Gobert injury hurts the Celtics

Utah's Rudy Gobert has a Grade II MCL sprain, expected to miss "4 to 7 weeks" if his injury is similar to the same one several other players suffered recently and the Jazz are one of the teams Boston needs to finish ahead of Dallas if the Celts are to get another lottery pick by owning the Mavs (protected top 7) pick this year.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/rudy-gobert-s-mcl-strain-could-deal-another-major-blow-to-jazz-s-playoff-hopes-020628392.html

Dallas is currently 11-8 and three of these four teams need to finish ahead of them for the Mavs to miss the playoffs: Utah, Phoenix, Minnesota and Houston. That's presuming Golden State, San Antonio, OKC, Memphis and the Clippers all finish ahead of Dallas (a reasonable expectation). If Utah is severely affected by Gobert's possible lengthy absence, then Phoenix (who lost to Detroit tonight to fall three games behind Dallas), Minnesota and Houston all need to start playing better and leapfrog Dallas. And those other five need to stay ahead of them. They all are, except for the Clippers who are a half game behind and will be missing Chris Paul for at least two games.

I, for one, expected Dallas to play significantly worse than they are playing now after DeAndre Jordan spurned them and returned to the Clippers. At 11-8 and currently 5th in the West, they have surptised me. Would love for the Mavs to start losing games in bunches.

Current playoff standings:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/standings/?alias=conference&season=

It's not too soon to expect Portland, Sacramento, Denver, New Orleans and the Lakers to all have worse records than Dallas at season's end, based on watching them so far. The only one of those five teams that has a shot at being better than the Mavs is New Orleans, who were expected to make the playoffs this year but are a woeful 4-15 tonight after losing to Houston and are now 7 full games behind Dallas with 63 games to go. Can the Pelicans pass Dallas in that time frame being that far behind them already? Possibly, but it won't be easy. They would have to right their leaky ship soon.

Hard to believe that an injury to Rudy Gobert could hurt Boston's chance of having an additional lottery pick next year. But it certainly could.

steve

The way I read it is that Dallas keeps the pick if they finish 7th or worse and the Celtics get it if the Mavs finish 8th or better. Therefore it would help the Celts if the Jazz have a worse record than the Mavs. But bare in mind I'm wrong at least 75% of the time.

swish

swish wrote:steve

The way I read it is that Dallas keeps the pick if they finish 7th or worse and the Celtics get it if the Mavs finish 8th or better. Therefore it would help the Celts if the Jazz have a worse record than the Mavs.  But bare in mind I'm wrong at least 75% of the time.

swish

We need a bunch of teams to pass Dallas so they drop into the 8-14 (lottery) range and Utah is one of them. It doesn't help us if Utah finishes below Dallas. It makes it more difficult for Dallas to drop if Utah stays below them.

swish wrote:steve

The way I read it is that Dallas keeps the pick if they finish 7th or worse and the Celtics get it if the Mavs finish 8th or better. Therefore it would help the Celts if the Jazz have a worse record than the Mavs.  But bare in mind I'm wrong at least 75% of the time.

swish

What you're missing is there are ALREADY seven teams (the Nets, Philly, Portland, Denver, Sacramento, New Orleans and the Lakers) that will most probably finish with a worse record than Dallas (maybe Milwaukee too), which would get us the Mavs' pick.  We don't need Utah to be one of them.  We currently need four teams in the West to pass Dallas (I was hoping one of them would be Utah) so the Mavs miss the playoffs without getting a top 7 pick (which they won't) so we get another lottery pick.

Get it?

I think we are viewing the issue from different perspectives. You want them to fall in the 8-14 range to be eligible for the lottery  while I'm pulling for them to just finish at least 8th to insure that we get their pick. With about 62 games remaining we have a long way to go before we find out how it all plays out. I have the worlds worst Crystal Ball so I'll pass when it comes to picking the final order of finish for this season. I'll be real happy if the Mavs do not have one of the 7 worst records.
swish

swish wrote:I think we are viewing the issue from different perspectives. You want them to fall in the 8-14 range to be eligible for the lottery  while I'm pulling for them to just finish at least 8th to insure that we get their pick. With about 62 games remaining we have a long way to go before we find out how it all plays out. I have the worlds worst Crystal Ball so I'll pass when it comes to picking the final order of finish for this season. I'll be real happy if the Mavs do not have one of the 7 worst records.
swish

Even though the season is only 25% done, based on performance so far it is abundantly clear that Dallas will not be one of the worst 7 teams in the league. So you can be real happy NOW. What we need is for them to miss the playoffs so we get another lottery pick. If Utah can pass them (or four other teams in the West do), that will happen.

I think the pick will be traded long before draft time myself.

kdp59 wrote:I think the pick will be traded long before draft time myself.

Less likely if it looks like it might be a lottery pick.

Dirk has been carrying them, last year he dropped off in production alot in the second half, I think at his age it will/could happen again. Chandler Parsons has been a bust, very unworthy of such a big contract.....any team lead by D Will can go on a nice losing streak.

Having 4 teams pass the Mavs and moving them up to the 14th pick would be nice simply because it figures to be a better pick.  The fact that the Mavs would then be in the lottery does not exactly send chills up and down my spine.  Given the 14th worse record the Mavs chances of finishing with the number 1 pick would be .005 , the number 2 pick .006 and the number 3 pick .007. Having the number 8 pick going into the lottery ( the best scenario for the Mavs-Celts ) would only result in a .028 shot at the number 1 pick , .033 at the number 2 pick and .039 at the number 3 pick.  The team with the worst record only has a .250 chance of getting the number 1 pick.  Since the modern lottery system was first used in 1994 the best team to win the number 1 pick finished the season with the 9th worst record.

swish

We could always go for 3 lotto picks..


 Mebbe Utah could use sully in exchange for a future first?

 We got a lot of guys on their last year of their contract that we could offer to the west in exchange for future firsts and expiring scrubs...

  We could end up with 3 lotto picks and possibly cap space for 2 max deals  next year..

 I'd do it in a heartbeat