Kevin Pelton: Jared Sullinger Will Likely Cost Boston Celtics 15M Per Season

by **bobheckler** Mon Mar 28, 2016 12:26 pm

http://clnsradio.com/boston-celtics-news/item/13449-kevin-pelton-jared-sullinger-will-likely-cost-boston-celtics-15m-per-season

Kevin Pelton: Jared Sullinger Will Likely Cost Boston Celtics 15M Per Season

Written by Edward Santiago

Kevin Pelton: Jared Sullinger Will Likely Cost Boston Celtics 15M Per Season
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

We’re coming down the home stretch of the NBA season, and with just over two weeks left in the NBA season, Celtics Beat continues to roll on. This week on the podcast, Larry H. Russell brings on Kevin Pelton of ESPN to talk about the Celtics, and touch on the rest of the NBA.

Marcus Smart has recently become a player that has the Celtics fan base torn. His poor shooting form and poor offensive game in general has fans questioning how good he can really be.

Pelton was high on Smart prior to the draft saying.

“There was some excitement about him during a stretch when he was making three’s. That’s just not who he is.

Although his offense has been subpar to say the least, his defense has still been phenomenal, and Pelton says that may be Smart’s destiny in the NBA.

“It’s kinda hard to be a useful NBA player when you’re shooting 34 percent from the field, but it’s not impossible. The numbers say that he is. Despite the fact that he’s a complete non shooter he’s so so good defensively that it’s not a huge deal.”

Pelton talked about the flashes he had shown in college and in summer league this past year and thinks that just isn’t who he is.

Jared Sullinger has solidified his place in the Boston Celtics starting lineup. He’s helped with the teams interior defense, and has really been cleaning up on the rebounds, especially defensively.

With Sully expected headed into restricted free agency this summer, his price has gone up.

“I think 15 million dollars a year is pretty reasonable,” Pelton said “[with the cap spike] that’s likely going to be the salary for an average starter in the NBA going forward.”

Pelton went on to explain how good Jared Sullinger has been beyond the box score numbers. “He’s established that he can be that kind of guy. RPM has really liked his contributions for awhile now, and the fact that he’s not shooting the three as much but can still space it gives him value.”

To hear the entire interview with Kevin Pelton of ESPN tune into the Celtics Beat Podcast with Larry H. Russell. The guys talk about the Celtics season, Jared Sullinger, Marcus Smart, and even touch on the rest of the league.

bob
MY NOTE: A player who cannot score cannot start. Smart was the #6 pick. He should be a starter in the NBA or the draft is BS and/or Smart is a bust @ #6 just as Evan Turner is a good player but a bust @ #2.

On the issue of Sully, is he worth $15M? He's a starter on this team but that's because we really don't have a legitimate starting NBA center on the roster. If we did, would he be starting? Not at center, obviously, and depending upon who that NBA center is (e.g. Cousins vs Okafur) would he be starting at PF?

Would you pay Sully $15M, even with the cap going up like it will?

.

by **wideclyde** Mon Mar 28, 2016 1:23 pm

bob,

I have no problem with Smart just as he is regardless of when he was drafted. He is one guy who, as a sub, does not need to score tons of points as he just does so many other things (the intangibles) that are so important to a winning team. Yes, I would like him to shoot better, but he has has shot better than he has in recent weeks and WILL again shoot better.

Regarding Sullinger and getting $15 M as a restricted free agent this summer. I do not think that he has that much value to any team, but definitely not to the Cs. He does some things very well, but no where near enough things well or consistently to warrant such an increase in salary.

Some nights he rebounds very well and on other nights he scores pretty well. He never will be a top level defender at center because he is just not tall enough nor at the power forward as he is not quick enough.
His free throw shooting is OK, but his nightly point production does not seem to match consistently with I believe that a starter should deliver. Yes, he can score 22, but often follows such a night with an offensive output of maybe four or five points. A starter (and, a $15M player) needs to be much more reliable from game to game.

Of course, his conditioning (better this year) and his weight (maybe not better this year?) are going to be long term issues that may very well limit his minutes and his contributions at any time in his career.

I don't dislike this player as he has been pretty much what I thought he would be when drafted, but would just not feel good matching any kind of a yearly salary beyond about $6M per season for possibly a three to four year contract. And, I will be pretty surprised if he gets offered anything near $15M by any team.

by **dboss** Mon Mar 28, 2016 1:26 pm

The Celtics should not consider paying Sully $15 million next year. This is why.

This is Sullinger's 4th year in the league and the level of improvement that we all hoped to see has not happened.

Sully's MPG are down this year to 24 which is probbaly about right given his inability to play long periods of time in a uptempo offense.

Sully has regressed to be honest. he is averaging 11.1 PPG and 8.6 rebounds

His ability to shoot the ball is not getting any better.

43% overall FG % and a DREADFULL .277% from behind the arc. Even his free throw shooting is trending downward at .639%

Concerns about his conditioning and long term health are still there.

Part time questionable players do not deserve a $15 m per year pay raise.

DA needs to move him during the off season

dboss

by **arambone** Mon Mar 28, 2016 1:32 pm

Smart started over IT last year, when we finished 24-12.

Last year people said IT couldn't start because of his defense.

I'm sure Smart would be fine as a starter again, which is why he started over Bradley when Bradley went into a shooting slump. Then I think Smart got hurt or something, and never re-claimed the starting job.

Perk couldn't score and he was a rock solid starter in his prime.

As good a defender as Bradley is, he's better against PGs than SGs, and I'd say Smart is a much better defender against SGs.

I'm not saying Smart should clearly be starting over Bradley, but I don't think you'd see much, if any falloff if they switched places. Bradley actually responded amazingly well coming off the bench, and he'd sure give the bench more scoring than Smart, while Smart would help set the physical tone of the game in the starting lineup. And playing next to IT and Crowder, there would be less shots for Smart, and less need for him to be shooting.

Bradley definitely fits with this starting lineup better, because Amir and Sully are shaky outside shooters, but we'd be fine with Smart in the starting lineup, especially if Olynyk started over Amir.

Enforcer/garbage man is a valid role for a starter, even from SG:
This was just about the play of the night the other night:

by **steve3344** Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:36 pm

wideclyde wrote:bob,

I have no problem with Smart just as he is regardless of when he was drafted. He is one guy who, as a sub, does not need to score tons of points as he just does so many other things (the intangibles) that are so important to a winning team. Yes, I would like him to shoot better, but has has shot better than he has in recent weeks and WILL again shoot better.

Regarding Sullinger and him getting $15 M as a restricted free agent this summer. I do not think that he has that much value to any team, but definitely not to the Cs. He does some things very well, but no where near enough things well or consistently to warrant such an increase in salary.

Some nights he rebounds very well and on other nights he scores pretty well. He never will be a top level defender at center because he is just not tall enough nor at the power forward as he is not quick enough.
His free throw shooting is OK, but his nightly point production does not seem to match consistently with I believe that a starter should deliver. Yes, he can score 22, but often follows such a night with an offensive output of maybe four or five points. A starter (and, a $15M player) needs to be much more reliable from game to game.

Of course, his conditioning (better this year) and his weight (maybe not better this year?) are going to be long term issues that may very well limit his minutes and his contributions at any time in his career.

I don't dislike this player as he has been pretty much what I thought he would be when drafted, but would just not feel good matching any kind of a yearly salary beyond about $6M per season for possibly a three to four year contract. And, I will be pretty surprised if he gets offered anything near $15M by any team.

"but has has shot better than he has in recent weeks"

Hard to imagine anyone shooting worse than Smart in the last month. Since Feb. 27th Smart has shot 31 for 111 (28%) and a Evan Turner-esque (before ET's recent little hot streak) 9 for 58 (15.5%) on threes. Scary bad shooting. A four week shooting slump for the ages.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01/gamelog/2016/

by **bobheckler** Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:47 pm

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2016/03/28/marcus-smart-by-the-numbers

Marcus Smart is having the worst 3-point shooting season in NBA history

Antoine Walker had the second-worst

Kevin Pelton: Jared Sullinger Will Likely Cost Boston Celtics 15M Per Season Marcus3magic-850x478$large

Kevin Pelton: Jared Sullinger Will Likely Cost Boston Celtics 15M Per Season Marcus3magic-850x478$large

One of Smart's five missed threes from the Boston's 107 -96 win over the Magic at TD Garden
–Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

By Paul Swydan

11:32 AM

Marcus Smart is an exciting young player. He has excelled defensively, and in particular he steals the ball more frequently than just about everyone in the league. On a per game basis this season, he’s scoring and rebounding more, and has turned into one of the better defensive rebounders at the guard position. He has also improved his free throw shooting. The rest of his shooting, in particular his three-point shooting…is a huge problem.

This should be readily apparent to anyone who has watched the Celtics over the past week. In the team’s last three games, Smart is 0-for-11 from downtown: 0-for-5 last Monday against the Magic, 0-for-1 on Wednesday against Toronto, and then 0-for-5 again on Saturday against Phoenix. It’s been an ugly week shooting the ball for Smart, who overall was just 4-for-26 from the field. While this was an extremely bad week for him shooting-wise, it’s just the worst of what has been a bad season.

Let’s focus on his three-point shooting. Smart has not only been bad at shooting threes, he’s been worse than he was last season, and he has been trending downward as this season has progressed. He shot just .238 from downtown before injury forced him out of the lineup at the end of November. In his first 14 games back, from Dec. 27 through Jan. 22, he shot a measly .156 from downtown. Perhaps he could be forgiven for this downturn, as he was working his way back into the lineup.

Fortunately, he would improve. In his following game, he hit three of his six three-pointers in a win over the 76ers. In six of the following 10 games, he hit multiple threes, and for that 11-game stretch from Jan. 24 to Feb. 10, he had .429 three-point percentage (3PT%). That’s well above the .353 league average, and was a genuine ray of hope. But then came a nine-days layoff for the All-Star break. When Smart left, so did his shooting touch. In the 18 games since the All-Star break, Smart has hit just 13 of the 72 threes, for a woeful .181 3PT%. That’s really, really bad.

This has gone on long enough that this is no longer cute or innocent. For the season, Smart has taken 215 three-pointers, and has hit just 54 of them, for a .254 3PT%. In the history of the NBA, 1,943 players have taken at least 200 three-pointers in an individual season. The highest percentage hit was Tim Legler’s .522 3PT% in 1995-1996 (128-for-245). The worst of those 1,943, right now, is Marcus Smart this season. Smart is literally enduring the worst season shooting three pointers in NBA history.

Celtics fans have seen this before. If you follow the link above, you’ll note that the player with the second-worst 3PT% ever is Antoine Walker, from the 1999-2000 season. In case you don’t recall, this was Walker’s fourth season. He was better in both the preceding and following season, which makes the 1999-2000 season an anomaly for Walker. Whether it becomes an anomaly for Smart is obviously uncertain.

What is certain is that Smart is currently one of the worst three-point shooters in NBA history. In his brief NBA career, Smart has hit just 145 of the 487 three pointers he has launched. In NBA history, 560 players have taken at least 450 three-pointers in their career. Of them, Smart ranks 525th, one of the 40 who have hit fewer than 30 percent of them.

With more context, we see it’s actually worse than this. Some of these players played in the 1980s, when the three-pointer was new and players didn’t shoot it as frequently. Former Celtics guard John Bagley, for instance, only took 473 threes in his 11-year career (1983-1993), as opposed to Smart, who has blown past that mark in two seasons. Other players are forwards, who are not expected to be a good three-point shooters. All-Star/Hall of Fame forwards like Charles Barkley, Kevin Garnett, A.C. Green, James Worthy and Chris Webber find themselves in this group. This is Garnett’s 21st season. He’s taken 632 threes in that time. Smart will likely blow past that mark next season.

In 1993-1994, the NBA averaged 9.9 three-point attempts per game. The next season, that jumped to 15.3, and has been at least at 12.7 ever since. This season, the NBA is at 23.9, the fourth-straight year the record for threes per game has been broken. If we restrict our player search to guards who have taken at least 450 threes from 1994-1995 to the present, we see that Smart ranks 308th out of 317, or tenth worst.

This isn’t the end of the world for three reasons. One, look at the nine players worse than him – Ron Harper, Tyreke Evans, Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo, Rod Strickland, Bimbo Coles, DeMar DeRozan, Anthony Carter and Andre Miller. Wade, Rondo and DeRozan have been All-Stars, and five of the others played for at least 13 seasons. The other is Evans, who is in his seventh NBA season, and has averaged 33.4 minutes played per game throughout his career. Smart can still have a very long NBA career.

The other pieces of good news are related. Three-point shots are highly variable, and as such take a long time to stabilize. Research by Nylon Calculus shows that a player’s three-point percentage doesn’t stabilize until 750 shots, which Smart isn’t up to yet.

That’s because that Smart is still very, very young. I have written before that Dwyane Wade is the worst three-point shooter of all-time. But Wade didn’t debut in the NBA until he was 22. Smart is 21 this season. If we restrict our previous search of players who have taken 450 or more threes in their careers to 450 or more by the end of their age-21 season, we end up with a list of 26 players. The list includes Kevin Durant, James Harden, Rudy Gay, Allen Iverson, Stephon Marbury, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Tony Parker, Antoine Walker, Kyrie Irving and Carmelo Anthony. That’s pretty good company. Smart ranks 25th on the list, with only Anthony having been worse.

This list, on the whole, is a good news-bad news situation. The good news is that Smart is in a select group of players who have been trusted to play this much at a young age, and that many of them have had excellent careers. The one other piece of good news is that the player who improved his shooting the most following his age-21 season was the one player who was worse than Smart – Carmelo Anthony. In his first three seasons in the NBA, Anthony hit just 148 of the 524 threes he took, for a .282 3PT%. In the following decade, including this season, he has a .359 3PT%, which is a dramatic improvement.

The bad news is that Anthony is the outlier. No one else got close to Anthony’s improvement, and as a whole, this group shot worse from downtown following their age-21 seasons than they did in their age-18 through 21 seasons. Some, like Danilo Gallinari and Allen Iverson, were/have been much worse.

Marcus Smart has been a very poor three-point shooter. This isn’t a death knell for his career. He does other things well, and can be a productive NBA player for a very long time. But unless you believe that he can follow in Carmelo Anthony’s footsteps and significantly improve his three-point shooting, what we’re seeing is what we’re getting from him. He either needs to spend a lot more time shooting threes at the Celtics practice facility in Waltham than he does during games in Boston, or he and coach Brad Stevens need to adopt a game plan that better suits his strengths.

bob

.

by **kdp59** Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:03 pm

one note from the article:

they say $15M is about right for an average NBA starter going forward.

to me that doesn't add up

5X15M= $75M

leaving $13-15M for the other 9-10 players on the roster.

seems a bit high to me.
even with three players on late first or second round rookie deals and /or minimum vet deals, you have $5M tied up there.

leaving $8-10M for 6-7 vet players.

your 6-9 guys on the roster will average more than $1.5M per player, sorry.

more likely is $12-13M will be the salary for an average NBA starter.

and I DO think that Sully could get a deal in the $10-12M range per year. which to me is an average starters pay with the expanded cap next year.

sometimes people seem to think only the top players will be seeing increases in salary. But I think we'll see it right down the line, so the bench players will make more also than in the past.

by **dboss** Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:56 pm

So $12 mill for sully is your top price?

Dboss

by **Matty** Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:39 pm

IF Sully was in better shape I could see him north of 10 mil for us.

But then there once was a cigar smoking fella who said "don't talk to me about "ifs" if my grandmother had had balls she would have been my grandfather.."

Ya give sully 15 mill a yr for half a decade and what motivation does he have to stay in even the shape he is in now?

by **kdp59** Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:09 am

dboss wrote:So $12 mill for sully is your top price?

Dboss

yes, for me anyway $10-12 M would be the very top.

in fact I would probably offer something in the 4yr/$40M range and then let the market set his price if higher.

I would rather sign TOP player for max or near max deal (Durant, Horford, etc) than Sully more than $12M

my mind wanders easily so...........

lets say the basketball gods smile on us this off-season.

Durant and Danny get a Max deal done:

we'd be about at $79M in salarys before the rookies (around another $6M) leaving us maybe $5M left for any other signings ,Zeller, Turner and Sully all gone then ( well maybe Zeller could be signed for $5M).

then Danny trades the #4 pick in this years draft and give Philly back their second rounder for Okafor.
Okafor has replaced Sully at a salary next year of under $5M. and we'd control him with team options the next two years after at around $5M and $6M (much LESS than Sully).

then with the Dallas pick we draft D. Bacon or D. Valentine

with our pick we draft D. Jones or AJ Hammons

with Minnys second rounder we select one of W. Selden or C. Levert

off season done.

roster:

Okafor
Jones or Hammons
Amir
Kelly
Jerebko
Mickey
Crowder
Durant
Young or the Minny pick
Bradley
Thomas
Smart
Dallas pick
Rozier
Hunter

of course there is no real reason to think that Durant will sign here, but a guy can let his mind wander a bit in the morning.

by **bobheckler** Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:27 pm

Sully is a restricted free agent with a $3.27M qualifying offer. He will be offered more than that. Why not just let the market set it's price, whatever it is, and if it's for more than Danny wants to pay then he can start looking at a sign-and-trade with Sully?

One question to ask is "who would want Sully badly enough to pay >$10M for him?".

It would be a team that lacks bulk, but not height.

IF Philly trades Okafur they would qualify as a home for Sully.
IF Cleveland loses Tristan Thompson in free agency, they would be interested in Ohio State alumnus and Ohio homie Jared Sullinger. The rumor is they want to move Mozgov.
IF Doc decides he needs to move Griffin, maybe he would consider Sully and Amir + killer picks.
IF Miami cannot do a salary dump that will let them keep Whiteside, they might be interested in Sully and/or Amir to fill the hole.
IF Atlanta is losing Horford then a sign-and-trade might work with them. They also were interested in moving Jeff Teague.

There's 5 possible trading partners and that doesn't take into account who they draft and makes someone else expendable. The only thing we know is that Danny is big-game hunting.

At the All-Star game the Celtics did their due diligence and inquired into the availability of most stars, so much so that one league executive told Bulpett that, “It’s like they took the All-Star roster and used it as Match.com.” - per NESN.

bob

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by **tjmakz** Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:11 pm

bobheckler wrote:Sully is a restricted free agent with a $3.27M qualifying offer. He will be offered more than that. Why not just let the market set it's price, whatever it is, and if it's for more than Danny wants to pay then he can start looking at a sign-and-trade with Sully?

One question to ask is "who would want Sully badly enough to pay >$10M for him?".

It would be a team that lacks bulk, but not height.

IF Philly trades Okafur they would qualify as a home for Sully.
IF Cleveland loses Tristan Thompson in free agency, they would be interested in Ohio State alumnus and Ohio homie Jared Sullinger. The rumor is they want to move Mozgov.
IF Doc decides he needs to move Griffin, maybe he would consider Sully and Amir + killer picks.
IF Miami cannot do a salary dump that will let them keep Whiteside, they might be interested in Sully and/or Amir to fill the hole.
IF Atlanta is losing Horford then a sign-and-trade might work with them. They also were interested in moving Jeff Teague.

There's 5 possible trading partners and that doesn't take into account who they draft and makes someone else expendable. The only thing we know is that Danny is big-game hunting.

At the All-Star game the Celtics did their due diligence and inquired into the availability of most stars, so much so that one league executive told Bulpett that, “It’s like they took the All-Star roster and used it as Match.com.” - per NESN.

bob

.

Bob,

I agree that Boston should let the market dictate Sullinger's value.
He is a restricted free agent, so Boston won't be offering him a contract.
Maybe they will match, maybe they decide not to.

With the increased salary cap, I can see Sullinger getting a $10m/year offer from a team that needs to add payroll.
NBA teams have to have a team salary of at least 90% of the salary cap limit.
So, all teams next year will have to spend at least $80m on payroll.
I could see Philly or Phoenix offering Sullinger big money, because they have to spend it on someone...

Tristian Thompson is not a free agent.
He is signed through 2020.

by **bobheckler** Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:04 am

tjmakz wrote:
bobheckler wrote:Sully is a restricted free agent with a $3.27M qualifying offer. He will be offered more than that. Why not just let the market set it's price, whatever it is, and if it's for more than Danny wants to pay then he can start looking at a sign-and-trade with Sully?

One question to ask is "who would want Sully badly enough to pay >$10M for him?".

It would be a team that lacks bulk, but not height.

IF Philly trades Okafur they would qualify as a home for Sully.
IF Cleveland loses Tristan Thompson in free agency, they would be interested in Ohio State alumnus and Ohio homie Jared Sullinger. The rumor is they want to move Mozgov.
IF Doc decides he needs to move Griffin, maybe he would consider Sully and Amir + killer picks.
IF Miami cannot do a salary dump that will let them keep Whiteside, they might be interested in Sully and/or Amir to fill the hole.
IF Atlanta is losing Horford then a sign-and-trade might work with them. They also were interested in moving Jeff Teague.

There's 5 possible trading partners and that doesn't take into account who they draft and makes someone else expendable. The only thing we know is that Danny is big-game hunting.

At the All-Star game the Celtics did their due diligence and inquired into the availability of most stars, so much so that one league executive told Bulpett that, “It’s like they took the All-Star roster and used it as Match.com.” - per NESN.

bob

.

Bob,

I agree that Boston should let the market dictate Sullinger's value.
He is a restricted free agent, so Boston won't be offering him a contract.
Maybe they will match, maybe they decide not to.

With the increased salary cap, I can see Sullinger getting a $10m/year offer from a team that needs to add payroll.
NBA teams have to have a team salary of at least 90% of the salary cap limit.
So, all teams next year will have to spend at least $80m on payroll.
I could see Philly or Phoenix offering Sullinger big money, because they have to spend it on someone...

Tristian Thompson is not a free agent.
He is signed through 2020.

TJ,

Quite correct about Thompson. I was still belaboring under the impression that he signed a one-year deal so he could become an unrestricted free agent this summer. That was his position when he was holding out last summer.

So, one less home for Sully, I would think, although you don't know that for sure if they move Mozgov as has been rumored. There aren't that many quality brutes available in the NBA anymore to replace him with. They did sign Channing Frye to a 3-year deal, so maybe they are moving to a "new NBA" stretch 5 roster too and will name him their starting center instead.

bob

.

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