Al Horford will bring the Boston Celtics to the next level

http://www.celticsblog.com/2016/9/8/12799918/nba-boston-celtics-al-horford-next-level

Boston’s prized free-agent signing provides the Celtics with the front court upgrade they need to succeed.

By • Sean Penney • @spenney83 •Sep 8, 2016, 9:00a

The Boston Celtics are coming off of a fine season in which they finished with 48 wins, tied for the third most in the Eastern Conference. That squad was a solid team that exceeded most of our expectations. Now the addition of prized free agent Al Horford has the potential to make this year’s edition a great team.

Signing the four-time All-Star was a significant move for the franchise on a number of levels. First, the signing dispels the myth that star players won’t consider Boston as a viable free-agent signing. Additionally, on the court, Horford’s versatility will allow him to fit in seamlessly at either frontcourt position to allow Brad Stevens to tinker with various lineups around him.

The keys to the offense still belong to Isaiah Thomas, but having another star beside him helps ease the burden. The Celtics offense stalled during their first-round exit to the Atlanta Hawks when a swarming defense attacked Thomas. Opposing teams will find that more difficult to do when they have to worry about the presence of Horford on the floor. Not only can Horford carry some of the scoring load but also he’ll open up more breathing room for Thomas to operate.

Thomas excels in the pick and roll, making Horford an ideal fit to pair with the Celtics point guard. The 340 points that Horford scored as a roll man ranked third in the league last season, and he finished with an efficient 57.1 eFG% in those situations, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com.

When he isn’t rolling to the rim, Horford thrives in the pick-and-pop game as well. Last season saw Horford expand his range beyond the arc, where he managed to knock down shots at about a league-average rate of 34.4 percent. He had shown occasional glimpses of this range in the past, yet he rarely relied on an outside shot until last year when his attempts from three-point range exploded to 3.1 per game.

Horford’s ability to knock down shots at the top of the arc show he has developed into the type of offensive player that Boston always hoped Jared Sullinger would become. The Celtics spent years allowing Sully to hoist up threes in a failed attempt to turn him into the stretch four they were seeking, but he never managed to convert more than 28.3 percent in a season. Horford essentially replaces Sullinger on the roster, providing the Celtics with an instant upgrade on the offensive end.

The boost Horford provides on the defensive end is even more significant. While Sully couldn’t manage to stay on the court against Atlanta’s imposing frontcourt in the playoffs, Horford’s versatility allows him to match up against any opponent. He has the strength to defend the paint, even if he doesn’t fit the mold of the prototypical shot blocker. Horford doesn’t leave his feet much to challenge shots, but he’s an expert at timing the opponent’s release to swat it away. Staying grounded also prevents him from committing unnecessary fouls. He has impressive mobility for a man his size, allowing him to defend the perimeter to defend other bigs that present a shooting threat.

Horford’s 19.46 PER ranked 11th among centers that averaged at least 24 minutes per game last season. By comparison, Sullinger was 21st at the position with a 16.78 PER. Horford was 9th among centers with 11.6 Estimated Wins Added, while Sully was worth about half that at 5.9 EWA to rank 22nd. Also consider that Horford spent much of the last few seasons playing out of his preferred power forward position after Atlanta paired him with fellow All-Star Paul Millsap. The move to Boston, where Stevens can put him next to another big that can handle the center spot, should enable Horford to thrive on both ends.

It’s not hard to envision the addition of Horford alone meriting at least an extra handful of wins, which would have Boston competing for one of the top spots in the East.

Boston went from a team that finished strong to make a surprise postseason appearance ahead of schedule two years ago to a team carrying expectations that couldn’t quite get out of the first round last season. Now with Horford on board they have enough to take the next step by winning a playoff series for the first time in the Stevens era.

This is a team trending in the right direction, so don’t be surprised if Horford helps them take two steps forward to land in the Eastern Conference Finals.

This article also does an excellent job of pointing out why IT needs to be in the starting lineup, rather than first guard off the bench as some sportswriters have opined.