celtics future. It’s another key moment in how this will all unfold. But we can’t be sure that it will change things for the better. The Celtics could finish tied for fourth, win the lottery and draft the next Greg Oden. They could finish tied for fifth, draft eighth, and end up with next Steph Curry, Joakim Noah or Paul George. It’s a toss up.

But a win is a win. Walking off the court with their heads high is lasting. It’s forever. These guys are still Celtics. They still deserve that. So for one last night: Let’s go Celtics! Let’s see them come out on top.

But let’s not forget one important thing:

They’re probably going to lose.

After all, that’s what this season was all about. They’ve lost more games than all but two teams in Celtics history.

As bad as it’s been, the end is still bittersweet. Having the Celtics around in any shape or form is better than not having them at all. It’s going to be a while until we see the Green again. More than sixth months until basketball’s back in Boston.

But at the same time, it is time. The end of this season, win or lose, is a very good thing for the Celtics. It means that, no matter how long it takes for them to re-scale Everest, that they’re a year closer to the top. Another step closer to a critical draft and offseason. Maybe even on the verge of reacquiring some expectations, installing some kind of bar; something to strive for other than trying hard and losing games. You know, real basketball stuff. It’s coming. It’s exciting.

And win or lose tonight, it’s time to turn the page.





bob
MY NOTE:  We're either ending up in 4th, 5th or 6th.  Most likely 5th.  Here are the odds differences between 4th and 6th.  The difference between 5th and 6th is minimal.

Pos-----Chances-----1st-----2nd-----3rd-----4th-----5th-----6th-----7th
4--------119--------.119----.126-----.133----.099---.351-----.160---.012
5---------88--------.088----.097-----.107----.261---.360-----.084---.004
6---------63--------.063----.071-----.081----.439---.305-----.040---.001


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