Once again, Danny Ainge has Celtics in position to reshape franchise

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/writer/ken-berger/25456936/once-again-danny-ainge-has-celtics-in-position-to-reshape-franchise






January 21, 2016 1:19 pm ET



It's easy to forget now, but in 2007, Danny Ainge was in danger of becoming another statistic. Not an advanced one, mind you. This one is the simplest of metrics: NBA executives who, for one reason or another, get fired.

Usually the reason is losing, and that's what the Celtics were doing in 2006-07. They won 24 games that season, the third straight season of declining win totals under Ainge and coach Doc Rivers.

Several times during those lean years for the Celtics, Ainge contemplated firing Rivers, but stayed the course. The rest, as they say, is history.

The Celtics had just about bottomed out, but Ainge had assembled an arsenal of contracts and a premium draft pick (No. 5 in 2007) that put him in position for one last shot at a major roster overhaul. And on draft night in 2007, voila, the first salvo: Ainge acquired Ray Allen and the draft rights to Glen Davis from the Seattle SuperSonics in a deal that sent fifth overall pick Jeff Green to Seattle, along with Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and a 2008 second-round pick.

Before summer was over, Ainge struck again, working out a deal with former teammate Kevin McHale, then in charge of the Minnesota Timberwolves, for Kevin Garnett. So in the span of a month, the Celtics went from woebegone to championship contenders -- and, in fact, followed through on that promise by raising banner No. 17 to the rafters at TD Garden in 2008.

Nearly a decade later, the key figures of the Celtics' Big Three era have scattered. McHale is just another unemployed coach, having been fired by the Rockets earlier this season. Garnett is back in Minnesota, giving whatever he has left to the Timberwolves' cornerstones Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Paul Pierce and Rivers are in Los Angeles with the Clippers, trying to replicate their Boston success. Rajon Rondo, who eventually transformed the Celtics' core into a Big Four, is trying to resurrect his career and reputation in Sacramento. Allen, the most prolific 3-point shooter in NBA history, is retired.

Everyone is gone, that is, except Ainge, who once again finds himself in the position of plotting a move or series of moves that could alter the arc of the Celtics' proud franchise.

"I think we're in a better position than we were [in 2007], but you still have to have the good fortune of getting Ray and K.G.," Ainge told CBS Sports. "You need some breaks, but you also need to create some breaks."

The Big Three era began to unwind when Allen left Boston for Miami in 2012. The following summer, Rivers negotiated his exit for the dual coach-president job with the Clippers. Ainge found himself on the other end of a home-run swing, sending Garnett and Pierce to Brooklyn for a haul of first-round picks that, one way or another, will be the key to the next incarnation of the Celtics.

The Nets had their fun and spent zillions of Mikhail Prokhorov's money, and all it yielded them was one lousy trip to the second round. The organization is now in disarray.

The Celtics? Despite having at most one All-Star on the roster -- Isaiah Thomas -- Boston is 22-21 and is one of seven teams separated by only 2½ games in the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff race.

"I love watching our team play," Ainge said. "I love the young kids and the character of our team. It's been a joy and it hasn't been drudgery. As we try and go forward, whether we are or are not a championship contender, it's still a fun, entertaining, gritty team to watch."

What has to be just as enjoyable for Ainge to study is the list of draft picks he still has coming to him from the teardown of the Big Three: unprotected first-round picks from Brooklyn in 2016 and '18, and the right to swap with the Nets in 2017. All three figure to yield top-10, perhaps even top-five picks.

Ainge could wait until that harvest comes in, but by the time it does, the Celtics' last championship will be more than a decade old. For an organization that has won as much as the Celtics have, that's a long time to wait.

"It's hard to get to the top of the mountain," Ainge said. "There are no guarantees, no matter how you go about it."

What Ainge has done after the unraveling of the Big Three era is the rarest of feats: He has managed to put the team in a rebuilding posture, accumulate significant draft assets and remain competitive at the same time. He has proved that, unlike the Philadelphia 76ers, for example, you don't have to put a god-awful product on the floor in order to rebuild.

"I don't think that any of us feel that this is our franchise," Ainge said. "This is the city of Boston's franchise with a great, rich tradition and history. We have a very, very loyal fan base. There's a lot of things to consider. When you bring players in and try and give them the best chance to win, it takes a toll on everybody.

"We just haven't been willing to [tank], except when we were forced to do that with injuries and other circumstances in '06-07," he said. "It doesn't mean that the way that we're doing it is the best, and it doesn't mean other teams aren't doing it the best way for them. We're all trying to figure this out in sort of a new era, and so I'm curious to see how it's all going to work out. I'm curious to see how much success we have and other teams as well."

What Ainge has now, besides a competitive team that no Celtics fan should be ashamed of, is what any forward-thinking executive has: options.

He could stand pat with a roster that could very well find its way into the playoffs, then use the future picks from the Nets as trade bait come draft time. Or he could try to poach Brook Lopez from the Nets before the deadline, adding one more indignity to the unraveling of Brooklyn's failed bid to assemble a champion out of the Celtics' remains.

The Kings have been consistent in their posture that they're not trading DeMarcus Cousins, but the reality is they're always one blowup away. Ainge is positioned as well as anyone to make an offer that Vlade Divac couldn't refuse.

There's the potential of getting veteran help around the margins, such as a dependable defender and 3-point shooter like Jared Dudley.

As always, Ainge will look at everything. Half the battle in pulling off a franchise-shaping trade (or two) is being prepared to do so. He knows that from experience.




Boston may or may not make a franchise-altering trade, but Danny Ainge has the assets to do so. (USATSI)



bob
MY NOTE:  THANK YOU, DANNY, for NOT trading with Doc for Josh Smith. Interesting, too, that he says we are in "a new era". He saw that years ago, when he traded for the heartless (in more ways than one) Jeff Green, but he saw that the future was the uber-athletic greyhound wing and not in Land of the Dinosaurs. He wasn't the only one to be suckered in for that fool's gold. Memphis took the dangled bait as well. At least in Danny's case one could argue that OKC had a legit need for a big center like Perk, ergo their interest, and Green was wasting his talents on a team with Durantula and the up-and-coming Ibaka. In Memphis' case, they should have been able to see he was getting every possible opportunity in Boston and he still had a habit of disappearing.


.

Mucho praise is due Brad. He has adopted the current line of thinking with his emphasis on the 3 ball. The Celtics rank 7th on 3 point field goal attempts and while they are a miserable 26th in 3 point shooting percentage take comfort that at least the team is well indoctrinated in this style of play. Now its Danny's responsibility to get the elite shooters. And as far as defending the 3 point shot the Celtics rank 3rd in field goal percentage. Go get them Danny.

swish

Good article, but without addressing it directly, it brings up something I've thought about recently...

I think it's possible that Danny Ainge's remaining time with the Celtics could conceivably be growing shorter.  And not at a terribly slow pace.

I'm far from bashing Danny; he pulled the franchise out of the dumpster and got us a championship.  It's possible he could do it again, but I don't think it will look anything like the last turnaround and will take much, much longer.  No matter who you are, the modern team owner can wait only so long if they want to keep the fan base engaged and the corporate sponsors willing to pony up.  They want to see progress, or at least something loud and flashy they think is progress.

Past performance, also, can often times lead to unreasonable future expectations.

Danny Ainge has certainly done a great job the past two seasons.  He picked the right coach and has come up with a no-name roster that simply has played beyond any reasonable expectations on its way to providing many more great performances than the most optimistic prediction would allow for.

Like any exec in the league, Danny sometimes gets negative reviews for some part of his game.  No big deal really, it comes with the territory.  The one knock that keeps re-surfacing on D Ainge, is one that can be leveled at nearly any GM; poor draft choices.  Looking at it critically, what GM hasn't passed on a soon-to-be all-star?  It's not that all of Danny's picks have been awful either; Marcus Smart is an outstanding recent example of a player who has contributed already and looks to have even more upside.

I would think, however, that in one way in particular, Danny could easily have himself on the hot seat in the next season or two.  If picks are used rather than traded, and another Rozier is taken over another Grant, for example, I think we could see the pressure applied.

Again, I'm not suggesting any reason Danny needs to go.  In the win now world of professional sports, though, no one gets a break because the talent pool is shallow.  I think it's entirely probable Danny has another season, two at most, to pull a rabbit or two out of the hat.  If the general makeup of the team hasn't changed in that time, and there isn't a light at the end of the tunnel representing some players and a team who look like title contenders from the East, that light might just be from the train that runs Danny over.

It's a tough business.

Yea right

Danny has not drafted anyone of consequence.

I do like the players he drafted but I do not like them that much.

Here is a list of players that I would not have drafted

Sully
Kelly
Young
Smart
Rosier
Hunter

I have NO confidence regarding Danny's ability to draft quality players.

dboss

dboss

Do you have a post with a list of your past Celtic draft selections ?

swish

dboss,

In a very bottom-line way, you make my point.

You're a knowledgeable fan.  There are others like you too.  They buy tickets and merchandise.  Still others like you represent corporate sponsors, and commit bigger dollars.

No GM goes on forever; it's the nature of the business.  After a long dry spell, the '07 - '08 turnaround left everyone wanting more.  Although I don't think it's fair, many point out we got a short window and only one championship before hitting mediocrity again.

The franchise has to remain viable, and that comes from cash flowing into the arena.  The dollars dry up faster than is fair if there isn't something big happening in pretty short order.

The biggest thing we have going for us right now is the truck-load of draft picks.  My thinking is while that's fantastic, I believe it also gives Danny a fairly short rope with which to hang himself.

I'm not saying I like it, but I am suggesting that's just the way it is.  I think your quick response with several examples is not unique among Boston fans, and that's why I would give Danny maybe two more seasons unless something pops.  It doesn't need to be a title, but it has to appear we're moving strongly into contention and not wasting assets.  

A draft like last year's, where the top picks end up in the D league, even though the squad is playing fairly solid ball, could be enough to bring the hangman to the executive suite.

Regards

swish wrote:dboss

 Do you have a post with a list of your past Celtic draft selections ?

swish

I have never had a past present or future draft selection. lol

I suppose I could go back and find posts about my opposition to all of the selections mentioned. I do not expect Danny to hit a home run everytime but his draft selections in terns of batting averages is probably worse than his batting average with the Toronto BlueJays.

I will say however that his 2nd round selection of Jordan Mickey looks really good but if and when Mickey gets to play, that outcome is unknown

It is my opinion that Danny Ainge does not have a keen eye for talent particularly as it relates to team needs. Sometimes his treasure is a hidden gift like when he drafted Avery Bradley to be a point guard that could play defense. I would have to say that Avery Bradley is the only player drafted over the past 5 years that is very good at both ends of the court. And we have yet to draft a player that is a really good one way player on either side of the court.

dboss

dboss wrote:Yea right

Danny has not drafted anyone of consequence.

I do like the players he drafted but I do not like them that much.

Here is a list of players that I would not have drafted

Sully
Kelly
Young
Smart
Rosier
Hunter

I have NO confidence regarding Danny's ability to draft quality players.

dboss

while I do think Danny has a bind spot for big men come draft time..of those picks the ONLY one I would ahv made different at the time was the Rozier pick at #16. I liked Portis there myself.

to me (which is worth nothing of course)

the Sull pick was a good one since he dropped to 21
The Melo pick (which you didn't list) I was OK with at 22 even

Kelly
Young

I liked them both where they were picked

Smart was also BPA to me at #6, to me.
as was Hunter last year at #28.

so I for one cannot say that I disagree much with Dannys picks in the past few years.

if you go back farther I had many more disagreements, so I think form MY perspective the drafting has gotten better than in the past.

NYCelt wrote:dboss,

In a very bottom-line way, you make my point.

You're a knowledgeable fan.  There are others like you too.  They buy tickets and merchandise.  Still others like you represent corporate sponsors, and commit bigger dollars.

No GM goes on forever; it's the nature of the business.  After a long dry spell, the '07 - '08 turnaround left everyone wanting more.  Although I don't think it's fair, many point out we got a short window and only one championship before hitting mediocrity again.

The franchise has to remain viable, and that comes from cash flowing into the arena.  The dollars dry up faster than is fair if there isn't something big happening in pretty short order.

The biggest thing we have going for us right now is the truck-load of draft picks.  My thinking is while that's fantastic, I believe it also gives Danny a fairly short rope with which to hang himself.

I'm not saying I like it, but I am suggesting that's just the way it is.  I think your quick response with several examples is not unique among Boston fans, and that's why I would give Danny maybe two more seasons unless something pops.  It doesn't need to be a title, but it has to appear we're moving strongly into contention and not wasting assets.  

A draft like last year's, where the top picks end up in the D league, even though the squad is playing fairly solid ball, could be enough to bring the hangman to the executive suite.

Regards

NyCelt

If he is not able to either make above average draft selections and/or package picks and players to add an allstar level player he would have squandered a rare opportunity to move the Celtics forward.

Danny added two very good pieces through trades last year in Thomas and Crowder.  Crowder in particular has far exceeded anything I would have expected of him.  I am not sure that the Celtics even considered how good he is.  Danny hit a home run with both of those trades.

Over the summer we kept waiting for a move given our cap space and team needs and nothing much happened.  The team is marginally better this year and in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Our roster is pretty young with limited upside.

I think Marcus Smart has a positive upside while a guy like Sully may have already reached his plateau.  Kelly has some upside but I do not see him as a starter.  Young should be cut or traded because he is a one handed player and the basic skills to handle the basketball is not part of his game.  Just not a lot of upside there given his skill level to do certain things.  Bradley is good but he is not allstar good.  Evan Turner can not make a shot beyond 12 feet and he is very unlikely to ever be able to do that.  He is a wing that cannot make shots so his value will not increase much.  Zeller is not going to get that much better either.  Amir and Lee are on the downside of their careers.  Jonas is a rotation player and is not likely to get much better than what he already is. He is the classic up and down player.  The rookies are questions marks.  While some think that Hunter will be a really good player I think he will not be that good of a shooter as some may think.  Rosier never displayed the PG skills to run an offense in college.  Both him and Hunter are going to get better but it would be hard to imagine that either one of them will break a starting lineup anytime soon.  They look like perfect fodder for throw ins on a trade.  We do not know about Mickey even though he appears to have good all around skills particularly in a rim protection role and running the floor.

This collection of players have excelled mainly because Brad Stevens has done a very good job coaching them up. but they are so very limited given the style that Brad needs for them to play.

If the Celtics are going to become an elite team they still need more talent.  In particular they need guys that can make shots on a consistent basis.  They need strong rebounders and athleticism to get up and down.  

They need some luck in the draft where a franchise level player can be added to the mix and they need for another GM to listen to Danny so that a trade can be made for a player that has high end skills.

The assets to make that happen are there even though the draft provides no guarantees.  



dboss

Don't give up on Ainge still being able to find a scorer this season to give the team a "shot-in-the-arm" for the last 30 games just like he did last year when he got Crowder and Thomas last season.

Although there are not yet many teams willing to admit that they are in the "selling" group, there are still about 10 games for each team to play before the trade deadline arrives.

I believe that it will be a good idea for Ainge to diminish at least some of the huge pile of draft picks he has for the next draft at this time and not wait until June. It will seem that carrying all 8 draft picks for this next draft will really cheapen their value in the summer to the point of possibly having to almost give them away. And, the idea of 'draft and stash' has never been a big part of the team's player development plan.

There is absolutely no way that he can logically draft 8 rookies next June and expect them to have a shot at making the team for next season. Just no room for any more than three (perhaps only two?) rookies next year as I peek out from behind my GM desk.

wideclyde wrote:Don't give up on Ainge still being able to find a scorer this season to give the team a "shot-in-the-arm" for the last 30 games just like he did last year when he got Crowder and Thomas last season.

Although there are not yet many teams willing to admit that they are in the "selling" group, there are still about 10 games for each team to play before the trade deadline arrives.

I believe that it will be a good idea for Ainge to diminish at least some of the huge pile of draft picks he has for the next draft at this time and not wait until June.  It will seem that carrying all 8 draft picks for this next draft will really cheapen their value in the summer to the point of possibly having to almost give them away.  And, the idea of 'draft and stash' has never been a big part of the team's player development plan.

There is absolutely no way that he can logically draft 8 rookies next June and expect them to have a shot at making the team for next season.  Just no room for any more than three (perhaps only two?) rookies next year as I peek out from behind my GM desk.

I certainly agree with you here. But IF no trade involving draft picks is made by the deadline, Danny can still move current draft picks for future ones.

for instance, Danny can use the nets and our own first round picks on rookies to make our roster.

trade the Dallas pick for a future first (either in 2017 or after 2018)
use the Philly second rounder (may be the 31 pick) on a player to make the roster or a draft and stash type player.

trade the other seconds for future second round picks (even IF it requires trading TWO seconds to get one future pick back).

there are usually teams who are looking for picks each draft and if it only cost them a future pick many GM's are happy to make that deal.

When Danny is able to add 2 or more all nba players to the roster is the day that I believe the team will once again become a serious contender. Unlike the 2007-08 season,  the Celtics do not at the present time have an all nba performer like ( Paul Pierce ) on the roster.  Nor do they in my opinion have a player that will in the next couple years achieve that honor. And drafting in the middle of the pack is not likely to land a player who is immediately capable of such lofty status.  So it all comes down to trades and free agency and Danny has a big plus in the current rebuild over the 2007-08 remake - tons of cap space. But if Danny can't get it done via free agency and or trades over the next 2 years look for an extended rebuilt through the draft.  A bunch of under 25 players don't often add up to championship teams.

swish

kdp59 wrote:

wideclyde wrote:Don't give up on Ainge still being able to find a scorer this season to give the team a "shot-in-the-arm" for the last 30 games just like he did last year when he got Crowder and Thomas last season.

Although there are not yet many teams willing to admit that they are in the "selling" group, there are still about 10 games for each team to play before the trade deadline arrives.

I believe that it will be a good idea for Ainge to diminish at least some of the huge pile of draft picks he has for the next draft at this time and not wait until June.  It will seem that carrying all 8 draft picks for this next draft will really cheapen their value in the summer to the point of possibly having to almost give them away.  And, the idea of 'draft and stash' has never been a big part of the team's player development plan.

There is absolutely no way that he can logically draft 8 rookies next June and expect them to have a shot at making the team for next season.  Just no room for any more than three (perhaps only two?) rookies next year as I peek out from behind my GM desk.

I certainly agree with you here. But IF no trade involving draft picks is made by the deadline, Danny can still move current draft picks for future ones.

for instance, Danny can use the nets and our own first round picks on rookies to make our roster.

trade the Dallas pick for a future first (either in 2017 or after 2018)
use the Philly second rounder (may be the 31 pick) on a player to make the roster or a draft and stash type player.

trade the other seconds for future second round picks (even IF it requires trading TWO seconds to get one future pick back).

there are usually teams who are looking for picks each draft and if it only cost them a future pick many GM's are happy to make that deal.

kdp,

You've arrived at the bottom line on the many picks we've accumulated; they're not all of very high value.

This year the Nets and our own first picks are the only ones that might be worth anything.  And ours may be a little too far down the line.  I agree that those should be considered for our own roster first, unless some miraculously good deal can be had (nothing appearing on the horizon as of yet).

I would also go with dealing the Dallas and Philly picks along with anything else we have in the second round.  For the most part, anyone you need to play in the D league isn't ever going to be a big-time player, so stashing bodies there is normally a wasted exercise.  Maybe better to see if you can swap with someone willing to take some second round chances in return for a proven bench player.

The unfortunate and unpredictable part of deals we've made for picks is that we've stumbled into a very weak looking draft this year.  Next year is still too distant to tell.
 
I also wouldn't argue with the strategy Danny tried unsuccessfully to use on obtaining Winslow in the last draft.  There may not be more than 3 or 4 players with the type of game and potential we need this year.  A solid young gun to build around might help in negotiating with a free agent.  That is whenever a free agent worth pursuing hits the market.  No doubt that timing is everything!

Regards

It is interesting that both Crowder and Thomas were 2nd round picks. The Nets pick in the 2nd round is really like a late first round. iT seems that every year some kid gets drafted in the second round and a few years later he is a topm player. I sure hope we can find that type of player too (hope Mickey could exceeed our expectations)

Watched Jalen Brown Saturday and he is a definite NO.

I agree with wideclyde about moving those 2nd rounders now.

Consider that if Boston does nothing before the deadline, there will probably be 3 open roster spots next year.

dboss