Has Brad Stevens Turned Around Evan Turner?

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/03/10/has-brad-stevens-turned-around-evan-turner/



Has Brad Stevens Turned Around Evan Turner?
Posted on March 10, 2015 by Andrew Johnson






Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports


This off season the Celtics added former-number-two-overall-pick-turned-NBA-disappointment Evan Turner in what was termed a low risk/high reward move. In actuality, Turner’s age and four year record in the league with two different teams argued for it being a low risk/medium reward move at best.

At the time I broke down the signing here at Nylon in a piece called So, Evan Turner, that doesn’t need much updating.

Last Thursday morning, it was rumored that the Celtics were about to add another reclamation project signing Javale McGee to a two year deal, which ultimately fell through due an inability to agree on the second-year option.

In the meantime, the rumor ignited a bit of a debate about the extent of any actual reclamation that has occurred with Turner this season is a proxy for Celtics Coach Brad Steven’s ability to get the best out of his players. In a sense, the argument is pretty silly, a sample size of one player at a different position with a different history is never going to be a reliable indicator for the next player, but, whatever, twitter gonna twitter. But as a data point on its own, it’s an interesting enough question—Has Stevens turned around Evan Turner?

No, not really. The quick and dirty way to see this is to look at the one number metrics, and they generally agree, there’s been no significant improvement.





Of course, those metrics do not tell us everything. But their broad agreement about Turner’s lack of  improvement is damning.

The more fine-grained numbers tell a similar story as well. For example, Turner’s scoring to date this year is his least efficient since coming into the league, with a true shooting percentage of 46.9 percent.

Of course, no one should think that a head coach can magically fix a player’s jumper, but putting a player in a position to succeed and encouraging them to shoot from more efficient locations may conceivably improve overall efficiency. Turner has always been a slasher with a limited outside shot. But as I noted with his initial acquisition by the Celtics, Turner too often settles for the pull up jumper rather than forcing the issue to the basket, a habit that remains the same with Turner averaging roughly the same number of pull-up jump shots per minute played this year as he did in Philadelphia last year1.




According to Basketball-Reference, Turner’s shots at the basket have stalled out as a percentage of his attempts after peaking last year, and consequently his free throw rate has dropped as well from last year’s high. That failure to maintain or increase free throw rate is probably the biggest detriment to any attempt to improve a slashing player like Turner’s efficiency. On the plus-side, while the efficiency hasn’t improved, the volume of scoring attempts has fallen.

Though Turner’s general efficiency has remained the same, he has changed his role with the Celtics mostly out of necessity. After the Rajon Rondo trade the Celtics were left without enough ball-handling on the team, leaving Turner the one eyed king in terms of driving the ball to the basket.  Consequently, Turner has recorded his highest assist percentage to date, and highest turnover percentage. And Turner does have a marginally better assist to turnover ratio at 2.1 compared to his career numbers.

I would also say that Turner’s defensive effort looks better at this point in the season than it did at the start of the year, with Turner playing more physically and getting lost off the ball less noticeably. The defensive metrics, such as we have are inconclusive though—his steal percentage is at a career high, his block numbers, generally a less important number for perimeter players, is within his general career range.

Stevens received a good deal of credit, especially among Celtics fans, for turning Jordan Crawford into a net positive trade asset, and Crawford did appear to play somewhat more efficiently in Boston compared to other NBA stops. MarShon Brooks did not fair nearly as well, though recognizing where to invest playing time and development is probably the most important coaching skill. This year Stevens has been able to put Isaiah Thomas, Jonas Jerebko, Tyler Zeller and Jae Crowder in positions to maximize their skills, though none has been transformed as players. Equally notable, neither Rajon Rondo or Jeff Green have noticeably improved moving on to different coaches this year.

The Javale reclamation was scrubbed at the bargaining table, a good thing for the Celtics as McGee with a team option is an asset no matter how the experiment works out, while McGee with a player option is much more likely to be a liability. Stevens appears to be a good coach managing a tough situation with high roster turnover, but, overall there is little evidence of Stevens being able pull a miracle turn around with Turner. And Celtics fans should not hang their hat on that too much the next time Celtics GM Danny Ainge tries to go bargain shopping.

Now Gigi Datome, on the the other hand….



bob



.

Turner has had a very difficult role on this team.  For the most part, he has been cast as de factor, el defaulto floor general.  And sometimes he has struggled in that role, both with decision-making and execution, with the result that his turnovers can sometimes be irritating.  However, his turnovers per minute are less than those of Rajon Rondo, and both players have about the same 2-to-1 assist-turnover ratio.

I'm always wary when I see a "1" evaluated primarily on his shooting.  It always bothered me in the case of Rondo.  It's true that, not only is he only shooting 30% on threes, but Evan is shooting at a 42% clip on twos.  In the absence of advanced stats that I'm not willing to wade through, my observation is that his finishes at the hoop are pretty good but his Achilles' heel on two-point shots is the mid-range jumper.

I'm not trying to find excuses for Evan, just reasons.  I believe that playing the "1" position puts him in different situations and positions on the floor than shooting guards.  And, while they aren't expecting Evan to be a Rondo in terms of playmaking, who else other than the "1" has greater responsibility for enabling his teammates?  While many people criticize Turner for taking bad shots, I would submit that the shots he gets in a primarily playmaking role aren't as advantageous as a typical shooting guard would have.

Where I net out on this is that Brad sees something that convinces him to keep Turner as his starting floor general.  It's not ideal, either for the Celtics or for Evan, as I believe his most natural position is SG.  But he has undeniably been a part of the team's resurgence, and not the least of his contributions has been surprisingly good defense. I think it was Carmelo Anthony on whom Evan did a shockingly good defensive job recently.

Last year, many Celtics were playing out of position on a regular basis.  This season, I think it boils down pretty much to Evan and Bass.  Of the two, Bass is rising to the occasion with a resounding bang, while (as I said) Evan is struggling a bit.  

I believe the starting unit, which has been in and out in terms of scoring efficiency, would fare better with a bona fide "1" at the position.  And, aside from Pressey, the closest the Celts may have to a bona fide "1" is arguably Isaiah Thomas.  My guess is that, if Brad were to start Thomas and relegate Turner to the bench, the output of the bench would immediately go to hell in a handbasket.  The current arrangement may be the optimal one for the remainder of this season.

But I have great confidence that Danny will make one or more summer moves to fortify the "1" position with at least one true floor general.  And then we'll see what happens next season.

Sam