The TPE, Carmelo Anthony And The Asik Deal, Revisited

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/5/13/5714222/the-tpe-carmelo-anthony-and-the-asik-trade-revisited



The TPE, Carmelo Anthony, and the Asik trade revisited
By wjsy on May 13 2014, 2:46p 23




Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
The biggest trade chip the Celtics have this summer might not be Rajon Rondo in the final year of his contract or the affordable and reliable Brandon Bass.


One of the hottest trade scenarios has recently ousted Houston looking to make an upgrade to their roster. There's the Rondo-to-the-Rockets rumor that will be raised again between Danny Ainge and Daryl Morey, but something smaller could be done that would allow the Celtics to retain their All-Star point guard, add the defensive center they've been looking for in Omer Asik, and free up cap space for Morey to add a third superstar in Carmelo Anthony. Here's the scenario:

For the Rockets to sign free-agent-to-be Carmelo Anthony, they'll need to make room for another max deal on their cap sheet with the redundant Asik and expiring Jeremy Lin likely to be moved. It's doubtful that Phil Jackson would help Morey cherry pick one of the best players in the league from his team in a sign-and-trade, so Houston would have to find a home for Asik and Lin.

Enter the Boston Celtics and their $10.3 traded player exception. Because this deal would fall almost a year from when the exception was generated, it's considered a non-simultaneous trade. According to Larry Coon's CBA FAQ, "a team can acquire only up to 100% plus $100,000 of the outgoing salary." For the Celtics, that's the $10.3M that was created in the Paul Pierce-for-Keith-Bogans transaction of last summer's big trade. Check out this reddit thread for an explanation.  http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1igbmp/explaining_the_celticsnets_trade_in_1000_easy/

Now, for Ainge to cash in on the TPE AND the Rockets to get their man, a few things could happen. The Celtics currently have four players on non-guaranteed deals: Keith Bogans ($5,285,817), Phil Pressey ($816,482), Chris Babb ($816,382), and Chris Johnson ($915,243). That's a total of $7.8M. Bogans' sweetheart deal plus two out of three rookie contracts could theoretically be cobbled together (a total of around $7M which would satisfy the CBA's 125% + $100,000 matching requirement) to mirror Lin's $8,374,646 and later waived before they step foot in the Toyota Center. In a subsequent trade, Asik's $8M would fit into the Celtics' TPE. The combined effect for Houston would be a Carmelo-sized cap hole. The Celtics get their rim protector and a back up point guard with both on expiring contracts.

It gets a little more complicated if Jeff Green and Brandon Bass are involved or if Ainge insists on the inclusion of Chandler Parsons (who has his own pending free agency in flux), but the biggest player in a Celtics' deal this summer might be the TPE. With so many big name free agents potentially on the move, Boston could be the landing spot for teams looking to dump salary.

And keep this in mind: Houston isn't the only team that Danny could deal with. Asik is certainly at the top of the list of centers to target, but Ainge could swing a similar deal with Oklahoma City for fan favorite Kendrick Perkins, pick off the Jazz's underperforming Enes Kanter, or even snag Tiago Splitter from San Antonio if the Spurs decide to do a brick one rebuild.

It's hard to handicap the likelihood of something happening, especially considering the tight window that Ainge has to utilize the TPE. July 1st is the start of the NBA calendar year; free agents are technically free, holds and rookie scales are applied to teams' salary cap, and Bird rights are renounced. There's a moratorium on transactions that ends on the stroke of midnight on July 10th and the TPE expires on July 12th. Ainge will have two days to work his phone or he loses it.



bob
MY NOTE:  I was pretty surprised, to be honest, when I learned last summer that the trade exception was going to expire so early in the free agent signing period this year.  I didn't/cannot understand why Trader Danny didn't just drag his feet for a few days and give himself a few more days to wheel and deal this year.  We'll see how this pans out but $10.3M is beaucoup bucks when the salary cap is less than $60M and I have to believe there is at least one GM out there who needs to make some numbers fit in some trade and, if nothing else, sees the Celtics as a 3rd party in a deal to access some or all of our TPE and will compensate us for accommodating them.


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Rule 1: TPE's can be broken up into smaller pieces to get multiple players in separate trades.  The $10.3M TPE can be split in order to net two players at around $5M each (plus or minus) from different teams, for example.  (That is not what is happening in the above trade, I just wanted to explain one option with the TPE).

Rule 2: TPE's cannot be added to other player's salary to net a bigger fish.   The $10.3M TPE cannot be added to Bogans' $5.3M to get a player (or players) at around $15.6M (plus or minus), for example.  (That is also not what is happening in the above trade, I just wanted to explain a restriction with the TPE).

The second rule (no combining TPE with other assets) is the reason that the above scenario is being done in two separate transactions.  We trade the entire TPE for one player and then we trade multiple unguaranteed contracts for the other player.  Houston, we have no problem!

Except . . . we would end up with two players whose salaries add up to over $30M and both of them are on their last season of their contracts.  Either of them (or both) would be unrestricted free agents after one season with us.

IMO, Danny Ainge would not want to use up so many of his assets just to see the results vaporize after just one season.  Plus the salary cost is huge, the Celtics owners would have to sign off on this one.   Daryl Morey would have to throw him a bone or two to make this happen.  Chandler Parsons and/or a first round pick . . . something . . . needs to be added on order to make the risk pill go down easier.

gyso

Sam,

The risk is in the fact that they both would be unrestricted free agents after one season. I'm not all that worried that Lin will walk, the prize here is Asik. If we were able to draft Embiid and allow him to develop behind Asik, we would have two rim protectors. That sounds great, but Asik has shown that he wants to start and he might cop an attitude if he thought his status as a starter was threatened. He may not resign with us under that scenario.

The key asset is the $10.3M TPE. I think it would be a waste to spend that on a one year rental. It may be better to spend it on someone under contract for a longer period of time, like Sanders (or someone like him). He will just be entering his 4yr/$44M contract. Plenty of time there for Embiid to develop.

The TPE does have to be used within a couple of days after the moratorium, but I believe Danny can make deals on Draft Day. He can also discuss deals during the moratorium and just wait until it is over to pull the trigger.

I guess that I don't want Asik if he is only here for one year. I would like some measure of continuity going forward.

gyso

worcester wrote:I like sANDERS LONG TERM. wE STAND VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF LANDING eMBID.

worcester,


We have an 8.8% chance at the #1 pick, which could guarantee Embiid. Basically, 1 out of 12.

We have a 29.2% chance at a top 3 pick, 3 out of 10. If Embiid isn't picked first we're looking better.


bob


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worcester wrote:Embiid will be picked first.

worcester,

Draftexpress currently has him being picked 3rd, behind Wiggins and Parker.  Embiid's stress fracture of his back is causing some slippage.

Mynbadraft.com has him going 4th. Only nbadraft.net has him still going 1st.


bob


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