NBA Scouts Dish on Boston Celtics Rookie Jayson Tatum

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2723568-nba-scouts-dish-on-boston-celtics-rookie-jayson-tatum



NBA Scouts Dish on Boston Celtics Rookie Jayson Tatum



JONATHAN WASSERMAN



JULY 27, 2017




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A key storyline to emerge from the Boston Celtics' trade of the NBA draft's No. 1 pick: President of basketball operations Danny Ainge's obvious confidence in Jayson Tatum, because it wasn't shared by every scout around the league.

Nobody from the class had been under scouts' watch longer than Tatum, who was first selected to USA basketball back in 2013.

He's had their attention since he was 14, standing out with distinguishable NBA tools and skills through three gold medals, every All-American showcase event and one season at Duke.

But questions about his style of play have left some scouts hesitant about projecting regular All-Star appearances.

The concerns clearly didn't faze Ainge. For the Celtics, Tatum's 29 college games merely confirmed their previously-established belief.

Bleacher Report reached out to scouts to see how they view Tatum after Boston's move to get him, which meant passing on the chance to add Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball.


The Draw to Tatum

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Playing most of his freshman season at 18 years old (turned 19 March 3), Tatum averaged 16.8 points and looked notably sharper fundamentally than Josh Jackson and Jonathan Isaac—the draft's other highest-profile forwards.

Scout No. 1: "Very versatile and skilled. Played some point guard in high school. He'll be great in the new NBA that rewards guys who can shoot, pass and dribble."

Scout No. 2: "As one of the youngest players in the draft, Tatum has huge upside. His improvement from the beginning of his freshman year to the postseason was probably better than any other player in the draft. I expect that steep learning curve to continue as he and his game matures. Great kid, great work ethic, great talent. It's only a matter of time."

Scout No. 3: "Tatum is the most polished player in the draft. His footwork is beyond advanced for his age. Always loved taking and making difficult shots dating back to high school. And that's what he did at Duke and summer league."

Difficult shot-making was frequently mentioned, particularly after what scouts saw in summer league, where Tatum averaged 18.2 points. He put on a scoring clinic that highlighted both advanced shot-creation and the ability to knock down contested pull-ups, step-backs and fallaways out of the post.

Scout No. 4: "Someone with his ability to hit really, really tough shots is tremendously valuable at the end of a game when getting off a good shot isn't that easy. I think he might be one of those players whose shot-making ability is extremely valuable in that scenario."


Questions About Shot Selection, Style of Play

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Despite Tatum's NBA tools, unique polish and production, some scouts still have their reservations about his playing style.

He's a one-on-one stud—occasionally to a fault. Though praised for his ability to create and score against set half-court defenses, he's knocked for relying on low-percentage looks and a tendency to halt ball movement.

Scout No. 5: "His shot selection and inability to find the open man in certain situations were concerns for me. That said, I still had him very high, I just wasn't quite as high on him as most."

Scout No. 6: "He's definitely not a shoot-it-or-move-it guy, so that will impact his ability to be a winner when he becomes a focal point of an offense. But he'll score points and make a lot of money."

Scout No. 7: "When those shots [two-point jumpers] are going in, it certainly looks great. But there is so little margin for error for a player who will have one of the more difficult mixes of shot attempts in the league."

Scout No. 4: "He's an interesting guy to peg down. I had him projected pretty well in models, but I'm not the biggest fan of his game overall."


Different NBA Comparisons, One Common Theme

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Nearly a dozen NBA names were tossed out by scouts as comparisons for Tatum. But somehow, no two scouts mentioned the same pro.

Scout No. 3: "A taller Paul Pierce."

Scout No. 6: "Tatum feels like a better talent to me [than Harrison Barnes]. But definitely in the Melo, Tobias Harris, Jabari Parker, Barnes mold."

Scout No. 1: "His game is definitely a bit old school. Some of his one-legged step-back fadeaways are Nowitzki-ish."

Scout No. 3: "I like three different comparisons: Rudy Gay, Danny Granger, Gordon Hayward."

Scout No. 7: talked about Tatum having to replicate DeMar DeRozan's precision based on his current shot selection.

There was, however, a common theme among each comparison nominated.

Scouts clearly see a mid-range scorer capable of becoming a top option in an offense. The question is where Tatum winds up falling on the spectrum of comparisons—closer to the Pierce and Anthony All-Star side or the less valued one near Barnes.

As Scout No. 7: put it, for Tatum, the difference between being an impact player or an "empty-calories" one comes down to  "everything else of his game," including playmaking, defense and rebounding.


Scouts' Emphasis on the Three-Ball

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Tatum took more two-point jumpers (127) than shots at the rim (121) and three-pointers (117) at Duke, which had some scouts in analytics calling for change.

A number of them brought up the importance of Tatum extending his game out behind the arc.

Scout No. 3: "Again, he's the most polished player in the draft, but I wonder how integrable and valuable a killer mid-range, isolation operator is in today's league. And that's what Tatum is until he proves his three-point shot is dependable in the pros."

He still looked capable from deep at Duke. He hit 40 threes at a so-so 34.2 percent clip . It's also worth noting he often played power forward and operated near the high posts and short corners.

Some scouts were optimistic about Tatum developing his range, which not only creates a more well-rounded attack, but makes it easier to score off the ball, where he'll often play in a loaded Celtics lineup.

Scout No. 4: "I'm interested to see how many three-point attempts he takes at the pro level. He took enough at Duke and his free-throw percentage and three-point percentage were high enough that he should be a serviceable shooter in the NBA. He needs to take a similar amount in the pros or I'm unsure how he can contribute efficiently to his team's offense, except in the scenario I described [at the end of games]."

Scout No. 6: "I think he's a very talented player. His upside is going to be his ability to improve on his shot and stretch it to three. I think he will be able to in time."


What to Expect, Development in Boston

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Eastern Conference finalists don't typically have top-three picks in the draft. Tatum is in a unique spot compared to other lottery prospects, most of whom should receive minutes right away for weaker teams.

Boston's additions of Gordon Hayward and Marcus Morris make it even tougher to see Tatum's path toward the rotation, in spite of him being perceived as one of the more NBA-ready rookies.

Scout No. 3: "On a rebuilding, young team, he'd average 15 points per game as a rookie, easy. I thought that all year. On the Celtics? I don't know. He's going to be behind Hayward, Jae Crowder, Morris and you could make a case that Jaylen Brown will be called upon first, if the team needs a defender.

"Luckily, Tatum can play small ball in a pinch. But he won't have an opportunity to tear it up early. That said, it wouldn't be shocking if late-season flashes make him too good to bury in the reserves of a rotation come playoff time."

Tatum is bound to get an opportunity at some point. We'll likely see flashes of one-on-one moves that mirror many of today's stars' and fuel more hype for his sophomore season.

But based on the Celtics' current roster, Tatum looks headed for an inconsistent bench role behind veterans. Will that hurt his development?

Scout No. 8: "I think landing in Boston helps. There is less pressure on him and more weapons around him. It's a good way of being eased into it and learning."

       

Advanced stats courtesy of Hoop-Math.com

Jonathan Wasserman covers the NBA draft for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @NBADraftWass.


bob


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First, the kid is a good shooter. He will extend his range. Second, his "mid-range" game may be more valuable than scouts are realizing. Since GSW revolution, all teams focus on threes and shots at the rim, and defenses have responded, and are often willing to give up the mid-range shot (you can't plan a defense for everything). Thus, having a mid-range assasin might be a brilliant way of exploiting what teams are most willing to give up. Once again, Danny is ahead of the curve.

I very much like this kid. So far, he has looked good, played hard, moves well, handles himself well with the press, and most importantly to me, his summer teammates seemed to readily accept his leadership.

Sure he can (and will) improve in many aspects of his game, but he looks all starish at some point within the next three or so years.

I was really disappointed the Celts passed on Fultz.
But my 2nd choice was Tatum.

Tatum plus the Lakers' 2018 pick is definitely worth giving up the #1 pick, even if the Lakers pick is protected from 2-5.

In the end I think Ainge made the right decision, especially picking Tatum over Josh Jackson.

Fierce, my understanding is that we get the Lakers pick if it is from 2-5 but not if it is #1. Am I incorrect?

worcester wrote:Fierce, my understanding is that we get the Lakers pick if it is from 2-5 but not if it is #1. Am I incorrect?

Yes, you are correct.

We will only be getting the pick if it falls under #2 to #5.
If it's #6 or lower, we will also not be getting it.

fierce wrote:

worcester wrote:Fierce, my understanding is that we get the Lakers pick if it is from 2-5 but not if it is #1. Am I incorrect?

Yes, you are correct.

We will only be getting the pick if it falls under #2 to #5.
If it's #6 or lower, we will also not be getting it.

fierce and worcester,

2018 - if Laker pick = >1 and <6 then it is ours (i.e. 2, 3, 4, 5)

If it is #1 or > #6, then it defaults to Sacramento's #1 pick in 2019.


bob

.

bobheckler wrote:

fierce wrote:

worcester wrote:Fierce, my understanding is that we get the Lakers pick if it is from 2-5 but not if it is #1. Am I incorrect?

Yes, you are correct.

We will only be getting the pick if it falls under #2 to #5.
If it's #6 or lower, we will also not be getting it.

fierce and worcester,

2018 - if Laker pick = >1 and <6 then it is ours (i.e. 2, 3, 4, 5)

If it is #1 or > #6, then it defaults to Sacramento's #1 pick in 2019.


bob

.

With the likes of Jimmy Butler and Paul George moving to the west, I think there's a big chance the Celts will be getting the 2018 Lakers pick.

Lakers will most likely end up the 2nd or 3rd worst team in the west next season.

If the Lakers have the 22nd worst record in the NBA and are 8 from the bottom but the ping pong balls give them the #3 pick. Do we still get their pick then?

worcester wrote:Sat the Lakers have the 22nd worst record in the NBA and are 8 from the bottom but the ping pong balls give them the #3 pick. Do we still get their pick then?

Yes, we get the pick.

dboss wrote:It is a narrow opportunity but we could be looking at 2 first rounders in the top 5 plus our own pick.

This year was a tremendous draft for wings and next year that long sort after Big is ripe for the picking.  We definitely need to add a talented big since Al is getting older.  This will be provide Boston with the time to develop that big and transition if AH leaves when his contract expires.

Danny has everything set up quite nicely for the future.

Dboss

Best case scenario is the Celts get the #1 pick via Nets and the #2 pick via Lakers.

Celts end up with the #1 and #2 pick of the 2018 Draft.

Wow!

Has a team ever had the top 2 picks in a draft before? I don't think so.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Has a team ever had the top 2 picks in a draft before? I don't think so.

Those who think that Danny Ainge is a poor GM should consider what you just wrote.

In regards to Tatum, let's throw out the HOF names like Pierce and Dirk (for now) and not get ahead of ourselves. Paul George and Melo are not quite at the level of PP/Dirk all-time, but I'm going to take them out of the discussion as well. Melo carried his college team to a title and averaged 20.7ppg starting all 82 games as an even younger rookie than Tatum will be and George is simply a far superior athlete and defender (when he wants to be) than we can probably ever hope for from Tatum, so let's not compare him to those 2 either. I'm also going to throw out Gay and Hayward b/c Tatum is going to be a superior rebounder and more capable of playing the PF position than either of them. He is also not the athlete Gay was entering the league, but I think we all expect him to have the better career.

My eye test agrees with the majority opinion of these scouts that worst case scenario Tatum should develop into a combo-forward who is an very good to elite scorer, very good rebounder and above average passer for a wing (or average rebounder and very good passer for a stretch 4/big) and an average to slightly below average defender and needing the most work put in there.

The names of Barnes, Parker, Tobias Harris and Danny Granger make a lot of sense. Since Tatum is entering the NBA after 1 college season and a situation where he won't be asked to do much right away, Barnes time in Golden State where he was surrounded by a talented cast might come to peoples minds first. But Barnes was consistently given 25-30 mins his first 4 years and was a 10/5 guy with terrible efficiency in Golden State despite being a starter on a winner. His scoring went way up in Dallas (the diff btwn a 4th and 1st option) while everything else he was already mediocre at stayed the same. I hope Tatum is not like Barnes.

Harris is just entering his prime now, after being buried for 1.5 seasons in Milwaukee he's been a 16-17 PER, 14-17ppg, 6-7rpg, 51/33/81 split guy since getting 30+ mins per game. He's not known for being much a defender and has that "empty-calorie" feel about him that the scout mentioned and that we don't want Tatum to be like. But we'll see what Harris turns into with Morris out of his way and a defender like Avery on the team and hopefully more maturity and a renewed focus from a pretty talented roster. Tatum doing very little for 1.5 seasons until a 'trade' (Jae or Morris in 2018 or 19 perhaps?) turns him into a 25-30 min 15ppg guy seems very likely to me.

The other young Dukie he is compared to in Jabari Parker hasn't been on the court long enough to know what he really is. 20 pts and 6 rebs in 51 games before his injury (but very poor defensive numbers) is a performance similar to the Tatum scouting report.

Finally, Danny Granger is the only player I'm looking at in this glass half empty/worst case scenario whose prime years we've actually seen. For 5 years age 24-28 before injury unfortunately cut his career short Granger was a 21-23 pt, 5-6 reb, solid but not greater defender, pure SF with 47/38/84 splits and PER's in the 18-21 range.

I think C's fans should set their sights on Jayson Tatum being a very similar player to Danny Granger with a longer/healthier career who they can only hope will develop his 3 point shot but who they should expect to be a better passer/rebounder and have the modern game ability to play the 4, which Granger probably could have done but was not asked to do. Anything more than that will be a bonus. I do hope very much he is not like Barnes, while Harris/Parker as still too young to really whether a comparison to them is going to be a positive or negative.

BleedGreen wrote:In regards to Tatum, let's throw out the HOF names like Pierce and Dirk (for now) and not get ahead of ourselves. Paul George and Melo are not quite at the level of PP/Dirk all-time, but I'm going to take them out of the discussion as well. Melo carried his college team to a title and averaged 20.7ppg starting all 82 games as an even younger rookie than Tatum will be and George is simply a far superior athlete and defender (when he wants to be) than we can probably ever hope for from Tatum, so let's not compare him to those 2 either.  I'm also going to throw out Gay and Hayward b/c Tatum is going to be a superior rebounder and more capable of playing the PF position than either of them. He is also not the athlete Gay was entering the league, but I think we all expect him to have the better career.

My eye test agrees with the majority opinion of these scouts that worst case scenario Tatum should develop into a combo-forward who is an very good to elite scorer, very good rebounder  and above average passer for a wing (or average rebounder and very good passer for a stretch 4/big) and an average to slightly below average defender and needing the most work put in there.

The names of Barnes, Parker, Tobias Harris and Danny Granger make a lot of sense. Since Tatum is entering the NBA after 1 college season and a situation where he won't be asked to do much right away, Barnes time in Golden State where he was surrounded by a talented cast might come to peoples minds first. But Barnes was consistently given 25-30 mins his first 4 years and was a 10/5 guy with terrible efficiency in Golden State despite being a starter on a winner. His scoring went way up in Dallas (the diff btwn a 4th and 1st option) while everything else he was already mediocre at stayed the same. I hope Tatum is not like Barnes.

Harris is just entering his prime now, after being buried for 1.5 seasons in Milwaukee he's been a 16-17 PER, 14-17ppg, 6-7rpg, 51/33/81 split guy since getting 30+ mins per game. He's not known for being much a defender and has that "empty-calorie" feel about him that the scout mentioned and that we don't want Tatum to be like. But we'll see what Harris turns into with Morris out of his way and a defender like Avery on the team and hopefully more maturity and a renewed focus from a pretty talented roster. Tatum doing very little for 1.5 seasons until a 'trade' (Jae or Morris in 2018 or 19 perhaps?) turns him into a 25-30 min 15ppg guy seems very likely to me.

The other young Dukie he is compared to in Jabari Parker hasn't been on the court long enough to know what he really is. 20 pts and 6 rebs in 51 games before his injury (but very poor defensive numbers) is a performance similar to the Tatum scouting report.

Finally, Danny Granger is the only player I'm looking at in this glass half empty/worst case scenario whose prime years we've actually seen. For 5 years age 24-28 before injury unfortunately cut his career short Granger was a 21-23 pt, 5-6 reb, solid but not greater defender, pure SF with 47/38/84 splits and PER's in the 18-21 range.

I think C's fans should set their sights on Jayson Tatum being a very similar player to Danny Granger with a longer/healthier career who they can only hope will develop his 3 point shot but who they should expect to be a better passer/rebounder and have the modern game ability to play the 4, which Granger probably could have done but was not asked to do. Anything more than that will be a bonus. I do hope very much he is not like Barnes, while Harris/Parker as still too young to really whether a comparison to them is going to be a positive or negative.

Bleedgreen,

A pretty reasonable perspective. He's a #3 pick, so it is reasonable to have high expectations, but Paul Pierce? That would be sweet, but let's hold our horses a bit longer. You know, like until after he laces up his NBA sneakers for the first time?

Minor adjustment: If the Harris you are referring to is Tobias Harris, he's with Detroit, not Milwaukee. The SF for the Bucks is Khris Middleton. I'd be quite pleased if Tatum became either one of those two.


bob


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Honestly, if Tatum ends up being just your 5th starter or 6th man and putting up 15pts, 6 rebs and 3 asts a game and average D we shouldn't be too disappointed. Well, only if Brown is a bust AND Danny blows a top 7 pick in 2018 should we be disappointed in that outcome for Tatum.

Guys like Jerome Kersey, Sean Elliot, Hedo Turkoglu, Robert Horry, Lamar Odom, Detlef Schrempf, Cedric Maxwell and Richard Jefferson all played important roles on very good teams while for the most part not being considered top 2 players on those teams. If Tatum carves out a role as an underrated assassin like those guys I'd be secretly happy.

Bleedgreen,

A pretty reasonable perspective.  He's a #3 pick, so it is reasonable to have high expectations, but Paul Pierce?  That would be sweet, but let's hold our horses a bit longer.  You know, like until after he laces up his NBA sneakers for the first time?

Minor adjustment:  If the Harris you are referring to is Tobias Harris, he's with Detroit, not Milwaukee.  The SF for the Bucks is Khris Middleton.  I'd be quite pleased if Tatum became either one of those two.


bob


Thanks Bob

I definitely meant Tobias Harris. He was buried in Milwaukee for 1.5 seasons as I said. I just didn't say which team he is now entering his prime with, which is of course the Pistons. Right after mentioning his 'empty-calorie' reputation I said Morris is out of his way and Avery is bringing defensive toughness so maybe Harris will truly come into his own this season.