Evan More, or a Little Less?

http://clnsradio.com/boston-celtics-news/item/13125-evan-more-or-a-little-less



Evan More, or a Little Less?


Written by  Nicholas S'cento






Evan More, or a Little Less?




Much has been made of swingman Evan Turner's role on this season's muddled Boston Celtics roster.

Much has been made of swingman Evan Turner's role on this season's muddled Boston

Celtics roster. A polarizing player even before his signing by the Celtics two offseasons

ago, many fans have grown to appreciate Turner's versatile skillset and his ability to play

three positions, including running the point in the half-court game while filling up stat

sheets with assists and rebounds both off the bench and as a starter (Turner's current

season averages are 9.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists and one steal in 27 minutes per

game). Detractors, however, despise his patience in the half-court game, accusing him of

"ball-pounding" and holding onto the ball too long while looking for the perfect pass.

They (justifiably) set their hair on fire every time Turner launches a shot from downtown

where he averages a horrifying 15.5% on threes.





There have been any number of statistical dissections of this constantly changing Celtics

rotation, including specific analyses of the impact Evan Turner has had on the team, but

an intriguing set of statistics gauging the impact of Turner's playing time on the success

(and failures) of the Boston Celtics recently caught my eye in a social media discussion

group. The statistics purported to measure the impact of the number of minutes Turner

plays per game on total team wins and losses, claiming the more minutes Turner plays,

the worse the Celtics play, and point to the team's better overall winning percentage when

Turner plays fewer minutes.





However raw wins and losses only tell half the story; the other half, obviously, is WHO

the wins and losses were against.





While the original statistical analysis featured slightly more depth in comparing multiple

increments of playing time, the median increment was 24 minutes (two quarters) of game

time played, so we'll use that as the baseline for this analysis for the sake of brevity.



According to statistics from basketball-reference.com, the Celtics are 8-5 (.615) when

Evan Turner plays FEWER than 24 minutes a game compared to 14-14 (.500) when he

plays 24 minutes or more. On their face the statistics support the claim that the Celtics'

winning percentage is in fact better when Turner plays fewer than 24 minutes. But does

less Evan really equal more quality play?





Let's look at the other half of the equation: who these wins and losses were against.



In the 13 games in which Evan Turner played FEWER than 24 minutes, the Celtics had

wins over PHI, HOU, WAS, NOP, MIN, CHO, DET, IND and losses to SAS, IND, DAL,

ORL, MEM.





In the 28 games in which Turner played MORE than 24 minutes, the Celtics had wins

over WAS, MIL, ATL, OKC, BKN (x2), PHI, MIA, SAC, CHI, CHO, NYK, PHX, WAS

and losses to TOR, IND, BKN (x2), ATL (x2), SAS, GSW, NYK, CHI, DET, LAL,

DET, CLE.





Even a brief glance at these lists should provide a hint as to why the opponents and their

records are so important. The eight teams the Celtics defeated with "Less Evan" on the

court (<24 min.) had a combined record of 92-190 (.326), with the biggest win coming

over current Eastern Conference 6th seed Indiana (22-18). The five losses came to teams

with a combined record of 123-80 (.605), including a loss to Western Conference

powerhouse San Antonio.





By comparison, the 14 teams the Celtics defeated with "More Evan" (24 min. +) had a

record of 220-289 (.432), with their biggest wins coming over the current #3 seeds in

each conference: Chicago (23-16) and Oklahoma City (29-12). Their losses came to

teams with a combined 278-189 (.595) record, including San Antonio (35-6) and an

overtime thriller to a record-breaking Golden State Warriors (37-4) team that, at the time,

hadn't lost a game all season.





As is evident by a deeper look at the record, simple Win/Loss counts don't tell the whole

story. The Celtics may have a better record with "Less Turner," but those wins came

against extremely bad opponents. By contrast, the wins achieved with "More Turner"

came against opponents with much stronger records. The losses, however, came against

opponents with virtually identical winning percentages.





What can Celtics fans glean from this comparison between games with "More" or "Less"

Turner? For one, it seems Coach Brad Stevens still prefers to rely on "More Turner"

when playing higher quality opponents, and that reliance has resulted in the Celtics'

biggest wins of the season. The hard push, frenetic, run-and-gun style of basketball the

Celtics play with Isaiah Thomas starting at point is effective for a young team with no

bonafide superstars to jump to early leads against most teams during the regular season,

but when the game slows down against elite teams heading into the playoffs, Turner's

half-court ball handling and passing becomes more critical to the team's success. We saw

this during the second half of last season during the Celtics' frantic playoff push where

Turner was the primary ball handler in the starting lineup. We've also seen it this season

as well. At points when the rest of the team seemed lost in the half-court game, failing to

move the ball or move without the ball, hurling rushed and/or contested perimeter shots,

Evan Turner kept the team in the game by driving to the hole at will, scoring easy buckets

and drawing fouls.





Most importantly, as fans we should understand that the team's successes and failures

can't simply be placed on the shoulders of one or two players. Basketball is a team game,

and as this emerging young Celtics team finds itself battling for a playoff spot down the

stretch, the versatility of Turner's game combined with his ability to fill whatever role

Coach Stevens asks of him on any given night (and there have been many, from ball-

handling starter to off-ball second unit wing) gives this team the ability to adapt, adjust,

and compensate for the deficiencies in the games of the Celtics' talented yet oftentimes

incomplete young players as they continue to learn and develop.





Evaluating individual players is never as easy as looking at raw wins and losses and

attributing them to the amount of playing time those individual players received during

those games. It also requires looking at the opponents and, even deeper, the matchups and

game planning orchestrated by Coach Stevens. Evan Turner can score in bunches when

given the green light, but he is not going to be asked or expected to score the bulk of the

team's points on any given night. He's simply going to be asked to facilitate, to fill a role,

one that changes depending on opponents and matchups.





Turner is certainly not a perfect player, but he has been the player Coach Stevens has

asked him to be since he arrived in Boston, and the Win/Loss column is more a reflection

of Stevens' adjustments and game-planning to specific matchups than the amount of any

one individual's playing time.





The question shouldn't be "Evan more or a little less?" It should be what did coach ask

his players to do each game, and when it comes adapting to the complex game-planning

and shuffling rotations of a coach like Brad Stevens, few players have the versatility to

get it done like the NBA's "Mr. Average."



bob


.

I like Turner when taking an overall view of his skills and his contributions.  He always plays hard, has improved very much on defense since arriving, has not complained about being a substitute player, and exhibits pretty good composure in close games.

If there is one thing that bothers me (and probably everyone else as well) is why does he shoot any three point shots even if left wide open when he misses so many?  

I think that if I were the head coach, Turner would have a "make the first, you can shoot another" shooting cap on his threes.  Then if he made one and missed the next one the rule would go right back to "make one, you can shoot another" all over again.  This would do a lot to either keep his three point attempts down or (better still) make a much better percentage.  No way could he end any game with 1 for 5 (or more) or 0 for 3 or 0 for 4 three point stat line with this theory.  Pretty basic, if you are hot tonight you can keep shooting and if you are not hot tonight either drive to the hoop or pass the ball rather than keep shooting threes and missing them.