Is The Celtics' Recent Success Sabotaging The Rebuild?

Is the Celtics' recent success sabotaging the rebuild?
By Jeff Clark  @celticsblog on Mar 31, 2015, 3:36p 77






Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Maybe, but I'll take winning any day.




Stop me when you've heard this narrative before.  The Celtics are winning too much because it hurts their draft position (you've already yelled "stop!" haven't you?).  This, however, is not a "tanking" debate article.  That ship sailed and took all the eye rolling debates with it out into the deep Atlantic ocean (where the Sixers are drifting listlessly).

The Celtics incredibly got better when they traded away their two highest skilled players.  Yes, they got the dynamic Isaiah Thomas at the deadline, but they also maintained their success with him sidelined.  Credit for that goes to Brad Stevens who is living up to all the hype he had entering the league (and then some).

But that success has indeed taken the Celtics out of high lottery land where we might be able to secure a top tier talent in the draft.  There are other paths to getting those kinds of stars and other models to follow (Warriors, Hawks) but as Zach Lowe details in his long article on the Celtics, the top 5 pick is usually the best way.

A Playoff Problem: If the Celtics Are Trying to Rebuild, Then Why the Postseason Push?

Boston has to navigate its path without the best team-building tool available: a top-five pick. Heck, the Hawks are nowhere today without Al Horford — the no. 3 pick in 2007. This season’s Celtics are a nice story, and Ainge has amassed an arsenal of picks. But big-time success is never a sure thing. Boston’s front office has run circles around the Lakers, Knicks, Nets, and other teams with big dreams, but that doesn’t guarantee a way out of the middle class.

I find it hard to argue with that logic but I also find it hard to fault Danny Ainge in any of the moves he's made recently, including trading for Isaiah Thomas.  I would love to have a top 5 draft pick but they don't grow on trees.  Maybe Stevens and Thomas and our lovable new-age Ubuntu warriors are costing us that chance.  But even a top 5 pick is no guarantee of success.

That's what all of this really boils down to.  Varying degrees of risks and opportunities.  You increase your chances of success with a top pick but it isn't sure fire.  You can get stars lower in the draft, but it is rare.  You can trade for stars but you need the stars to align properly to make that happen.  You might even be able to gather the perfect storm of overachievers who are greater than the sum of their parts, but history has always favored the superstars.

Bottom line in all of this is that the Celtics need to be both lucky and good.  I have a high degree of confidence in Danny Ainge to maximize his opportunities and assets but he's going to have to take some gambles.  Some of them will work out and some will not (and we'll be happy to debate each one endlessly on this blog).

I still believe that there's an intrinsic value in teaching the guys that we have right now how to win consistently.  Even if some of those guys will move on this summer.  Winning breeds winning and Stevens is building a culture in Boston that everyone around the league can see.

The ultimate fear is that we get stuck in a cycle of being too good to get a star but not good enough to contend for a title.  That's always a danger, but I think you can overcome that with the right infrastructure.  The Celtics have a fantastic coach, a successful GM, a supportive and bright ownership group.  They need to continue the process, make good decisions, and get a little lucky.



bob
MY NOTE:  First off, there are a number of different ways of rebuilding, through the draft is just one.  Furthermore, if rebuilding through the draft was such a great way to go then Philadelphia and Cleveland would be replacing the Charlotte Bobcats and LA Clippers as the top franchises in the NBA (the latter two having already replaced Boston and LAL).  In fact, there would never be a perennially losing franchise since the draft is structured to prevent that.  Teams would be horrible losers for a year or two and then their high draft picks would turn them into contenders, right?  Doesn't happen like that, does it?

Furthermore, if you want to land a star, you need to show them you are getting to the point where their impact will propel the team deep into the playoffs.  Being a loser doesn't do that.  Just the opposite, it drives them away.  Now that Rondo's gone, if we weren't playing some inspired, albeit inconsistent, ball would there be any chance whatsoever of Kevin Love or another marquis name player coming here?  If we won 25 games last year and 25 this year would any high-quality player want to come here and tread water with us?

The funniest part is that a lot of people who want the draft picks are the same people who point out Danny's drafting mistakes (e.g. Fab Melo, JR Giddens).  If he's so bad at drafting, why would they want to build through the draft?!  If you don't get a top 3 choice the quality usually takes a big hit.  Look at #4 Aaron Gordon, #5 Dante Exum, and #9 Noah Vonleh.  The first two are underwhelming the league and the last one can't get off the bench, even in Charlotte and all three of those players had scouts, GMs and fans drooling on draft day.  So, it's not just Danny, it's the nature of the draft itself.  You're hiring workers who have only college experience, and maybe only 1 or 2 years of that, for a high IQ position.


I agree with Jeff Clark.  I'll take winning anyday.  It makes my food go down easier and stay down.




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Smart GM. Smart coach. Loads of draft picks. This will be a fun ride whatever happens.

Hi,
Interesting coincidence (or is it) Jeff Clarke and Zach Lowe write basically about the same at the same time.
I agree with Bobh - winning over better odds of high draft picks hands down. Besides all other things there's one that they can't get any other way - playoffs experience (I think Scal mentioned it recently). Worth of it is huge, especially for Brad.

AK

One thing this also doesn't take into account is that Boston may have one or more top lottery picks while contending over the next few years, thanks to our friends in Brooklyn. No other team in the league is set up that way. We can be a middle of the road playoff team (or better) for the next couple of years, playing well enough to keep fans excited, players interested in being here, and let the Nets tank for us.

-V

First off, I think free agency is just as much a crap shoot as taking your chance at a lottery pick. Look over the years, there are many busts as there are success stories involving free agents. However, if you are wrong with a draft choice you do not pay a heavy penalty financially as you would a free agent.

You really have to be sure that if you are signing a free agent for top dollar, he plays your system not his. If not you are stuck with him for 4-5 years and if you trade him, you get penny's on the dollar coming back or a journeymen player.

In rebuilding, you are either rebuilding or not rebuilding.....your cannot be half pregnant. Danny know that the draft is where you build from or at least acquire enough young players to be able to prompt a trade for a super star. If not we will be marred in no mans land for a long time.

This year you can pick up a good center at 8-9 which is where Stein in looking to be drafted at, so you do not have to seek at top 5 pick.

112288

112288,

I could not agree with you more when you mention the free agency approach is just as risky as waiting for ping pong balls.

However, I think that finding a second tier free agent is much more the way the Cs should go this summer. The second tier guys are still likely to be a little bit more hungry and also not have so many stats to their past that they think that their next team should revolve around them.

Lebron was a top quality free agent when he left Cleveland, but mostly because of his overwhelming skills. Most other guys do not fall anywhere near him and are much bigger risks that the Celtics probably do not need to chase at all.

Wide Cycle,

You touch on some very important points. I agree. get the guy who has untapped ability, who is hungry and comes at a discount.

112288

112288

BaronV wrote:One thing this also doesn't take into account is that Boston may have one or more top lottery picks while contending over the next few years, thanks to our friends in Brooklyn.  No other team in the league is set up that way.  We can be a middle of the road playoff team (or better) for the next couple of years, playing well enough to keep fans excited, players interested in being here, and let the Nets tank for us.  

-V

Baron,

Excellent, excellent point. We could really take off and still get a good lottery pick because Brooklyn implodes. Because Danny has an obsession with draft picks we are not counting upon our own fortunes solely.


bob


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Danny could package our #1 this year and Brooklyn's next year to trade up for the 8th or 9th pick this year...sure would like to get Cauley-Stein. If not and we're picking 16-18, we'd best hope Frank the Tank can play a decent center.

A lot of good points made in this thread.  In fact, I'd say the salient comments posted by our members vastly outweigh those by Jeremy Brevard.

I have an approach that's guaranteed to give Danny Ainge the #1 pick in the coming draft:

1. Wait to see what team is in the #1 slot after the ping pong balls are distributed.

2. Package up every single draft pick he can legally part with in a given year, and approach the #1 slotted team to exchange slots.

Hey, I never said this idea is sane.  All I said was that it's guaranteed go get Danny the #1.  But, if getting the #1 is as immensely important as the tankmeisters say, isn't it important enough to use all your assets in one fell swoop?  Of course, the answer from any legitimate humanoid is, "No."

An the primary reason "No" is the only lucid answer is that there are many ways to accomplish the objective.  Instead of getting this year's #1, with a couple of draft picks (or maybe four from their vast treasury), they might be able to get last year's #1, who's only 21 years old and ostensibly has a bright future as an NBA center.  Or maybe a couple of picks (or maybe four), they could swap #1s this year with whatever team is poised to grab Cauley-Stein.  Or maybe the fast-ripening, exciting team they have become will help to pry loose a free agent, whether it be DeAndre Jordan or Robin Lopez.

I'm not interested in debating the specific merits of any players I named because I used them only as examples of the general premise I'm trying to establish.  Mainly that becoming an extremely competitive team has combined with a lot of cap room and a host of picks to make the Celtics legitimate players in all three avenues of player procurement.  You hope one avenue will do the trick; if not, you try the second....and then the third.

We can all jump around like a field of grasshoppers and alternately lick our chops or gnash our teeth as visions of intimidators dance in our heads.  But the REAL hope is that Danny will take most persistent and well-advised possible stance in using all of the weapons at his disposal go make this team better.

Sam