What looked like strength, may have been weakness: Post Draft Thought

Jaylen Brown, a couple of guys whose names you can't pronounce, and maybe most critically, no upgrade via trade.

Not that he didn't try, but the Danny Ainge gamble didn't pay off; at least not yet.  Last night left us with a need to remain patient.

The big backfire was triggered by a weak draft pool, which was beyond Celtic control, but was actually having 8 picks.  While most of us were thinking '8 picks, great! We'll make some moves for sure!'  Other teams turned out to be thinking '8 picks, great!  Ainge is stuck with more than he can use and is going to need to deal!'  As it turned out there were no real deals in the works, and anyone we expressed interest in dealing with wanted our #3, another pick, and half our roster in return.  We couldn't do that.  Smart negotiating on our opponents part.  If we got desperate enough, they come away with a haul, if not they're no worse off for the discussion.

The largely negative fan reaction in Boston is understandable. There was big anticipation over what this draft would bring for a couple of years. A friend of mine from Boston put it this way earlier today; "Imagine as a kid growing up, your parents said 'we're not taking a vacation this year or next. But we're saving up and the following year is going to be a big memorable one.' You wait and the time arrives, expecting a week in Disney World, and they say 'we're going to the local splash park for the day!'" Kind of sums up the fan perspective today.

Brown will be good, but is essentially Marcus Smart.  The foreign players are ironically like the foreign markets today (which I need to get back to and are only allowing time for this post), a somewhat shocking surprise with unknown consequences.

We didn't improve with the draft or by trade, not immediately or for the foreseeable future anyway.  The nucleus of last year's team will return and gel further though, and that's a positive.

NYCelt,

You are 100% correct that having the 8 draft picks was more of a burden than a plus. I called for moving at least two of them at the last trade deadline so that so many picks would not have been a burden last night. Also, having so many picks going into last night had to have been considered when turning down the 'ers offer of Noel, Covington and the 24th and 26th picks as these two extra picks would have turned the eight picks into nine total picks.

Also, correct that unless Brown shows much more than most 19 year old kids usually do against the grown men who are already professional players last night will not move us forward very much for next season. But, this was always a possibility going into last night.

I will be happy if Brown turns out to be the real deal, but am somewhat disappointed that this draft may not move us forward sooner rather than later.

The one good thing, in my opinion, is that ONE of the six draft picks will push James Young off the roster.

This draft was a shocker.

I was thinking that there is no way DA can screw this one up.

I was wrong.

I have stated before that DA had the hots for getting a SF.  After the rebuke last year he was all the more determined to make that happen.

I thought he had an opportunity to do that at 16.  

As You know I had Heild/Murray at # 3 and then Valentine/Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot @ 16.   DA had a great opportunity to draft a SG guard and SF combination with the fist 2 picks which would have address the need for a shooter and the need for a long wind defender and scorer.

For the life of me I do not understand why Ainge continues to add below average shooters and then overreaches for guys like Guerschon Yabusele.

I said before that Jalen Brown = Jeff Green

Using our best opportunity in a long time to draft a non-shooter when that is a primary need borders on negligence.

Very disappointed in Mr Ainge.  

This has to be the worse Celtics draft of all times.

dboss

Seems to me we are forgetting something......we were a damn good team before this draft even took place. We are also I believe the 5th youngest (prior to the draft too)

It's June 24th season doesn't start 4+ months, lots of time to make moves and even if the "big one" doesn't take place we have a solid team that IMHO can only get better after playing together for now more than a year. I know it's all about 18 always has been, and the regular season is not the playoffs, (ask the Warriors) but during that season we beat the Champs and took the regular season champs to the limit and lost in 2 OT's and beat them on their court late in the season.

And if we should haul in a free agent................

but if we don't so be it. As a long time Celtic fan that watched us suck the year after Russell left.........then had to deal with the BS of the late 70's with crappy ownership and again the demise of the Bird years when Bias dies..........watching Reggie Lewis go down then the 90's and early 2000's rather poor teams.

We are not in poor shape at all. We still have some top picks the next couple years and perhaps one of them will indeed turn to gold.

Sometimes no move is the best move.

beat

Ainge has the chips to do a short turn rebuild or a long term rebuild. If moves can be made that will author a short term rebuilt then I would expect Danny to go that route - if not then I see no reason to believe that Danny will not have the patience to make the big moves in the future. Over the next 2 years Ainge figures to have at 2 very high 1st round picks, compliments of the woeful Nets. On a day to day basis I believe that Danny will be playing it by ear letting the opportunities of the day to dictate his course of action.

swish

I think that NYCelt makes a good point: did owning too many draft picks make DA's bargaining power weaker? The other teams knew that no way, no how could Ainge actually have a roster with eight(?!) first year players so they could try and fleece Danny knowing that so many picks rendered them less valuable to Ainge.

My 2 cents:

So many high rated players over the years have been a bust in the NBA, and other sports. Some due to injuries, some just don't have the mental toughness to play at the pro level, etc.

No matter how good the scouts are, they are often wrong. Its hard to imagine that with all the knowledge, expertise, film, etc. that people who make their living doing this, can fail so often. They remind me of people who predict the weather sometimes, computer models included!

Then there are the "sleepers" that fall under the radar, and become fantastic players.

I am happy to wait and see what happens here, and Tom Brady comes to mind, who would have thought that a 6th round NFL pick, would have turned out to be the super star that he is!

Pete

Beat

you are right in that we still will see more activity before the season stars.  Nevertheless I am skeptical about players that cannot shoot well but are somehow going to become good shooters.  How many times have we seen that one play out?

The 2nd pick from France is a very talented player.  I watched film on him a while back.  I do not have a problem with Danny drafting him but I think he could have been there at 23 or if he was looking for an athletic PF he could have drafted Brice Johnson.

This whole thing turned when DA decided to draft Brown.  Celtic fans are going to be horrified when they see how much game he does not have.  

The Celtics did not address one single immediate need.  When you have 8 picks you have to come away with one can't miss player instead of a bunch of prospects.

The Celtics should have added a deep threat and /or scorer and they did not do that.  Granted free agency and trades are there to be made but you have to do better than what this draft has produced.

dboss

dboss wrote:This draft was a shocker.

I was thinking that there is no way DA can screw this one up.

I was wrong.

I have stated before that DA had the hots for getting a SF.  After the rebuke last year he was all the more determined to make that happen.

I thought he had an opportunity to do that at 16.  

As You know I had Heild/Murray at # 3 and then Valentine/Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot @ 16.   DA had a great opportunity to draft a SG guard and SF combination with the fist 2 picks which would have address the need for a shooter and the need for a long wind defender and scorer.

For the life of me I do not understand why Ainge continues to add below average shooters and then overreaches for guys like Guerschon Yabusele.

I said before that Jalen Brown = Jeff Green

Using our best opportunity in a long time to draft a non-shooter when that is a primary need borders on negligence.

Very disappointed in Mr Ainge.  

This has to be the worse Celtics draft of all times.

dboss

"This has to be the worse Celtics draft of all times."

and this from arambone: "This might be a top 5 Celtics draft of all time"

Guess we'll see in 2-3 years who has bragging rights to those statements...

I will add that Demetrius Jackson very well may turn out to be the steal of the draft.  That is another plus.  Could be our PG of the not all that distant future.

Still, we got a very good but redundant player at #3, a possible future rotation player at #45, and a whole lotta ? everywhere else. We could have likely still had the French guy with a later pick. Strategy, you know?

The large number of picks is what I had originally wrote about here, and the theory that it was going to be a good thing.  In essence, and from a bargaining standpoint it provided no help and may have actually hurt.

I like the long approach to the rebuild.  I don't want to see '07 again from a short duration standpoint.  Even being a patient person, willing to wait, I want to see signs of undeniable progress.  Green glasses, green Kool-Aid, green blood and all, I have questions about the direction our front office has taken on this draft.  Doesn't make me less green, I just drive with my eyes open.

Here's 3 players that were anything but sharp shooters their rookie season. Wall picked #1, Billups #3, and Westbrook #4. I'll go with the Celtic draft team over the "boards draft team" We should have an answer in 3 or 4 years. Below link has the above 3 players in their rookie year.


http://bkref.com/tiny/87ZyM


swish

NYCelt wrote:I will add that Demetrius Jackson very well may turn out to be the steal of the draft.  That is another plus.  Could be our PG of the not all that distant future.

Still, we got a very good but redundant player at #3, a possible future rotation player at #45, and a whole lotta ? everywhere else.  We could have likely still had the French guy with a later pick.  Strategy, you know?

The large number of picks is what I had originally wrote about here, and the theory that it was going to be a good thing.  In essence, and from a bargaining standpoint it provided no help and may have actually hurt.

I like the long approach to the rebuild.  I don't want to see '07 again from a short duration standpoint.  Even being a patient person, willing to wait, I want to see signs of undeniable progress.  Green glasses, green Kool-Aid, green blood and all, I have questions about the direction our front office has taken on this draft.  Doesn't make me less green, I just drive with my eyes open.

I don't understand redundant, this kid is supposed to have lights out athleticism, something both Crowder and Turner do not have.

Redundant of Marcus Smart. Same basic skill set, strengths and weaknesses.

Different positions, but agreed are similarities, if hes a 6'7" version of Smart....me likey

I think Smart is about to have a break out year

Smart shot much better from 3 point line in the playoffs.
2016 -Regular season - 3 points - .253% 2 points - .427% FT .777%
Playoffs - 3 points - .344% 2 points - .393% FT .810%

2015 - Regular season - 3 points - .335% 2 points - .410 FT .646%

Overall he has been improving as a shooter.

Meanwhile here's another take on the draft, particularly our second round picks, both promising:

http://hardwoodhoudini.com/2016/06/24/celtics-come-up-big-in-second-round/

NYCelt wrote:Redundant of Marcus Smart.  Same basic skill set, strengths and weaknesses.

Brown is 3.5" taller, and way quicker, faster, and more explosive vertically, with much better shake to his game.


I think you're just pouting because you didn't get your favorite picked. Like 70% of Celtics fans apparently.

swish wrote:Here's 3 players that were anything but sharp shooters their rookie season.  Wall picked #1, Billups #3, and Westbrook #4.  I'll go with the Celtic draft team over the "boards draft team"  We should have an answer in 3 or 4 years. Below link has the above 3 players in their rookie year.


 http://bkref.com/tiny/87ZyM


  swish

I really think Brown is a 6'7" Westbrook. And all this talk about Brown being years away from helping the Celtics is absurd.

Some people would trade all the picks, and all the future picks, just to get their emotional favorite.

2008 Draft Profile - Russell Westbrook

Strengths: Defense, athleticism, finishing in transition, getting to the rim.

Weaknesses: Jumpshot range, passing, decision-making.

Analysis: Westbrook is another promising 6'3" to 6'4" tweener with a lot of upside. Since Dwyane Wade proved that 1-2 tweeners could succeed in today's NBA, these players have gotten a lot of attention from NBA scouts. In the 2008 draft alone, Mayo, Jarryd Bayless, Derrick Rose and Eric Gordon join Westbrook in this mold, and are all expected to go in the lottery. Best case scenario, Westbrook compares well to Dwayne Wade or Monta Ellis. Worst case, he is a Fred Jones or Keyon Dooling, but will likely be somewhere in between those extremes, like a Rashad McCants or Randy Foye. Because of his defensive ability, he is unlikely to be "bust," although he probably won't develop into a bona fide superstar. Consider him "safe with upside." He could use one more year at UCLA to improve on his decision-making, but with several highlight reel dunks and NCAA tourney exposure, one could hardly blame him if he chose to enter the draft after this season.
Draft Profile provided by: Nick Mitchell

http://www.mynbadraft.com/NBA-Draft-Profiles-2008/Russell-Westbrook

we should be so lucky!!!

cowens/oldschool wrote:we should be so lucky!!!

We already are.

snippet from that Westbrook scouting report:

"... he probably won't develop into a bona fide superstar. Consider him "safe with upside.""

My only question with Brown is long-term love of the game, and how well he gets along with teammates. Hopefully he's not a Tiki Barber type insufferable snob around his teammates.

Smart would have been closer to Jaylen Brown level (though not quite) if his body stopped filling out at 225, which is what Brown weighs. Smart kept filling out to probably 235 now, which at 6'3.5" tall in shoes is a whole lot of weight, even if it's mostly muscle. All that muscle in his upper body doesn't make him jump higher or give him a quicker first step. It just slows him down because weight is weight.

No way Smart is 235, thats too much weight for him to carry.