Three Potential Celtics Breakout Performers

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Three potential Celtics breakout performers
September 2, 2015, 1:00 pm










BOSTON – The climb up towards the NBA mountaintop can be a treacherous journey. It's one with no guarantees along the way.

That’s why the Celtics have to be cautiously optimistic about their growth under Brad Stevens as he heads into his third season on the job.

Thus far, he has been the star of this franchise, which is great when you are a team that’s rebuilding.

Still, to make that jump from being a good team to a really good/elite club, you need players.

And if you can’t go out and sign them, you have to hope and pray to the basketball gods that you can develop them.

That’s the only way the Celtics can realistically build off the momentum of a strong regular season finish that catapulted them into the playoffs last season where they were swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round.

So, who will it be?

That will be among the many subplots for the Celtics this season.

And like any good theatrical production, the Celtics have plenty of bodies they can cast into that breakout performer role.

Here we take a look at three candidates who have shown enough promise to believe that they could indeed emerge as a key player in Boston’s trek towards becoming an NBA power.


MARCUS SMART

Turning his tremendous promise as a player into legit production is well within Smart’s reach for this upcoming season. He missed a few weeks of training this summer due to injured fingers, but it should not deter from what should be a strong sophomore season. For Smart, his growth has to be most noticeable this season in how he impacts the game with the ball in hand as the primary decision-maker for the Celtics. He averaged just 3.1 assists per game, but his 2.3 assists-to-turnover ratio was tops among players on the team all of last season who averaged at least 20 minutes per game. And of the guards returning this season, only Isaiah Thomas (109.2) has a higher offensive rating (103.7). Smart quieted some of his critics by shooting the ball better than expected. He was especially good in catch-and-shoot scenarios where his effective field goal percentage was 53.6 percent. While it’s not in the stratosphere of Stephen Curry (65.5 percent), Klay Thompson (62.9) or Kyle Korver (72.3), it is in the same neighborhood as veteran shooters such as Joe Johnson (55.6) and was better than scorers like Tim Hardaway Jr. (50.5), Arron Afflalo (53.2) and Dirk Nowitzki (52.2) – yeah, Dirk freakin’ Nowitzki!


ISAIAH THOMAS

The way last season ended for the Celtics left a bad taste in the mouth of all the players, especially Isaiah Thomas. He was the team’s best scorer since a mid-season trade from Phoenix. But in the playoffs, he was a dud. You can’t read too much into what players do in the summer, but his play in Seattle’s Pro-Am circuit coupled with his presence in Las Vegas to watch some of his younger teammates play speaks to him being more of a leader this season on and off the court. And while his scoring gets most of the headlines, the 5-foot-9 guard showed this summer he can make some big-time plays defensively against legit NBA talent like this block of a 6-8 Trevor Ariza dunk attempt. And if you look back at his numbers last season with Boston, Thomas did more than just chuck up shots. His assists percentage of 36.0 leads all returning players. In fact, the only guys who had a higher percentage last season that even played for the Celtics were Rajon Rondo (45.eight) and Jameer Nelson (40.7), who were both traded away before Easter. And while Thomas’ ability to score is way ahead of his play defensively, he had a net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating) of plus-7.3 which was tops among all guards and third on the team. Thomas should benefit from a full training camp which should make for a smoother start to the season and with that, an opportunity to be a more efficient scorer.

Of the players who led their teams in scoring last season AND to the playoffs, only four (LaMarcus Aldridge of then-Portland (he now plays for San Antonio), Dallas’ Monta Ellis, Washington’s John Wall and Toronto’s DeMar DeRozan) had a lower effective field goal percentage than Thomas (49.6).


JONAS JEREBKO

The Celtics made a number of under-the-radar signings this summer, but few seem to be overlooked as much as them re-upping with Jonas Jerebko. After being acquired by Detroit last season, Jerebko played well in spurts because, frankly, his playing time with the Celtics came in spurts. But at the end of the season, when all the numbers were crunched, it was obvious that he made a positive impact more often than not. And unlike Isaiah Thomas, who usually made a mark by scoring, or Marcus Smart with his defense, Jerebko did it in a multitude of ways which is evident by him ranking highly in just about every analytical category of value to the Celtics. His defensive rating of 95.1 was tops on the team among players who logged at least 15 minutes per game. Ditto for his overall net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating) of plus-9.5. Only Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller had a higher rebounding percentage than Jerebko (14.0). In addition, his effective field-goal percentage of 50.3 also ranked among the team leaders. There will be so much attention going into this season paid to the newcomers such as David Lee and Amir Johnson as well as a high-profile returner such as Jae Crowder. It affords Jerebko to fly under the radar once again. But if the victories pile up unexpectedly for Boston this season, don’t be surprised if Jerebko’s play becomes a factor in that success.




bob
MY NOTE:  Yeah, Marcus Smart is like Dirk Freaking Nowitski.  Uh huh, sure Blakely.

So, does anybody have anybody else they think will have a break out season?

Some names here, just to start:

David Lee - after his diminished role last year and being in the last year of his contract, he could come on 'like gangbustahs'.
Perry Jones III - it's make-or-break for him.  It's all about focus, about maintaining his motor.  Other than that he is unique on this team.
Jared Sullinger - he's leaner, meaner and in the last year of his contract.  He steps up or he steps down this year.
Kelly Olynyk - another year of experience, another year for the game to slow down a bit for him, another year of hearing his coach and teammates yelling at him to "shoot!"
Tyler Zeller - it's his starting job to lose.  He has a year under his belt with Brad, his defensive rotations will be faster and he's still 7'0".  His elbow jumper will be even better (he shot 53% from the foul line to the top of the key straightaway and also from both elbows).


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my guess is one of the players Danny TRADES for during this season.

I don't see any of the curremt roster players ever being more than complimentary players. No future all league performers here although Lee was in the past.

swish

swish wrote:I don't see any of the curremt roster players ever being more than complimentary players. No future all league performers here although Lee was in the past.

swish

swish,

"Breakout" to me is not the same as All-League.  It means a player that plays much better than his usual.  This is helped by low expectations and poor previous performance.  Someone like James Young could have a "breakout" year by averaging 12ppg, hardly all-league but breakout for him.

We need a go to guy, there is no doubt about it, but marginal improvements in our top 8-10 players and we're in for a nice year just because we're playing better as a team.

Get me up to 48 wins, two years after winning just 25, and I'm feeling pretty good.

Especially when I look at the Sixers and the Bobcats, who have been rebuilding forever.


bob



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Bob

I'll be happy when the Celtic roster includes at least 2 all-league performers whose selection was based on their scoring and/or rebounding skills. I don't think that its going to happen over night so for the time being I'm content to watch as Danny strives to accumulate the chips to repeat the miracle of 2007-08. Personally I would prefer a real bummer of a year and a real high draft pick. Try to win of course, but just lose baby.

swish

Swish,

Using an online dictionary definition...

Breakout.
adjective
1. Characterized by a sudden significant improvement or increase in popularity: a ballplayer having a breakout season; a band with a breakout album.

...I'd have to agree there aren't many currently on the team I would think are capable of a breakout season.  Most of the roster is what it is; a building project stocked with temporary placeholders.  Our guards look like our strength.  Maybe we'll see that dramatic leap forward from among that group.

Smart might be at the top of the pile in that he has shown flashes of a higher level of play, but must stay there consistently.  I think Thomas, though a nice addition, played to the top of his capabilities last year.

Regards