MAGIC 9-BALL: RAJON RONDO TRADE BAROMETER V4.0

WEEI

By Ben Rohrbach

Let’s face it: This is the season of Rajon Rondo. As interesting as it is to evaluate the frontcourt progress of Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley‘s offensive potential and Jeff Green‘s surprising consistency, the biggest questions the Celtics must answer all involve Rondo. Just how good is he? Will he be traded? What can they get in return? In a weekly feature on Green Street, we’ll take stock of the Celtics captain’s status every Tuesday.

RAJON RONDO TRADE VALUE

Either Rondo hasn’t fully recovered from the knee injury he suffered nearly two years ago or he’s no longer capable of carrying the Celtics offense the way he once did during four straight trips to the NBA All-Star Game from 2009-13.

We may have to accept one or the other as fact.

Rondo’s 32.1 minutes per game are the lowest of his career since former Celtics coach Doc Rivers handed him the keys to the duck boat during the 2008 playoff run, and he’s been atrocious in back-to-back performances this fall after sitting out those games last season. The Celtics have played three back-to-backs this year, and here are the point guard’s performances in those contests.

Celtics 106, Bulls 101: DNP. The Celtics opted to keep Rondo home in order to remove screws from his surgically repaired left hand.
Celtics 109, Pistons 102 (OT): 34 min, 2 pts (1-6 FG, 0-1 3P), 8 ast (4 to), 3 reb, 3 stl. At the end of regulation and for portions of overtime, the C’s deliberately kept the ball out of Rondo’s hands, even benching him for a stretch in favor of Evan Turner, a superior free throw shooter.
Wizards 133, Celtics 132 (2OT): 21 min, 0 pts (0-3 FG), 4 ast (3 to), 2 reb, 1 stl. Rondo did not return once Marcus Smart replaced him with 5:20 remaining in the third quarter and the Celtics trailing by 20.
As you can see, the C’s finished 2-1 in those games, only losing to the Southeast Division-leading Wizards in double overtime. Any way you slice it, there’s been a stark contrast between rested Rondo and fatigued Rondo.


0 days rest (2 games): 27.5 min, 1.0 pts (11.1 true shooting percentage), 6.0 ast (3.5 to), 2.5 reb, 2.0 stl
1+ days rest (15 games): 32.9 min, 9.0 pts (40.6 TS%), 11.4 ast (3.4 to), 8.1 reb, 1.6 stl
When rested this season, his averages per 36 minutes are comparable, if not superior, to his All-Star campaigns, except for the simple fact he no longer plays 36 minutes per game. Stevens has severely limited Rondo’s minutes, opting to sit him for long stretches, in an admitted attempt to increase his point guard’s effectiveness over shorter seven-minute stints.

2009-13 (240 games): 37.0 min, 12.1 pts (51.2 TS%), 10.5 ast (3.3 to), 4.6 reb, 2.1 stl
Following last week’s overtime loss to the Pistons, Rondo conceded, “I’€™ve not been myself. I haven’€™t been as aggressive. I haven’€™t been making shots. I’€™ve been turning the ball over.” The biggest difference between Rondo before his knee surgery and the player who returned for the final 30 games of last season was the absence of an explosiveness that allowed him to get to the paint — even he’ll give you that much — and it’s a legitimate question to ask whether that’s limiting him now.

While Rondo is still capable of sublime performances — as evidenced by his combined 27 assists, 25 points and 21 rebounds in wins over Kobe Bryant‘s Lakers and Paul Pierce‘s Wizards — any trade partner has to be concerned about his ability to withstand an 82-game season and a potential playoff run. After all, 36 guards currently average more minutes than Rondo.

Value: Descending


It’s time now to ask the Magic 9-Ball.

RAJON RONDO TRADE IDEA

For a deal that shouldn’t make any sense at all, a trade between the Celtics and Lakers involving Rondo makes all the sense in the world from an L.A. standpoint.

Somewhat hamstrung by Bryant’s $25 million price tag and in serious danger of becoming irrelevant, the Lakers are desperate to squeeze everything they can out of the final few years of the former NBA MVP’s career.

You can be sure Bryant would push for the trade, and not just because he shared breakfast with Rondo, although their relationship certainly doesn’t hurt. Kobe can sell L.A.’s financial commitment to its stars, Rondo could get the hefty contract he’ll command and their shoot-first/pass-first mentalities pair all too well.

But could the Celtics pull the trigger? In order to send his captain to the Lakers, C’s president Danny Ainge would have to be blown away by a deal, and I’m not sure a package of Julius Randle and Steve Nash‘s $9.7 million expiring contract is that deal. For starters, the Celtics weren’t sold on Randle this past summer. He also suffered a season-ending injury in the first game of his NBA career and plays the same position as Jared Sullinger.

Since their own 2015 first-round pick is tied up in top-five protection as a result of the Nash deal two years ago, the Lakers could really only sweeten the pot with Houston’s lottery protected No. 1 pick in June. That’s not all that enticing, either.

Idea: Not great

RAJON RONDO TRADE ODDS

Anybody who watched the fourth quarter and both overtimes in Monday’s loss to the Wizards had to leave wondering how the Celtics manufacture more minutes for Smart. Showing no ill effects from his ankle injury, the rookie’s energy changed the tide, anchoring what may have been the most impressive stretch of basketball the Celtics have played all season.

Playing all but 12 seconds over the final 27:20, Smart finished with 23 points (7-14 FG, 4-8 3P, 5-5 FT), five assists against zero turnovers, four rebounds and a pair of steals in 35 minutes off the bench. For the record, Rondo has not scored 23 points since playing 40 minutes against the Knicks on Jan. 24, 2013, the night before his ACL injury.

It may not have been a changing of the guard, but it was almost certainly a preview of what could eventually be.

The Celtics have won seven games in 19 tries this season, and an argument could be made Rondo was the difference-maker in only two of them — the previously mentioned motivated wins over Kobe’s Lakers and Pierce’s Wizards. In his past four games, he’s been benched at the end of two close contests for his inability to shoot free throws and a lack of energy.

Over the next two months before the NBA trade deadline, Ainge must continue weighing the value a 28-year-old post-surgery Rondo brings as a one-of-a-kind player on some nights against a 20-year-old Smart’s ability to impact games on both ends of the floor. And like it or not the scales might be tipping in one direction.

Odds: 20-1

112288

In other words, despite the suspicions that will be aroused by Rondo's exclusion from most of the second half against the Wizards, there's nothing new on the Rondo front.

Sam

The whole trade-Rondo-to-LA thing is the worst kind of media speculation.  It is driven by one of the biggest media markets in the world, and possessor of one of the elite franchises in the NBA, having a shitty team.  It's the same crap that fueled the Rondo-to-Knicks rumors last year.  Big media market, terrible team, desperate fans.  The Lakers have nothing we want.  If we wanted Randle we could already have him.  We picked ahead of the Lakers, remember?  We passed on Randle in favor of Smart.  Besides, we're good with 4s now and don't need Randle now anymore than we did last summer.  Nash's expiring contract?  Unless Danny has a free agent in mind, why does he need the cap space now?  What Danny wants is the addition of a quality veteran player. The only thing LA has going that might be of interest is their #1 pick, because they suck, and I think that might not be theirs to give away anyway.

It's one thing for LA writers to write this drivel, it's their beat and they need to give Laker Nation reason to step back from the ledge, but Rohrbach?


bob



.

It is probably not wise to annoint Smart the new point guard after only one superior game, but Rondo is likely to leave after the season with the Celtics only getting his salary cap space in return.  

More than in any of the other professional sports, never discount the possibility of a three team trade.

Randle and the Lakers picks may be more meaningful to other teams than it would appear that they would be to the Celtics at this time.  

Lopez to Boston with possibly one of the Lakers picks, Randle, Nash and a Laker pick to Brooklyn and Rondo to the Lakers.  Salaries are somewhat close, Boston gets something back for Rondo, Brooklyn breaks up their negative situation that has been written about (at least to some extent), gets one of the Lakers picks and takes a flyer on an injured Randle.

Is it true that, if the Celtics somehow wind up with Brook Lopez, they're also planning to buy a controlling interest in Johnson & Johnson's Bandage Division?  They just want to hedge their bets.

maybe ROBIN Lopez......but not the brother with the bad wheels, sorry.

the only person on the LAL roster that could help the Celtics is Jordan Hill, and his $9M per year this and next makes him WAY overpaid.

NEXT.

I wanted to start a poll about this, but but there was a lot of resistance to the last one, so I'll just ask my question here.

What really good, legitimate center who (1) might be available in return for Rondo and draft picks by the trading deadline (considering the current needs of the center's team) and (2) would be the defensive and rebounding mainstay most of us think the Celtics need in the middle?  Please assume that (1) any monetary discrepancies between the two contracts could somehow be alleviated and (2) as many draft picks as you choose could be included in the Celtics' package.

All responses gratefully received.

Sam

kdp59 wrote:maybe ROBIN Lopez......but not the brother with the bad wheels, sorry.

the only person on the LAL roster that could help the Celtics is Jordan Hill, and his $9M per year this and next makes him WAY overpaid.

NEXT.

Agree.  You're 2 for 2 here IMO.

Hill is a pretty decent PF-C, so far he looks like a '14-'15 MIP candidate (probably a much better fit for most teams as a PF, too).  But at $9 mil a year?  I hope he bought his agent a nice car.  Preferably something Italian, mid-engined and red, if you know what I mean.

sam wrote:I wanted to start a poll about this, but but there was a lot of resistance to the last one, so I'll just ask my question here.

What really good, legitimate center who (1) might be available in return for Rondo and draft picks by the trading deadline (considering the current needs of the center's team) and (2) would be the defensive and rebounding mainstay most of us think the Celtics need in the middle?  Please assume that (1) any monetary discrepancies between the two contracts could somehow be alleviated and (2) as many draft picks as you choose could be included in the Celtics' package.

All responses gratefully received.

Sam

I think we could use more definitive parameters for the question.

For example how many points per game would we like to see, rebounds, blocks or other intangibles,  

How many productive years at center would we like to see?

Is this another trade Rondo thread?  Do we have other assets other than Rondo that can be traded to get a center?  

dboss

Dboss,

I guess this is another thread about the possibility of trading Rondo.  Isn't that what the title of the thread specifies?  Yes, there are many things to consider in trying to target a viable center.  But, rather than just stating that obvious fact, I'm hoping people will take into consideration whatever factors they wish and then answer the question.  One of my concerns is that, although most of us are hungering for an intimidating center, it's not all that easy to list candidates who would be both qualified and available.  That's what my question is all about.


Sam

sam wrote:I wanted to start a poll about this, but but there was a lot of resistance to the last one, so I'll just ask my question here.

What really good, legitimate center who (1) might be available in return for Rondo and draft picks by the trading deadline (considering the current needs of the center's team) and (2) would be the defensive and rebounding mainstay most of us think the Celtics need in the middle?  Please assume that (1) any monetary discrepancies between the two contracts could somehow be alleviated and (2) as many draft picks as you choose could be included in the Celtics' package.

All responses gratefully received.

I can't think of any scenario that satisfies all of bolded requirements. The guys who fit the bill as a legitimate defensive and rebounding center either aren't going anywhere (other teams understand the value of those guys, too) or, as in the case of Gorgui Dieng at Minnesota or the Plumlee brothers (all of whom are at the lower end of "acceptable" as a defensive and rebounding center), they already have a point guard and Rondo would be a redundancy.

I already said the guy I think is a perfect fit for us is G. Dieng- Minn.

Sullinger and Dieng are an even up salary trade.

Minny want to dump Pekovic reportedly, so they can KEEP Dieng though.

too bad, he's just what this team needs moving forward...25YO defensive minded center with size, who can block shots, rebound and even shoot some inside.

but you asked for one we could get in a trade, so .....never mind.

Perfect answer, kdp.  From everything I've heard, Dieng is filled with potential to be just what the Celtics need.  His availability could be a matter of conjecture; but any club that has two centers could potentially be persuaded to part with one of them for the right package.  Depending on how the Wolves view the long-term status of Ricky Rubio, it could be that Jared Sullinger would be a more viable tracing chip for a center from the Wolves than Rondo would be.  Sully is about the same height but much heavier than Thaddeus Young; Sully has the advantage in points and rebounds per minute.  I'm not sure the differentials between the two would be substantial enough for Minny to prefer Sully.

The distinct feeling I get from all the threads on Rondo is that the board is highly in favor of retaining him if possible because he's regarded as the best ball distributor the Celts could ever hope for on a developing squad.  Sounds logical to me.

Sam