Fast Approaching Draft/Trades, etc.

The off-season for Boston will be the most active that we have seen in recent memory.
There are three areas that will have a profound and long term impact on the team.  Those areas have been discussed in various threads and I thought it would be a good idea to put together a summary of what the team will be dealing with.  Those three areas include:

The 2016 NBA Draft and Trades
2016 NBA free agency

Trades will occur during the draft and that will continue into February, 2017.

All of these activities are tied together as one will affect the other.  As we review these events I think the first thing we need to do is to establish a positional wish list that we can agree on and then debate which players would be the best fit.  While adding new players will happen this year we still do not know which players will be traded or renounced or re-signed.  There are 5 players on this team whose future with the Celtics are in question.  Although there are no untouchables, these 5 players will require some contract related activity.

Amir Johnson, Jared Sullinger, Evan Turner, Tyler Zeller and Jonas Jerebko are those players that the Celtics have to make a decision about. Danny felt it was better to play out the year before making any major moves.  The trade deadline came and went but now the Celtics have no choice but to reshuffle the deck.  Let's take a look at each of these players in more detail.

Amir Johnson was the only addition to the team that has played any meaningful minutes.  The Celtics control a $12 million dollar team option.  Amir has averaged 7.4 PPG, 6.1 rebounds and 1.1 Blocks.  He has led the team in FG percentage at .59% but was very poor at the line at 56% and horrible from behind the arc at 24%.  In May he will turn 29 years old.  Amir pretty much played as expected.  He’s a mature unselfish player that swings between PF and center.  He runs the floor pretty well and primarily scores in the post with his jump hook.  That is pretty much it for him on offense.   He is 8th on the team in shot attempts and his MPG were down to 22.8.    Defensively he will still comes up with big defensive plays and does a fairly good job helping out on the weak side.

My Take $12 million per for a part time player is a lot of loot even though the salary cap is going up.  Amir however is one of those players that you would want on your team.  If you let him walk he is not going to get $12 million a year from anyone.  His production just does not equate with that level of salary.   However if we do not draft a big the Celtics should consider putting together a 2-3 year deal in the $8 million dollar range.

Jared Sullinger is very likely to be traded.  He is a one trick Pony.  He can rebound.  His MPG if you noticed has gone down from 27 to 23.7  He continues to be a very unreliable shooter/scorer averaging 10.4 MPG in this his 4th year with the club and his .437% FG percentage is low as is his free throw shooting 64% and of course his inability to make the 3 ball has not changed as he is shooting below 30%.  To his credit he is not hoisting as many this year.  Sully’s problem is impossible to miss.  It is all around him.    He cannot consistently contribute in the pace and space game.  Watching him try to run up and down especially when trying to get back on defense is a disgrace.  I have seen enough of him to assume that he has very little if any upside.    It is time to part ways now and his replacement is already on the team. (Jordan Mickey)  I look for Boston to attempt to move Sullybelly in a draft day trade.

Next to IT I can make a case that Ivan Turner is the 2nd most valuable player on the team.   I know that we falsely make statements that Marcus Smart can play at the point or at the 2 or you can even slide him into the 3 spot.  Guess what.. none of that is true because Marcus is not a good PG or a good shooting guard or a good SF.  Evan Turner is the most versatile player on the team and he is the only 3 position player on the team.  So he wants $15 mill I hear.  He is not that versatile.

I would offer him $10-$12mill 5 year contract.   If he does not like that then I would let him walk.  He does have some weaknesses like shooting from distance although lately he has been hitting from the corners. He still goes into his turnover funk without warning. He is still primarily best on the ball with ok but not great defense.     We need to add a SF and Rosier looks about ready to be the full time BU PG behind IT.  Bottom line I would not sweat over losing him in free agency.  

Tyler Zeller remains a BU center.   If we draft or trade or sign a Center then Zeller can head out of town as well.   If we wanted to keep him something in the $6.5 -$7.5 million per year seems about right.

Jonas is making less then MLE money.   Sometimes I like him and other times I can't stand watching him play.  If Amir is gone I would keep Jonas but if Amir stays I would use that money on someone else.  

The draft is coming up soon but first the Celtics will get to see where their picks are going to be.  The Nets pick will be 3rd or 4th depending on what happens in the next game.  Of course the lotto could kick us all the way down to 7th. The Suns have no good reason to win another game but I respect that they have kept everyone guessing by winning a couple of games recently.  Either pick should provide an opportunity to draft a quality player that should be able to make a contribution immediately.  That pick also could be dangled about as part of a trade to land a quality starter.  It would need to be a sure thing if DA uses that pick or any of the other 2 Nets picks over the next few years.

But because DA has two other first rounders plus the first pick in the 2nd round he should be able to barter his way through a trade without giving up The Nets pick this year.  Ther3 are of course exceptions.

Some of the observations I have seen with respect to the way the Celtics match up with other team that also space the floor is that we need several pieces to beat these teams on a consistent basis.

Our 4 and 5 positions  need to be upgraded.  We basically have a platoon system .  If you look at MPG, Sully averages the most minutes of any of our PF/C and that is just 23 a game.  We do not have a big time player in our front court and it is very noticeable when the Celtics go up against a team that has more athletic players in their front court.

Danny has also been desperate to add a SF which tells me that as good as Crowder is he knows we need quality depth at the SF and maybe even an upgrade over Crowder.

The Celtics backcourt is pretty solid but we do not have one backcourt player coming off the bench that can knock down the three ball with any measure of consistency.    Maybe RJ will be that guy or many Young will learn to dribble with his right hand but I think DA must address our 3 point shooting woes now.

We need a starting quality center.  But what type of center are we looking for?  There will be ongoing debate about that.  If we want a stretch 5 then Al Horford would be at the top of the list but if we are looking for a strong inside defender and rebounder than Whiteside or Howard names should be in the hat.  These players however are just as likely to remain with their teams.    Will some team out there be willing to trade their center to us?  Has Cousins worn out his welcome in Sac?  Would Danny dare to make a gamble on him?  What would it cost us? He can play both inside and out.  I am not suggesting that we should make a run at him but at the same time he cannot be eliminated based on the fact that he is an asshole.

The bottom line is that there are so many moving parts that it is absolutely impossible to foresee how the team will be built for next year.

Above all else we need a scorer that can put the damn ball in the hole better than anyone else on this team.    After that add when and where needed but we must move the needle on our ability to shoot the ball at a high percentage.  Scoring would be my # 1 priority.

Players like KO and just about everyone else can be traded for the right deal.  Afterall, if you can trade Al Jefferson you can definitely trade  Sullinger and/or KO.  We need full time front court players.  I love IT and Bradley and Smart but they could be dealt too.

dboss

I have developed a liking for alot of our players, but agree we need upgrades everywhere....agree with everything in this post. If we could trade Jefferson, Perk, Rondo, Pierce and KG then as good as certain players are, if its for a big upgrade, anyone could be available.

dboss wrote:The off-season for Boston will be the most active that we have seen in recent memory.
There are three areas that will have a profound and long term impact on the team.  Those areas have been discussed in various threads and I thought it would be a good idea to put together a summary of what the team will be dealing with.  Those three areas include:

The 2016 NBA Draft and Trades
2016 NBA free agency

Trades will occur during the draft and that will continue into February, 2017.

All of these activities are tied together as one will affect the other.  As we review these events I think the first thing we need to do is to establish a positional wish list that we can agree on and then debate which players would be the best fit.  While adding new players will happen this year we still do not know which players will be traded or renounced or re-signed.  There are 5 players on this team whose future with the Celtics are in question.  Although there are no untouchables, these 5 players will require some contract related activity.

Amir Johnson, Jared Sullinger, Evan Turner, Tyler Zeller and Jonas Jerebko are those players that the Celtics have to make a decision about. Danny felt it was better to play out the year before making any major moves.  The trade deadline came and went but now the Celtics have no choice but to reshuffle the deck.  Let's take a look at each of these players in more detail.

Amir Johnson was the only addition to the team that has played any meaningful minutes.  The Celtics control a $12 million dollar team option.  Amir has averaged 7.4 PPG, 6.1 rebounds and 1.1 Blocks.  He has led the team in FG percentage at .59% but was very poor at the line at 56% and horrible from behind the arc at 24%.  In May he will turn 29 years old.  Amir pretty much played as expected.  He’s a mature unselfish player that swings between PF and center.  He runs the floor pretty well and primarily scores in the post with his jump hook.  That is pretty much it for him on offense.   He is 8th on the team in shot attempts and his MPG were down to 22.8.    Defensively he will still comes up with big defensive plays and does a fairly good job helping out on the weak side.

My Take $12 million per for a part time player is a lot of loot even though the salary cap is going up.  Amir however is one of those players that you would want on your team.  If you let him walk he is not going to get $12 million a year from anyone.  His production just does not equate with that level of salary.   However if we do not draft a big the Celtics should consider putting together a 2-3 year deal in the $8 million dollar range.

Jared Sullinger is very likely to be traded.  He is a one trick Pony.  He can rebound.  His MPG if you noticed has gone down from 27 to 23.7  He continues to be a very unreliable shooter/scorer averaging 10.4 MPG in this his 4th year with the club and his .437% FG percentage is low as is his free throw shooting 64% and of course his inability to make the 3 ball has not changed as he is shooting below 30%.  To his credit he is not hoisting as many this year.  Sully’s problem is impossible to miss.  It is all around him.    He cannot consistently contribute in the pace and space game.  Watching him try to run up and down especially when trying to get back on defense is a disgrace.  I have seen enough of him to assume that he has very little if any upside.    It is time to part ways now and his replacement is already on the team. (Jordan Mickey)  I look for Boston to attempt to move Sullybelly in a draft day trade.

Next to IT I can make a case that Ivan Turner is the 2nd most valuable player on the team.   I know that we falsely make statements that Marcus Smart can play at the point or at the 2 or you can even slide him into the 3 spot.  Guess what.. none of that is true because Marcus is not a good PG or a good shooting guard or a good SF.  Evan Turner is the most versatile player on the team and he is the only 3 position player on the team.  So he wants $15 mill I hear.  He is not that versatile.

I would offer him $10-$12mill 5 year contract.   If he does not like that then I would let him walk.  He does have some weaknesses like shooting from distance although lately he has been hitting from the corners. He still goes into his turnover funk without warning. He is still primarily best on the ball with ok but not great defense.     We need to add a SF and Rosier looks about ready to be the full time BU PG behind IT.  Bottom line I would not sweat over losing him in free agency.  

Tyler Zeller remains a BU center.   If we draft or trade or sign a Center then Zeller can head out of town as well.   If we wanted to keep him something in the $6.5 -$7.5 million per year seems about right.

Jonas is making less then MLE money.   Sometimes I like him and other times I can't stand watching him play.  If Amir is gone I would keep Jonas but if Amir stays I would use that money on someone else.  

The draft is coming up soon but first the Celtics will get to see where their picks are going to be.  The Nets pick will be 3rd or 4th depending on what happens in the next game.  Of course the lotto could kick us all the way down to 7th. The Suns have no good reason to win another game but I respect that they have kept everyone guessing by winning a couple of games recently.  Either pick should provide an opportunity to draft a quality player that should be able to make a contribution immediately.  That pick also could be dangled about as part of a trade to land a quality starter.  It would need to be a sure thing if DA uses that pick or any of the other 2 Nets picks over the next few years.

But because DA has two other first rounders plus the first pick in the 2nd round he should be able to barter his way through a trade without giving up The Nets pick this year.  Ther3 are of course exceptions.

Some of the observations I have seen with respect to the way the Celtics match up with other team that also space the floor is that we need several pieces to beat these teams on a consistent basis.

Our 4 and 5 positions  need to be upgraded.  We basically have a platoon system .  If you look at MPG, Sully averages the most minutes of any of our PF/C and that is just 23 a game.  We do not have a big time player in our front court and it is very noticeable when the Celtics go up against a team that has more athletic players in their front court.

Danny has also been desperate to add a SF which tells me that as good as Crowder is he knows we need quality depth at the SF and maybe even an upgrade over Crowder.

The Celtics backcourt is pretty solid but we do not have one backcourt player coming off the bench that can knock down the three ball with any measure of consistency.    Maybe RJ will be that guy or many Young will learn to dribble with his right hand but I think DA must address our 3 point shooting woes now.

We need a starting quality center.  But what type of center are we looking for?  There will be ongoing debate about that.  If we want a stretch 5 then Al Horford would be at the top of the list but if we are looking for a strong inside defender and rebounder than Whiteside or Howard names should be in the hat.  These players however are just as likely to remain with their teams.    Will some team out there be willing to trade their center to us?  Has Cousins worn out his welcome in Sac?  Would Danny dare to make a gamble on him?  What would it cost us? He can play both inside and out.  I am not suggesting that we should make a run at him but at the same time he cannot be eliminated based on the fact that he is an asshole.

The bottom line is that there are so many moving parts that it is absolutely impossible to foresee how the team will be built for next year.

Above all else we need a scorer that can put the damn ball in the hole better than anyone else on this team.    After that add when and where needed but we must move the needle on our ability to shoot the ball at a high percentage.  Scoring would be my # 1 priority.

Players like KO and just about everyone else can be traded for the right deal.  Afterall, if you can trade Al Jefferson you can definitely trade  Sullinger and/or KO.  We need full time front court players.  I love IT and Bradley and Smart but they could be dealt too.

dboss

 Regarding your below statement I would note that only I of the 3 options that you list is totally controlled by the Celtics. And that"s their draft selections. The other 2 require consent of other parties.  I certainly am hopeful that Danny can  put together some deals this year - ( He has the chips) but if not this year the window of opportunity will still be open over the next 2-3 years at the least.   No need to rush the rebuilt effort.

 "The off-season for Boston will be the most active that we have seen in recent memory.
There are three areas that will have a profound and long term impact on the team.  Those areas have been discussed in various threads and I thought it would be a good idea to put together a summary of what the team will be dealing with.  Those three areas include:

The 2016 NBA Draft and Trades
2016 NBA free agency"


  swish

Swish,

I think if the two word "We hope" are put in front of dboss's comments it will read correctly. We are hoping Danny will do something. Everything appears favorable. But that has been all of our problems trying to 2nd guess Danny and his moves. No one saw the KG/Ray Allen move on the front end or the back end for that matter, nor any of the other major moves Danny has made. That's why he is paid what he is paid and we are paid nothing for our efforts!

Danny still doesn't have to do anything this off season. If the cards don't look right, he can sit pat. He has three choices. Do nothing, do something expected/mediocre or go for a KG/RA type grand slam. Most of us squirmed through the trade deadline and got nothing. We were hoping that was going to be it. The Big Deal. Well, it turned out to be big deal and business as usual.

Regardless, we will be here to analyze it from every angle. That's what makes this site so great!

It's funny this season because the playoffs are almost in the way for us. We know we're not likely to bring home Banner 18, but our future lies beyond this year's playoffs.

db

I will say if he does do nothing this off season with all that is potentially out there and with what we have, he may put his job in jeopardy. This off season should move through Boston with all the perceived power we have at our disposal.

db

Hey Swish

I think the contract situations are under the control of the Celtics with the exception of Turner who will be an unrestricted free agent.  

Trades and signing free agents will be the most daunting task.

Danny also has to decide how many of the 7 draft picks will suit up for the Celtics next year.

I expect to see Danny sell some picks, Package several together to move up or Package several together along with a player or two to make a big time trade.

The amount of activity will be profound.  I guarantee that there will be no stagnation on this board during the dog days of summer.  I truly believe that we have an opportunity to go from being a playoff team to a becoming a contender.

Side note:  Will GS resign SF Harrison Barnes?

dboss

dbrown4 wrote:I will say if he does do nothing this off season with all that is potentially out there and with what we have, he may put his job in jeopardy.  This off season should move through Boston with all the perceived power we have at our disposal.  

db

IMO, if Danny does nothing big (no fireworks elgrande) it may be with the owner's input and approval. Therefore, his job would not be in jeopardy. This off-season may be just another step towards contention and not the big leap many of us want. This time, the actual goal should be contention over a longer period of time than what the 07-08 season upgrades brought.

I think it was swish said that there are three avenues for improvement; draft, trade and free agency. Danny only has total control over the draft. He has, however, set us up quite nicely for the other two options.

gyso

dbrown4 wrote:I will say if he does do nothing this off season with all that is potentially out there and with what we have, he may put his job in jeopardy. This off season should move through Boston with all the perceived power we have at our disposal.

db

Well you need to have a dancing partner too

AND that DA has no control over, might take her out to the nicest dinner, best movie, but later when things start to get hot.....DA gets a peck on the cheek and a nice..........goodnight.

beat

beat wrote:

dbrown4 wrote:I will say if he does do nothing this off season with all that is potentially out there and with what we have, he may put his job in jeopardy.  This off season should move through Boston with all the perceived power we have at our disposal.  

db

Well you need to have a dancing partner too

AND that DA has no control over, might take her out to the  nicest dinner, best movie, but later when things start to get hot.....DA gets a peck on the cheek and a nice..........goodnight.

beat

Ha

Dboss