Celtics Clinch Playoff spot

Amazingly, even now, the only matchup set in stone is Boston plays Cleveland.  For the rest of the matchups, here is the puzzle explained:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/nba-playoff-picture--one-night-remains-with-so-much-left-to-decide-061744499.html

1. Atlanta Hawks

2. Cleveland Cavaliers

3. Chicago Bulls or Toronto Raptors

4. Toronto Raptors or Chicago Bulls

5. Washington Wizards

6. Milwaukee Bucks

7. Boston Celtics

8. Indiana Pacers or Brooklyn Nets


And here's how each team will end up in each spot, along with its current record and Wednesday opponent:


Chicago Bulls: 49-32, vs. Hawks 8:00 p.m. ET

- No. 3 if they beat the Hawks OR the Raptors lose to the Charlotte Hornets

- No. 4 if they lose to the Hawks AND the Raptors beat the Hornets


Toronto Raptors: 48-33, vs. Hornets 7:00 p.m. ET

- No. 3 if they beat the Hornets AND the Bulls lose to the Hawks

- No. 4 if they lose to the Hornets OR the Bulls beat the Hawks


Indiana Pacers: 38-43, at Memphis Grizzlies 9:30 p.m. ET

- No. 8 if they beat the Grizzlies OR the Nets lose to the Orlando Magic

- Eliminated if they lose to the Grizzlies AND the Nets beat the Magic


Brooklyn Nets: 37-44, vs. Orlando Magic 8:00 p.m. ET

- No. 8 if they beat the Magic AND the Pacers lose to the Grizzlies

- Eliminated if they lose to the Magic OR the Pacers beat the Grizzlies


The West is significantly more complicated. While the Los Angeles Clippers 112-101 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night finishes their regular season and ensures that they cannot finish lower than the No. 3 seed, the San Antonio Spurs or Houston Rockets could still take the No. 2 seed or even fall all the way down to No. 6. There is also one playoff berth yet to be determined. It's a little tough to follow, but the basic breakdown looks like this:

1. Golden State Warriors

2. Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio Spurs, or Houston Rockets

3. San Antonio Spurs or Los Angeles Clippers

4. Portland Trail Blazers (will not have homecourt advantage in first round)

5. Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, or San Antonio Spurs

6. Memphis Grizzlies, Houston Rockets, or San Antonio Spurs

7. Dallas Mavericks

8. New Orleans Pelicans or Oklahoma City Thunder


So how are we going to figure out which team goes where? Let us guide you:


Los Angeles Clippers: 56-26, already finished season

- No. 2 if the Spurs lose to the Pelicans AND the Rockets lose to the Utah Jazz

- No. 3 if the Spurs beat the Pelicans OR the Rockets beat the Jazz


San Antonio Spurs: 55-26, at Pelicans 8:00 p.m. ET

- No. 2 if they beat the Pelicans

- No. 3 if they lose to the Pelicans AND the Rockets lose to the Jazz

- No. 5 if they lose to the Pelicans AND the Rockets beat the Jazz AND the Grizzlies lose to the Pacers

- No. 6 if they lose to the Pelicans AND the Rockets beat the Jazz AND the Grizzlies beat the Pacers


Houston Rockets: 55-26, vs. Jazz 8:00 p.m. ET

- No. 2 if they beat the Jazz AND the Spurs lose to the Pelicans

- No. 5 if they beat the Jazz AND the Spurs beat the Pelicans; OR if they lose to the Jazz AND the Grizzlies lose to the Pacers

- No. 6 if they lose to the Jazz AND the Grizzlies beat the Pacers


Memphis Grizzlies: 54-27, vs. Pacers 9:30 p.m. ET

- No. 5 if they beat the Pacers AND the Rockets lose to the Jazz; OR if they beat the Pacers AND the Rockets beat the Jazz AND the Spurs lose to the Pelicans

- No. 6 if they lose to the Pacers; OR if they beat the Pacers AND the Rockets beat the Jazz AND the Spurs beat the Pelicans


New Orleans Pelicans: 44-37, vs. Spurs 8:00 p.m. ET

- No. 8 if they beat the Spurs OR the Thunder lose to the Minnesota Timberwolves

- Eliminated if they lose to the Spurs AND the Thunder beat the Timberwolves


Oklahoma City Thunder: 44-37, at Timberwolves 8:00 p.m. ET

- No. 8 if they beat the Timberwolves AND the Pelicans lose to the Spurs

- Eliminated if they lose to the Timberwolves OR the Pelicans beat the Spurs

cowens/oldschool wrote:

kdp59 wrote:total championships won by the #3 pick in the draft:

J. Embiid- ZERO
O. Porter- ZERO ( 3 playoff games)
B. Beal- ZERO (11 playoff games)
E. Kanter- ZERO (4 playoff games)
D. Favors- ZERO (4 playoff games)
J. Harden- ZERO (55 playoff games)
OJ Mayo- ZERO ( 20 playoff games)
A. Horford- ZERO (48 playoff games)
A. Morrison- ZERO (2 playoff games)
D. Williams- ZERO (63 playoff games)

that's TEN years of #3 picks in the draft. ZERO championship rings.


the average games played by those 10 players was 57 and the average minutes this year was a whopping 1680.

I'll take the playoffs  myself.

Kantor who is only 22, Favors and Horford are significant upgrades over our bigs, Beal is a young improving piece that with John Wall make up a young dynamic backcourt. James Harden is a budding superstar, we'll see next year what Embiid looks like, wonder how the 16th pick looks the last 10 years, without checking I'd favor #3 as having far greater impact than 16.

I understand everyone is rooting for the C's, I'm not as dumb as I look, but you need players, never saw a contending team without the players, whos our best player? Sam would probably say its IT, I think Kyrie Irving and JR Smith are salivating at being covered defensively by IT. Stevens is doing a great job and doing it with smoke and mirrors and in todays soft NBA it seems players are always being rested, we've played alot of teams with their best players off against us the last month. This team is in year 2 of a rebuild and in need of as many great players it can acquire as possible. Great players win championships, great players need other great players to play with, we have a bunch of back ups as starters in our frontcourt and the semblance of an up and coming backcourt. Luckily were in the East and this league is soft, thats why were where we are.

here it is over the past 5 years Cowens, I did it for another thread about possibly trading up for WCS:

Again the real comparison is the #16 pick and the #13 pick because as I showed earlier only one team at 313 moved up on the lottery in the past 5 years ( and that was only ONE spot).

but here is the first year averages and third year averages of each pick form 2008-2012

since this thread is about trading up, I thought it might be nice to see how each selection in the draft does in their rookie years and in year three.

I started at the 2012 draft to get the third year as this year and went back 5 years to the 2008 draft.

here is the average playing time for each selection in year one and year three:

Pick---G/year1---Min/year 1------G/year 3------Min/ year 3
1--------67-----------2424---------------69--------------2407
2--------74-----------1626---------------62-------------1760
3--------72-----------1802---------------70-------------1947
4--------71-----------2119---------------71-------------2122
5--------68-----------1704---------------72-------------2110
6--------61-----------1605---------------60-------------1480
7--------76-----------2262---------------64-------------1764
8--------65-----------1232---------------53-------------1402
9--------69-----------1565--------------74--------------2411
10------69-----------1798---------------70-------------2049
11------57-----------1075--------------56--------------1212
12------49------------854--------------60--------------1404
13------56----------1169--------------65---------------1480
14------49------------667--------------60--------------1176
15------66-----------1182-------------57--------------1218
16------55------------742--------------49---------------967
17------67-----------1430-------------75---------------1955
18------61-----------1202-------------54--------------1380
19------56------------663-------------59---------------1631
20------44------------541-------------40----------------693
21------47------------977-------------36---------------958
22------38------------790-------------46--------------1012
23------63----------1115----------37----------------579
24------23-----------246-----------50--------------1209
25------49-----------842-----------45--------------1044
26------53-----------904-----------65-------------1369
27------54-----------825----------35---------------733
28------61-----------902----------64--------------1486
29------31-----------412----------35--------------506
30------42----------476-----------24---------------636

I liked the band, but never understood their lyrics myself.

What's the frequency, Kenneth?" is your Benzedrine, uh-huh
I was brain-dead, locked out, numb, not up to speed
I thought I'd pegged you an idiot's dream
Tunnel vision from the outsider's screen
I never understood the frequency, uh-huh
You wore our expectations like an armored suit, uh-huh


I'd studied your cartoons, radio, music, TV, movies, magazines
Richard said, "Withdrawal in disgust is not the same as apathy"
A smile like the cartoon, tooth for a tooth
You said that irony was the shackles of youth
You wore a shirt of violent green, uh-huh
I never understood the frequency, uh-huh


"What's the frequency, Kenneth?" is your Benzedrine, uh-huh
Butterfly decal, rear-view mirror, dogging the scene
You smile like the cartoon, tooth for a tooth
You said that irony was the shackles of youth
You wore a shirt of violent green, uh-huh
I never understood the frequency, uh-huh


You wore our expectations like an armored suit, uh-huh
I couldn't understand
You said that irony was the shackles of youth, uh-huh
I couldn't understand
You wore a shirt of violent green, uh-huh
I couldn't understand
I never understood, don't fuck with me, uh-huh

Great song. Lyrics are hard to make out. I always had the impression that it was about someone asking Kenneth Starr about the frequency of Monica's encounters with Clinton.

But who cares? It rocks.

Cowens,

I absolutely would not say Isaiah is the Celtics' best player because I don't care about best players; i care about teams.  I like to be in control of my own quotes, please.

Sam

kdp59 wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

kdp59 wrote:total championships won by the #3 pick in the draft:

J. Embiid- ZERO
O. Porter- ZERO ( 3 playoff games)
B. Beal- ZERO (11 playoff games)
E. Kanter- ZERO (4 playoff games)
D. Favors- ZERO (4 playoff games)
J. Harden- ZERO (55 playoff games)
OJ Mayo- ZERO ( 20 playoff games)
A. Horford- ZERO (48 playoff games)
A. Morrison- ZERO (2 playoff games)
D. Williams- ZERO (63 playoff games)

that's TEN years of #3 picks in the draft. ZERO championship rings.


the average games played by those 10 players was 57 and the average minutes this year was a whopping 1680.

I'll take the playoffs  myself.

Kantor who is only 22, Favors and Horford are significant upgrades over our bigs, Beal is a young improving piece that with John Wall make up a young dynamic backcourt. James Harden is a budding superstar, we'll see next year what Embiid looks like, wonder how the 16th pick looks the last 10 years, without checking I'd favor #3 as having far greater impact than 16.

I understand everyone is rooting for the C's, I'm not as dumb as I look, but you need players, never saw a contending team without the players, whos our best player? Sam would probably say its IT, I think Kyrie Irving and JR Smith are salivating at being covered defensively by IT. Stevens is doing a great job and doing it with smoke and mirrors and in todays soft NBA it seems players are always being rested, we've played alot of teams with their best players off against us the last month. This team is in year 2 of a rebuild and in need of as many great players it can acquire as possible. Great players win championships, great players need other great players to play with, we have a bunch of back ups as starters in our frontcourt and the semblance of an up and coming backcourt. Luckily were in the East and this league is soft, thats why were where we are.

here it is over the past 5 years Cowens, I did it for another thread about possibly trading up for WCS:

Again the real comparison is the #16 pick and the #13 pick because as I showed earlier only one team at 313 moved up   on the lottery in the past 5 years ( and that was only ONE spot).

but here is the first year averages and third year averages of each pick form 2008-2012

since this thread is about trading up, I thought it might be nice to see how each selection in the draft does in their rookie years and in year three.

I started at the 2012 draft to get the third year as this year and went back 5 years to the 2008 draft.

here is the average playing time for each selection in year one and year three:

Pick---G/year1---Min/year 1------G/year 3------Min/ year 3
1--------67-----------2424---------------69--------------2407
2--------74-----------1626---------------62-------------1760
3--------72-----------1802---------------70-------------1947
4--------71-----------2119---------------71-------------2122
5--------68-----------1704---------------72-------------2110
6--------61-----------1605---------------60-------------1480
7--------76-----------2262---------------64-------------1764
8--------65-----------1232---------------53-------------1402
9--------69-----------1565--------------74--------------2411
10------69-----------1798---------------70-------------2049
11------57-----------1075--------------56--------------1212
12------49------------854--------------60--------------1404
13------56----------1169--------------65---------------1480
14------49------------667--------------60--------------1176
15------66-----------1182-------------57--------------1218
16------55------------742--------------49---------------967
17------67-----------1430-------------75---------------1955
18------61-----------1202-------------54--------------1380
19------56------------663-------------59---------------1631
20------44------------541-------------40----------------693
21------47------------977-------------36---------------958
22------38------------790-------------46--------------1012
23------63----------1115----------37----------------579
24------23-----------246-----------50--------------1209
25------49-----------842-----------45--------------1044
26------53-----------904-----------65-------------1369
27------54-----------825----------35---------------733
28------61-----------902----------64--------------1486
29------31-----------412----------35--------------506
30------42----------476-----------24---------------636

kdp,

It looks like there is almost no significant drop off in minutes, with an occasional exception, until you get to the mid-1st round and even then the numbers come up a bit.  What does that tell me?  It tells me that if you're good enough to make it onto an NBA roster (as opposed to being merely selected to be on one) you're good enough to play on one.  Exceptions like James Young are unusual.

What this doesn't tell, and I think your "here are the last 10 years of #3 picks" chart does tell, is whether or not their contributions have turned a team that sucked badly enough to get the #3 pick into a winner.  That's what it's all about, isn't it?  Minutes played might be an indicator of how valuable he is to the team, in the coach's eyes, but it doesn't mean the team is winning.  Case in point, Evan Turner.  #2 pick in the draft by Philly, which continued to be a losing franchise.  Went to Indy, didn't improve them either.  He's playing well now, but that's because Brad Stevens is a genius at figuring out how to apply players' strengths and not because Turner suddenly "grew up".  He's playing the same game he has always played, it's just working now in Brad's World.

Maybe it is about drafting for need vs drafting the best talent available?  If you draft for need, you should improve, at least a little, while if you draft the best available they might not be a good fit.  Drafting best available might just be another way of saying "anybody wanna trade?".


bob


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