Trade idea: Bradley plus late first pick for Wilson Chandler

One observation I was able to make last night, through the nausea-induced dizziness and blurred vision, was that Crowder and Evan Turner's lack of length can really be exploited by hot shooting small forwards. Crowder and Turner both seem to come up just an inch or two short when contesting the shot, over and over again.

What would we expect from a couple 6'6" guys with poor wingspans?

The only decent length we have at small forward is James Young, who is extremely inexperienced, and Jerebko, who doesn't have good agility for the SF spot.

This roster needs, if not this season then certainly at some point soon, a long defender who can legitimately contest the shot of opposing small forwards, not just consistently come close, but short.

The Nuggets have a shooting guard sized point guard in Mudiay. Mudiay is much better defensively against shooting guards, and much more able to drive by shooting guards than quicker point guards. This is why the Nuggets are starting point guard sized shooting guard Gary Harris next to him.

Well guess who else is a point guard sized shooting guard, and a clear upgrade over Gary Harris? Avery Bradley. The Nuggets already have a star small forward in Danillo Gallinari, and there have been rumors that one of Gallinari or Chandler have been on the trade market for a while.

I really like Bradley for his intangibles and effort, but I think Terry Rozier would immediately make the same impact or better in the starting lineup next to Smart. That's why they drafted Rozier, actually, because Danny and Brad knew that Smart can't get into the lane at will like IT4 and Rozier can.

Wilson Chandler wouldn't be a superstar of a starting SF, but he'd be at least a slight upgrade over Crowder on both ends of the court, and acquiring him in a trade like this would better balance our roster and improve it at the same time. Same thing for Denver, their starting lineup would instantly improve with Avery Bradley, and getting another first round pick from Boston would also help them in the long term.

Just an idea.

From Grantland a week ago:

35 Crazy Predictions for the 2015-16 NBA Season

22. Denver Finally Cuts Bait on at Least One Veteran

In the past, Denver has asked a ton for Wilson Chandler — two firsts, or one quality young player and a first, per league sources — but it feels inevitable that it’ll come down on that price once it falls hopelessly out of the playoff race. On the flip side, the contract extensions for Chandler and Danilo Gallinari increased their trade value; teams have more cap space than they can spend, and they’d be happy to fill some of it with one of those guys. The most likely outcome is that no deal happens, but that’s boring. Chandler feels gettable, so I’ll go out on that limb.

The Kenneth Faried rumblings, which popped up two years ago, have never really stopped.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/35-crazy-predictions-for-the-2015-16-nba-season/

While I'm always willing to discuss upgrades at any position, my #1 (and #2 and #3 and #4) priority is to get a starting center and/or rim protector.   I'd be willing to reconsider my above priorities for an all-star player.  Chandler is 28 years old Has Wilson Chandler ever been an all-star?  No.  Therefore, I'd vote to keep my powder dry and wait for what we need.


bob


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ditto bob, glad your not in denial that we need a physical shot blocking center....you didn't get the memo about small ball? don't worry KO and Z are gonna carry us. NOT!!!

cowens/oldschool wrote:ditto bob, glad your not in denial that we need a physical shot blocking center....you didn't get the memo about small ball? don't worry KO and Z are gonna carry us. NOT!!!

Cow,

Never said we don't need rim protection, I've been saying that all summer (I believe my exact description of what I wanted, and still want, was a "defensive presence in the paint"). Having said that I'd like to point out, yet again, that Kelly was drafted to be a PF, not a center, and Zeller is a back up center who is starting precisely because our other 7'er, Kelly, is being groomed to be a PF and not a center.


bob


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WAY WAY TOO EARLY TO DO ANYTHING. FIRST 15 GAMES AND THEN DANNY WILL SEE WHAT ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE.

112288

agree that's its way early for any team to be looking at trades. But Rambone is right that Denver is a team likely to move players this year.

as for a NBA center that can play defense...one wonders that IF Ainge/Stevens felt that was a need, why they didn't get Hibbert from Ainges old buddy Bird?


The lakers gave up a whopping SECOND round pick for  a one year rental on him.
Ainge could have easily upped that offer with our many first and second round picks.

the fact that he DIDN'T , says to me that Ainge/Stevens may not see the "classic Center" as a need here.

right or wrong I don't know......I would have much preferred Hibbert than David Lee myself, but Ainge forgot to call me and ask my opinion for some reason.......

I also would have preferred Hibbert over Lee, but I think I understand Danny and Brad's thinking.

Not only is Lee a much better veteran presence than Hibbert, but I think Danny and Brad figure they can just double team guys like Okafor and Cousins and Brook Lopez when they get going offensively.

We have some seriously scrappy smaller guys like Smart and Crowder who can double team a big center and either force a turnover or a quick pass out of the post. And our overall team defense is good enough to generally rotate and rotate back while the opposing center is double teamed.

And then again, a bucket by a center scored over Olynyk or Zeller is still only worth two points, despite the optics and long held opinions by some of us fans.

Just because an opposing center scores 25-30 points on our 250 lb centers, doesn't mean that was the difference in the game. Just look at Al Jefferson's career win loss record, or Brook Lopez's.

We didn't have a dominant rim protector against Jonas Valanciunas the other night, but he still only played 21-22 minutes, and the Raptors were -6 with him on the floor.

Interestingly, the Raptors were also -1 with Demarre Carrol on the floor, even though he hit 4 3 pointers and seemed to have a great game generally.

And the only reason Okafor probably had such a big night against us is because Brad didn't start double teaming him until the second half or something, because he was a rookie and his ability at this level was unknown. Big deal.

Our lack of length at SG and SF were much bigger factors against the Raptors, with Bradley and Crowder and Evan Turner getting scored over by Ross and DeRozen.

Having said that, Wilson Chandler might not be the answer since he is turning 29 this season, and is locked into a 4 year deal. But it still wouldn't surprise me if it happened. 48 minutes of Crowder/Chandler would be pretty sweet, even though this next draft class if filled with stud small forwards and James Young is still developing at a noticeable rate.

Bottom line is outside of Cousins, I do not think there is a center either Danny or Brad like really .............. really bad enough to go after that is is not a protected player.

Hibbert is too lumbering and slow for Brads style of play. That could be a reason they did not pull a trade for him, or Bird did not want to trade within his conference but rather send him west where they would only meet in a meaningful game in the finals.

112288

If nobody is afraid of Zeller and Kelly, then why did we get 38 points in the paint and they only got 34?  When is a rim protector more valuable than other times?  When your perimeter defense isn't keeping penetrators out.  If your perimeter defense is good then mobile players, especially guards and wings but also mobile bigs, are valuable because they switch well on pick-and-rolls and pick-and-pops and can close out on 3pt shooters quickly.  Hibbert is fine if he is not being asked to move.  If the shooters come to him he can do the job but if he has to move to them he's useless.  

Brad utilizes a motion offense and defense.  Have you not noticed how much switching is being done by us at the perimeter?  It doesn't matter who gets the ball, the defender switching onto him can handle him.  It doesn't matter if it's Jerebko or Jae or Turner or one of the guards.  Even Sully was caught out there at Land's End with a guard against Toronto and handled pretty well.  How do you think Hibbert would do out there where the air is thin?  He'd get burned so badly he'd make Burning Man look like a smoking smudge.  In the Lakers' game against the Kings, Hibbert played 21 minutes.  He had 10 points and 5 rebounds and 4 fouls.  Cousins played 28 minutes and had 21 points, 11 boards and 3 fouls.  WCS, who started at center, played 30 minutes (more than Hibbert) and had 17 points on 7-8, 9 rebounds and 5 blocks.  In other words, a rookie playing his second NBA game thoroughly outplayed Roy Hibbert.  Sacramento had a 40 point first quarter.  40.  If a rim protector like Hibbert is so valuable, then how come the Kings had a 40 point quarter and how come, if a rim protector like Hibbert is so valuable, he could have 5 blocks and the Lakers still lose?  It's because there's a lot more to defense than shot blocking.  In fact, if you block the ball out of bounds all you've done is given them the ball back and the chance to reset their offense.

In the Lakers' first game, against Minny, Towns had 14 points on 6-10 and 12 rebounds.  Hibbert had 12 points, 10-10 from the line but 1-4 from the field, and 2 blocks.  And the Lakers lost.

If your perimeter defense is good you don't need rim protection so much as you need rebounding.  Force them to take shots from the outside and the fg percentages go down.  The fg percentages go down, more rebounds to be had.  Shot blockers are the bail out last option of poor perimeter defenders.  Is it nice to have one?  Would it be nice for us to have one?  Sure, but as long as we play good perimeter defense it isn't the glaring weakness it would be in other teams.  Keep them out, box them out, rebound and run.


bob


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If your perimeter defense is good you don't need rim protection so much as you need rebounding.

And even rebounding isn't an absolute necessity if you're scoring the ball more efficiently than the other team. The LeBron Heat teams were a bad rebounding team, but they won with great perimeter defense and efficient shooting.

A rebound isn't worth a single point. It can lead to points, but the ball still has to go in the basket.

Against the Raps Zeller scored at a per 36 minute rate of 21.8 points. Olynyk scored at a 23.9 pp36 minutes rate. Amir Johnson at 20.9 pp36.

That's big-time offensive production from our 3 centers.
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/?ls=iref:nba:gnav#!/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Per36&LastNGames=1&sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1

There's different ways to be a good center, and rebounding is just one of them. And usually being a dominant rebounder isn't even enough to make somebody a good/great center.

rambone wrote:

If your perimeter defense is good you don't need rim protection so much as you need rebounding.

And even rebounding isn't an absolute necessity if you're scoring the ball more efficiently than the other team. The LeBron Heat teams were a bad rebounding team, but they won with great perimeter defense and efficient shooting.

A rebound isn't worth a single point. It can lead to points, but the ball still has to go in the basket.

Against the Raps Zeller scored at a per 36 minute rate of 21.8 points. Olynyk scored at a 23.9 pp36 minutes rate. Amir Johnson at 20.9 pp36.

That's big-time offensive production from our 3 centers.
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/?ls=iref:nba:gnav#!/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Per36&LastNGames=1&sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1

There's different ways to be a good center, and rebounding is just one of them. And usually being a dominant rebounder isn't even enough to make somebody a good/great center.

rambone,

Sorry, but I have to disagree with you here.  

If you are not a good rebounding team, shot blocking or no shot blocking, then you are going to be giving up a lot of second chance points, second chance points scored near the rim and often with a foul as there is a lot of grabbing and pushing and shoving to get the ball.  If you miss every perimeter fga but get every offensive rebound you will end up with points one way or another.  If you are a poor defensive rebounding team, well, we saw that during the 25-win year, didn't we?  We just got croaked because no matter what kind of bad shot we were able to force them into often turned into another shot for them.  You have to secure the ball on your end.  If you don't, you can't run.  No ball, no fast breaks.  Offensive rebounding gets you points on putbacks or offensive resets.  Even if you don't get the ball, if you effectively compete for it, get a fingernail on it, you can disrupt their transition to offense and that gives your defense a chance to set up and become more effective.

Uptempo?  Yes, love it.  Paul Westphal-style run-and-gun, where they are just as happy taking the ball out of the bottom of the net as they are off the boards?  NO.  Force them to take and hit 20+ footers.  You do that by not letting them inside so they can take 5'ers and by reducing their transition offense opportunities.  When they miss the lower percentage shot you must make them pay for that by securing the ball.

Where we (you, me and Cowens) might be talking past each other, a bit, is that you two are talking specifically about the value of good rebounding centers.  I'm calling for effective rebounding, however.  If Kelly and Zeller just box their men out and Turner or Bradley or fill_in_the_blank goes and gets the ball off the back board, that's ok with me.  Our fast break opportunities would be more numerous if our guards could release and start up court because our bigs like Kelly and Zeller were getting the rebound with confidence but it's not that big a deal.  If Zeller boxes out Player X and then, as soon as someone gets the ball, sprints up court and beats Player X down the floor for a lay up or dunk, that works just as well as if Zeller got the board and the guard released.  Maybe even better, since a 7'er on a fast break finish is about as good as you can want. That strategy becomes much less effective with slower centers like Hibbert. If he is boxing his man out, rather than rebounding and quickly outlet passing it, he's not beating anybody down court because he's slower than snails shitting in winter.


bob



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We all talk about a lot of statistics and what they translate out to in various parts of the offense or defense part of the games.  But stats are ok but they are not the end of all when sizing up a team and its players.

I come from a different camp when it comes to breaking down a team and its effectiveness against other teams.  Simply put, I look at how teams (The Celtics) are able to adapt to any team they are facing, and how they are able to adapt  and circumvent what their opponents are giving them offensively or defensively.

Can they exploit and breakdown an opponents game strategy or what teams like to do generally to their (Celtics) advantage etc etc.

Again stats are a misleading indicator as far as I am concerned, they are only a by product of how your team adapts to the strengths or game plan of your opponent rather then can the Celtics jam their strengths down another teams throat.

112288

I can see trading Bradley and some of the many draft picks for a small forward who can score, but I am not sure that Chandler (and his contract) is what I think that I would give up Bradley for.

Getting an offensively proficient small forward would also allow Crowder to go back to spearheading the defense on the second unit.

The 2013 Heat were dead last in rebounding and won the Championship for the second year in a row. And they won 66 games in the regular season.

In 2012 they were 21st in rebounding on their way to the title.

In '13-'14 they were dead last again and won 54 games and got to the Finals. The Champion Spurs were 12th in rebounds.

Last year the Hawks were 28th in rebounding, won 60 games, and got to the ECF. The Warriors were 8th in rebounds.

In 2011 the top rebounding team was the Timberwolves, and they won 17 games. The Kings were 4th in rebounds and won 24 games. The Heat (10th) lost to the Mavs (12th) in the Finals that year.
The Celtics were 29th in rebounds that year but won 56 games.

Rebounding is important, but nowhere near as important as efficient scoring. If you just took the last four Champions, you'd think there was an inverse correlation between rebounding and winning championships.

The game is scored by points, not rebounds, and as such, placing primary importance on a secondary statistic is somewhat misguided at best.

Olynyk led the team last year in +/- without being a good rebounder, and Chris Bosh similarly excelled without being a good rebounder. Bosh and Olynyk on the court usually means very high offensive efficiency, which is way more important than rebounding, blocked shots, steals, assists, or any other secondary statistic.

Here's the sortable team stats from nba.com. You can just change the year and sort by rebounds

http://stats.nba.com/league/team/?ls=iref:nba:gnav#!/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=REB&dir=1

rambone wrote:I also would have preferred Hibbert over Lee, but I think I understand Danny and Brad's thinking.

Not only is Lee a much better veteran presence than Hibbert, but I think Danny and Brad figure they can just double team guys like Okafor and Cousins and Brook Lopez when they get going offensively.

We have some seriously scrappy smaller guys like Smart and Crowder who can double team a big center and either force a turnover or a quick pass out of the post. And our overall team defense is good enough to generally rotate and rotate back while the opposing center is double teamed.

And then again, a bucket by a center scored over Olynyk or Zeller is still only worth two points, despite the optics and long held opinions by some of us fans.

Just because an opposing center scores 25-30 points on our 250 lb centers, doesn't mean that was the difference in the game. Just look at Al Jefferson's career win loss record, or Brook Lopez's.

We didn't have a dominant rim protector against Jonas Valanciunas the other night, but he still only played 21-22 minutes, and the Raptors were -6 with him on the floor.

Interestingly, the Raptors were also -1 with Demarre Carrol on the floor, even though he hit 4 3 pointers and seemed to have a great game generally.

And the only reason Okafor probably had such a big night against us is because Brad didn't start double teaming him until the second half or something, because he was a rookie and his ability at this level was unknown. Big deal.

Our lack of length at SG and SF were much bigger factors against the Raptors, with Bradley and Crowder and Evan Turner getting scored over by Ross and DeRozen.

Having said that, Wilson Chandler might not be the answer since he is turning 29 this season, and is locked into a 4 year deal. But it still wouldn't surprise me if it happened. 48 minutes of Crowder/Chandler would be pretty sweet, even though this next draft class if filled with stud small forwards and James Young is still developing at a noticeable rate.

sorry I prefer to have my bigs handle their business alone one on one, without any help, thats the key to a truly great suffocating defense.

I agree that we could upgrade the SF position but that has nothing to do with the length of Crowder and Turner.

And if a move was made to upgrade getting a Wilson Chandler would not be an upgrade over what we already have.


There are so many parts of the game that contribute to winning.  Rebounding is one of them.


I think we should not overlook what leads to rebounding the basketball.  A poor defensive team may not get as many rebounds because the other team is scoring efficiently.  A good offensive team may not get as many offensive rebounding opportunities if they are hitting their shots.  A  good defensive team should have more opportunities to rebound on the defensive glass.  A poor offensive team that has problems scoring may be able to lesson the impact by banging the offensive glass.  Rebounding is still an essential element because you cannot score if you cannot rebound the basketball.  It is not the most important thing but strong rebounding will enhance the ability of a team to win provided other variables are present.

dboss