All Star Break Check-in (Rambone)

Hey guys,

I'm too crazy and argumentative to ever live up to Sam's civility expectations on a regular basis, which is why I deleted my other account.

But I figured I could at least stop in maybe every 4 months and give my thoughts and my I-told-you-sos. I still read this forum most every day, so keep up the good work!

I may have been obsessive, and obnoxious about Kelly Olynyk, the awesome state of the Celtics, and advanced stats, but you can't say I was inaccurate.

If you think Olynyk is playing much better than last year, I'd just like to note that his advanced stats show he's picking up right where he left off last year. Except for 3 pt%.

Brad Stevens' refusal to play Olynyk big minutes early in the season drove me bonkers, and I think we all know by now that it likely cost us a handful of games.

While I predicted 55 wins for this team this year, we'll likely win 50-52 games because of that slow start with Zeller and Lee as our starting frontcourt. Just like two years ago when Brad made Avery Bradley his starting point guard to start the year and we opened 0-4 before Stevens finally started Jordan Crawford.

I don't have the stats in front of me, but I think we've all seen the stats that show the Celtics win almost every game that KO gets more than 25 minutes, and our record is atrocious when Olynyk plays 15 minutes or less. Something like that.

My thoughts on the matter:
Brad Stevens froze up in his first NBA playoff series. Rather than stick with Olynyk, who was a top 2 reason the Celtics got into the playoffs in the first place, Stevens froze up and benched Olynyk in the playoffs because he lost too many rebounds.

Fast forward to a few months later, and offensive rebounding is down dramatically across the league, Mozgov is glued to the bench in Cleveland, and the Cavs just decided that they are going to go small-ball and uptempo under their new coach.

Meanwhile, the Celtics and Olynyk picked up right where they left off last year, which was as the second best team in the East. Sure, the Celtics are ranked 3rd in the East, but all the momentum is on their side, and we're likely to continue playing as the best, second best, or at worst 3rd best team in the East down the stretch. Just like last year.

My biggest worry is that once again Brad Stevens freezes up in the playoffs, stops trusting Olynyk like he should, and Stevens will try to adopt the slow-paced style of our playoff opponent, just like Stevens' foolishly tried to out-Cav the Cavs last year.

Brad is willing to lose with IT4 going 2-17 (figurative example), and Stevens sticking with IT4 during early season cold streaks is what helped Thomas emerge as an all star.
Brad didn't rush to judgment and banish IT4 to the bench again.

Brad is willing to lose with Sully starting a game sluggish and lazy.
Brad is willing to lose with Jae Crowder shooting way too many 3s when his shot is off.
Brad is willing to lose with Avery Bradley shooting near air balls during bad games.

But for some reason, Brad is not willing to lose with Olynyk on the court when he's not shooting lights out.

Show me a game we lost this year, and I'll show you a game Olynyk only got 10-14 minutes, or at least certainly not 25 minutes. Perhaps the only exception would be the Golden State game, when Kelly put the team on his shoulders, and scored 28 points in a double overtime loss that would have been a historic win, with KO as the hero, but for a point or two here and there.


Just as when I annoyed you all greatly 3 games into the year, Olynyk still to this day has the best defensive rating on the Celtics. http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1

Olynyk is our top rated defender, and our best 3 point shooter - invited to the 3 Point Contest even - and he has far and away the best +/- per 100 possessions. http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&PerMode=Per100Possessions

Even on a per game basis, the Celtics play better in KO's 20 mpg than they do in any other player's time except during IT's 33 minutes, and Avery Bradley's 33 minutes.

And yet Stevens strictly limits his minutes, and pulls him out of any game he doesn't shoot like Steph Curry.

As you can see, my biggest fear is that Stevens is going to freeze up again in the playoffs, and KO will ride the pine while Brad willingly loses with other players rather than play one of his very best players.

A big part of Olynyk's effectiveness is something I've said a million times. He stretches the floor from the 5 spot or 4 spot. Last time I checked, Ryan Anderson had a better +/- than his fellow starter Anthony Davis.

Just look at the success of rookie Nikola Jokic, a guy I was high on before the 2014 draft. Rumor has it that the Nuggets turned down a trade for Blake Griffin, and Jokic was understandably a huge reason why.

Just look at Porzingis, or KATowns. Olynyk and these other stretch centers are going to rule the NBA for the foreseeable future. Olynyk may not block shots as well as Porzingis or Towns, but his positional and help defense are just about as good.

Just as a reminder of how there's always value to be had at any level of any NBA draft, Jokic fell all the way to the mid-second round of the 2014 draft, and now he's putting up similar stats as Towns and Porzingis, at least on a per minute/possession basis.

I would trade our Nets 2016 pick for Jokic right now, but I'm not sure Denver would take it.


Anyway, to finish my I-told-you-sos, as you can see the Celtics are much better than most of you guys thought. For all the whining about how the Celtics didn't have a star, and all the drooling over second rate free agents like Tobias Harris and Greg Monroe, you guys missed out on appreciating just how awesome the Celtics were after the all star break last year.

IT4 isn't playing dramatically better, he's just getting more minutes. The Celtics aren't even winning games at a higher level than we did once IT got here.
You may not have seen a star in IT4 last year, but you sure see one now.

Jae Crowder is having a statistically identical season as De'Marre Carroll had last year for the Hawks, which earned Carroll a 15 mil per year contract. Except Crowder is 3 years younger than Carroll was during his break out year last year, and Crowder's contract is about half the price of Carroll's.

Would any of you guys really be that surprised if Crowder mad the All Star game next year? If so, you shouldn't be. If so, you'll probably put the Celtics down for 44 wins next year, lol.

One of you guys thought I was nuts for comparing Marcus Smart to Dennis Johnson, and thought a 14 ppg career average was beyond Smart's abilities. Well, he's already averaging 10 ppg as a second year player, and that's coming off the bench next to a (decent) chucker in Evan Turner. If you can't imagine Smart ever getting up to 14 ppg now, I can only laugh. You probably said the same thing about Jae Crowder, and he's averaging over 14ppg this season in his first year with big minutes and a starting role.
So do yourself a favor and don't declare out loud that Crowder can't make an all star game next year and in the years to come. Crowder already doubled his career average in ppg in getting up to 14ppg, so surely he can get up to 17 ppg and make an all star game, right? Right?

This team is stacked with talent, and with young stars.

As I said all summer, stars are created by winning games. That's why IT4 is an all star, and that's why Crowder, Smart, and even KO could be all stars in the not-too-distant future. Avery Bradley is another one, and I'm probably missing some future star, like Mickey or Rozier or somebody.

Anyway, I'll post a few more comments and then return to my troll-hole for another 4 months, and give my draft thoughts.

One draft thought I'll share right now. Simmons is a great prospect, but Brandon Ingram has even more potential, and in conference play he might already be outplaying Simmons.

Ingram is a hybrid of Kevin Durant (exact same college shooting %s) and Tracy McGrady. Please recall that Durant had slow, heavy feet in college, but got more athletic in the NBA. Greek Freak is another 18 year old rookie who got more athletic once he got into the league, finished growing, and started to fill out. Once Ingram starts to fill out, he's going to be more explosive, and he'll be unguardable at SF and eventually at PF, in addition to his ability right now to play extended NBA minutes at SG.

Think Paul George with an even better 3 point shot and all around scoring arsenal.

That's the guy we want.

Another random thought:

David Lee wants out, and the Celtics have agreed to buy him out.

But I hope Lee has a change of heart over this all star break. Tayshaun Prince forced his way out of Boston last year, and he lost out on a playoff run/series as a result.

If David Lee was to ride the pine the rest of the regular season, that would be exactly like last year in Golden State. Like Keith Bogans before him, Lee still thinks he can be a big minute player for a winner, but he's probably wrong.

The Celtics may very well find themselves wishing they had kept David Lee around when the playoffs arrive. His experience, leadership, and (small) value when the game slows down in the playoffs could end up making him extremely valuable to the Celtics, just like Lee suddenly became indispensable to the Warriors championship with a good Finals series.

I sure hope the Celtics find a way to keep him around in the event no big trades occur, because his locker room leadership alone will have big value in the playoffs.

Rambone

Welcome home

Dboss

dboss wrote:Rambone

Welcome home

Dboss

Yup. I second the motion. I always appreciate your take on the Celtics and the NBA in general.

KO is better, but its not like hes carrying the team night in and night out, he contributes, but there are alot of contributors, ET, AB, Sully, Smart, Crowder have all made as much or more contribution than KO and there are instances where we need to get him out of there because teams can still attack him defensively.

Cow

Excellent point. No one player....team, team...team

Dboss

cowens/oldschool wrote:KO is better, but its not like hes carrying the team night in and night out, he contributes, but there are alot of contributors, ET, AB, Sully, Smart, Crowder have all made as much or more contribution than KO and there are instances where we need to get him out of there because teams can still attack him defensively.

Given the fact that Stevens has had the same players for a year now is the main reason we are playing better. We don't have a single player that could be considered anywhere near tops in their position but the sum is greater than the parts...and we have tons of parts.

beat

arambone wrote:Hey guys,

I'm too crazy and argumentative to ever live up to Sam's civility expectations on a regular basis, which is why I deleted my other account.

But I figured I could at least stop in maybe every 4 months and give my thoughts and my I-told-you-sos. I still read this forum most every day, so keep up the good work!

I may have been obsessive, and obnoxious about Kelly Olynyk, the awesome state of the Celtics, and advanced stats, but you can't say I was inaccurate.

If you think Olynyk is playing much better than last year, I'd just like to note that his advanced stats show he's picking up right where he left off last year. Except for 3 pt%.

Brad Stevens' refusal to play Olynyk big minutes early in the season drove me bonkers, and I think we all know by now that it likely cost us a handful of games.

While I predicted 55 wins for this team this year, we'll likely win 50-52 games because of that slow start with Zeller and Lee as our starting frontcourt. Just like two years ago when Brad made Avery Bradley his starting point guard to start the year and we opened 0-4 before Stevens finally started Jordan Crawford.

I don't have the stats in front of me, but I think we've all seen the stats that show the Celtics win almost every game that KO gets more than 25 minutes, and our record is atrocious when Olynyk plays 15 minutes or less. Something like that.

My thoughts on the matter:
Brad Stevens froze up in his first NBA playoff series. Rather than stick with Olynyk, who was a top 2 reason the Celtics got into the playoffs in the first place, Stevens froze up and benched Olynyk in the playoffs because he lost too many rebounds.

Fast forward to a few months later, and offensive rebounding is down dramatically across the league, Mozgov is glued to the bench in Cleveland, and the Cavs just decided that they are going to go small-ball and uptempo under their new coach.

Meanwhile, the Celtics and Olynyk picked up right where they left off last year, which was as the second best team in the East. Sure, the Celtics are ranked 3rd in the East, but all the momentum is on their side, and we're likely to continue playing as the best, second best, or at worst 3rd best team in the East down the stretch. Just like last year.

My biggest worry is that once again Brad Stevens freezes up in the playoffs, stops trusting Olynyk like he should, and Stevens will try to adopt the slow-paced style of our playoff opponent, just like Stevens' foolishly tried to out-Cav the Cavs last year.

Brad is willing to lose with IT4 going 2-17 (figurative example), and Stevens sticking with IT4 during early season cold streaks is what helped Thomas emerge as an all star.
Brad didn't rush to judgment and banish IT4 to the bench again.

Brad is willing to lose with Sully starting a game sluggish and lazy.
Brad is willing to lose with Jae Crowder shooting way too many 3s when his shot is off.
Brad is willing to lose with Avery Bradley shooting near air balls during bad games.

But for some reason, Brad is not willing to lose with Olynyk on the court when he's not shooting lights out.

Show me a game we lost this year, and I'll show you a game Olynyk only got 10-14 minutes, or at least certainly not 25 minutes. Perhaps the only exception would be the Golden State game, when Kelly put the team on his shoulders, and scored 28 points in a double overtime loss that would have been a historic win, with KO as the hero, but for a point or two here and there.


Just as when I annoyed you all greatly 3 games into the year, Olynyk still to this day has the best defensive rating on the Celtics. http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1

Olynyk is our top rated defender, and our best 3 point shooter - invited to the 3 Point Contest even - and he has far and away the best +/- per 100 possessions. http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&PerMode=Per100Possessions

Even on a per game basis, the Celtics play better in KO's 20 mpg than they do in any other player's time except during IT's 33 minutes, and Avery Bradley's 33 minutes.

And yet Stevens strictly limits his minutes, and pulls him out of any game he doesn't shoot like Steph Curry.

As you can see, my biggest fear is that Stevens is going to freeze up again in the playoffs, and KO will ride the pine while Brad willingly loses with other players rather than play one of his very best players.

A big part of Olynyk's effectiveness is something I've said a million times. He stretches the floor from the 5 spot or 4 spot. Last time I checked, Ryan Anderson had a better +/- than his fellow starter Anthony Davis.

Just look at the success of rookie Nikola Jokic, a guy I was high on before the 2014 draft. Rumor has it that the Nuggets turned down a trade for Blake Griffin, and Jokic was understandably a huge reason why.

Just look at Porzingis, or KATowns. Olynyk and these other stretch centers are going to rule the NBA for the foreseeable future. Olynyk may not block shots as well as Porzingis or Towns, but his positional and help defense are just about as good.

Just as a reminder of how there's always value to be had at any level of any NBA draft, Jokic fell all the way to the mid-second round of the 2014 draft, and now he's putting up similar stats as Towns and Porzingis, at least on a per minute/possession basis.

I would trade our Nets 2016 pick for Jokic right now, but I'm not sure Denver would take it.


Anyway, to finish my I-told-you-sos, as you can see the Celtics are much better than most of you guys thought. For all the whining about how the Celtics didn't have a star, and all the drooling over second rate free agents like Tobias Harris and Greg Monroe, you guys missed out on appreciating just how awesome the Celtics were after the all star break last year.

IT4 isn't playing dramatically better, he's just getting more minutes. The Celtics aren't even winning games at a higher level than we did once IT got here.
You may not have seen a star in IT4 last year, but you sure see one now.

Jae Crowder is having a statistically identical season as De'Marre Carroll had last year for the Hawks, which earned Carroll a 15 mil per year contract. Except Crowder is 3 years younger than Carroll was during his break out year last year, and Crowder's contract is about half the price of Carroll's.

Would any of you guys really be that surprised if Crowder mad the All Star game next year? If so, you shouldn't be. If so, you'll probably put the Celtics down for 44 wins next year, lol.

One of you guys thought I was nuts for comparing Marcus Smart to Dennis Johnson, and thought a 14 ppg career average was beyond Smart's abilities. Well, he's already averaging 10 ppg as a second year player, and that's coming off the bench next to a (decent) chucker in Evan Turner. If you can't imagine Smart ever getting up to 14 ppg now, I can only laugh. You probably said the same thing about Jae Crowder, and he's averaging over 14ppg this season in his first year with big minutes and a starting role.
So do yourself a favor and don't declare out loud that Crowder can't make an all star game next year and in the years to come. Crowder already doubled his career average in ppg in getting up to 14ppg, so surely he can get up to 17 ppg and make an all star game, right? Right?

This team is stacked with talent, and with young stars.

As I said all summer, stars are created by winning games. That's why IT4 is an all star, and that's why Crowder, Smart, and even KO could be all stars in the not-too-distant future. Avery Bradley is another one, and I'm probably missing some future star, like Mickey or Rozier or somebody.

Anyway, I'll post a few more comments and then return to my troll-hole for another 4 months, and give my draft thoughts.

One draft thought I'll share right now. Simmons is a great prospect, but Brandon Ingram has even more potential, and in conference play he might already be outplaying Simmons.

Ingram is a hybrid of Kevin Durant (exact same college shooting %s) and Tracy McGrady. Please recall that Durant had slow, heavy feet in college, but got more athletic in the NBA. Greek Freak is another 18 year old rookie who got more athletic once he got into the league, finished growing, and started to fill out. Once Ingram starts to fill out, he's going to be more explosive, and he'll be unguardable at SF and eventually at PF, in addition to his ability right now to play extended NBA minutes at SG.

Think Paul George with an even better 3 point shot and all around scoring arsenal.

That's the guy we want.

rambone,

I agree with you on some things and disagree with some things.
First, you came back after being gone for however long and you spent a great effort in your post tooting your own horn or with your I told you so's.
Your post seems very opportunistic.
Where were you less than a month ago when the Celtics were 22-21?
They did not pick up where they left off last year.
They were a .500 team for more than half of the season and have played well lately.

Olynyk is playing much better.
But Boston needs more than 3 point shooting from him.
It's hard to have your center being a subpar rebounder, rim protector and defender.
You are wrong about Olynyk's minutes.
I looked at two back to back losses.
On 1/18 he played 26 minutes and on 1/20 he played 31 minutes. Those were the only two losses I looked up.
Stevens had to play Olynyk limited minutes in last year playoffs because he was terrible.
In last years 4 playoff games Olynyk had more fouls than rebounds, assists, steals and blocks combined.

You think Crowder, Smart and KO can be all-stars? Well, anything is possible, but the same thoughts can then be said for dozens of players in the league.

I agree about Ingram. I think he will be a star. I hope the Lakers get to draft him, even as much as Ben Simmons.

beat wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:KO is better, but its not like hes carrying the team night in and night out, he contributes, but there are alot of contributors, ET, AB, Sully, Smart, Crowder have all made as much or more contribution than KO and there are instances where we need to get him out of there because teams can still attack him defensively.

Given the fact that Stevens has had the same players for a year now is the main reason we are playing better. We don't have a single player that could be considered anywhere near tops in their position but the sum is greater than the parts...and we have tons of parts.

beat

also alot of our key guys are very young, they are all 21-23, 24, at an age they can still make good strides/improvements and be developed by a great coach. We seem to have a talent for getting players with some core abilities that may have not lived up to expectations like an ET or Crowder or Jerebko, they were not good fits, but Brad gets them to focus on a few key areas and they find their role. A player that I really liked last year from afar was Mitch McGarry, not a traditional rim protector, but a very mobile big with running and ball handling skills, can play the 4 or 5, kind of like a stronger Jerebko, with better post skills. Hes been out of the rotation as Thunder have too many bigs.....he might be worth a look, he can play in space and fits in our system IMHO.

cowens/oldschool wrote:

beat wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:KO is better, but its not like hes carrying the team night in and night out, he contributes, but there are alot of contributors, ET, AB, Sully, Smart, Crowder have all made as much or more contribution than KO and there are instances where we need to get him out of there because teams can still attack him defensively.

Given the fact that Stevens has had the same players for a year now is the main reason we are playing better. We don't have a single player that could be considered anywhere near tops in their position but the sum is greater than the parts...and we have tons of parts.

beat

also alot of our key guys are very young, they are all 21-23, 24, at an age they can still make good strides/improvements and be developed by a great coach. We seem to have a talent for getting players with some core abilities that may have not lived up to expectations like an ET or Crowder or Jerebko, they were not good fits, but Brad gets them to focus on a few key areas and they find their role. A player that I really liked last year from afar was Mitch McGarry, not a traditional rim protector, but a very mobile big with running and ball handling skills, can play the 4 or 5, kind of like a stronger Jerebko, with better post skills. Hes been out of the rotation as Thunder have too many bigs.....he might be worth a look, he can play in space and fits in our system IMHO.

cow,

btw, A.J. Hammons of Purdue is ranked #36 by draftexpress.com. He's also 23 years old. Says something that a player with an NBA-ready body like his stayed in school until he was MUCH older than every other student, much less student athlete, and is still going in the 2nd round.


bob


.

Rambone,

It is nice to see that your writing style has not changed. You still make some good points but reading beyond about two sentences is still pretty tough.

In your own humble opinion, have you ever been wrong about a Celtics topic?

wideclyde wrote:Rambone,

It is nice to see that your writing style has not changed.  You still make some good points but reading beyond about two sentences is still pretty tough.

In your own humble opinion, have you ever been wrong about a Celtics topic?

Ouch!!! Great question wideclyde

swish

Civility gentlemen, civility!

Depending on the day, my wife might say that I'm never right. That's about as close to absolutes as I get.

a-Rambone makes a cameo apperance and all hell breaks loose!

dboss

when I say I'm too crazy to be a regular here, I sincerely mean it. Especially in the dog days of winter.

But I'd rather be obnoxiously right about my favorite team than obnoxiously wrong and negative about my favorite team. While simultaneously being irrationally high on anybody who wears another team's jersey. And irrationally high on every other team but the Celtics.

I've always placed more importance on treating the Celtics with politeness and respect, rather than treating fellow posters with politeness and respect.

Like I said, I'm mental.