Random Thoughts on the Luck of the Irish

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2016/09/random-thoughts-on-luck-of-irish.html

Posted Yesterday by FLCeltsFan

I've been thinking about the role that luck plays in building a contender. We can all agree that Red Auerbach was one of the best coaches and general managers in league history. He certainly didn't lack the skill and knowledge it takes to make it to the top of his profession. But, as I read the many books on Celtics' history, I am reminded that he also had a measure of luck on his side.

Going back to the first contender that he built, luck overruled his decision making in a huge way. Bob Cousy was one of the best point guards every to grace the court. Granted, the Celtics didn't win their first title until Red got Russell to pair with Cousy, but we have to admit that the "Houdini of the Hardwood" was a huge part of those early championships.

Bob Cousy revolutionized the game of basketball with his passing skills. Cousy seemingly had eyes in the back of his head, and he was the first player to regularly use the behind-the-back dribble as a weapon. He mastered no-look passes and he ran the fast break like a magician, thus earning him his famous nickname. After earning All-American honors at Holy Cross, Cousy became one of the best in the NBA, leading the league in assists for eight consecutive seasons and was a huge part of the Celtics' first six championships.

But, Red Auerbach couldn't see all of that on draft day in 1950. The Celtics had the first pick in the 1950 NBA draft, and Auerbach selected a 6-11 center named Chuck Share out of Bowling Green. Cousy was a local hero and the Boston media was very critical of Red for his failure to draft him. Auerbach famously responded with this, "We need a big man. Little men are a dime a dozen. I'm supposed to win, not go after local yokels." That statement would become legendary as Red called the future Hall of Famer, who would later become a dear friend, a local yokel.

Cousy was picked fourth in the first round, by The Tri Cities Blackhawks but was soon traded to the Chicago Stags. Before the season began, the Stags franchise folded and their best players were distributed throughout the league. The names of the final 3 Chicago players Max Zaslofsky, Andy Phillip, and Bob Cousy were put into a hat from which the Celtics, Knicks and Nationals, the final 3 teams in the bidding, were to pick. Red wanted Zaslofsky first, Phillip second, and he still didn't want Cousy. Walter Brown was to pick first, but being the gentleman that he was, Brown deferred to the other two owners. After the Ned Irish of the Knicks drew Zaslofsky, Gotlieb of Philadelphia drew Andy Phillip, and the Celtics were "stuck" with Cousy. The local yokel belonged to Boston and like it or not, Red was about to be the coach of the only person, other than Red's wife, to call him Arnold.

The rest of the story is history. Red made Cousy audition and "make" the team. The Celtics went on to become the greatest dynasty in sports history. Cousy had a very successful career with the Celtics, playing on six championship teams, being voted into 13 NBA All-Star Games and 12 All-NBA First and Second Teams and winning the NBA Most Valuable Player Award in 1957. In his first 11 seasons in the NBA, Cousy led the league in assists eight straight times and revolutionized the way the game was played with a new blend of ball-handling and passing skills. But, it all started with the luck of the draw.

Acquiring Cousy wouldn't be the only time that luck played a big part in the building of a Celtics champion. There would be many other small incidences of luck that would surface, as there are for every franchise, such as avoiding injuries, having a desired player drop to them in the draft, a coin flip going their way, or a lucky bounce here and there to help them win a game. But there is another instance where luck played a huge part in the building of another champion.

Fast forward to 1980. The Celtics once again had the #1 pick in the draft by virtue of a lucky coin toss with Utah -Utah called heads, the coin came up tails and Red had another #1 pick. We all know that Red craftily turned this pick into Robert Parish and Kevin McHale, two thirds of the greatest front line in NBA history. But, there is more to the story. Red desperately wanted Ralph Sampson in that draft. The 7'4" Sampson had just finished his freshman year at Virginia. He was projected to be the next big thing, Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain combined. Red loved size and Sampson had more of it than anyone else. Red went to visit Sampson at his home to try to talk him into entering the draft that year, as he knew it would be his only chance to land the coveted big man. Sampson couldn't be convinced and ended up staying in school for the full 4 years. The Celtics dodged a bullet because Sampson never became the dominant player that he was projected to be.

The Celtics were forced to go to plan B. With Sampson out of the picture, there's that luck again, the top three players in the draft were Joe Barry Carroll, Darrell Griffith and Kevin McHale. Red had the three ranked in that order. The Celtics coach, Bill Fitch, had his eye on an underachieving center on the Golden State Warriors for several seasons. He felt that he could bring out the best in Parish and convinced Red to inquire about him. Just hours before the draft, the deal was struck sending Robert Parish to Boston along with the #3 pick in exchange for the first pick in the draft.

The Warriors, as expected, chose Joe Barry Carroll. The Jazz had the second pick that they used to select Louisville's Darrell Griffith. And once again, luck smiled on the Celtics as they chose Kevin McHale out of the University of Minnesota. Had it not been for a bit of luck again, the Celtics would have had Ralph Sampson and Banners 14, 15 and 16 probably wouldn't be hanging in the rafters, in spite of the presence of one Larry Joe Bird.

The Celtics got lucky when Paul Pierce dropped to them in 1998. I feel that they got lucky again when Seattle took Robert Swift with the 12th pick. It was widely reported that Danny had his eye on Swift. He was even reported as having attempted to trade for Swift after the picks had been made. Al Jefferson has become a low post scorer and was the centerpiece of the trade that brought Kevin Garnett to Boston. Robert Swift sadly never panned out and he has sunk to lows that one would never imagine.

Of course, luck wasn't always good for the Celtics. Back in 1986, they considered themselves to be very lucky, having just won a championship and having the 2nd pick in the draft. We all know that the Celtics picked Len Bias, who could have had a career rivaling that of Michael Jordan. But he died just 48 hours after he was picked after celebrating with cocaine that brought on a heart attack.

The bad luck (actually, more tragedy than luck) continued in 1993 when the Celtics captain, Reggie Lewis collapsed on the court during a playoff game. After much back and forth on his heart condition by doctors with one saying he could play and another saying he should retire, he went back to playing basketball. He died on the court while practicing. The NBA commissioner, David Stern, refused to give the Celtics any cap relief, which tied the Celtics' hands for years after.

Of course, there is skill and work that goes into building a contender also. Danny made the tough decision to trade Pierce and Garnett for 4 players and a handful of picks. The Nets were thrilled and expected to be a contender for years to come. But there's that luck again. The super team that the Nets built didn't mesh and they plummeted to the bottom, giving the Celtics a few very valuable lottery picks.

When Pierce and Garnett were traded, Doc decided that he no longer wanted to coach the Celtics and be involved in a lengthy rebuild. That I feel was luck on the side of the Celtics as well. Doc still had 2 years left on his contract and I just don't feel that he would have been a good coach for a rebuild. He's good at managing egos and coaching players who are already stars but not so much at teaching young players and building a team.

The Clippers wanted Doc and luckily (there it is again) Doc wanted out of the Celtics. Danny surprised everyone and signed a young coach out of the college ranks named Brad Stevens. Stevens has proved to be the perfect coach for the rebuild and has brought the best out of each of the young players that Danny has signed.

Danny has added some pieces in trades that have proved to be much better than they showed on their previous teams. Isaiah Thomas was the third guard on the Suns and although he was good, he wasn't All Star good. But once he came to the Celtics under Brad Stevens' steady hand, he made his first All Star team. Evan Turner was considered to be a bust but became a very valuable player on the Celtics under Stevens.

Jae Crowder was an afterthought in Dallas and was considered to be a throw-in when Danny traded Rondo to the Mavericks. Rondo fizzled in Dallas but Jae flourished in Boston to the point that Phil Jackson considers his biggest mistake being not trying to get Jae in the Tyson Chandler trade. After being a 14th or 15th man for years in Dallas, Jae is now listed as the 53rd best player in the league and climbing.


Danny proved that he is a good GM when he built the contender that won the title in 2008, after 22 years of futility. He has made some very good moves to fast track the Celtics rebuild, whether by luck or by skill. But as the Celtics move toward Banner 18, let's hope that Danny isn't just good, but lucky as well.

Red went to visit Sampson at his home to try to talk him into entering the draft that year, as he knew it would be his only chance to land the coveted big man. Sampson couldn't be convinced and ended up staying in school for the full 4 years.

Is that even legal anymore? Was it legal then? Filling up a roster has certainly changed from back in the days when Red ruled the roost.

gyso

The Celtics also were able to draft JoJo White as he dropped in the draft also. He was an Olympic star and I was overjoyed the night they were able to get him. Of course, the luck of the territorial draft and Red was able to draft Tom Heinsohn, one of the most underrated players of his era.

Over the years Red signed many players in their last years as pros who contributed greatly to the teams success. Big Wayne Embry, Tiny Archibald, Paul Silas, the list goes on and on. It was a fun time to be a Celtics fan because you never knew who would suddenly appear on the team and help. How about Bailey Howell, Don Nelson. God, I could go on and on.

It has always been fun to be a Celtics fan, granted I will admit there were some real duds, but I don't want to think of them, it is more fun to remember the good ones

Danny has proven to me that he can make good trades but is rather mediocre at drafting talent. A lot of people are quick to tout his skills as a GM; I'm not one of those people.


KJ

Sampson played in all but 3 possible games his first 3 seasons and averaged 20.7 pts. 10.8 rebs, 2.8 assists, 2 blocks and 1.1 steals per game those seasons with PER's in the 17-20 range. 

The C's won 2 titles in this span. 

I think it is obvious to say the C's would not have been better with a 2-1 swap of Sampson for McHale/Parish, but I think he'd have done well for a good 6 seasons (1981-1986) before the injuries set in by 1987 (the same year McHale broke his foot, fwiw). Cowens is likely coaxed into playing at least 2 more years to help the kid adjust. Cowens and Sampson over McHale and Parish in '81 and '82 is likely closer to a wash. Cowens was only 31 when he retired and off a season where he put up 14p/8r in 32 mins. If he put up 11/7 in 24 mins in 1981 (Parish was 19/9.5 in 28 mins) I think it is safe to say Sampson, who was about to score 17.7 pts with 11.5 rebs and 3 blocks in a VERY good ACC conference at age 20, would better the 10p/4.4r/1.8b McHale put up in 20 mins by 3-4 points, 3-4 boards and a block in the 24 or so mins he would be expected to play and make it basically a wash in that frontcourt for 1-2 years.  

You never know who they could have added by 1983 or so to make the team as good as it was from '85-'87. But you'd have to admit Sampson was slightly better than Parish and only slightly worse than McHale those years.