Celtics have many options to consider in complicated NBA free agent market

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2016/06/celtics_have_many_options_to_consider_in_complicated_nba_free_agent_market




Celtics have many options to consider in complicated NBA free agent market


Mark Murphy


Sunday, June 05, 2016




The Celtics foundation, with Brad Stevens under contract for the next six years and Danny Ainge also signed to a fresh extension, is like bedrock.

Now, when a free agent comes calling, he knows that he gets one of the game’s bright young coaches for the length of his own contract. And like most other teams in what is expected to be a cash-rich summer, money won’t be a problem for the Celtics if the right player likes them back.

Now that free agency is less than a month away, here’s some of the issues the Celtics face once they get past the June 23 draft:


•    Why this particular Big Fish will stay out at sea:

When former Celtic Kendrick Perkins said earlier this season that he had a confidentiality agreement not to say where Kevin Durant preferred to go for free agency, he was joking, folks. Perk, as any good friend would, simply didn’t want to put words in the mouth of his former teammate.

The chances are that Durant had no idea at the time, anyway. He was in the midst of a pre-free agency tour in which each stop had the Thunder forward repeating the phrase “Great to be here” more often than Kanye West on the road.

“I love Boston,” had already been preceded by “I love New York,” and “Great to be in LA,” complete with a smile and praise for each organization and their fans.

Durant had to say these things. No sense in offending would-be buyers in the market place, which he will most likely test next summer. To repeat, Durant will most likely re-sign with Oklahoma City this offseason, especially now that he came within one game of reaching the NBA Finals. He’ll get his 10th year of service, a significant bump on the max salary scale, and reemerge for a contract next summer that should be worth in excess of $200 million.

That’s when the Celtics — who do indeed have a legitimate shot at the forward, provided they acquire the necessary additional pieces — will take their place in line.

This summer will instead be a time for suitors such as the Celtics to make a first impression with presentations. Durant is expected to listen, file away his early thoughts, and play one final year with Russell Westbrook. It’s an outside chance, but maybe they actually win an NBA title together this time, in which case leaving would be impossible.

But notice that no one has attempted to attach Westbrook’s name to the Celtics in 2017. If ever a player had “Lakers” written into his future, it’s this guy.


•    A cash-flush market doesn’t mean the C’s will automatically overpay:

Ainge has to be careful here. The C’s president of basketball operations has three recently-signed core players — Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder — with extremely team-friendly contracts. So team-friendly, in fact, that a little resentment could creep in if a free agent arrives with a salary far more than his abilities would normally dictate.

Though the team has looked into bringing in Al Horford, it doesn’t make sense if, as expected, the Atlanta center asks for maximum money. At this stage in his career Horford isn’t worth more to the Celtics than Thomas, Crowder or Bradley — the latter now a first-team all-NBA defender. As evidenced by his play against the Celtics and Cavaliers this postseason, Horford is no longer a prime offensive option, and maybe never has been.

If Horford agrees to reasonable money, then maybe the Celtics land a 30-year-old rebounder and defender who fits the NBA’s new criteria as a small-ball center. Though Horford has always chafed at having to play the so-called No. 5, that’s what he is now. For the right price.


•    Why re-signing Evan Turner isn’t a lock:

Though Turner doesn’t necessarily agree, he just finished what most observers consider the finest season of his career. New York’s Phil Jackson is said to be a fan, and Turner’s versatility and playmaking ability, minus a legitimate 3-pointer, has opened a lot of eyes across the league. He’s no longer the inconsistent, occasionally wild player that coaches in Philadelphia and Indiana couldn’t quite figure out.

Stevens told Turner that he would put in a word with Danny Ainge, meaning the Celtics coach not only values him, but has come to rely on the swingman in certain ways. Turner also said he will value winning over more money. But he also reportedly replaced agent David Falk with Kevin Bradbury — a big shift at a time when Turner has an important choice to make. Players less valuable than him will get overpaid.


•    Harrison Barnes, a restricted free agent, may be very attainable:

Another championship for the Golden State Warriors would also be the second straight NBA title for Barnes as a supporting player. He projects as a bona fide star somewhere else, with wing-forward skills that could play a major role with the Celtics. Barnes is premium sign-and-trade material. He could become a player the Warriors are open to letting fly, especially with their own interest in Durant (and his in them).


•    Options about to hit the 2016 NBA Powerball jackpot:

Hassan Whiteside (Miami, center), Andre Drummond (Detroit, center; restricted), Bismack Boyombo (Toronto, power forward), Ryan Anderson (New Orleans, stretch-shooting big forward), Kent Bazemore (Atlanta, wing scorer), Mike Conley (Memphis, point guard)


•    Options with under-the-radar value:

Nicolas Batum (Charlotte, wing forward), Joakim Noah (Chicago, center), Dwight Howard (Houston, center), Chandler Parsons (Dallas, shooting forward)


•    An option whose market is ill-defined:

Rajon Rondo’s so-called comeback season comes at a curious point in NBA point guard history. His habits of dominating the ball, running down the shot clock and still not being able to shoot consistently will hurt his value, perhaps more than he anticipated. It’s a point guard-dominated league, and because of that most teams have found one by now. Perhaps Rondo should brush up on the triangle, after all.


bob


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I can't argue with most of it.

except H. Barnes scares me at big money. He reminds me of many of those second and third options, that can't handle it when he's asked to be "THE MAN".

if Dannys does sign him, I sure hope I dead wrong though. He would seem to fit the bill for what we need.

kdp59 wrote:I can't argue with most of it.

except H. Barnes scares me at big money. He reminds me of many of those second and third options, that can't handle it when he's asked to be "THE MAN".

if Dannys does sign him, I sure hope I dead wrong though. He would seem to fit the bill for what we need.

kdp,

I agree with your assessment of the article.

Barnes is a very good defender, he is deceptively strong for his size and frame. He is also a good face up shooter. However, he has not shown much skill at creating shots.



bob


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kdp59 wrote:I can't argue with most of it.

except H. Barnes scares me at big money. He reminds me of many of those second and third options, that can't handle it when he's asked to be "THE MAN".

if Dannys does sign him, I sure hope I dead wrong though. He would seem to fit the bill for what we need.

Harrison Barnes contract is held down by the same CBA parameters that made the deal Jimmy Butler signed last offseason seem like such a bargain to you kdp. 

Barnes will get a 4 year 'max' deal with annual salaries around 15-17 million. He's in that Haywood, Tobias Harris, Monroe, Parsons salary scale bracket. 

I mentioned Butler being appropriately paid at 16-19 million a year as a #2 star and you said he was underpaid and would make 21-23 million in the open market. I did not disagree. I see Barnes as a #3 star who would be appropriately paid at 15-17 million a year the next 4 years, especially if you then consider Thomas the #2 star making a bargain basement 12.8 million over the next 2 years. 

The C's still need the superstar #1 guy of course. However, in the 'stick to the wall' thread I proposed moves in which they land Butler, Barnes and Gallinari to add to Thomas. Between those 4 guys you'd have the makings of a team like the 2003-08 Detroit Pistons where you start a bunch of borderline all-stars #2-#3 on contenders types w/o one superstar who make it work as a TEAM and can compete with anyone for a title.

Ram wrote:

kdp59 wrote:I can't argue with most of it.

except H. Barnes scares me at big money. He reminds me of many of those second and third options, that can't handle it when he's asked to be "THE MAN".

if Dannys does sign him, I sure hope I dead wrong though. He would seem to fit the bill for what we need.

Harrison Barnes contract is held down by the same CBA parameters that made the deal Jimmy Butler signed last offseason seem like such a bargain to you kdp. 

Barnes will get a 4 year 'max' deal with annual salaries around 15-17 million. He's in that Haywood, Tobias Harris, Monroe, Parsons salary scale bracket. 

I mentioned Butler being appropriately paid at 16-19 million a year as a #2 star and you said he was underpaid and would make 21-23 million in the open market. I did not disagree. I see Barnes as a #3 star who would be appropriately paid at 15-17 million a year the next 4 years, especially if you then consider Thomas the #2 star making a bargain basement 12.8 million over the next 2 years. 

The C's still need the superstar #1 guy of course. However, in the 'stick to the wall' thread I proposed moves in which they land Butler, Barnes and Gallinari to add to Thomas. Between those 4 guys you'd have the makings of a team like the 2003-08 Detroit Pistons where you start a bunch of borderline all-stars #2-#3 on contenders types w/o one superstar who make it work as a TEAM and can compete with anyone for a title.

NICE

how to make that work trade wise would be my concern I guess.

and do we play Amir and Kelly at center this year with that group?

I guess it depends on what Golden State plans to do with him. 


They are already committed to 80 million in salaries after they pick up a 5.8m option on Livingston. The cap holds for Ezeli and Barnes put them over the cap and make them non-players in free agency. Keeping them both will put them WAY into lux tax territory (albeit for 1 year). 


If Durant stays in OKC at least one more year, as we all think he will, GS will have tons of cap space next year to add him on a max deal. But if they match offers for Barnes (4/70) and Ezeli (4/50) then they may have trouble fitting Durant in. I do think that he would be their end game as far as future dynasty building. 


So to me, it makes sense for them to let Barnes go and keep Ezeli. Bogut and Iggy are the same age and both on 1 year deals at 11 million. Ezeli is an athletic rim-protector who can play in the uptempo modern game better than Bogut can and will be cheaper than Barnes. Iggy can remain a glue bench guy for them on a reasonable IT/Bradley type contract past next year even at age 34-36.   


A 2017-18 lineup of Curry-Klay-Durant-Green and Ezeli would be unreal scary. 


I don't know if Boston can just gamble and sign Barnes to a RFA contract and hope he both chooses us as a destination AND that Golden State won't match or if the C's have to make a draft night deal for him. 


GS will probably want Bradley or Crowder and pick 16 for him. If that can be Rozier and/or Young and Jerebko with pick 16 instead, I would be ok with it. The first deal is too much IMO.

I'd hope to be playing Olynyk and Biyombo or Noah at center with that group. Amir would be used in the trade for Butler and Gibson.

Unless Gibson is not included and Amir stays of course. Then yes those are the two centers. I'd rather have Gallo/Gibson at PF and Olynyk/Biyombo (or Noah) at center than Gallo/Sully and Olynyk/Amir.