Yet Another Perspective on a Rondo Trade

Here’s an article that appeared in the Boston Globe back on Nov. 8.  I don’t recall seeing it on the board, but I’ve been away for a while and I apologize if it’s redundant.  I’m not exactly if being a Boston native and seasoned sports writer nerd qualifies Jeremy Gottlieb as an expert on such matters.  In fact, my first impression is that he writes better than he thinks.  On one hand, it’s entirely possible that the Celtics would fare better with a do-everything floor general on the order of Chris Paul than with the more uni-dimensional Rondo.  And it’s equally possible that the Cavs would prosper with a pass-first floor general to galvanize the games of Lebron and Love.  And didn’t Lebron get into a tiff recently with Irving?
 
Questions:
 
• If the Celtics would be walking right into an Irving max contract, how would that be any different from paying Rondo whatever it takes to keep him?
 
• How would acquiring Irving for Rondo influence the systems that Brad might put into place?
 
• How would acquiring Irving for Rondo influence the way Danny might build for the future?
 
 
CELTICS BLOG
[size=57]Rondo for Kyrie? It May Be Worth a Chat[/size]
           
           
           
           
           

Jeremy Gottlieb          @jmg2776          Boston.com Staff             NOVEMBER 8, 2014 11:52 PM          ABOUT THE AUTHOR Jeremy Gottlieb is a Boston native and seasoned sports writer/nerd whose work has appeared in The Boston Globe, The Eagle-Tribune, The Metrowest Daily News and at BDCwire, SB Nation and Bleacher Report.

           

It’s Celtics’ season, which means it’s also Rajon Rondo trade rumor season. Well, it's always Rajon Rondo trade rumor season, but now that this NBA year is officially underway and the final year of Rondo’s contract has officially begun, the churning of the rumor mill will only grow stronger and louder until the Celts either re-sign him or deal him.
If you follow the Celtics even in the most cursory, superficial manner, you know that there’s no in between with Rondo. He’s either loved or hated and those who fall into the latter category are usually at the head of the line when it comes to pleas for Celtics’ basketball boss Danny Ainge to ship him out of town. It’s grown pretty tiresome and doesn’t even really make much sense considering that all the things the four-time All-Star point guard is especially good at – distributing the ball, creating good opportunities for others and making his teammates better, all without needing to shoot more than a handful of times per game – are all pretty precious commodities in today’s NBA.
But on the other hand, the Celtics aren’t very good these days. Why wouldn’t a guy is in the prime of his career and knows what it’s like to win a title and play for a contender take the opportunity to move on to a team closer to a ring? If that’s what Rondo wants to do and the Celtics know it, trying to get something in return for him makes perfect sense.
Plenty of folks have an opinion on the subject. Even those who you wouldn't exactly expect to provide any input publicly.

Tracy McGrady        
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Bron, go get Rondo out of Boston!
2:11 PM - 6 Nov 2014
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That’s former NBA superstar Tracy McGrady weighing in. Presumably, the tweet was sent not only because of the incessant rumors swirling around Rondo. Just a little over a week into the season, there’s already been some ripples in the force formed in Cleveland when LeBron James joined up with young point guard and former No. 1 overall pick Kyrie Irving. Irving, who has never once in his young basketball life been anything but the dude with the ball at all times, seems to be struggling with the fact that on this particular team, with that particular superstar alongside, he is no longer The Man.
Irving made news this week for scoring 34 points in a loss without recording a single assist over 45 minutes played. That’s pretty tough to do when you’re, you know, the point guard. So it’s probably not a coincidence that the day after that performance, which was followed by some not very happy postgame comments from LeBron himself, T-Mac sent his tweet.
Now before we go any further, let’s get this out of the way: I do not want the Celtics to trade Rondo and don’t believe they should. With the right kind of players around him, he’s capable of being a transcendent talent. And even though he’s a little bit older now and is coming off a major knee injury, he’s still in the prime of his career. To me, the Celtics’ best move is to do everything they can to re-sign him and use the combination of trade-worthy assets and salary cap room they will have next summer to bring in an appropriate supporting cast.
If that proves to be an impossible strategy, or if the Celtics decide they want to go in a completely different direction, you can bet the house that trying to peddle Rondo to Cleveland in exchange for Irving is a fantastic idea for all involved and should be pursued vigorously.
Think about it for a minute. Everybody wins. The Celtics get an absolute blue chipper, the kind of go-to guy they haven’t had since Paul Pierce left town, who has already been an All-Star game MVP at the tender age of 22.
In return, the Cavs get a pass first, defensive-minded point guard who would be fine taking about zero shots per game if need be. Can you imagine Rondo running a 3-on-2 with LeBron on one wing and Kevin Love on the other? It makes my head feel kind of explode-y just thinking about it. He’d average 20 dimes per game. And chances are no one in Cleveland would ever accuse him of being selfish for looking to rack up assists (hands down the most patently ridiculous “criticism” of Rondo ever uttered).
Given the current mindsets and timetables of both teams, it just feels like the right fit. Sure, the Cavs would be giving up the enormous upside that comes with Irving. But their chances of seriously contending immediately increase in a big way with Rondo in the fold. As presently constituted, they’re not even a lock to get out of the Eastern Conference, especially if the Bulls’ Derrick Rose ever gets healthy. And don’t forget, part of what propelled LeBron’s last superteam, the Miami Heat, into the Finals in his first year there was the presence of Dwyane Wade, a star who knew how to win already. Rondo is not on the level Wade was back then, but he’s got championship experience. Irving most decidedly does not, which he hilariously reminded us during a game last week.
 
The Celtics are nowhere near contending. As great as Rondo is, the best that he and his current teammates can do is maybe, possibly sneak into the playoffs thanks to the general suckiness of the East. A player like Irving, who is still developing, fits the profile of the Celtics both right now and for the foreseeable future.
It wouldn’t be easy. Eric Pincus over at Basketball Insiders did all the convoluted salary cap math. Because the max contract already bestowed on Irving doesn’t kick in until next season, there’s no way the deal could be a one-for-one swap. Evans Clinchy of Celtics Blog, Blazers Edge, and Hardwood Paroxysm ran some ideas through the ESPN Trade Machine, determining that a couple more players would need to be included. And you’d have to think that even if it weren't necessary for financial reasons, the Cavs would likely ask for a little more than just Rondo for an asset with all the trimmings of Irving.
Things are a little bit different now than they were when McGrady gave us all his opinion. The Cavs won on Friday night with Irving taking just 11 shots and dishing out six assists. The Celtics lost rookie point guard Marcus Smart to a high ankle sprain that they say will keep him out of action at least two weeks (don’t be surprised if it’s more like four or five). And while Smart’s injury isn’t likely to affect the Celtics’ long range plans, the fact that he was even drafted in the first place gives the team a built-in insurance policy should Rondo get dealt.
Who knows? The Celtics and Rondo have said all the right things about his impending free agency and the prospect of a trade. And to repeat, the ideal scenario for me and plenty of other Celtics’ observers is that they keep him.
But for Kyrie Irving?
It’s worth a chat.
Email Jeremy at jeremy.gottlieb@globe.com and follow him on Twitter @jmg2776.

http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/extras/celtics_blog/2014/11/rondo_for_kyrie_it_may_be_worth_a_chat.html

I did read this before, though not sure if it was here or not.

I would jump all over getting Irving for Rondo myself, but I am most likely in the minority among Celtic fans.

Irving is 6 years younger, hits 38% from 3 and 86% form the line for his career. Irving is signed for LESS than MAX money for 5 years after this one.


I think in todays NBA Rondo's shooting is too big a liability, UNLESS you have a real NUMBER ONE guy who wants the shot with the game on the line. Cleveland has Lebron of course, so they work.

As I've said before, if you're going to pay MAX money to a guy, he HAS to be able to be a NUMBER ONE with the game on the line and be able to WANT and MAKE the shots needed.


a Rondo and draft pick(s) for Irving and Thompson should work salary wise. NOt sure Cleveland would be willing to make that offer however.

if Cleveland throws in Thompson to make the salary's match (no sending back anything more than Fav and a draft pick or two maybe). then Ainge would have to at least THINK about it hard, IMO.

kdp,

Your comment about salary terms contradicts the writer, who says: "Because the max contract already bestowed on Irving doesn’t kick in until next season, there’s no way the deal could be a one-for-one swap."


Basketball Reference shows Irving's salaries starting next season as:


2015-16 $14,746,000
2016-17 $15,851,950
2017-18 $16,957,900
2018-19 $18,063,850
2019-20 $19,169,800 I believe that's a qualifying offer)


I don't know what a max offer would be in Irving's case.


Sam

yes, I checked our Irvings salary #'s.

that's why I said an Irving AND Thompson (last year of deal) for Rondo and future draft picks , should work salary and cap wise in a trade. (I'd throw in fav or Pressey if need be as we would be over the 15 player limit anyway).

when I say MAX deal I am thinking in the $18-20M range, which is what has been talked about as a deal required to keep Rondo . I doubt that Rondo will get ANY offers at that level however, myself and see him more in the $14-16M range per year. But I guess with the new TV money, it's hard to say what the NEW MAX delas will look like.


I do like Rondo and think he can or will be a starting point on a championship team again. But I simply don't think he CAN be and also be the top paid player on the team. I do think his shooting flaws are that much of a problem.

IF he'll stay for the $14-16M range on his next long term deal, fine with me. If I could get Irving for him, I would do it in a heartbeat as I feel Irving will be the better player over the nest 4-6 years.

Sam

I would not make this trade.

Irving is a scorer and I do not think we are in need of a scorer plus if i was looking for a scorer I would not be looking for a 6' 3" hybrid PG that does not like to pass the ball to his teammates.

There are maybe two PG's that I would trade Rondo for and neither one of them is named Irving (Chris Paul, Curry) And even having said that the issue for the Celtics is not rajon rondo. And I am not worrying about max contracts. Let DA worry about that.

By the way during the first 3 QTRs of the Cleveland game the Celtics played amazing
basketball. Terrific pace as they were goign back and forth and even fast breaking on made baskets.

dboss

KDP,

My only problem with a Rondo for Irving trade is that Kyrie is more of an undersized 2 than a true point guard, much in the same vein as Russell Westbrook. He's very shot-happy much of the time, and I feel that could go a long way in disrupting team chemistry.

Rondo's Achilles heel is his shooting, and he'll never be the offensive player that Irving is, however, he contributes just as much to an offense if not more. His points + assists will roughly account for around 40 points, not bad when you consider the fact that there's no All-Stars besides him on this team.

I would also rather see how this team gels first.


KJ

Sam,

I join you in many of your concerns with Rondo as the Celtics leader, best player and captain.

He is certainly a very good NBA player and even better than excellent on some nights. But, he has far too many flaws to be able to adequately fill the role of the player he needs to be on (at least) this year's team, and he is likely not going to be able to be what he will need to be on next year's team either no matter what his contract value will be if he does resign with Boston.

I am sure that most everyone who reads and offers opinions on this great forum has played basketball at some level whether if be school ball, college ball, maybe even some form of professional ball or maybe just some Boys Club or YMCA ball, but everyone can remember that one guy that made his team win games at whatever level he may have played at.

Sometimes, the go-to leader/winner guy is the best athlete on the team but sometimes the winner guy is only one of the team's better players. But, if your team is going to win night in and night out you have to HAVE to have this guy.

He is the guy who holds everything together. He is the guy that all the other guys look to for guidance, leadership, hustle, focus, skills (at least no glaring weaknesses), etc, etc when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter. He is the guy who just cannot be taken out of a close game no matter how tired, winded or fatigued that he may be. This guy, in my opinion, actually becomes more important than the coach when the game is on the line because we all know that the other players look right to him when the chips are on the line and only 'listen' to the coaches. We all remember these guys on our teams. Some posters and readers may have well been 'this guy'.

I am just not sure that Rondo is this guy for the Celtics as they currently exist, and this does not take away from his nearly triple double stat lines or his past performances with guys such as Pierce, Allen and Garnett. Rondo is a very talented player, but I just do not see him as THE MAN no matter what his salary is.

He does not always play the best defense as opponents beat him on a regular basis, he is still the guy you have to send to the far corner of the floor when free throws might be needed late in a game, he really cannot create his own shot, he often seems to forget the offensive approach of the pace Stevens wants late in games (even after seeing it work for long periods of time in a particular game) and it really does not look like the other players really have the utmost of confidence in him being their leader at the end of games. I do admit that this last aspect is a very tough call when I only get to watch the games on TV.

Rondo is very talented, gets paid very well (and even is likely to get more in his next contract), produces good stat lines almost every night, is very intelligent, competitive, BUT??????

Clyde,

The onus certainly should not be placed squarely on Rondo.  He has plenty of comrades when it comes to making mistakes in games.  But let's say we were all asked to estimate the amount of effort each of this season's Celtics is expending on maximizing his potential to help this team.  Maybe on a 0-10 scale.  Where would you place Rondo versus his teammates?  I'd have Rondo below even Gerald Wallace, who seldom plays but who works like crazy to make a solid impact when he does play.

I understand that Rondo is still recovering from injury and may still be hurting.  But that doesn't account for a mental lapse or an apparent reluctance to follow his coach's orders (although I did think Rondo pushed the ball better in the most recent game than previously).

I've always enjoyed the parable about the man by the side of the road who was desperately pushing and tugging in a vain effort to get his balky mule to move.  A stranger happened by, saw what was happening, and said, "I can make him move immediately." "Go ahead and try," said the mule's owner.  Whereupon the stranger picked up a nearby two-by-four and slammed the mule right between the eyes.  And the mule started walking.  "Sometimes," said the stranger, "you just have to get their attention."

I'm not advocating physical violence against Rondo, especially since he's one tough guy.  But I surely do wish I could feel he's really paying attention where attention is needed.

Sam

k_j_88 wrote:KDP,

My only problem with a Rondo for Irving trade is that Kyrie is more of an undersized 2 than a true point guard, much in the same vein as Russell Westbrook. He's very shot-happy much of the time, and I feel that could go a long way in disrupting team chemistry.

Rondo's Achilles heel is his shooting, and he'll never be the offensive player that Irving is, however, he contributes just as much to an offense if not more. His points + assists will roughly account for around 40 points, not bad when you consider the fact that there's no All-Stars besides him on this team.

I would also rather see how this team gels first.


KJ

sorry KJ I didn't see your post earlier. I don't disagree that waiting IF Ainge trades Rondo is the best idea, but I was just saying that IF the Irving deal came up from Cleveland I would do it.

as for the comparisons about how many points each contribute, I did a bit of research here:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rondora01.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/irvinky01.html

and over the past 4 years (which includes Irving's rookie year)

Irving has averaged 20.8 pt and 5.8 Ast per game= 32.4pt

Rondo has averaged 12.3 pt and 11.1 Ast per game= 34.5 pt


I do think Irving would be a nice fit in Stevens system as well.

but I also don't see Cleveland moving Irving.

Sam,

I am not putting all of the burden or Rondo because he is Rondo, but rather because he happens to have the position on this year's team as its leader/captain/go to guy.

When Bird played he was the go to man when the chips were down even though he had a much higher level of quality players on his team than Rondo does. Magic Johnson was the go to guy on the Lakers when they had even Kareem Abdul Jabbar (and others). You get my point. Rondo needs to be that guy right now for the Celtics, but I do not see him filling that roll for all the reasons I mentioned yesterday.

I did very much like your charting idea to determine which player works the hardest to achieve team success. I would have to agree with you in that Rondo may not be at the top of the list which only reinforces my thoughts from yesterday.

I do not know enough about Kyrie Irving to determine where he may line up on your chart, but I would take my chances and trade Rondo to get him.

sam wrote:Clyde,

The onus certainly should not be placed squarely on Rondo.  He has plenty of comrades when it comes to making mistakes in games.  But let's say we were all asked to estimate the amount of effort each of this season's Celtics is expending on maximizing his potential to help this team.  Maybe on a 0-10 scale.  Where would you place Rondo versus his teammates?  I'd have Rondo below even Gerald Wallace, who seldom plays but who works like crazy to make a solid impact when he does play.

I understand that Rondo is still recovering from injury and may still be hurting.  But that doesn't account for a mental lapse or an apparent reluctance to follow his coach's orders (although I did think Rondo pushed the ball better in the most recent game than previously).

I've always enjoyed the parable about the man by the side of the road who was desperately pushing and tugging in a vain effort to get his balky mule to move.  A stranger happened by, saw what was happening, and said, "I can make him move immediately." "Go ahead and try," said the mule's owner.  Whereupon the stranger picked up a nearby two-by-four and slammed the mule right between the eyes.  And the mule started walking.  "Sometimes," said the stranger, "you just have to get their attention."

I'm not advocating physical violence against Rondo, especially since he's one tough guy.  But I surely do wish I could feel he's really paying attention where attention is needed.

Sam

I am not sure I understand what you mean here Sam.

while i feel that the Celtics COULD be a better team by trading Rondo myself, I do not doubt his effort or desire in any way. For me its just the oppostie, I fele that Rondo MAXIMIZES his talent. The problem I have is his inablility to ever be a elite shooter, or frankly an AVERAGE shooter from the FT or 3 pt line ( for a point guard). I think they are flaws in his game that IF he could fix them he would have by now to move into that elite/ MAX contract player level.

Would Rondo thrive with Lebron and Love on the same team, I think so. But you would also see Lebron with the ball in his hands any time a key shot is needed and at the end of close games, not Rondo.

I WISH Rondo had developed an average shot from the 3 and from the line, but it's most likely not going to happen.....if not , then he can't be paid MAX money.

kdp,

I guess, in plain language, I was saying that Rondo has had too many instances of compromising his talent with a refusal to use that talent to best advantage.  Particularly in pushing the ball, especially toward the end of games.  But I did credit Rondo with doing a much more consistent job of pushing the ball throughout the entire last night.  Here's hoping he can continue doing that.

Sam