Boston Celtics trade deadline primer: Jimmy Butler? Paul George? A smaller trade? Or a quiet deadline?

by **bobheckler** Sun Feb 19, 2017 2:41 pm

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2017/02/boston_celtics_trade_deadline_1.html

BOSTON CELTICS - MASSLIVE.COM

Boston Celtics trade deadline primer: Jimmy Butler? Paul George? A smaller trade? Or a quiet deadline?

Updated February 19, 2017
Posted February 18, 2017

Here we are at NBA All-Star weekend -- the annual display of halfhearted basketball that could be thrilling if players tried impeding each other just a little -- which means we have also arrived at the week before the trade deadline.

In what has become a yearly tradition, the Boston Celtics enter the dealing season with as many options as anyone. They could stand pat with the current No. 2 seed, see what happens in the (possibly) vulnerable East, and hold onto all their assets and future flexibility. They could make a minor trade(s) to address their biggest issues in rebounding, rim protection and/or wing size. They could pile future draft picks on top of each other, throw in a starting-caliber player like Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley or Jae Crowder, and finally convince a rival club to send another star their way.

What will the Celtics do? Let's break down some of the factors that will impact their direction.
AP photo

At risk of deflating some anticipation, let’s start with Brad Stevens’ recent claim that he does not expect the Celtics roster to shift considerably prior to the trade deadline. During a recent interview with CSNNE’s Kyle Draper, Stevens said the team experienced greater anxiety at previous trade deadlines.

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2017/02/boston_celtics_trade_deadline_1.html?guid=StevensandDraper021717

“When we have a team like we have now, I don’t anticipate a ton of change,” Stevens said. “But you never know what comes to the table.”

A few reasons why the Celtics might not undergo big moves:

1. The top targets don't seem to be available

Things could change later. The Chicago Bulls have explored the market for Jimmy Butler in the past. The Indiana Pacers could get spooked about the prospect of losing Paul George when he hits free agency at the end of next season. The Sacramento Kings seem to bounce from one mindset to another every week, and, some day, could get sick of DeMarcus Cousins’ antics.

But the Celtics and Bulls failed to work out a deal this past summer. The Pacers are reportedly looking to acquire help for George, which suggests they still hope to make things work. The Kings will likely give Cousins a super-max contract – and, anyway, the Celtics might not want to take a risk on the combustible big man. The new designated veteran player exception could give teams greater hope of keeping their own stars, and there just isn’t the obvious target out there who makes you think: “Man, Team X needs to trade that guy.”
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

2. The Celtics are patient

If they want to take a big swing anyway, the Celtics could alter their scope and chase somebody like the obviously available Carmelo Anthony. But that specific target would remove Boston from the free-agent market this summer, something the organization would like to avoid. Even if they don’t have a great chance to acquire somebody like Gordon Hayward or Blake Griffin, the Celtics believe their odds are greater than zero – and they do not want to take themselves out of the running by settling on a lesser alternative.

One plugged-in person compared the Anthony situation to Allen Iverson’s near the end of his career. Before the Denver Nuggets acquired Iverson, the Celtics batted around the possibility of acquiring the Hall of Famer. They ultimately passed in a decision that, later, allowed them to add Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett in a single summer. Iverson gave the Nuggets a couple of highly productive seasons but never turned them into a contender. The Celtics missed out on a star addition but left themselves in position to strike when a (much) better opportunity came down the pike.

Anthony remains a really good player but has already started to decline. Because of that, his contract has become a hindrance. One day, the Celtics will find better opportunities to build a sustainable contender. They have not broken from a desire to build for the long term.

3. The uncertainty of the Nets draft pick

Even if the Bulls or Pacers strongly consider moving their top players, the uncertain value of the 2017 Brooklyn Nets draft pick could push more serious conversations into the summer. It would make sense for both sides to know exactly what a potential deal would involve. The Celtics will almost certainly own a top-four lottery pick, but, even in this deep draft, the difference between No. 1 and No. 4 is considerable.

If they receive some Ping Pong ball luck, maybe the Celtics would want to keep the top pick because of how strongly they believe in Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball. Maybe they would be more likely to trade that pick because it would make the top targets more attainable. One way or another, opportunities will be shaped by lottery night.
AP photo

But what about a smaller deal?

The Celtics could use more athleticism and force in the frontcourt, or a reliable rotation wing with size. Danny Ainge knows his team’s weaknesses as well as anyone, but also wants to avoid hurting his team in another category. Adding an elite rebounder could hurt Boston’s greatest strength – the ability to spread the court for Isaiah Thomas, run some offense through perimeter-oriented big men, and rain buckets on top of people’s heads.

Ainge also recently said the Celtics want to avoid a “Band-Aid” or rent-a-player who does not fit into the organization’s long-term plans. When coupled with the team’s desire to keep top flexibility – and avoid the addition of future salary – Boston will be limited in potential options this week.
AP photo

Did Kevin Love's injury change anything?

Probably not. The Cleveland Cavaliers look more vulnerable than they did a few months ago, but should still welcome back Love and J.R. Smith before the playoffs. At full strength, the Cavaliers rank as the obvious Eastern Conference favorite. Even at less than full strength, they still have LeBron James, who hasn’t missed the Finals in more than half a decade; Kyrie Irving, whose shotmaking breaks necks; and a horde of shooters that will stretch out any defense.

Even if the Celtics think they have a real shot to down the Cavaliers, the Golden State Warriors will likely be waiting to drop an avalanche of beautiful basketball on their Finals opponent. Sacrificing some real assets could help Boston compete in the East, but loading up for this year – when the Warriors look like such heavy favorites – seems unwise.

Still, I have been thinking about this question:
Ap photo

Has Isaiah Thomas' rise changed anything?

Regardless of their place in the East this year, the Celtics want to focus on the long-term future. They’re in such a good place right now that the biggest crime would be screwing it up. Still, it’s easy to wonder how much Thomas’ stunning rise has impacted the team’s plans.

Even last season, Brad Stevens intended to bring Thomas off the bench as a powerful sixth man. The Celtics envisioned him as a super sub, but he has strapped a jet pack on his back and flown closer to the sun than anyone anticipated. Now Boston has a bona fide star who can lift an offense into the sky like Simba. Will that make the Celtics hungrier to surround Thomas with more established talent? Will they more aggressively try to pry another stud because they don’t want to waste Thomas’ prime? These are questions worth asking, but, again, the biggest crime would be botching the current situation. With a damn good young team plus so much upcoming draft equity, it could take a disaster not to be one of the top teams for years to come.

What about the backcourt, though?

Over the next year or so, the Celtics will need to figure out their backcourt situation. Thomas, Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart will all be due for new (substantially larger) contracts after next season and keeping them all might not be feasible. Complicating matters, Jaylen Brown looked oddly comfortable as a replacement starting shooting guard, suggesting the position could be his best; and several of the top prospects in the upcoming draft, including Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball, play point guard. The Celtics’ backcourt will only get more crowded.

Because of all the recent success without Bradley – plus Smart’s emergence as a consistent force – people have started to question whether Bradley has become at least a bit expendable. The guess here is the Celtics would prefer to hold onto all of their best assets for now just in case the right trade comes along further down the road. They know they will need to surround Thomas (who is 5-foot-9) and Al Horford (whose biggest flaw is rebounding) with length and physicality, but Bradley remains a knockdown shooter whose defense can trap opponents in a body bag. The Celtics had a stellar +5.5 net rating just last season with Thomas and Bradley on the court; it’s not at all like that’s a doomed combination.
AP Photo/Tony Dejak

The prediction

My guess: the Celtics will be quiet at the deadline before heating up their star pursuit after the draft lottery. They want to make major upgrades, but might not find the right opportunities this week.

bob
MY NOTE: The trade deadline is Thursday 2/23, only 4 days away.

I am currently @ SFO, enroute to Bangkok, Thailand and will not be initiating as many threads nor posting as much as usual for the next couple of days. Have at it! This is YOUR forum! Use it.

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