ESPN summer forecast projects Boston Celtics to finish with 51 wins in a second-place tie in Eastern Conference

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2016/07/espn_summer_forecast_projects.html



ESPN summer forecast projects Boston Celtics to finish with 51 wins in a second-place tie in Eastern Conference


How Many Games Will The Celtics Win?



Jay King | mjking@masslive.com By Jay King | mjking@masslive.com



on July 26, 2016 at 12:07 PM



It's July. The NBA regular season won't begin for another three months. Because some rosters aren't fully formed, right now is way too early to offer up reasonable preseason predictions.

No matter. ESPN's summer forecast has already unleashed win projections for each team. If anything more pressing were happening (like a super-important Larry Sanders Twitter poll), I would write about that instead. But this is the middle of summer. NBA news is slower than Jared Sullinger would be with Guerschon Yabusele strapped to his back. These are desperate times, so let's talk about ESPN's panel predicting the Boston Celtics to finish tied with the Toronto Raptors for second place in the Eastern Conference.

From ESPN:

T-2. Boston Celtics Proj. record: 51-31 Last season: 48-34
Our panel sees the Celtics improving their record for the third straight season and breaking the 50-win barrier. Does it shortchange Boston to suggest Al Horford and No. 3 pick Jaylen Brown are worth only three wins? Perhaps. But though accomplished, Horford has been a part of only two 50-win teams in his nine-year NBA career.


First: It's completely irrelevant Horford has only played for two 50-win teams. Kevin Garnett had only made it out of the first round once before joining the Celtics in 2007; though it's not a perfect comparison at all, we know how that went. Horford has been a damn good player for a long time. He's not Garnett or particularly close to Garnett, but will help the Celtics on both ends of the court.

Barring any big changes the rest of the summer, I'm going to predict 54 wins for the Celtics. They will miss everything Evan Turner contributed, but Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier should be ready for more responsibilities, Brown will play some type of role, and Horford will upgrade everything (with the notable exception of rebounding) in the frontcourt. According to Basketball-Reference.com, the Celtics actually underperformed last season based on their point differential. They had the statistical profile of a 50-win team, and Horford should push them another notch or two forward.

It's also important to remember Brad Stevens spent half of last season fumbling with his rotation, playing too many big lineups (hello, David Lee) that didn't work out well. It wasn't really the coach's fault; Boston just had a lot of established big men and Stevens tried for a while to make traditional lineups work. After a Jan. 10 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, the Celtics stood at 19-18. They lost two nights later to fall to .500, but Stevens decided to use more frontcourt skill the rest of the season. After that decision, Boston finished with a 29-15 push.

Why is that important? After letting Jared Sullinger go, the Celtics are set up to play with more skilled lineups all season. Horford and Amir Johnson can split rim-protecting duties as Kelly Olynyk, Jonas Jerebko and Jae Crowder rotate at the power forward spot. The increased shooting should lift the offense, and the Horford addition might be enough to improve a top-5 defense. Sprinkle in some internal improvement from a young roster and the Celtics should compete with the Toronto Raptors for the Eastern Conference's second seed.

One reason the Celtics might not reach my lofty prediction: health. Isaiah Thomas played all 82 games last season for the first time. Avery Bradley played 76, one off his career high. Jae Crowder sprained his ankle at a bad time, late in the season, but the starting lineup only missed 19 combined games due to injuries. Though key reserves Kelly Olynyk and Marcus Smart both missed a chunk of time, Boston was relatively healthy throughout last season. If that luck changes, a win total in the mid-50s might be overly optimistic.



bob


.

IMO it is way too early for win predictions.  Perhaps we should wait until the end of training camp.

But ESPN has to write about something, so carry on you wayward network.  

Ha, this same article was posted in a thread yesterday and I even commented that it was irrelevant that Horford's teams only won 50 games twice in his 9 year career because Pierce's teams NEVER won 50 games before KG and Allen got here (best was 49 in 2001-02). 

KG is also a good example, although his teams won 50 games four times in his first 12 seasons in Minnesota.

Horford was also on a 60 win team and has made it past the 1st rd of the playoffs 5 times along with taking the eventual champion Celts to 7 games in rd 1. Hard to get past the semi's when his Hawks were good during the KG, Pierce and Allen era of 2008-12 and the LeBron era where his teams were top 3 in the east in both Cleveland stops and Miami during Al's entire 9 year career.