Trill of it all: The cost of moving up in draft

ESPNBOSTON

Chris Forsberg, Celtics reporter, ESPNBoston.com

The one name that Boston Celtics fans tend to salivate over more than any other when the 2015 NBA draft is referenced is Kentucky big man Willie Cauley-Stein.

The problem, of course, is that Cauley-Stein -- a 7-footer with freak athleticism -- is expected to be off the board by the time the Celtics utilize the first of their four picks in this year's draft at No. 16. And that invariably leads to hand-wringing over whether Boston's late-season playoff surge cost it a chance at the sort of impact rim protector the team so desperately covets.

In his "Grade A" mock draft, ESPN draft guru Chad Ford referenced this when he wrote, "Celtics fans are rightfully stoked that this year's squad made the playoffs. But it came at huge price. There are 10 to 12 real difference-makers in this draft and the Celtics fell to 16. If it cost them a chance at a rim protector like Cauley-Stein or [Myles] Turner, or an upgrade at small forward like [Justise] Winslow or [Mario] Hezonja, this year's run hurt the franchise long term."

Later, during his online chat, Ford came back to that notion when asked which player would be the best fit for the Celtics.

Answered Ford: "Willie Cauley-Stein ... but, alas, the downside of them making the playoffs is that they won't have a shot at him unless they trade some of their future assets to move up in the draft. The problem is, I'm not sure exactly how far they have to get up to get him. Could be as high as 6 to the Kings."

While the Celtics were making their playoff push, this writer often noted that Boston had the necessary draft picks and assets to maneuver up in the draft should it desire to target a specific player. But it begs the question: What's the price of moving up in the NBA draft?

Unlike the NFL, where plenty of value charts exist offering hints at the cost of moving up, it's not as clear-cut in the NBA. Cost is often subjective and can be dictated by the perceived amount of talent remaining at a particular spot and the direction of the team on the clock.

We can use the Celtics' recent history as a bit of a guide to maneuvering from spot No. 16. It was just two years ago, with Boston in that same spot, that the Celtics moved up three spots to nab Kelly Olynyk by trading away No. 16 (Lucas Nogueira) to Dallas, along with a pair of 2015 second-round picks, which went on to be Nos. 34 (Cleanthony Early) and 47 (Russ Smith).

But getting to No. 13 might not be enough this year for Boston to get what Ford suggested was a real difference-maker. Ford ranks Cauley-Stein at No. 8 on his most recent big board (with Turner at 10). So what could Boston offer to get up even higher?

In that same 2013 draft, Utah used picks Nos. 14 (Shabazz Muhammad) and 21 (Gorgui Dieng) to move up to No. 9 and select Trey Burke.

The Celtics own picks 16, 28, 33 and 45 in this year's draft. Would Danny Ainge sacrifice some swings of the bat to shuffle up and nab a player who might have a better chance of helping this team in the more immediate future? Ainge has admitted Boston won't use all of its picks moving forward -- and there's a lot of them -- but he has to maximize those assets in order to jump at the best opportunity.

Looking ahead to future draft picks, the Celtics have Minnesota's 2016 first-round pick that is protected 1-12 and otherwise becomes a pair of second-round picks. With the likelihood of the latter, it might be better off moved if another team valued it more like a true first-round selection. Boston also has Dallas' first-round pick next year, protected spots 1-7, but the Mavs' uncertain future might leave Boston leery to move it unless it was an opportunity it couldn't pass up (and the same can be said for all the future Brooklyn picks it owns).

What will the Celtics do? Some of that will hinge on how players interview and perform when they meet with team brass both at the NBA draft combine later this month and the team draft workouts in the weeks that follow. While Boston has a firm grasp on players from the scouting process, players will shift on Boston's draft board and the team will assign a value for each player based on when they might be available.

And how the draft plays out might dictate whether Ainge leaps at an opportunity.

We keep coming back to it when discussing the team's ability to add talent moving forward: The Celtics have assets and must simply choose the right spots to utilize them. Boston was willing to give up the Cavaliers' first-round pick in next year's draft to land Isaiah Thomas at February's trade deadline. With draft picks holding even more value as the cap prepares to spike in future seasons, the Celtics must treat them with high value and not be shortsighted with their moves.

But you get the sense that if the Celtics elected to use a pick to seek out someone like Cauley-Stein, well, their fan base would consider that quite Trill.

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AMEN!

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IMO, #16 & 28 could get us around #12 in a trade. getting to the 5-8 range will take some doing.

we have three first next year and are unlikely to have roster space for three rookies. So Danny could "Gamble" and offer what he sees as the top pick he may have then. Probably the Nets pick. that could get us up to around 8, IMO.

adding either another future first OR one of our young players would be needed IF Ainge really wants WCS. which we don't know what he and Stevens think of him. Most of us FANS see him as a missing piece, but who knows what the decision makers think.

but IF they do love him and want to move up to get him....#16 &28 this year, the Nets pick next year and Sully or Olynyk will be the cost. (or similar player picks).

Orlando would be a team I would key on if they stay at #5.

From what I've seen and heard, I really like Cauley-Stein.  And there are ways to get him than to tank, which is exactly what's being talked about despite all the wink wink denials of the tankmeisters.  Use assets to move up.  Trade for him after the fact.  Makes for interesting discussion fodder, but I guess I'd place my trust with Danny in terms of gathering talent over the summer.

See me in October!

Sam

My Yankee frugality compels me to mention that this is the time of year that current draft picks become the most valuable, and picks in future years are at their least valuable.

This is the time of year that bad bad deals are made, like the Nets giving up their then-trivial future draft picks for the Must-Have-At-The-Moment KG and Pierce, who appeared to be the answer to all the Nets' problems.

Buying high and selling low goes against Danny's basic values as a GM, although I know they will be tested this summer. That's why I wrote to him on his twitter wall.

I'm as big a Celtics' optimist as there is, but I think you guys are probably with me that we're not going to win the title next year, and WCS isn't going to get us there.

The fact is that WCS is even more of a one way player than Olynyk is, and there isn't even a really good chance that he'll be better overall than Zeller or KO in the next couple/few/dozen years.

And as one way player's go, WCS isn't even the ideal fit for our team, because he's not a good rebounder and isn't a tough/physical/strong player. He shies away from the heavy contact, and there's going to be a whole lot more of that at the next level.

And because WCS wouldn't make us any better at bodying up the 270-300 lb centers in the league, we'd Still have to be searching for somebody who can. Zeller is a slightly below average starting center, but pretty balance between offense and defense. KO is an elite backup center, and is only going to get better. Bringing in WCS would push Zeller or KO into third string minutes, without actually upgrading the starting unit much/at all. The glaring problem with the starting unit is offense, not defense. WCS would make us even worse in that regard.

Now, WCS would make a great role playing addition to the Celtics, perhaps even as a starter with the right tweaks to the rest of the lineup, but when the price for such a role player starts skyrocketing that makes me want to pull waay back.

This is a deep draft, and next year looks very good too. And giving up Olynyk or Sully, two young, talented players with a track record already, in addition to a possible top 10 pick next year, plus pick 28 this year, seems like way too much for a limited player who doesn't even love contact.

Filling one hole while opening up another is fine, but not if the cost is digging two three additional holes.

We have two of the top 30 centers, probably, even if neither are top 20. As far as positional strength goes, center isn't even in our top two positions of need.

If WCS filled our last need, that would be one thing, but that's not the case.

And to put into perspective what we'd be giving up to get him, the fact is that Robert Upshaw is every bit as talented as WCS, and would be an even better fit on the court for us because he is significantly stronger than WCS. And Upshaw may very well be there at 28, or we could throw in pick 45 to move up from 28, while getting another solid player at 16 and a good prospect at 33.

I personally suspect Upshaw might be into cocaine or crack. Harder drugs than just weed, and addiction problems. But getting one or two good years out of him seems like a safer bet than basically selling the farm to get a similar talent and open up a bunch of other holes in the process.

That Nets pick next year is one of the very most valuable assets we have, even if it seems like an afterthought right now. Even at mid-season trade deadline, that pick will double in trade value from what it is right now, and could still help us get our center upgrade in time for a playoff run.

To illustrate the phenomenon of future picks being sold low, with the team regretting it forever afterwards, last summer after the Love/Wiggins trade. Minny turned right around and flipped their newly acquired Miami first rounder for a one year rental of Thaddeus Young. Now that pick is top 10, Young is long gone, and while they ended up getting KG for Young, they could have just gotten KG this summer. Young was never going to make Minny a contender, but Minny figured they had enough picks and it was just a future first anyway.
Now that pick could turn in to WCS of all people.

We have every reason to suspect that Nets pick next year will be top 20, and it will very likely be top 15, and quite likely be a top 10 pick. Williams, Lopez, and Johnson are all a year older, and at some point one or two of them will start fading precipitously.

WCS isn't a franchise player, and he doesn't even have an elite psychological make up. Family members have even questioned whether he loves the game.

If WCS was a better combination of skills and strength and mentality, throwing the bank at a team to get him just might be worth the risk.

The Patriots this year thought about trading up in the first round, but they ended up sitting tight and got a top 15-17 player at a position of need at pick 32.

Last year Danny sat tight at 6 and got Marcus Smart, whose record as a starting point guard is well over .500 already. No other rookie really came close to adding wins to their team like Smart did, with the possible exception of the 24 year old Mirotic.

If WCS falls to 10 or something, then maybe it's time to start making phone calls. But a guy like Turner might stay on the board later, and cost much less to trade up for.

And then there's guys like Christian Wood, who is physically a lot like WCS was two years ago, who has even longer arms, and shows much much more skill and talent offensively. Wood already has a step-back jumper and solid handles on his dribble drives. And he can get up to WCS's 240 lbs within two years.

Another better alternative to trading a bundle for WCS would be to just outbid other teams for Tyson Chandler. We have tons of cap space anyway, and may not even end up with an opportunity to use it.

Chandler is right in that sweet spot of still being very valuable and productive, while not quite being worth a max contract. That allows a team like Boston to make it happen, with the only real obstacle being cost.
And getting Chandler, or even Hibbert, no worse than WCS and probably much better, would open up our draft picks for addressing our other real needs.

I suppose we should be hoping that PHI wins a top 3 pick in the lottery. If they do, Joel Embiid may very well become available at the right price. And Embiid, being much stronger and even much longer than WCS, in addition to showing much more offensive talent, would fit our roster better than WCS, which means he's probably more worthy of trading the kitchen sink to get him. But I still wouldn't put Kelly in that package. KO has all the tools to be offensively dominant, even if he remains on the bench as a Walton level 6th man.

Now to contradict my previous post about trading up for WCS, he may not be the missing piece to make us a real legit contender, but our cap space and trade exceptions certainly give us a chance to to get to legit contender status in July. Luol Deng + Jeremy Lin + Perk to be our 3rd 4th string situational 5 minute guy, would get us pretty much to contender status.

The fact is we played at a 54 win pace from Feb on, and those moves listed above along with WCS would probably get us to 60+ games in the East.

Lin/IT4/Smart
Smart/Bradley/Turner
Deng/Crowder/Turner
WCS/KO or Sully (one traded)/Crowder
Zeller/WCS/KO or Sully/Perk

Since PF is arguably a position of greater need than center, and that WCS can defend the position, while still upgrading our defense and rim protection, I put him as starting PF. Like Nerlens Noel, PF might be WCS's best postition, even if they both have 3rd string center-like offensive skills.

to walk my Yankee Frugle Dandy comment back even further, I think one great bargain basement treasure is one already on our roster. I think James Young will never be a good defender, but I think his scoring dominance in the DLeague as an 18-19 year old is a big fat glimpse of what we can expect from him offensively at the NBA level.

One reason there was so few minutes for him in Boston, aside from his youth, immaturity, and the valuable lesson of making him earn every minute, is the fact that we didn't have good/great defensive bigs, and we really needed defensive production from our wing positions. And it worked, as a team. We were a 15th-ish level defense based on our top 4-ish level defensive backcourt/perimeter defense.

But if we can make major defensive upgrades to our frontcourt, even with guys who play 20 minutes of good d, that would open up much more of an opportunity for Young to get on the court, get comfortable, and start lighting up the scoreboard like a Nick Young, Jamaal Crawford, or Louis Williams type bench scorer.

Probably not at that level this year, but well on his way at least.

Here's a theoretical trade scenario for Embiid:

76ers get top 2 pick in the lottery, and can get a franchise caliber center.

Knowing that Noel is a better fit next to Towns or Okafor, because of Noel's ability to guard PFs, the 6ers start entertaining trade offers for Embiid. Especially since fans and minority owners or whatever are getting really impatient and want to see a quality product on the floor.

Celtics offer IT4, who could start for them and create his own offense, which becomes important with Noel at PF and unable to stretch the floor.

In addition to IT4, Celtics offer Sully as a great bench player, the 16th draft pick, and the 28th draft pick, and Nets 2016 draft pick.

76ers sign SG Danny Green to a big contract, since they have lots of room, Green fits perfectly with IT4, and Green has experience with 76ers head coach, who used to assistant coach Green in San Antonio.

76ers end up with a roster of:

IT4/Wroten/Wright
DGreen/Delon Wright (28th pick)
Sam Dekker(16 or slight trade up)/Jeremi Grant/Covington
Noel/Sullinger/free agent/Sam Dekker
Towns/Okafor/Noel/Sullinger

Maybe I'm dreaming.

rambone ,you are about the only Celtic fan that sees Kelly as a long term NBA center.

most of us see him at best be the typical stretch 4 that it all the rage now in the NBA. as Such he is much better suited at PF.

Zeller is a quality NBA back up center, but obviously can't hold up as a starter for an entire season.

we'll know soon enough if Danny and company feel the same way.


I think more highly of WCS (though I am not sold on how much would be needed to move up to get him) than I certainly do of re-treads like Deng, Lin and Perkins. But we each have our own opinions of course.

Any cap space/salary Danny uses I would prefer on players no older than 28YO now myself.

the fact that Woods is expected to be drafted as much as 20 spots below WSC, tells you what the mock drafter (today) see in him. We won't know until draft day how the NBA GMs feel.

Zeller just did hold up as a starting center for a season, and we made the playoffs while playing with a better record after the all star break than 25 teams.

You may not have predicted that success, but it happened, and it was real. And KO's +/- was a team high, and he was a major reason the team did indeed outperform all of your, and Danny's, expectations.

And for all the trendiness of stretch 4s, I've explained here like 3 times already how much more valuable a stretch 5 is. As long as that stretch 5 isn't a complete disaster, and KO is far from a disaster defensively. Only against a handful of matchups against 270-300 lb guys.

I'll explain it one more time. How effective can a rim protector like WCS be if he is defending KO at the 3 point line? Zero. You can't protect the rim if you're 20+ feet away from the rim. Which is a big part of the reason the team almost Always plays better when KO is on the floor. If you can grasp why a stretch 4 is valuable, surely you can grasp why a stretch 5 is valuable as well. Even moreso, because he draws away what is usually an even better rim protector.

If you still have trouble accepting that, you might consider that I declared our rebuild basically over on December 10th. I saw this playoff run coming a mile away, and I nailed the Rondo trade as being an instant team improvement the day it happened.

I wasn't listening to common knowledge and popular opinion, which as common things go, is resistant to evidence that contradicts the common "wisdom".

Your belief that Zeller can in no way last a season as starting center, despite him just doing exactly that on a playoff team with a top 15 defense, tells me that belief of yours is held over from probably last summer.

Plenty of people share that opinion with you. Even though they JUST saw it happen in front of their eyes.

The common belief that KO is in no way a center was just proven false all year as well. The team played better almost every single time he was on the court, which coincidentally just so happened to be the times when the lane was wide open for guys like IT4, Turner, and Crowder to attack the rim without ANY help defense in the zip code.

Go ahead and call that a coincidence. You'll have plenty of company. The same people who basically pretend that our playoff run didn't mean anything. The same people who think that our awful record with Rondo and Green means that THIS roster (which is VERY different), isn't that good, and is a below .500 team. Because we only won 40 games.

Never mind that we played better than 25 teams starting the DAY this roster came together. Never mind that we were outplaying Toronto, Washington, Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Chicago. Never mind that we competed in every single game against the Cavs when "popular wisdom" said we'd get blown out of every game.

According to the fraud that is Chad Ford, the Celtics made a grave mistake and paid a heavy price for making him look like the tool he is by blowing away all "popular" predictions of how good the Celtics were.

If you think a center is only good if he has a high number of blocks, then I'll just stop trying to show you otherwise.

And if you think WCS is better than Hibbert, and isn't going to get pushed around like a ragdoll for his first year or two, I won't say anything more.

And if you think the Celtics are only going to get better by putting an age limit of 28 on our roster, I'll leave you to that as well. I'm sure you can point out all the championships that have won without veterans on the wrong side of 28.

One thing to keep in mind about WCS is that he played most of his minutes at power forward this year, his breakout year. Kentucky used a platoon/hockey shift type sub pattern, and WCS started next to #1-2 pick Towns. Towns and WCS would usually sub out together, to be replaced by Dakari Johnson and Marcus Lee.

So not only were most of WCS's minutes next to the top prospect in the draft, and a far superior center prospect, but of the minutes WCS played without Towns, he was playing with Dakari Johnson most of the time. Dakari, being stronger, always played center because WCS has the speed to defend PFs (and SFs, etc).
So WCS's greatest weakness, toughness and strength defending in the post, were largely untested all season.

That's the kind of detail that an A. Sherrod Blakely, or a Chris Forsberg, or even a Chad Ford isn't necessarily going to pick up on. And they haven't. Just like they didn't pick up on rookie Marcus Smart being second in the league in offensive fouls drawn.

So the belief that WCS is some elite defensive center isn't built on a solid foundation of evidence. It's largely based on his success guarding much smaller college power forwards. Only one of those PFs were a real beast, and that was Montrezl Harrell. And Harrell had a good game, and didn't get pushed around in the slightest by WCS.

That's the other thing about WCS. You can play a smaller, high skilled player against him. WCS isn't going to make them pay even though he can shoot right over them. He's not a natural basketball player, has poor coordination, poor touch, and poor offensive (and rebounding) instincts.

You could literally start Jerebko at center against WCS. At the very least, JJ could pull him out to the 3 point line where he can't do any damage except to stop JJ.

And against Big centers, WCS is going to have the exact same problem Zeller and KO do. Holding ground against monsters, and rebounding. Sully would neutralize WCS every game. He'd probably get tons of rebounds too. Even if WCS got an occasional highlight reel dunk or two right on Sullinger's head, that might be all the talk of the basketball world. The basketball world that places more value on the occasionally spectacular than the nitty gritty that actually wins or loses games.

Three hours worth of discussion at the water cooler can often be about two points, or a single block that may not have even resulted in a change of possession.

Here's a bit of sports science. The lower a person's center of balance, the more leverage they have. If two prospects were identical in every way, including height, but one had lower-set hips/shorter legs, you can bet that the shorter legged guy of the same weight and height would have a slight advantage if the two were to have a sumo wrestling match, or to battle for post/rebounding position.

That brings me to WCS vs KO vs Zeller. They all weigh about 240 lbs, KO and Zeller perhaps 5 lbs more.
As you might expect from T-Rex Kelly O, his legs are like his arms, not very long. But where short arms are a disadvantage, short legs for post play actually help, by bringing your center of gravity down. Center of gravity is somewhere around your hips, and the lower your hips, the lower your center of gravity.

Expecting WCS The Longer to be stronger in preventing DCousins or any of the rest of the Bigs from establishing nice, layup range post position, is more of a hope or a wish than a reasonable expectation. Closer to a wish than a hope.

WCS is a fine role player, but that role is as likely to be a defensive PF than it is to be a full-time starting center. Even tough he'll play center offensively, being without skills and all.

Very similar to the Nerlens Noel case. Amazing as a PF defensively, but exposed and average at best against 260+ guys.

And there's nothing wrong with being a standout defensive power forward. WCS would spend more time in space, and more time guarding skilled, athletic offensive players from 15+ feet. Not to mention all the switching onto guards that he'll handle very well, without leaving a big defensive hole around the basket. He'd have another 7 footer. Like he did all season.

And some of the advanced stats show we need an upgrade defensively at PF more than we do C. Bass and Sully were well below average, whereas KO and Zeller were slightly better.

If we were to get WCS, Sully might honestly make a better option at center against the real giants of the NBA. Sully can hold his ground with all of them, and at least keep them from having huge nights.

I hope for WCS's sake that he goes to a team that can play him at least half of his minutes at PF. The Celtics would be one of them. And it'd fill our biggest defensive weaknesses, rim protection and PF defense, and WCS might/probably would even start as a rookie at PF.

Anthony Davis was played at center. It didn't go very well. They got him a real center and now AD's career is better than ever. LaMarcus Aldridge never could really defend the center position.
But WCS would be a great player to defend LMA.

Good post rambone you really know the game, however Deng and Lin we don't need for obvious reasons, but great analysis of Cauley-Stein's strentghs and weaknesses.

Rambone,

You made a pretty bold statement that I bet caused dissonance among many people: "The team played better almost every time he was on the court."  You may have made that comment after looking at his individual +/- stats.  As you may know, 82Games publishes +/- stats for the top 20 five-player combinations in terms of minutes played.

Olynyk played in four of the top 20 combinations (in terms of minutes), totaling 271.3 minutes (so it's not a "small sample").  Every one of those four combinations had a plus record, totaling +83 in all.  In contrast, the fivesome of Smart, Bradley, Turner, Bass and Zeller, which logged the most minutes (320.7) of any single Celtics combination, totaled only -51.

There is one complicating factor.  Based on only the 20 most frequently played combinations, Kelly played 59% of his minutes with one combination, including Rondo, Bradley, Green and Sullinger.

In terms of points per minute played, the combination of Smart, Thornton, Turner, Bass and Olynyk had the best per-minute plus figure (+ 0.89) of all 20 combinations.

So, at least based on the +/- stat (which I like for evaluating combinations but not individuals), you certainly weren't talking through your hat.

Personally, I'm ambivalent on Kelly.  I've frequently said that the bottom half of his body has very little idea what the top part is going.  He looks gangly and awkward to me, especially when he tries to stop short and his torso and legs temporarily seem to go in different directions.

You like Kelly's low center of gravity based on relatively short legs.  However, I've agonized over what appears to me to be his heavy-legged efforts at steaming up the floor.  He's very intelligent, and he's proven to be pretty good at addressing his shortcomings (no pun intended), so I think he's worth keeping around to try to identify the full extent of his upside.  Of the two, I'd trade Sully before Kelly because I'm concerned that Sully may be close to reach his ceiling.

Sam

well since I seemed to get your goat by disagreeing with you, I will only say a few things in response.

1) you will be hard pressed to find a bigger Kelly supporter then ME on this board. those who have been around here a while will all agree.

2) Zeller was OUR starting center last year and played 21.1 min per game. I don't think I need to say anymore about where Zeller stands as an NBA starting center.

3) You tout Dakari Johnson on other posts as a good draft pick and say he couldn't get off the bench because Kentucky had better players ahead of him only. one of which was WCS, who you seem to feel will be a bust. Reality is you are correct that we'll have a better chance at landing Johnson in this years draft.

4) you're not the only Celtic fan who thought or saw trading Rondo and/or Green as plus moves. Not sure where you predicted anything here, maybe you're confusing where you've posted things.

5) I never said blocked shots is the only thing that makes a good NBA center

6) I don't know if WCS will be better than Hibbert. but I THINK he'd be better in our system than Hibbert. Much like I assume you THINK Hibbert would be a much better pick up. both are just opinions......neither is fact.

7) yes I only want Ainge to sign players 28YO and younger, because I think we are a couple years away yet. I don't see the point in adding players heading into their downside, when we are peaking. Just an opinion on where we are overall as a team.


finally this board is not about trying to convince others that your opinion is the right or only one, at least to me. Unlike the Boston.com forum, we ( if I may use we after such a short time)seem to be a place where we discuss more than argue. I think that's why most of us come here instead.

so please don't take this post as any kind of personal challenge to your opinions. we can disagree and that's OK. But my opinions are just that, opinions and not facts. just as yours are.

RAMBONE,

First glad you have joined us. Second you do a lot of analysis which is really great. Between you, Bob, Sam and others , it really provides a unique setting to be able to inform and debate in the arena of ideas.

The only person I would not trade for is Cousins . Carl had time to assess him this season and if Sac selects a center at #6 when they have a 24 old center, that tells me - Buyer Be Ware! You'll just get the same from him. Half the time he'll be in the back court arguing calls instead of running up court on a fast break. No thank you!

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It's all good kdp, and nice post. I can get a little too passionate about the Celtics sometimes. In fact, there's probably a bit of a personality flaw underneath it. But please note that I said WCS would probably start at PF for us as a rookie, which isn't exactly the same thing as declaring him a bust. Far from it.

For the sake of discussion, I have a few more thoughts on WCS vs Dakari. It looks like Dakari lost about 5 mpg to WCS. Dakari played about 15 mpg, Towns about 20, and WCS about 25. Whenever Dakari and WCS were on the court together, Dakari was the center. So that means WCS played about 5 mpg at center, but was indeed taking those minutes from Dakari.
WCS is also two full years older than Dakari, even though there's only a one grade difference. Dakari is the age of a regular college freshman, and the same age WCS was as a freshman.
Dakari has that in common with Christian Wood, another kid who went to college a year early, who is now slept on a bit because he's a sophomore.

It's not entirely relevant, but it's also worth mentioning that Dakari started over Joel Embiid in high school. Embiid was 1.5 years older than Dakari. Now, Embiid was of course very new to the game, but it's still (barely) worth mentioning. Embiid had no idea that he would be in the NBA two years later, never mind as a top 3 pick, and didn't even think he'd be good in college, all because he was outplayed and couldn't get many minutes over the barely 17 Dakari. Dakari is the same age as Karl Anthony Towns, the freshman with all the untapped potential.

It's also worth noting that last year, when Kentucky had an elite power forward in Julius Randle, that the barely 18 year old Dakari Johnson stole the starting center position from WCS, who again, was two years older and a sophomore.
It was Dakari who started every game from Feb on, when Kentucky won the SEC tournament and went all the way to the National Championship, coming up short by 6 points to Connecticut. WCS, as a bench player, got hurt in the Sweet 16 game but it didn't stop them from getting to the Championship and almost winning it.

This quote from last summer:

Johnson was Kentucky's starting center from February on last season, and he contrasted Cauley-Stein despite both measuring at an even 7'0. Johnson is 265 pounds and a more traditional center with advanced low-post moves. He's also an elite offensive rebounder; had he played in enough of Kentucky's available minutes to qualify, his 17.0 offensive rebounding percentage would have been fifth in Division I.

We're fortunate to have Kentucky's pre-seaon Combine that they run for scouts. The players are measured and they do some vertical leap testing as well.

Towns 6'10.25" w/o shoes
WCS 6'11.25" w/o shoes
Dakari 6'11.25" w/o shoes

Wingspan:
Towns 7'3.25"
WCS 7'2"
Dakari 7'0.25"

Standing reach:
Towns 9'1"
WCS 9'2"
Dakari 9'1.5"

Standing vert leap, max vert leap:
Towns 29" 36.5"
WCS 31" 37"
Dakari 28.5" 34"

Weight:
Towns 250
WCS 240
Dakari 255

Since Towns and Dakari are both only 19, there's a small chance that those height and wingspan numbers increase ever so slightly. As for WCS, he's already 21, so those measurements are basically what they are.

What's interesting, and a bit concerning, is the fact that WCS measured the exact same 240 lbs one full year earlier. That suggests that his strength developments are already mostly complete. He gained 20 lbs two years ago, and hasn't gained a pound since.

Dakari's weight went the other way, as he shed some baby fat to get down to 255. But at 19, he still has plenty of natural strength gains that will happen over the next 2-4 years. Even if those gains are modest, he'll still be about 265 at his same 10.5% body fat, bigger if he loses tone.

WCS's future gains will be limited, though I still think he can get up to 250-255 in a couple/few years, assuming he shows up to the Combine weighing a bit more than 240. Doing so would make him much better suited for full-time center duties, and the slight athletic loss he might suffer from maxing out his frame will be a small price to pay.

Now let's look at their production per 40 minutes:
It's a bit tricky because Dakari and Towns played virtually all of their minutes at center, while WCS played 80% of his minutes at PF. Probably why WCS's blocks per 40 minutes went down from 4.8 to 2.7 this year. Last year, he started at center while Julius Randle played power forward. Up until Dakari took his starting job in Feb.

On second thought, I have other things to do. Here are the stats for all three:

draftexpress(dot)com/profile/Karl-Towns-61831/stats/
draftexpress(dot)com/profile/Willie-Cauley-Stein-6441/stats/
draftexpress(dot)com/profile/Dakari-Johnson-6470/stats/

My point being, it's not even clear that WCS is going to have a better career than Dakari at center, much less worth trading a boatload of assets to move up to get him.

I like Dakari too, he'd be an upgrade over what we got and is a traditional center.

I would agree that the amount of assets to move up into the 5-8 range to get WCS makes it a prohibitive move.

on the other hand, if Turner would fall slightly on draft day AND Ainge likes him I could see a move up with both our firsts into the 12-13 spot to get him.

though my preference is trading for a young vet big man.....easier said than done however.