Re: I'll predict it now, Celtics draft Jaylen Brown at 3

by **worcester** Fri Jun 17, 2016 5:42 pm

I do like durability in a draft pick. Adam Morrison was great in college, but his diabetic fragility made him a bust as a pro. There are too many to list them all - Greg Oden is a good starting point.

by **arambone** Sat Jun 18, 2016 1:35 pm

Chad Ford wrote:Reportedly strong workouts have shot the 6-foot-7 Brown up analysts’ draft boards.

“Jaylen Brown had an incredible workout for (the Pelicans) and is a guy that I think there’s a lot of interest in on just sheer upside of adding an elite talent next to Anthony Davis,” Ford said on a conference call.

Ford said Brown could go as high as third to Boston.

“I think if (the Celtics) go upside, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go Jaylen Brown,” Ford said. “He fits a need. He’s a wing who’s very athletic. He did not shoot the ball well at Cal this year, but he shot the ball very well in workouts, including the workout that he did with the Celtics. And if you’re saying at No. 3, ‘Look, let’s just swing for the guy who could be a superstar down the road and we’ll take a risk,’ then Brown seems like a pretty good calculated risk.”

http://www.theneworleansadvocate.com/sports/pelicans/16140466-171/dont-count-out-jaylen-brown-and-dragan-bender-when-the-pelicans-make-the-nba-drafts-sixth-pick-espns

by **cowens/oldschool** Sat Jun 18, 2016 1:36 pm

I'm not sold on Jae Crowder even when he is healthy, good hardnosed player, unless you have all stars at other positions which we don't, hes not a good enough SF to get you near the promised land. Jalen Brown is only a freshman, he seems to have the attributes and will get alot better. We are not at these workouts, but I would love a Lebron, Kawhi, Paul George, Pierce, Kobe, McGrady type wing.

by **steve3344** Sat Jun 18, 2016 2:52 pm

cowens/oldschool wrote:I'm not sold on Jae Crowder even when he is healthy, good hardnosed player, unless you have all stars at other positions which we don't, hes not a good enough SF to get you near the promised land. Jalen Brown is only a freshman, he seems to have the attributes and will get alot better. We are not at these workouts, but I would love a Lebron, Kawhi, Paul George, Pierce, Kobe, McGrady type wing.

Who wouldn't??? Those are all Hall Of Fame players, given a few more years for the active ones you listed (Kawhi, George) or except for injury (McGrady). EVERYONE wants a HOF SF.

by **arambone** Sat Jun 18, 2016 3:25 pm

cowens/oldschool wrote:I'm not sold on Jae Crowder even when he is healthy, good hardnosed player, unless you have all stars at other positions which we don't, hes not a good enough SF to get you near the promised land. Jalen Brown is only a freshman, he seems to have the attributes and will get alot better. We are not at these workouts, but I would love a Lebron, Kawhi, Paul George, Pierce, Kobe, McGrady type wing.

Yeah Brown seems to have Vince Carter like athleticism, with a better head on his shoulders. Vince wasn't a hard worker until he got old.

by **bobheckler** Sat Jun 18, 2016 3:28 pm

Scott Souza
@Scott_Souza about 6 minutes ago
#Celtics Austin Ainge on Marcus Smart: He was guy we kind of wanted to take, and we all liked him a lot, and he was horrible in his workout.

Reply Retweet Like

Scott Souza
@Scott_Souza 4 minutes ago
#Celtics Austin Ainge on 2nd Marcus Smart #NBADraft workout w/ C's: Significantly better. He made shots. He was the Marcus that (we'd seen).

Reply Retweet Like

Scott Souza
@Scott_Souza 3 minutes ago
The #Celtics Marcus Smart anecdote comes amid report Cal's Jaylen Brown will be working out with C's for a second time this week. #NBADraft

Reply Retweet Like

bob

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by **dboss** Sat Jun 18, 2016 6:21 pm

A second workout is a clear signal that Brown is one of the finalist if Boston keeps the 3rd pick.

Dboss

by **cowens/oldschool** Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:00 am

arambone wrote:
cowens/oldschool wrote:I'm not sold on Jae Crowder even when he is healthy, good hardnosed player, unless you have all stars at other positions which we don't, hes not a good enough SF to get you near the promised land. Jalen Brown is only a freshman, he seems to have the attributes and will get alot better. We are not at these workouts, but I would love a Lebron, Kawhi, Paul George, Pierce, Kobe, McGrady type wing.

Yeah Brown seems to have Vince Carter like athleticism, with a better head on his shoulders. Vince wasn't a hard worker until he got old.

we need a superstar type player that when things break down in the heat of the game, you can just give him the ball and that player can create for himself in a one on one fashion or when doubled create for others at some level....a wing would be preferable, because the great wings can score and create from anywhere on the floor, the ability to beat your man one on one is not a bad thing. 3's sure? hes also got to have ability to face up and drive and post up too....and he can't be a pussy like Jeff Green!!!!

by **bobheckler** Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:30 am

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4723335/not-the-model-choice-would-celtics-roll-dice-with-jaylen-brown

Not the model choice: Would Celtics roll dice with Jaylen Brown?

9:46 PM PT

Chris Forsberg
ESPN Staff Writer

The Boston Celtics, maybe more than any team in the league, embrace analytics. Yet team decision-makers often remind us that you can't make decisions based on numbers alone. There's a balance to be found between what your eyes tell you and what the numbers suggest.

That is why California forward Jaylen Brown is one of the more fascinating players in this year's draft. If the Celtics are interested in Brown with the No. 3 pick, the team will be forced to essentially choose a side of the fence. The eyeball test with Brown shows a 19-year-old with intriguing raw athleticism, while multiple computer models suggest Brown will struggle to make an impact at the next level.

There's a buzz about Brown in these final days before the draft on the strength of his pre-draft workouts. ESPN draft guru Chad Ford even moved Brown up to No. 3 in his latest mock draft.

Ford noted that multiple teams deemed Brown "stellar" in recent workouts and said on air that, despite a shaky freshman season, Brown might have the highest ceiling of any player who is expected to be available when the Celtics are on the clock.

There is understandable intrigue with Brown. Still a teenager, he has an NBA-ready body and maturity beyond his years. Read this story on Brown and you come away thinking how Boston coach Brad Stevens would love a kid who said, "I’m a big believer that it takes 20,000 hours to be great" -- because Stevens is on record as a subscriber to Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000-hour theory.

Jaylen Brown has a body ready for the NBA, but analytics seem to suggest that his game isn't quite ready. John Locher/AP

It's easy to talk yourself into Brown and what the finished project might someday be. But multiple computer projections raise all sorts of caution flags after Brown's lackluster freshman season.

Consider this: The six players ahead of Brown on Ford's top 100 big board -- Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn, Marquese Chriss, and Dragan Bender -- all rank inside the top 10 in Kevin Pelton's stats-aided draft projections. Brown, meanwhile, plummets all the way from seventh on Ford's big board to No. 39 in Pelton's model.

More condemning is this: In the stats-only portion of Pelton's model, Brown ranks an impossibly low 101st among all draft-eligible prospects with a WARP (wins above replacement player) of minus-0.5. For the sake of comparison, Bender ranks second in that model with a WARP of plus-3.4.

Take a stroll through the archive of draft WARP projections and that mark gets even more worrisome. While a decent number of players have been taken in the first-round teens and 20s with a negative WARP, only two players have been selected in the top 10 with a negative WARP since 2006 -- Austin Rivers (minus-0.1) at No. 10 in 2012 and Joe Alexander (minus-0.1) at No. 8 in 2008.

Rivers, traded twice (including to and from Boston), has found a bench role with his father's depth-lacking Los Angeles Clippers. Alexander has played more games in the D-League (80) than the NBA (67) and is now toiling overseas.

Brown scored alarmingly low in Nylon Calculus' projection model. Author Andrew Johnson noted, "Brown leads the 'Do Not Want' list, his overall play all year indicated less than a starter performance at the college level. In my training model, not a single player went from this level of play in their draft year to become a star in the NBA."

Then there's Steve Shea's College Prospect Ratings, which also uses on-court performance to project NBA potential. CPR was bullish on some of Boston's most recent draft picks, such as Terry Rozier, R.J. Hunter and Jordan Mickey last season (all three ranked in the top 15). Among this year's class, Brown ranks 36th overall -- sandwiched between Weber State's Joel Bolomboy (42nd on Ford's big board) and Stony Brook's Jameel Warney (78th on Ford's big board).

Those are less-than-inspiring outlooks, especially when you're a team looking to hit a home run with a top-three pick.

Not all draft models are completely sour on Brown. ESPN's analytics group has a projection that incorporates adjusted game stats with scout's rankings and pegs Brown 11th among all players who competed collegiately. Still, this suggests that -- excluding international bodies -- there are still eight other players beyond Simmons and Ingram who deserve attention at the top of the draft before Brown.

What's more, that same analytics model suggested that Brown has the highest bust percentage (38 percent) of any player in the top 18. Brown is given only an 8 percent chance of being an All-Star and a 21 percent chance of being a starter over the first five seasons of his career. The numbers for being a bench player or bust is nearly 72 percent in that same span.

The lingering question: Are the Celtics and their number-crunchers at their BIA -- Basketball Intelligence Agency -- willing to look past the caution flags? Is the risk worth the reward with Brown?

A survey of Boston's draft picks since 2010 reveals only four players who were drafted with a negative WARP. Other than Fab Melo being chosen at No. 22 in 2012 (when the Celtics had back-to-back picks), the other three were taken with picks No. 45 or later. What's more, two were overseas stashes (Colton Iverson and Marcus Thornton), while the other was cut in January of his rookie season (Kris Joseph). As for Melo, the Celtics dumped him after one year, and following an unimpressive season in the D-League, Melo wound up playing in Brazil.

Celtics' draftees by the numbers

A look at Celtics draftees, their WARP and rank, and where they were picked in the draft, since 2010:

PLAYER...............YEAR.....WARP..........RANK..........PICK
Terry Rozier-----------2015----1.1-----------33------------16
R.J. Hunter------------2015----2.7------------6-------------28
Jordan Mickey---------2015----0.1-----------52------------33
Marcus Thornton------2015----0.2-----------56------------45
Marcus Smart---------2014----3.6------------1--------------6
James Young----------2014----0.8-----------31-------------17
Kelly Olynyk-----------2013----1.1-----------33-------------13
Colton Iverson---------2013----1.8----------69-------------53
Jared Sullinger---------2012---3.1------------2--------------21
Fab Melo---------------2012-----0.4---------50-------------22
Kris Joseph------------2012-----0.4---------51-------------51
JaJuan Johnson--------2011----1.9-----------14--------------27
E'Twaun Moore---------2011----0.4-----------48-------------55
Avery Bradley---------2010-----0.3----------48--------------19
Luke Harangody-------2010-----1.6----------21--------------52

(MY NOTE: The WARP figures that have underlines under the dash before the number signify a MINUS value. Thornton, Iverson, Melo, Joseph)

WARP is certainly not the deciding element in Boston's draft-decision process, especially not for a young player with a limited college resume. Avery Bradley, who was an All-Defense first-teamer this year, was a mere plus-0.3 WARP when the Celtics snagged him at No. 19 in 2010. On the other end of the spectrum, JaJuan Johnson was a respectable plus-1.9 WARP, but he played only 36 games his rookie season before bouncing out of the NBA. He's been toiling in the D-League ever since.

During an appearance on Boston sports radio WEEI on Monday, ESPN hoops expert Jeff Goodman said of Brown: "My gut says [Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge is] not going to take a guy that’s not a skilled guy right now. ... Physically, he’s got a great body, already 6-foot-7, 225 [pounds]. He’s a man, you could put him in there today. The equivalent I’ll give you with him is Stanley Johnson, the Pistons rookie who kind of looked like a man-child. But Stanley Johnson has proven that he can make shots; Jaylen Brown hasn’t. That would scare me if I were the Celtics, to bring on another, really, nonshooter at this point. He may develop into a decent shooter."

Brown might ultimately use all these negative projections as motivation. Even at his young age, there is a chance he'll contribute quicker than some in the 2016 class because of his NBA-ready body. It's worth noting that just about everyone available at No. 3 will have some sort of question lingering around them.

Yet the Celtics would really have to trust their eyes to roll the dice on Brown that early in the draft.

bob
MY NOTE: I don't think we need another non-shooter. I am very clear, in my head, as to what we need. We need shooting and length and, if we don't keep Sully, some beef to replace him. We don't need to get younger. We don't need to get more athletic. We need a shooter, so that bubbles Murray and Hield to the top of the list for #3 for shooters and someone like Luwawe #16; and Dragan Bender @ #3 for length or Thon Maker at #16 or #23 for length. If he takes Bender, he should go for a shooter with the later picks and if he takes a shooter with #3 then he should go for length with the later picks. This is still true if he trades some or all of the picks. We still need shooters and length and not an athletic non-rim protecting non-shooter. Unless he's going to sign-and-trade Evan Turner and James Young for a shooter or length. Gawd! The possibilities are endless. Just 2 more days. Halle-freaking-lujah!!

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by **dboss** Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:39 pm

Bob

This is the reason why I have stated several times that Brown should not be our 3rd pick.

The two best shooters are Hield and Murray. The pick should be used for one of them.

However there is so much chatter about Boston trading the pick I have a sickly feeling that Danny is going to trade the pick. There are some shooters later in the draft so that may be a consideration.

But Hield is still at the top of my wish list because he is not just a good shooter. he is a great shooter and scorer. Unlike Brown who was a poor in HS or bender that has an insignificant body of work.

If we do not get Hield i want Murray.

I think we add that shooter first and then fill in the rest of our needs. I think we end up keeping 3/8 picks this year.

dboss

by **bobheckler** Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:59 pm

dboss wrote:Bob

This is the reason why I have stated several times that Brown should not be our 3rd pick.

The two best shooters are Hield and Murray. The pick should be used for one of them.

However there is so much chatter about Boston trading the pick I have a sickly feeling that Danny is going to trade the pick. There are some shooters later in the draft so that may be a consideration.

But Hield is still at the top of my wish list because he is not just a good shooter. he is a great shooter and scorer. Unlike Brown who was a poor in HS or bender that has an insignificant body of work.

If we do not get Hield i want Murray.

I think we add that shooter first and then fill in the rest of our needs. I think we end up keeping 3/8 picks this year.

dboss

dboss,

If Danny does not trade the pick, and there are shooters later in the draft, then why wouldn't he take Bender with #3? The only other "Bender-like" player in this draft is Thon Maker. You can argue back-and-forth about them but they seem to be the only two that are comparable in length, skills and age. Both Bender and Maker can change the game. How well they change the game will depend upon their future development, but both are definitely "out-of-the-box" picks.

bob

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by **kdp59** Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:08 pm

Chriss will probably get picked over Bender and Maker.

I mean if you want a guy with length and hops (plays above the rim) can block shots and shoot from the outside, he will likely be the first off the board.

I think you at least have to but Chriss in the discussion, if that is the type of player you want on draft day.

I think Hield will go after the top 5 , not that he's really dropping just that I think he fits teams better there. There could also eb a team willing to trade up for Hield of course.

I think Dunn is the guy someone will trade to get myself.

by **bobheckler** Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:21 pm

kdp59 wrote:Chriss will probably get picked over Bender and Maker.

I mean if you want a guy with length and hops (plays above the rim) can block shots and shoot from the outside, he will likely be the first off the board.

I think you at least have to but Chriss in the discussion, if that is the type of player you want on draft day.

I think Hield will go after the top 5 , not that he's really dropping just that I think he fits teams better there. There could also eb a team willing to trade up for Hield of course.

I think Dunn is the guy someone will trade to get myself.

kdp,

You may be right here about Chriss being picked ahead of Bender (and certainly ahead of Maker), but Chriss doesn't have either of their ball handling or passing skills. Chriss is more of a typical NBA PF (although only 233#) while the other two are almost point forwards.

bob

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by **dboss** Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:22 pm

Bob

I am not convinced that Bender is good enough to be drafted that high. I like Maker better than Bender but I would not take maker at # 3 either.

#3 has to be a sure fire pick. The Celtics should not screw around with #3. There are always a few surprises in every draft but the best indication of what to anticipate is based on the body of work that you have in front of you.

For example if Bender was a prime time player on his team and had the stats to back it up and the pundits and the Celtics felt like he is really good then I say go for it.

But there is no way in hell that i would risk the # 3 pick on a guy who averages 4 pts and 2-3 rebounds per game. I do not want to hear anything about his potential or upside. His productivity is so low you cannot even begin to project where he will end up. It is probably more likely that Bender will be a big time bust. When you draft at # 3 that player should be ready to play from day one. In truth that player should be a starter caliber player that will perhaps be a solid rotation player his first year. If that player is not ready you need to be absolutely certain that he will become a great player

Bob there are shooters later in the draft but if you have a chance to draft a GREAT shooter then i would not pass that up given the fact that is the most prominent weakness on the team other than a rim protector. If you are able to have a high pick you should be able to draft the best at 1-5 positions. Simmons will be gone although Ingram could slip to 3. Brown at SF is out of the picture. We have 3 PG's on the team already which leaves out Dunn. Unless you want to go PF (Chris) the only option is to add a great shooter which is actually a primary need.

dboss

by **cowens/oldschool** Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:52 pm

I agree with all your points dboss, but we are not at these workouts and we also need an upgrade at SF, Brown might have fixed some mechanics on his shot and he is lights out athletic....hopefully we can also get a rim protector later. If Hield has shown great ability in these workouts and we draft him, I'm happy with him too.

by **bobheckler** Tue Jun 21, 2016 7:18 pm

cowens/oldschool wrote:I agree with all your points dboss, but we are not at these workouts and we also need an upgrade at SF, Brown might have fixed some mechanics on his shot and he is lights out athletic....hopefully we can also get a rim protector later. If Hield has shown great ability in these workouts and we draft him, I'm happy with him too.

Cow,

I'm on board with you. One of the reasons why some people are leery of Bender is because we haven't been seeing him play in the NCAAs and, with the exception of International, I don't know anybody on this board who watches any Euro-ball. Danny has been scouting Bender for a couple of years. He knew about Maker before this year too. They are watching kids in High School because they could be one-and-done in college and they need to have some opinion of them that pre-dates that single year.

The rap on Simmons is that he doesn't have a strong motor and isn't a great shooter. He could be another Jeff Green.
The rap on Ingram is that he's a 6'10", 195# toothpick, and 195# is REALLY light. If Maker needs weight at 7'1", 215#...RJ is 185# and 5" shorter.
The rap on Bender is that he's only 18, played on a team that's the Celtics of Europe and they want to win it all, nothing less. Screw development.
The rap on Hield is that he isn't athletic and at 6'5" doesn't have a physical advantage for his position (and he can only guard one).
The rap on Murray is that he isn't a good defender.
The rap on Brown is that he isn't a good shooter.
The rap on fill_in_the_blank is that he isn't a good fill_in_the_blank.

They all have something that makes them less than a sure thing. There is no Towns or Davis or even Griffin in this draft. Nobody is a lock to make an all-star except until after the current crop retires.

We have to rely on Danny, his staff and Red and Sam.

bob

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by **arambone** Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:10 pm

Adam Himmelsbach
‏@AdamHimmelsbach
Jaylen Brown said he did the Celtics' 3-point drill at his workout and made 76/100. (Sharpshooter Jamal Murray made 79)

by **dboss** Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:43 pm

Average height for SG's in the NBA is between 6' 4" and 6' 7"

dboss

by **arambone** Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:23 pm

Here's a pretty good video of Brown on the court with Isiah Thomas. At one point Brown swishes like 7 (or something) corner 3s in a row, while Zeke is talking about how they used to force Larry Bird into the right corner so he had to shoot into the bright light behind the basket.

http://www.nba.com/video/channels/draft/2016/06/22/20160621-draft-hq-thomas-jaylen-brown.nba/?ls=nbahpsplit4

by **bobheckler** Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:33 pm

Jared Weiss
Jared Weiss
@CLNS_JaredWeiss about 5 minutes ago
Ainge trying to trick the Colangelos into drafting Dunn #1 is brilliant. twitter.com/GoodmanESPN/st…

Reply Retweet Like

Jeff Goodman – Verified account ‏@GoodmanESPN

The two guys that Ainge and Celtics really like if they keep the No. 3 pick are Kris Dunn and Jaylen Brown, sources told ESPN.
5:08 PM - 22 Jun 2016
112 RETWEETS78 LIKES

bob
MY NOTE: I don't know if this is true but it sure does sound like Danny. You like Dunn? Then you better pick him with #1, and Simmons falls to us, because you won't be able to get him through trade with Phoenix @ #4 etc because we're taking him.

Or, if you do want him AND Simmons, then it will cost you Okafur or Noel straight up.

Heheheh. Glad I don't play poker with Danny (although a couple of the guys I do play with have pretty big dorsal fins too).

.

by **tjmakz** Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:52 pm

Dunn is nowhere close to the prospect Simmons is.
I see no chance Dunn is drafted #1.
Dunn is 22 and not a 3 point shooter.
I don't think Boston will draft Dunn either.

by **bobheckler** Wed Jun 22, 2016 9:31 pm

tjmakz wrote:Dunn is nowhere close to the prospect Simmons is.
I see no chance Dunn is drafted #1.
Dunn is 22 and not a 3 point shooter.
I don't think Boston will draft Dunn either.

TJ,

That may be true, but Philly needs a good point guard badly.

I don't think Dunn will be picked #1 either but sometimes needs trump talent, especially when Philly already has a stockpile of talent.

bob

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by **tjmakz** Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:35 pm

bobheckler wrote:
tjmakz wrote:Dunn is nowhere close to the prospect Simmons is.
I see no chance Dunn is drafted #1.
Dunn is 22 and not a 3 point shooter.
I don't think Boston will draft Dunn either.

TJ,

That may be true, but Philly needs a good point guard badly.

I don't think Dunn will be picked #1 either but sometimes needs trump talent, especially when Philly already has a stockpile of talent.

bob

.

Simmons is a 6'10" point guard with incredible strength and athleticism. There's just no way they can bypass his talents for Kris Dunn.
Simmons might not ever be the scorer Ingram is but he will be a triple double threat when he is on the court.

Philly has more than $50 million to spend this summer. If they throw $15-$18 million at Rondo or Mike Conley I think one of them will sign with Philly.

by **arambone** Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:30 pm

Simmons doesn't have incredible strength. He weighed 240 last fall, but lost 15 lbs during the season. Now he's back up to 240 and bragging about gaining 15-20 lbs. Until the season starts and he drops back down to 225-230.

by **tjmakz** Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:58 pm

arambone wrote:Simmons doesn't have incredible strength. He weighed 240 last fall, but lost 15 lbs during the season. Now he's back up to 240 and bragging about gaining 15-20 lbs. Until the season starts and he drops back down to 225-230.

I don't know what Simmons weighs. I doubt you do either.
When LSU played Kentucky this year, Simmons often guarded Scal and often pushed him off of the block.
Some say Simmons weighs closer to 255-260 which means he has gained 15 pounds.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/sixers/NBA-draft-profile-Ben-Simmons.html

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