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Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar
by bobheckler Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:19 pm
https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2017/07/13/marcus-smart-celtics-next-superstar/
Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar
by Adam Miller
2 hours ago
It hurts to lose Avery Bradley. I mean, it hurts a lot.
Bradley gave the Celtics toughness, scoring and of course, defense. This seems like it would be a sizable gap for Boston to fill, but it may not be that way. Actually, I think it’s possible that the Celtics actually upgrade that position.
Marcus Smart is the man who’s ready to take the reins. Even more than that, I believe he’s going to be the missing piece to the Celtics future “Big 3.” After the days of Gordon Hayward, Al Horford and Isaiah Thomas are long and over with, I picture a C’s team lead by Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart. As a matter of fact, it’s very possible that Smart actually breaks out sooner rather than later and there’s evidence to support it.
First let’s look into the FiveThirtyEight database. The website uses a uses a formula known as the CARMELO (Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization) system in order to project the future of NBA players. FiveThirtyEight specifically defines it as the following:
The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player.
So basically, it’s how much a player contributes to his team’s success on both sides of the court compared to an average player. Based on the website’s analysis, Smart projects to be a future All Star. They calculate that over the next 7 years he will post an average +/- of +1.4. On top of that, the FiveThirtyEight estimates he will average roughly 4 wins above replacement.
As of now, the Celtics could lock up Smart long term on a deal similar to Avery Bradley’s. According to FiveThirtyEight, this would be a HUGE bargain. They evaluate his worth over five years to be at $128.8 million. Yeah, I said that right. $128.8 million.
If this all bodes to be true, the Celtics may have a bargain superstar in their mitts. The other bit of evidence regarding Smart’s future lies with a player Boston once coveted. That player is Jimmy Butler.
In his first season, Butler barely played. The Bulls decided to use him in sparing time and allow him to grow as a player. Smart on the other hand was forced into a contributing role with no real leadership position. Both players made their reputations off of their defensive play. Smart was an immediate plug and play defender tasked with the opposing teams best ball handler when Bradley was out. Butler on the other hand had his defensive ability on full display when he played LeBron James’ Miami Heat. In that series, Butler was a pest to LeBron and continued upon that into next year’s series.
Their first season’s saw Smart average 7.8 points per game, 3.1 assists per game, and 3.3 rebounds per game to Butler’s 2.6 points, 0.3 assists, and 1.3 rebounds. These seem different, but their per 36 minute stats are crazy similar that season.
PER 36 Minute Stats
Marcus Smart – 10.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 4.4 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 37 FG%
Jimmy Butler – 10.9 PPG, 1.4 APG, 5.6 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 40 FG%
Actually over the next 2 years, the two players continue to have almost identical 36 minute stats.
The most interesting part of this is when Butler made his jump into star status. This occurred in his fourth year when his scoring output went from 13.1 to 20, his shooting went from 39% to 46% and his 3 point shooting improved from 28% to 37%.
This is an obvious result of his increased playing time during that season. With the increased in minutes Smart will seemingly absorb one could see the overwhelming case that he too could break out.
As I said before, it really hurts to lose Bradley, but I truly believe Smart is a superstar in waiting. Stevens just needs to give him a chance.
bob
MY NOTE: I'd rather have a player whose shooting improves in the playoffs, like Smart's does, than a player who disappears in the playoffs but it is still about shooting. If Smart can up his shooting percentages then he could be a helluva player instead of just an off-the-bench defensive role player.
And the comparison to Jimmy Butler is nonsense. Butler's a natural scorer, Smart is not.
.
Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar
by Adam Miller
2 hours ago
It hurts to lose Avery Bradley. I mean, it hurts a lot.
Bradley gave the Celtics toughness, scoring and of course, defense. This seems like it would be a sizable gap for Boston to fill, but it may not be that way. Actually, I think it’s possible that the Celtics actually upgrade that position.
Marcus Smart is the man who’s ready to take the reins. Even more than that, I believe he’s going to be the missing piece to the Celtics future “Big 3.” After the days of Gordon Hayward, Al Horford and Isaiah Thomas are long and over with, I picture a C’s team lead by Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart. As a matter of fact, it’s very possible that Smart actually breaks out sooner rather than later and there’s evidence to support it.
First let’s look into the FiveThirtyEight database. The website uses a uses a formula known as the CARMELO (Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization) system in order to project the future of NBA players. FiveThirtyEight specifically defines it as the following:
The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player.
So basically, it’s how much a player contributes to his team’s success on both sides of the court compared to an average player. Based on the website’s analysis, Smart projects to be a future All Star. They calculate that over the next 7 years he will post an average +/- of +1.4. On top of that, the FiveThirtyEight estimates he will average roughly 4 wins above replacement.
As of now, the Celtics could lock up Smart long term on a deal similar to Avery Bradley’s. According to FiveThirtyEight, this would be a HUGE bargain. They evaluate his worth over five years to be at $128.8 million. Yeah, I said that right. $128.8 million.
If this all bodes to be true, the Celtics may have a bargain superstar in their mitts. The other bit of evidence regarding Smart’s future lies with a player Boston once coveted. That player is Jimmy Butler.
In his first season, Butler barely played. The Bulls decided to use him in sparing time and allow him to grow as a player. Smart on the other hand was forced into a contributing role with no real leadership position. Both players made their reputations off of their defensive play. Smart was an immediate plug and play defender tasked with the opposing teams best ball handler when Bradley was out. Butler on the other hand had his defensive ability on full display when he played LeBron James’ Miami Heat. In that series, Butler was a pest to LeBron and continued upon that into next year’s series.
Their first season’s saw Smart average 7.8 points per game, 3.1 assists per game, and 3.3 rebounds per game to Butler’s 2.6 points, 0.3 assists, and 1.3 rebounds. These seem different, but their per 36 minute stats are crazy similar that season.
PER 36 Minute Stats
Marcus Smart – 10.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 4.4 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 37 FG%
Jimmy Butler – 10.9 PPG, 1.4 APG, 5.6 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 40 FG%
Actually over the next 2 years, the two players continue to have almost identical 36 minute stats.
The most interesting part of this is when Butler made his jump into star status. This occurred in his fourth year when his scoring output went from 13.1 to 20, his shooting went from 39% to 46% and his 3 point shooting improved from 28% to 37%.
This is an obvious result of his increased playing time during that season. With the increased in minutes Smart will seemingly absorb one could see the overwhelming case that he too could break out.
As I said before, it really hurts to lose Bradley, but I truly believe Smart is a superstar in waiting. Stevens just needs to give him a chance.
bob
MY NOTE: I'd rather have a player whose shooting improves in the playoffs, like Smart's does, than a player who disappears in the playoffs but it is still about shooting. If Smart can up his shooting percentages then he could be a helluva player instead of just an off-the-bench defensive role player.
And the comparison to Jimmy Butler is nonsense. Butler's a natural scorer, Smart is not.
.
bobheckler- Posts : 61448
Join date : 2009-10-28
Re: Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar
by cowens/oldschool Thu Jul 13, 2017 3:22 pm
Bob the point of the article is Butler was not an effective scorer until his 4th year because he finally got the playing time. I have no idea if Smart will make that same jump even if he gets the additional playing time because his role is different, he plays point usually on offense and we have a lot of established and developing scorers in place while Butler was playing on a team with a constant injured Derek Rose that was desperate for more offense.
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27270
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar
by worcester Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:07 pm
Cow, My NBA playing time has been severely limited lately, through no fault of my own. I don't want to brag but back in the day, before I decided on a career other than being an NBA star, I did play on the same court that Cousy and Heinsohn frequented - the Newton Square Court in Worcester, MA. Cooz lived 1/4 mile away from my home and Tommy lived 1 mile away. I can only surmise that it was because of my budding rep that they consistently avoided ever playing against me. Cooz's Holy Cross back court mate, Andy Laska
(http://www.assumptiongreyhounds.com/sports/mbkb/2014-15/releases/20150128kkxy62)
had been my personal coach when I was 8 years old, and I'm sure word got back to Cooz through that channel. Anyways, given the logic expressed by Adam Miller, the fact that the Celtics already accept a 5'9" point guard on their roster, and the current salaries of NBA players, I am considering a return to the NBA. Right now, using Rick Barry's grandma method of delivery, my free throw % hovers around 25%, but that's with zero NBA playing time. Once my minutes go up, I should easily make a leap in efficacy. Again I don't want to brag, but I have never missed an NBA 3 point shot, unlike many of my would be NBA competitors. I don't know if I can improve on such perfection, but if Marcus' shot can improve with more playing time, who knows what I may be able to do?
(http://www.assumptiongreyhounds.com/sports/mbkb/2014-15/releases/20150128kkxy62)
had been my personal coach when I was 8 years old, and I'm sure word got back to Cooz through that channel. Anyways, given the logic expressed by Adam Miller, the fact that the Celtics already accept a 5'9" point guard on their roster, and the current salaries of NBA players, I am considering a return to the NBA. Right now, using Rick Barry's grandma method of delivery, my free throw % hovers around 25%, but that's with zero NBA playing time. Once my minutes go up, I should easily make a leap in efficacy. Again I don't want to brag, but I have never missed an NBA 3 point shot, unlike many of my would be NBA competitors. I don't know if I can improve on such perfection, but if Marcus' shot can improve with more playing time, who knows what I may be able to do?
worcester- Posts : 11526
Join date : 2009-10-31
Age : 77
Re: Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar
by dboss Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:41 pm
Smart is not going to be a good shooter.
He does several other things very well.
Does that put him in the superstar conversation? I do not believe so.
dboss
He does several other things very well.
Does that put him in the superstar conversation? I do not believe so.
dboss
dboss- Posts : 18771
Join date : 2009-11-01
Re: Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar
by cowens/oldschool Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:04 pm
worcester wrote:Cow, My NBA playing time has been severely limited lately, through no fault of my own. I don't want to brag but back in the day, before I decided on a career other than being an NBA star, I did play on the same court that Cousy and Heinsohn frequented - the Newton Square Court in Worcester, MA. Cooz lived 1/4 mile away from my home and Tommy lived 1 mile away. I can only surmise that it was because of my budding rep that they consistently avoided ever playing against me. Cooz's Holy Cross back court mate, Andy Laska
(http://www.assumptiongreyhounds.com/sports/mbkb/2014-15/releases/20150128kkxy62)
had been my personal coach when I was 8 years old, and I'm sure word got back to Cooz through that channel. Anyways, given the logic expressed by Adam Miller, the fact that the Celtics already accept a 5'9" point guard on their roster, and the current salaries of NBA players, I am considering a return to the NBA. Right now, using Rick Barry's grandma method of delivery, my free throw % hovers around 25%, but that's with zero NBA playing time. Once my minutes go up, I should easily make a leap in efficacy. Again I don't want to brag, but I have never missed an NBA 3 point shot, unlike many of my would be NBA competitors. I don't know if I can improve on such perfection, but if Marcus' shot can improve with more playing time, who knows what I may be able to do?
LMAO worse, I know you exceptional hands
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27270
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar
by Rmbone Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:01 am
I wouldn't pay Smart 25 million a year, even if he ends up being worth that. Point guard/guard is the easiest position to fill, whether by draft, trade, or free agency. And Danny is at his best in scouting and evaluating point guards, while Brad is great at developing them. See Jordan Crawford, Evan Turner, Terry Rozier, or IT4 turning into an "mvp candidate".
Rmbone- Posts : 415
Join date : 2017-05-04
Re: Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar
by Shamrock1000 Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:00 pm
Take it with a grain of salt. Fivethirtyeight has some smart guys, and I would bet they would caution readers that predicting a players future success is like picking stocks - current perfromance does not necessarily predict future results.
Shamrock1000- Posts : 2709
Join date : 2013-08-19
Re: Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar
by KyleCleric Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:40 pm
It'd be fantastic if he made that kind of jump
KyleCleric- Posts : 1037
Join date : 2012-05-10
Age : 37
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