The definitive Boston Celtics NBA trade deadline primer

http://celticswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/26/boston-celtics-nba-trade-deadline-primer/





The definitive Boston Celtics NBA trade deadline primer
















By: Greg Cassoli | 3 hours ago






The NBA trade deadline is February 8. The Boston Celtics have a number of variables to account for heading into it. We’ve laid them all out for you here.


The NBA trade deadline is fast approaching, and the Boston Celtics find themselves in an interesting situation. They’re in first place in the Eastern Conference, competing at the game’s highest level despite having lost star free agent addition, Gordon Hayward, just five minutes into the season.


Boston’s competitiveness in the face of Hayward’s injury complicates what promised to be an already complex trade deadline, as the Celtics look to continue to balance winning in the present with building for the future. Evaluating all the possible moves that could be made is no small task, but that’s where we come in.


We’ve outlined everything you need to know entering the February 8 trade deadline, starting with team context and moving into a few potential types of trades.



The Celtics have been great to start the year. They have the best record in the Eastern Conference, the NBA’s fourth-best point differential, and a defense that has been the league’s best for the overwhelming majority of the season.


They also have a missing star and very little realistic chance to beat a team like the Golden State Warriors in a seven-game series, assuming they can even get out of the East.


Boston is at a mini organizational crossroads, best equipped to contend for titles in several years’ time, but close enough to doing so in the present that looking to upgrade the roster to compete right now is justified.


A timeline for contention that is muddled by whether to fully commit to the present or future is an envious problem to have, but it makes the need for delicate navigation no less real. The Celtics still have a ton of future assets at their disposal – too many to use without cutting bait on some of their current players under contract over the course of the next several years. They just did it last offseason and may be forced to do it again over the next couple years.


Boston can sacrifice a draft pick or a young player to up its chances of winning this year, without mortgaging the future. Should the Celtics pursue a trade, they could use a bench scorer/creator, additional shooting or a mobile rim protector. Boston won’t be able to fill all of those needs with a single player, but a couple acquisitions could allow them to check off these boxes.


In the long-term, the Celtics could use an increase in elite-level talent. We’ll get into why adding a star in the next several weeks is unlikely, but it is helpful to keep the need for doing so in mind when evaluating any personnel decision.


If making a trade to solve present needs hinders Boston’s ability to land a franchise-altering talent down the road, then it may be best to stay away.

FINANCIAL CONTEXT

The Celtics have $110 million dollars in committed contracts this year, and another $101 million guaranteed through the 2018-19 campaign, per our good friends at HoopsHype.


The salary cap isn’t set for next year, but a major increase from this year’s cap, set at $99.093 million, isn’t expected. The $101 million Boston has on the books for 2018-19 doesn’t assume new contracts for impending free agents Marcus Smart (restricted), Aron Baynes, or Shane Larkin.


All that to say, it is safe to assume that the Celtics will be capped out for the foreseeable future, and may very well crack the threshold for luxury tax payments, $119.266 million, as soon as one year’s time.


Such is the nature of contending for titles. Building a championship-caliber team requires a lot of money, and Boston actually sits in a much more stable financial position than many of its peers, thanks in large part to the number of contributors on its roster who are still playing on their rookie deals.


Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier, and Smart are all providing value beyond what they’re being paid.


Those contracts are massively helpful in being able to free up enough cap space to lure free agents with big money, as has been proven the past two summers, but they actually make finding suitable trades a bit more challenging.


Most players that are capable of shifting the trajectory of a team in a meaningful way are on big-money contracts. The Celtics can’t aggregate enough salary to adhere to the league’s salary matching requirements without overpaying from a talent perspective.


Boston does have one juicy roster building tool left in its belt, however. The Hayward injury resulted in an $8.4 million disabled player exception (DPE). The DPE can be used in a trade, partially or in its entirety, provided that the player joining the Celtics is in the final year of his contract. The DPE can’t be aggregated with other salaries, and can only be used once, on a single player.


With that context set, let’s dive into some possible types of trades that Boston could make, starting with the most likely, and ending with the least.

A ONE-YEAR RENTAL

Having the DPE and a bevy of future draft picks at their disposal increases the Celtics’ ability to pursue a “rental” player, an in-season upgrade that doesn’t stick with the team beyond this year. If all Boston has to surrender is one of its own first-round picks or an end of the bench player that another team thinks has the potential to grow into a more substantive role (e.g. Abdel Nader or Guerschon Yabusele), then making a move may make sense.


Tyreke Evans is the natural target here. He’s playing on a cheap one-year deal with the struggling Memphis Grizzlies. The Celtics could desperately use his ability as a playmaker and scorer.


Other players that fit the mold include Lou Williams, Wayne Ellington, Marco Belinelli, and Will Barton. Each come with varying degrees of availability, talent, and associated costs to acquire, all of which add up to make them less natural fits than Evans.


Willams may no longer be ascertainable after filling in as the Clippers’ best scorer this season and nearly making the All-Star team. The Clippers will have a high asking price if they decide to move him and Memphis has let it be known throughout the league that they want a pair of first-rounders for Evans. Nobody is biting on those prices for good bench players who they don’t want to overpay next summer, so it remains to be seen how much the price will drop on deadline day.


There is also a reasonable argument to be made that the Celtics making a short-term move just because they have a financial tool to do so doesn’t make much sense.


Boston can use the DPE to simply sign a free-agent, and may be better off waiting out the buyout market.

MINOR UPGRADE(S)

The Celtics are a very young team. That’s a good thing in many senses, but it may be detrimental in the postseason. If Boston isn’t high on one of its younger pieces, they may look to make a swap for a cheap veteran on a bad team looking to place as many bets on developmental projects as possible.


Potential targets include Quincy Acy and Luke Babbitt.


If you’re looking at that duo and thinking, “Those aren’t particularly sexy options,” you’re correct. A move of this nature would simply be an effort to shore up the end of the Celtics’ bench. The goal would be to give Brad Stevens one more option in the event of injury.


The likelihood of this kind of trade happening is low, particularly given Danny Ainge’s penchant for believing in his young guys. A deal of this nature really only makes sense if Boston is ready to give up on one of Nader or Yabusele.

A RESTRICTED ROLL OF THE DICE

There isn’t going to be a lot of money in the free agent market next summer and restricted free agents may feel the squeeze more than any other demographic. Boston may be able to capitalize on those market forces by trading for an impending restricted free agent.


The Celtics could then enter negotiations this summer with the hopes of signing the player they acquired to a below-market deal. Boston already has one player on its roster that fits such a profile in Marcus Smart.


The Celtics could look to add another like Julius Randle or Rodney Hood, or take a big swing at a player like Aaron Gordon.


Landing Gordon would require a ton in the way of compensation and his next contract would push Boston deep into the luxury tax. But if the Celtics think Gordon could blossom under Brad Stevens, then giving up a lot and footing a tax bill may be worth pursuing an elite athlete with star potential.


That might not be the most palatable end game, but it doesn’t have to be the final step. Gordon could later be used as a centerpiece for a blockbuster trade in the future (he’d have to approve any trade in the first year of a deal if he accepted an offer sheet from another team, but could be traded without restriction after that point).


Of course, the same is true of less pricey options like Randle and Hood, which makes a deal for either of them substantially more likely.

TRADING FOR A SUPERSTAR

There is an obvious target for Boston in Anthony Davis, but it’s exceedingly unlikely that Boston would be able to pull off a trade for the Pelicans’ big this season. The Brow has denied having even entertained the idea of asking for a trade, and, as discussed above, the Celtics don’t have the right contracts to make a deal that really makes sense from both sides. Also, the Pelicans have no reason to move Davis since he’s under contract for several more years, so there’s no risk of him walking as a free agent.


That could change over the summer, or by next year’s trade deadline, but for now it’s best to keep expectations low.


There aren’t any other superstars on the market at the moment, but things change fast. With limited cap space available on the market this offseason and Boston being capped out of making a free agency play, they could pounce with a high-value package if anything arises, just like they did when Kyrie Irving became available.




bob




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I like they Tyreke Evans option as previously discussed on this forum.

Adding either Babbit or Acy is like playing musical chairs. A mindless game.

Gordon is only 22 years old and is the best player on Orlando. Unlikely that Boston would be able to get him without parting with a pick and a player but who knows Orlando has proven to be a rather stupid team that cannot seem to make up their mind on what they need to do.

Obviously not a lot of options. But I do agree that Boston could use some scoring off the bench and another rebounder. (preferably a center with some length)

dboss

This is such a crap shoot. All of a sudden, on February 8th some player that we never gave thought to may be bought out, cut, whatever and bingo! we will solve our problem. I like Tyreke Evans, he is a solid player, I can't believe he has been on so many teams. No way Williams becomes available, that would put the Clippers in a deep hole, unless that is where they want to be. If a trade is made for Jordan, than maybe Williams becomes available in a complete blowup.

Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda.............this is a chess game no matter what way you slice it

Interesting piece on why Memphis should Trade Evans.

https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/2018/1/26/16932406/tyreke-evans-memphis-grizzlies-nba-trade-rumors

There are few few trade scenarios but none involving Boston.  Memphis is heading into a rebuilding mode.  

Evans is a free agent next year.  We really need a scorer off the bench this year if the Celtics are looking to make a run at the title, he may fit that role.  Memphis would probably fall over on any deal that included a 1st round pick.  The Celtics could use one of their less valuable 1st rounders in a deal.  Maybe give up two of their bench/G-league guys (Yabusele, Allen, Bird, Nader)

The Celtics should not make a trade for Evans unless they are leaning towards resigning him.  The DPE should be the tool used for any rentals.

The Celtics are likely to be very good team for years to come so their own 1st rounders are likely to be bottom 5 or lower.  The other low valued pick is the LAC pick because it is lottery protected (1-14) in 2019 and 2020 and if not conveyed by 2020 it turns into a 2nd rounder in 2022.  Not a lot of value in that pick because the Clippers have already crossed the threshold into the rebuilding zone and over the next few years they will be moving a lot of parts around the board.  In essence the LAC pick is probably the least valuable one of all.

11 days and counting to the deadline.

dboss

With Conley going down for the rest of the season, I wonder if Memphis will trade Evans, they still have a core of season ticket holders that are out there every game waiting for them to win a few games. without Evans, that chance is almost gone.

Rosalie

Memphis is 17-31.  In absence of divine intervention they are a lottery team.  Their style of play does not put them in the conversation as a team that can win.

They have to change the team.  Fans probably already know this.  Evans is in his prime at 28 and is not a player that is part of their long term plans.  He is a low cost asset that can be leveraged to acquire young talent.

The Celtics core is very young and could absorb a player like Evans and could even use him in a future trade.

Dboss

Hi,
How's Evans on defense?
Also, if Memphis wants to trade him and DA has attractive package, why wait for Feb. 8?

AK

sinus007 wrote:Hi,
How's Evans on defense?
Also, if Memphis wants to trade him and DA has attractive package, why wait for Feb. 8?

AK

He is an average defender with a rating of 105.2  He has the physical attributes to be a better defender.  The Celtics have a great defenders but I do think that part of their lofty individual defensive ratings reflect a team defensive concept.  

I think Danny may very well wait to see if a player gets cut so that he can use the DPE.  In other words I do not expect Danny to go after Evans although previously he was a player that they had some interest in him.

In light of the recent Marcus Smart situation Danny may decide to trade him for a player that can come off the bench and help the team this year.  I would think that a low salaried player like Evans may be a good fit and if he were to play well the remainder of the year the cost to resign him may be very reasonable.  If things do not work out his money is off the books and you would have parted with Marcus for a player that logged 30 or so games for you.  That sounds like a bad deal unless you are leaning away from resigning Marcus anyways.

We have seen virtually no tangible reports out of the Celtics camp regarding their interest in a particular player.  I have read that they are actively looking to make a move.

dboss

dboss wrote:Rosalie

Memphis is 17-31.  In absence of divine intervention they are a lottery team.  Their style of play does not put them in the conversation as a team that can win.

They have to change the team.  Fans probably already know this.  Evans is in his prime at 28 and is not a player that is part of their long term plans.  He is a low cost asset that can be leveraged to acquire young talent.

The Celtics core is very young and could absorb a player like Evans and could even use him in a future trade.

Dboss

It does look like one of those rumors that just won't go away.

A Memphis beat writer tweeted earlier tonight that although it was not confirmed, don't be surprised if Evens gets traded to Boston.

That's still less than concrete, but it is also coming from the other side of the rumored swap.

Possible Tyreke Evans Move In The Works?
January 28th, 2018 at 6:03pm CST by Austin Kent
A Grizzlies beat writer says that he wouldn’t be surprised if Tyreke Evans is moved to the Celtics. Bear in mind that Ronald Tillery of The Memphis Commercial Appeal says himself that the rumblings aren’t confirmed but it’s not the first time that Evans’ name has come up in trade speculation this season.

It’s unclear what the Grizzlies could get back in exchange for the versatile wing but the Celtics are in possession of Memphis’ 2019 first-round pick.

RETWEETLIKESEND VIA EMAIL

NYCelt wrote:

dboss wrote:Rosalie

Memphis is 17-31.  In absence of divine intervention they are a lottery team.  Their style of play does not put them in the conversation as a team that can win.

They have to change the team.  Fans probably already know this.  Evans is in his prime at 28 and is not a player that is part of their long term plans.  He is a low cost asset that can be leveraged to acquire young talent.

The Celtics core is very young and could absorb a player like Evans and could even use him in a future trade.

Dboss

It does look like one of those rumors that just won't go away.

A Memphis beat writer tweeted earlier tonight that although it was not confirmed, don't be surprised if Evens gets traded to Boston.

That's still less than concrete, but it is also coming from the other side of the rumored swap.

Possible Tyreke Evans Move In The Works?
January 28th, 2018 at 6:03pm CST by Austin Kent
A Grizzlies beat writer says that he wouldn’t be surprised if Tyreke Evans is moved to the Celtics. Bear in mind that Ronald Tillery of The Memphis Commercial Appeal says himself that the rumblings aren’t confirmed but it’s not the first time that Evans’ name has come up in trade speculation this season.

It’s unclear what the Grizzlies could get back in exchange for the versatile wing but the Celtics are in possession of Memphis’ 2019 first-round pick.

RETWEETLIKESEND VIA EMAIL

I certainly hope that the Memphis pick is not part of that deal. That is a very valuable pick (top 8 protected 2019, top 6 protected 2020 and unprotected 2021. I think the Clipper's pick would not hurt too much. The Memphis pick could hatch into another golden egg.

dboss

Well, you know what they say, where there is smoke there is fire.

BobH has been a big Evans fan for a few years. To me it is interesting that a guy with his talent keeps being the one on the short end of the stick when it comes to trades.

Now, by trading for him, we are just getting someone for right now?
His is a free agent after the year, right? Would they be asking for a player in return or a pick (s)

RosalieTCeltics wrote:Well, you know what they say, where there is smoke there is fire.  

BobH has been a big Evans fan for a few years. To me it is interesting that a guy with his talent keeps being the one on the short end of the stick when it comes to trades.  

Now, by trading for him, we are just getting someone for right now?
His is a free agent after the year, right? Would they be asking for a player in return or a pick (s)

Rosalie

Evans has had some injury issues and he has played on very dysfunctional teams in Sacramento and NO.

If Boston does not retain Marcus it will leave a big hole in the rotation. So if they go after Evans and part with a pick and maybe a low cost non rotation player or two they probably would be looking for him to resign.

Memphis has to rebuild so a draft pick would probably be appealing.

I'm thinking that Boston could keep Marcus and trade for Evans and then make a decision on one or the other at the end of the season.

Lotta options to consider.

dboss

http://celticswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/28/report-boston-celtics-potential-nba-trade-deadline-tyreke-evans/



Report: Boston Celtics potential trade destination for Tyreke Evans



By: Jared Weiss | 2 hours ago


Memphis Grizzlies guard Tyreke Evans is going to be one of the hottest targets at the trade deadline, with the Boston Celtics reportedly in pursuit.

The Boston Celtics have spent the season with an open roster spot, potentially trading for some scoring help with their $8.4 million disabled player exception they received for Gordon Hayward’s broken ankle.

Ronald Tillery of the Memphis Commercial Appeal now reports that the Memphis Grizzlies’ Tyreke Evans may be their target with the February NBA NBa trade deadline around the corner.


Boston is still in need of some scoring punch to supplement Kyrie Irving and Evans fits that bill quite well. He’s averaging 19.4 points and 5.0 assists per game, his best numbers since his rookie of the year campaign in 2009-2010 for the Sacramento Kings.

He’s in the prime of his career, turning 28 before the season and is on the final year of his contract. The Celtics could absorb his salary with the DPE because he is on the last year of his deal, but they can only send out draft picks if they use the DPE.

Boston owns all of its first-round picks and also owns the Clippers’ 2019 lottery-protected pick and the Grizzlies’ 2019 pick protected 1-8. Boston has been reticent to surrender a first-round pick for short-term help in the past few years, but they appear closer to the Finals than last year with the way Cleveland has looked and how Boston has played against the Golden State Warriors. They could use the second-round split structure, pledging a protected first-rounder that rolls over into a pair of second-rounders if it doesn’t convey after a certain period of time.

Additionally, Boston would only have non-bird rights if they acquired him, meaning they would only be able to offer to him the mid-level exception in free agency next season since they are well over the cap. That is assuming they want to retain him, which would possibly mean letting Marcus Smart walk to minimize the luxury tax hit as the team eyes Terry Rozier’s free agency next summer.

Their next two second-round picks are currently committed to Oklahoma City and Memphis coincidentally, so it is hard to find a fair value deal for Evans without including a first-rounder. There is always the possibility of swapping Smart for Evans, but Evans’ market may be out of reach this summer and he’s half a decade older than Smart.

Evans has been out the past week with flu-like symptoms and his availability for Monday’s game against the Phoenix Suns is still unknown.



bob



.

I would assume that this is a deal the Celtics could make that would finally get the guy you have followed for quite a while, right Bob???

So if they let Marcus walk, keep Rozier, draft that laker 2-5 pick, would they have to then trade Evans??? Or is this a player who would be worth keeping. At some point in time, the Celtics will have to face the fact that they will be over the cap and have to pay a luxury tax.
If they want to become relevant and considered a true threat, they will have to do this.

Is Evans a guy you would be willing to go over the cap with?????

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I would assume that this is a deal the Celtics could make that would finally get the guy you have followed for quite a while, right Bob???

So if they let Marcus walk, keep Rozier, draft that laker 2-5 pick, would they have to then trade Evans??? Or is this a player who would be worth keeping.  At some point in time, the Celtics will have to face the fact that they will be over the cap and have to pay a luxury tax.
If they want to become relevant and considered a true threat, they will have to do this.

Is Evans a guy you would be willing to go over the cap with?????

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Rosalie I think Boston is already over the Cap.  Also I think they could be limited in what they can offer Evans next year.  I do not think they will have Bird Rights so the most they could offer would be the MLE.  I am not positive about that but I believe that Evans would have to be on the same team for 3 years.  Memphis signed him using the bi-annul exception for $3.29 million.

Boston could offer him the MLE for next season at $8.8 million and still stay below the Luxury Tax threshold.  He is an UFA so any team could sign him using the MLE except if that team is already a luxury tax paying team the MLE would be around $5.4 million.  There are  only 5 teams with cap space.  I think Boston would have an excellent chance to keep him next year unless he wants to play elsewhere at the MLE rate or one of the Cap friendly teams can offer more.

I think the Celtics should make a trade for him but I also think they should keep Marcus.  At the end of the year both of them will be free agents.  If they can keep Evans for around $9 million they would probably do that.  While we have heard different numbers about Smart's value, who really knows?  Until free agency begins we will not know how  much a team is willing to pay him.  He should command more than Evans because he is younger.  Since Boston has to consider the luxury tax down the road they are not going to want to pay Marcus more than $10 million.  And they still have to find some room to resign Baynes I would think.

Really could drive a person carzy!  Anyways let's see what happens.

dboss

I believe that salaries for guys like Evans and Smart are going to return to what we saw as normal before these last two years. Both guys are good players, but each has some holes as well (Smart on offense and Evans with injuries). Overall salaries went crazy two years ago as the cap went up so much to the point where guys like Turner got $17M per season.

The cap is much lower right now, and salaries even started to return to normalcy for mid level players last summer. This is going to continue and I bet that no more middle of the pack players get anywhere near what Turner (and others) got. I have to believe that Portand wished that they had never given Turner what he got about five days into his first season with them.

Avery Bradley is better than all three of the guys I have mentioned, and I don't think that he will get anywhere near $15M next summer in free agency so these other guys will either sign for $8-12M or they will have to try Europe or China.

Only all star level "star" players will sign for big money from here on out, and it will not take too many more seasons before that big money and long term deals starts to dry up for this level player as well. The luxury tax takes a big bite out of any team's budget and it is soon going to be very difficult the have two and a half or three max contracts on any team. If you do not want to pay big tax dollars how can you expect to win with three max guys ($90-95 M) and still have 12 other guys on your payroll until most every veteran player decides to take deals like David West has with the Warriors?

If this is the case then there are going to be some disappointed players out there who saw some of their fellow players get, what I call it, CRAZY MONEY! There are agents out there who will convince their players to hold on for that kind of money.

The only person who played for the Celtics and got somewhat of a huge raise and is playing well is Kelly.
Turner got ridiculous money, so crazy that at one point they were trying to trade him and no one would bite.
I have not really followed him this year. I do know Lillard is having a great year, but have not really heard anything about Turner.

Anyway, if Smart thinks he is worth a big pay raise, he is gone from here. The good old days are long gone, and the loyalty card has been thrown out of the deck for both owners and players.

I wish it was February 9th!!!!

If this is the case then there are going to be some disappointed players out there who saw some of their fellow players get, what I call it, CRAZY MONEY! There are agents out there who will convince their players to hold on for that kind of money.

The only person who played for the Celtics and got somewhat of a huge raise and is playing well is Kelly.
Turner got ridiculous money, so crazy that at one point they were trying to trade him and no one would bite.
I have not really followed him this year. I do know Lillard is having a great year, but have not really heard anything about Turner.

Anyway, if Smart thinks he is worth a big pay raise, he is gone from here. The good old days are long gone, and the loyalty card has been thrown out of the deck for both owners and players.

I wish it was February 9th!!!!

Rosalie,

Smart may "think" that he should get a huge raise and may think that he will get such huge contract from some other team, but I do not see any team going anywhere near $15M per year for him.

He could be back in Boston (and, I hope that he is) for a big raise, but still not anything near $15M per year.
We need to remember that if he gets an $8M per year contract for next year, he is getting around a 100% raise.

Evans seems worth a low-first rounder as a rental. With Cleveland struggling and the team looking competitive against the GSW (even without Hayward) adding a player like Evans could give us the added scoring we need to take things to the next level. Things would be especially good if we then signed a bought out Greg Monroe with the DPE, and Hayward came back for the playoffs.

Sixers, Thunder and Cavs are apparently also interested in Evans

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On @Toucherandrich, Danny Ainge says he's "pretty sure" the #Celtics will use their $8.4M Disabled Player Exception to acquire a player via trade, or someone who has been bought out.

6:16 AM - 1 Feb 2018



bob
MY NOTE:  Uh, yep, those are the options.  What this says to me is that Danny has his eyes on a few players and he has an idea of what it would take to make the deals happen and he's ok with the costs, that's why he's "pretty sure".  The deals are fairly defined, at this point, he just has to pull the trigger on the one he wants.  One thing he might be juggling is the timing of signing Monroe, who is currently available and no doubt entertaining offers, and trying to get Tyreke Evans, who is being held out of games until the trade deadline (personally, I don't understand this.  Is he so fragile they are afraid he might hurt himself?  What about rust from not playing?  Chris Wallace is playing a strange game here, imo).  Does Danny bite quickly and bag Monroe, or does he play the waiting game for Evans and, if he doesn't get him, hope that Monroe is still available?  Because Monroe has been bought out the deal doesn't have to happen by the deadline.




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