Jayson Tatum vs. Lonzo Ball: Comparing Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers rookie classes in early going

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Jayson Tatum vs. Lonzo Ball: Comparing Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers rookie classes in early going








Updated 9:25 AM; Posted 9:22 AM




Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) scores during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Atlanta Hawks Monday, Nov. 6, 2017, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)(John Bazemore)




By Tom Westerholm



The Boston Celtics were almost certainly never going to draft Lonzo Ball.


There were a variety of reasons for this. Pre-draft, Ball seemed very focused on ending up with the Los Angeles Lakers and reportedly declined to work out for the Celtics. Danny Ainge also reportedly coveted Jayson Tatum above all other prospects from the start, and then-Celtics-star Isaiah Thomas seemed to be pushing for Markelle Fultz in the point-guard class.


But Ball also didn't make a lot of sense for the Celtics from a personnel perspective. The Celtics prefer lengthy wings who can develop into talented two-way players, especially with so many good point guards available in today's NBA.


That logic turned out to be good -- Boston drafted Tatum, Kyrie Irving requested a trade, the Celtics ponied up big value, and both rookie and star point guard are now thriving. The Lakers took Lonzo -- and all the Lavar Ball drama that comes with him -- as well as forward Kyle Kuzma with the 27th pick. 


The Celtics and Lakers will match up on Wednesday on ESPN at 8 p.m., pitting their touted rookie classes against one another. The game is a chance for fans of both rival franchises to bicker loudly on Twitter about who came out ahead in the 2017 NBA Draft, so here are a few thoughts one day before.


1. This is all wildly premature. 


I can't stress enough how premature any comparison of Ball, Tatum, Kuzma and even Semi Ojeleye is at this point. The Celtics have played 11 games. The Lakers have played 10. Kuzma and Ball have taken a combined 229 shots, while Tatum has taken 102. 


The Celtics and Lakers are also completely different teams. Los Angeles is 5-5, which is roughly three games better than most people expected they would be at this point, but Boston is 9-2 and appears to be a legitimate Eastern Conference challenger. Since losing Gordon Hayward, the Celtics have won nine straight and are statistically the best defense in the league.


Tatum is starting for the Celtics and has contributed to winning basketball, while Kuzma and Ball have had the ultimate green light both as shooters and (in Ball's case) as the primary show-runner. The players are different and the roles are different, so once again: Take all stats with an entire salt shaker. 


That said ... 




2. Jayson Tatum has fit the Celtics perfectly, while Lonzo Ball has struggled.


If you've been paying any attention whatsoever to the Celtics, you are aware Tatum has been good.
How good? Try 52.9 percent from 3-point range, and 54.8 percent during non-garbage-time minutes (per Cleaning The Glass), a total which places him in the 96th percentile among NBA wings. He's been reliable from other distances as well -- he's making 43 percent off his long two-pointers, which places him in the 70th percentile among wings. Long twos aren't a staple of the Celtics offense, but they add depth to Tatum's game. He hasn't been particularly good around the rim, finishing just 52 percent of his shots (19th percentile among wings), but he has shown potential utilizing his length and touch.





Ball, meanwhile, hasn't hit his offensive stride yet. The 6-foot-6 former UCLA star has an effective field-goal percentage of just 34.6 and has hit just 23.4 percent of his triples. His abysmal offensive rating (84) is only slightly more abysmal than his defensive rating (103). As a passer, he's very advanced. As a scorer? Less so. Defensively, Tatum has been a revelation. He adjusted quickly to Boston's rotations and flashed potential containing smaller ball-handlers at the top of the key. He's also contributing to Boston's fourth-ranked defensive rebounding percentage, grabbing 15.5 percent of all available defensive boards.

Ball has never been a plus defender and he hasn't changed that narrative in the early going. What Ball has done at a high level is rebound. At 6-foot-6 with a high basketball IQ, Ball has always been excellent at pulling down a board and making a quick decision to either fire a pass ahead or push the pace himself. Grabbing 15.3 percent of all defensive rebounds, Ball is in the 96th percentile among all guards as a defensive rebounder.


And here's the thing (again) about every single one of those numbers, for both Tatum and Ball: It's way too early to draw any conclusions! Tatum isn't going to shoot 52.9 percent from behind the arc for his entire career. Ball was an effective 3-point shooter in college (and rookie point guards frequently need extra time to develop). The most definitive conclusion we can draw is Boston has reason to be extremely encouraged by Tatum, while the Lakers will need to be a little more patient with Ball.




3. Kyle Kuzma looks like a legitimate NBA player. 


Selecting Kuzma was a move widely praised by draft analysts, but few expected him to immediately be one of the best wings on the Lakers. Kuzma is athletic and skilled, both off the catch and off the dribble. He's been excellent close to the basket, finishing at a 79-percent clip around the rim (87th percentile! As a rookie!) and making 33 percent of his 3-pointers. Kuzma has shown nice defensive potential as well, with a 6-foot-9 frame and a 7-foot wingspan.

So how legitimate is Kyle Kuzma? Here's my definitive analysis: It's still way too early to tell! (You may be seeing a pattern here.) But his early projections look like a starter as a combo forward with good 3-point potential.




4. Semi Ojeleye also looks like a legitimate NBA player. 


We won't spend too much time here, but it's worth noting that Boston also got a wing defender who keeps forcing his way into the Celtics' crowded combo-forward rotation with his strength and defensive versatility. Meanwhile, after a slow start offensively, Ojeleye is knocking down 42.9 percent of his triples and might be a picture-perfect 3-and-D player.




5. So what's the conclusion?


Put most simply, rookies require patience. Tatum has been slotted into a difficult situation (with obvious advantages such as "playing with Kyrie Irving), and he has been a revelation. Ball is in perhaps a more difficult situation (with obvious advantages such as "complete autonomy within Los Angeles' system"), and he looks like a rookie with absurdly high expectations. Kuzma and Ojeleye are both talented 22-year-old wing/forwards who came into the league a little more NBA-ready than their 19-year-old rookie counterparts.


Wednesday's matchup will undoubtedly generate takes. If Tatum shines and Ball struggles, the Celtics will be lauded for having the foresight to grab an extra asset while still getting their guy. If the opposite happens, the Lakers will be lauded for taking a player who changes the culture. Pre-draft expectations still shape rookies at this point to a large degree. In both cases: Remember that Wednesday's game will be the 11th and 12th NBA contest for Ball and Tatum respectively. Both have a long way to go.

Of course, it's also worth noting the Celtics employ Kyrie Irving and Al Horford. That could make a big difference as well.




bob




.

I knew Kuzma was going to be terrific. I knew that Semi could defend and shoot.

I knew that Ball could run and offense and I knew Tatum could handle the ball and excel in the midrange game

What I am surprised about is that Kuzma is more athletic than I thought.

I am surprised that Semi has carved his way into the rotation so soon and is playing NBA level defense and his offense is starting to become a factor.

I am surprised that Balls shooting is even worse than I had imagined. I knew he could score.

I am surprised that Tatum has played at a consistent level and is a much better 3 point shooter than expected.

Up the road a few years the debate over which players turned out better will be more appropriate.

dboss

Did he really just say Olejeye (and Kouzma) are more NBA ready than Tatum???