Summer Quandaries: State Of The Power Forward

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2014/09/sq14-57-celtics-state-of-power-forward.html










This is another State of the Celtics address that it is tempting to limit to one word--Fine!  However the truth is that despite having three solid power forwards, each of whom could start (and might well do so for at least some games), there are difficulties at the position.  

The biggest is the lack of separation.  Regardless of in what range you personally would rate them on a 1-100 scale, it might well be that there would be as few as 10 points between the highest and lowest.  Even with two rising and the other having reached his plateau, it creates rotation problems..  There are too few minutes to go around at PF and it serves neither the team nor any of the three players, well to play any of them out of position at center (nor can any but Bass be played, and even him only for limited minutes against power three‘s, at small forward.  

Bass has played admirably for the Celtics, and significantly improved his game in his time here, and yet his time has passed.  To give him significant minutes would only serve to retard the development of the youngsters who are the Celtics’ future.  To sit him on the bench is to invite the negative vibrations of a disgruntled vet.  If he is willing to sit quietly and remain ready to step in if injury strikes, then power forward becomes a real strength, second only perhaps to point guard on this team.  However, even if that were the case, it is a poor use of resources to keep a solid vet making nearly $7M as a deep backup.  Ideally that third stringer would be a rookie needing lots of development (think Noah Vonleh, and no, before you say it, I am not suggesting he should have been picked over Smart.)

Even if you relegate Bass to third string, there still aren’t enough minutes to adequately feed the development needs of both Sullinger and Olynyk.  Each of them should play 28-32 minutes a game if healthy.  With only 48 available at PF, one of them may need to put in a dozen or more minutes at center.  The problem is that Sullinger will never be tall enough to be right for that position and Olynyk got abused down low last year.  If Kelly has improved his strength enough this off-season, I see him playing that extra time at the five position.

Now the truth is that no team goes 82 games injury free.  That doesn’t mean that a power forward will get hurt, but it may well be that one or the other of the young guns will be limited enough in some games that the minutes crunch will be no big deal.  If Danny is fortunate enough to convert Bass into some better asset, and injury strikes, Green can slide up, or Faverani down, to fill in the missing PF minutes.  

Whether Bass is moved or not, I would (and neither Danny nor Brad has called asking me my opinion, go figure?) plan on Sully, Kelly, and, Zelly (that rolls so easily off the tongue) earning 30-32 mpg coming out of camp, with them dividing up the remaining six-ish big-man minutes if Faverani doesn’t make his case to be included for that short stack.  Of all the positions, the power forward has the closest thing to an embarrassment of riches going into this 2014 training camp.  Let’s see how it plays out.

Only 7 more days until training camp.





bob
MY NOTE:  Nope, no team goes 82 games without injury, that's why you have a bench.  We have the luxury, as Lee pointed out, of being able to go deep into our bench and still put a starting power forward on the floor.  There is no doubt in my mind that 4 is the strongest position on this roster.

If Zeller plays 28mpg, and that's 2mpg more than he played as a starting center in Cleveland in his rookie year, that leaves 20mpg at center.  Vitor is <100% and may play very limited minutes in November and, depending upon his rehab, even the first half of December.  Anthony could get some of those minutes but even if he and Vitor together play 15mpg in November that still leaves 5mpg for Kelly.

I don't understand people talking about Bass being able to play 3.  Has he ever played 3?  I don't think he has the footspeed, personally.

Yep, we have a logjam at PF.  That's why Danny tried to move Bass this summer.  Things will work out by February.



.

I've talked about some spot minutes for Bass at SF.  There's one reason why I do so...his good defensive stint agains a pretty fair country player named Lebron James.  I understand then is not now, and perhaps it was a fluke; but I think nothing is an official fluke until it's been tried a few times and doesn't work.  Anyway, I think it's just a matter of time until Handy Andy Bass gets traded—barring injuries at the position.

But one thing Lee didn't mention that is important is that Sully and Kelly have complementary talents.  I believe that, when Zeller's not on the floor and there are presumably second-stringers in for the opponent much of the time, the two of them could play together—with Sully at the low post and Kelly at the high post on offense.  In such instances, it's unimportant which of them has a "C" or "PF" next to his name; they're only initials.  Yes, defense could be a problem, but remember I said they'd probably be facing second-stringers.

If one divides the minutes at C and PF by three, one arrives at 32 minutes per player.  Obviously, it won't happen that neatly, and it's very unlikely all three will average more than 30 minutes this season.  But, if one thinks about a basic three-man rotation, with Sully and Kelly splitting the minutes alongside Zelly and sharing the minutes when Zelly's not on the floor, there would be plenty of opportunity to make spot substitutions (Bass or Faverani, anyone?) to save the "basic three" from exhaustion.

Sam

I think it will be interesting to see how Brad's minutes distribution goes.

I'm not quite sure how much time I'd have Sully-Kelly playing the post together. But there may not be much of a choice if guys get hurt.



KJ