Random Thoughts on Danny and the Rebuilds

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2016/09/random-thoughts-on-danny-and-rebuilds.html



Danny Ainge took his share of abuse for the Celtics fortunes over his first 3 years on the job. When he became the Celtics GM he said that he had a 5 year plan to rebuild the Celtics and get them back to contention. His plan was to gather "chips" and then trade them for established stars. Many fans were disillusioned with the "youth movement" and felt that the Celtics were years away from contending, if ever. But what most of us forgot was Danny's initial vision of gathering trading chips. Some of his moves were lateral but others were trading one chip for another just slightly more valuable financially or on the court or that would give us a draft pick he could parlay into a player or use as a chip.

In 2007, in Danny's 5th season as GM, his plan came to fruition and he cashed in those chips for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Those two players formed a Big 3 along with Paul Pierce and the rest, as they say, is history. Often, when a team has 3 stars, they struggle with a weak bench but Danny was able to bring in just the right players to fill out the roster and the Celtics hung their 17th banner.

The Celtics are back to rebuilding once again and Danny once again has been using the same formula that he did back when he first took over the team. Gathering chips and good young players. Some of those chips are the Nets' draft picks that have become very valuable. Last season, the pick that the Celtics got from the Nets was #3 and they have 2 more of those picks to look forward to as the nets once again look to be among the worst teams in the league.

As we approach the season, I have been seeing some very good things written about the Celtics top pick in the draft that came by way of the Nets. I know many wanted that pick traded for a star and Danny took some heat on draft night for picking Jaylen Brown with the third pick. He was definitely the most athletic player in the draft but his shot was suspect. Reports are that he has worked hard on his shot and that he may be a much better scorer than he showed in college.

This season we saw one of Danny's first round picks leave the Celtics for the Raptors. Jared Sullinger showed a great deal of promise coming into the draft only to drop to the 21st pick due to a medical red flag on his back. He still shows a great deal of promise, but hasn't been able to stay in playing shape year in and year out. If he can conquer those demons, he will be a great player but Danny tired of waiting for it to happen.

Other players that Danny drafted are showing varied levels of promise. Terry Rozier, whose selection last year was actually booed looked like a candidate for most improved player in Summer League. Similarly, Kelly Olynyk and Marcus Smart may both be in for a leap this season. Thinking about these players got me thinking of all the players that Danny has drafted over the years and those he passed up to draft those players.

2008 – J.R. Giddens
After Giddens teams took these players, among others. This was a big miss.
Nikola Pekovic
Deandre Jordan
Omer Asik

2009 – The Celtics did not have a pick.

2010 – Avery Bradley
This draft should be considered to be a success in that Bradley has developed very well and made First Team All Defense this year, which pretty much surpasses players chosen after him.

2011 – JaJuan Johnson
After Johnson, there were several much better players chosen. Missing out on Jimmy Butler was a big miss. Now, rumors have the Celtics giving up the farm to try to get him. Johnson, in the meantime has been out of the league for years already.
Jimmy Butler
Norris Cole
Cory Joseph
Bojan Bogdanovic
Chandler Parsons

2012 – Fab Melo
The Celtics missed out on some very good players who were picked after Melo. Plumlee may not be the best center in the league, but he's better than Melo, who is out of the league. Draymond Green and Khris Middleton are two big misses in this draft.
Tony Wroten
Miles Plumlee
Festus Ezeli
Draymond Green
Khris Middleton

2013 – Kelly Olynyk
Kelly is still improving. He had one of the best 3 point percentages among bigs last season and has some skills that could make him a very good player. However, the Greek Freak is a big miss as is Gobert and even Dieng is looking pretty good.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Dennis Schroeder
Gorgui Dieng
Mason Plumlee
Rudy Gobert

2014 - Marcus Smart
Smart is a very tough player with elite defensive skills. His offense hasn't caught up to his defense, but he has improved since the draft. He could become a very, very good player if his offense catches up to his defense. The mistake in this draft may be taking James Young with the 17th pick in front of players like CJ Wilcox and Jordan Clarkson.

2015 - Terry Rozier
After seeing Rozier in this year's Summer League, it appears that Danny may have another winner but only time will tell if that is true. Bobby Portis is looking good in Chicago but the jury is still out on this draft. There has been much buzz about Jordan Mickey, picked in the second round, but again, the jury is still out.

2016 - Jaylen Brown
We have to hope that Danny hit a home run with this one. He could be the superstar that everyone feels that the Celtics need. I can't help but wonder where the rebuild might be if Danny had picked a few of those players that he passed on such as Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, DeAndre Jordan or Jimmy Butler. But then again, drafting is an inexact science. Players who starred in college fizzle in the pros and some players who have become stars in the NBA weren't all that noticeable in college. That's where the luck that I discussed a few days ago comes in.

Danny came to the job as GM of the Celtics with a five year plan. He worked that plan to perfection and in his fifth season at the helm, the Celtics won the championship that he promised when he began the job. It has been 8 years since that magical championship season. If not for injuries (and a very stupid trade of Kendrick Perkins), the Celtics may have won a couple more titles in those years. One of the things that Danny did very right is to hire Brad Stevens as head coach. He is already one of the best coaches in the league and can only go up from there.

Much has happened since that title and Danny has been at work trying to keep the team competitive through those years while at the same time rebuilding. The Celtics are once again loaded for another run for the championship. Other GM's made flashy moves, bringing in big stars, but Danny worked to keep chemistry intact and to build a deep team, rather than one with a starry starting line and a weak bench. Hopefully his plan will work once again. 36 days until the season starts. I can't wait until I can start writing about Celtics basketball instead of ruminating on what went before!!!

Despite the fact that Danny Ainge takes a lot of heat for draft misses, like all GMs, it's hard to be overly critical.  Bradley, Smart and Rozier appear to be very good picks; Smart and Rozier are still developing with good upside.

Yes, the deal to trade Perk was a huge mistake.  But at the time we were heading for a playoff situation where it was all about small forwards, and getting Green to back Pierce while adding an offensive threat at center seemed like the way to go.

In my own opinion, the one giant draft bust Danny deserves flogging for was Fab Melo.  A center known for shot blocking who played a limited career, highlighted by college ball in a 2 - 3 zone?  I'll say it again..shot blocking...2 - 3 (you beat a zone shooting from outside; not much testing the center in the paint.  Many of his college "blocks" were long-balls headed for front-rim city.)  Not a really a center.  I think Yabusele and to a lesser extent Zizic are head scratchers, but it's way early there.  Young was premature, but others would have gotten fooled there too.

If the team continues to improve, and adds the shooter and complimentary rebounding center it needs, Danny's office rent is paid for a while.  His biggest enemy right now will be over-expectation this season.  The record may be similar to last year or could conceivably even slide slightly, but we look like we're on the right track with a good young core of IT, Smart, Rozier, Bradley, and maybe Crowder.  Horford has a few miles on him, but his game is solid and he's reportedly in good enough shape to last a few seasons more.  Brown looks like a very good addition, too.

You have to include an intelligent choice to go outside the usual coaching carousel and add a respected young coach to the mix in any evaluation of Ainge, and that's another plus.

Oooh, look! Matty's famous!


bob


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bobheckler wrote:Oooh, look!  Matty's famous!


bob.

My first thought when I saw that picture was, "That's our Matty!" But who is that guy next to him?

gyso

Aww shux guys

The othere guy would have been our dear old freind from BDC "oldstool" or whatever his name was.

This was a case where I am quite happy to admit I was wrong. Very wrong.