Danny’s worst and best trades. Thoughts? (He’s a lucky still employed Exec)

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Post by Ktron Wed May 27, 2020 7:00 pm

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2020/05/27/ranking-ainge-trades-misfires-60-51/

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Post by worcester Wed May 27, 2020 10:28 pm

KG to Boston. Best trade.
KG and PP to Nets, 2nd best trade.
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Post by RosalieTCeltics Thu May 28, 2020 8:49 am

trading Perk was wrong, so wrong
IT second because of the jerk he brought here, talent or not, he could have destroyed
the Celtics if they signed him to another contract.

Gotta go with KG too, as the best. He brought joy back to the Garden
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Post by dboss Thu May 28, 2020 9:11 am

I am going to go with the Nets deal that yielded 2 of the best young players back to back. It remains to be seen if they will be part of a championship season as KG was.

We were starving for a title and KG helped to make that happen. Now our stomachs are growling for another banner.

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Post by dboss Thu May 28, 2020 9:12 am

I should mention also that KG made the trade with the Nets possible.
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Post by sinus007 Thu May 28, 2020 9:27 am

Hi,
I wonder what are the rest of the list (50 to 1).
A couple of notes.
All trades are lumped together but they should be divided by tiers, e.g. you can't compare franchise altering trade such as KG with a small stepping-stone such as Lee for Bayless+Gomes.
Also, do they include JT for Fultz trade, which technically were draft picks but now approaching the level of KG trade?

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Post by gyso Thu May 28, 2020 10:16 am

Ranking the Ainge Trades: The Misfires (60-51)

Danny Ainge has made 60 trades since being hired as the president of basketball operations for the Celtics in May 2003. With no basketball on the horizon for at least the next two months, BSJ contributor Ryan Bernardoni and I teamed up for an enjoyable, albeit challenging endeavor: Ranking them from worst to best overall.

To accomplish this task, Ryan created a formula that allowed us to grade the deal based on a variety of factors (importance, quality) while also evaluating the deal at the time a trade was made and in hindsight (years later). Some deals will get the benefit of hindsight more than others in this exercise but we did our best to account for those issues. The end result is the following ranking from 60-1 with an analysis/explanation of each deal. We will unveil roughly 10 of these trades every day for the next week, counting down to the top. We’ll also fight about a couple in which we have substantially different evaluations of how Ainge fared with them.

The vast majority of these deals produced positive results for ‘Trader Danny’ over his 17 years at the helm in Boston but there were a few rough patches for the executive. As such we begin our list from the bottom, with one of the most recent deals during Ainge’s tenure:

60. Jae Crowder, Isaiah Thomas, Ante Zizic, 2018 unprotected Nets first-round pick (No. 8 - Colin Sexton), and two future second-round picks for Kyrie Irving (August 2017)


It’s easy to pan this trade now after the Irving era ended in Boston with the All-Star walking out the door with no return for Boston. However, even at the time, this was a hefty price that Ainge paid given Irving’s circumstances with the Cavs. Irving had demanded a trade out of Cleveland and was threatening to hold out and have surgery on his knee if he didn’t get his wish. Irving also had a lengthy injury history and chemistry issues with LeBron James and the coaching staff in Cleveland. Whether or not he could be a No. 1 option on a contender was very much in question in 2017, something the C’s were asking of him when they made this deal.

The Celtics had a treasure chest of assets in the form of picks and good value contracts at this time, even with Isaiah Thomas having no real value in the summer of 2017 because of his hip injury. Acquiring Irving was part of a plan to eventually appeal to other big names to come to Boston (Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, etc.). Ultimately, the Irving trade cost the C’s a realistic chance at numerous big names that became available in the preceding year on the trade market (Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Anthony Davis in 2018 [due to Rose Rule]). While there is no guarantee those players would have stayed in Boston long-term, all of them would have raised Boston’s contending ceiling higher than Irving did during his two years in green.



For a more in-depth look at the sliding doors possibilities that would have been created if the Irving deal never happened, you can check out this column. For the purposes of this rankings exercise, it’s simple: Ainge bet big and lost. As Ryan points out, Ainge actually lucked out here with the Nets overachieving and handing the Cavs just the No. 8 overall pick. If that pick lands in the top-5 or if the Cavs got lucky in the lottery, the C's would have given up a chance at a young building block like Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson or Trae Young.

59. Austin Rivers to the Clippers for a 2017 Clippers second-round pick (No. 57 Jabari Bird), Chris Douglas-Roberts and Shavlik Randolph in a three-team trade (January 2015)

Ainge had plenty of good trades during his 2014-15 in-season makeover of the Celtics roster. This was not one of them. Rivers arrived in Boston as part of the three-team Jeff Green deal with the Grizzlies and Pelicans. New Orleans sold low on the 22-year-old Rivers at the time after 2.5 underwhelming seasons in the Bayou. The real prize the Celtics got for Green was a protected first-round pick from Memphis (still pending in 2019) and Rivers was a secondary addition.

With all the success the Celtics had in rehabbing trade value of players during this era, keeping the former lottery pick Rivers aboard for a few weeks may have helped the C’s rebuild his value and gain more assets. Keeping him as a bench piece was a legitimate option as well due to his youth.

Instead, Ainge gave him away to his father essentially for a late second-round pick, a guy who was waived right away (Chris Douglas-Roberts) and a big man who only played five games that season (Shavlik Randolph). Meanwhile, Rivers turned into a useful bench piece for the Clippers for the next three seasons. His dad overpaid him a couple of years later but he ended up being both cheap and useful in LA off the bench before being rewarded by his dad with a bloated contract. Ainge sold low here in what could be categorized as a missed opportunity.

58. E’Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson, Sean Williams, Sasha Pavlovic and three 2013 second-round picks for Courtney Lee in a sign-and-trade with Houston and Portland (July 2012)


Following the departure of Ray Allen to Miami, the Celtics were desperate for some shooting and defensive help on the wing but had no way of bringing some aboard after using their full mid-level exception on Jason Terry earlier that summer. The alternative ended up being sacrificing several assets for the right to sign Lee (a restricted free agent in Houston) to a four-year, $21-million deal. Lee surprisingly underwhelmed during his one season playing under Doc Rivers, essentially falling out of the rotation entirely in the 2013 postseason. He was unceremoniously traded a year later to Memphis.

For 1.5 seasons of average play, the Celtics gave up Moore, who developed into a useful bench shooter for about 15 percent of Lee’s salary over the next few seasons in Orlando and Chicago before signing a big deal in New Orleans. That, combined with giving up three picks in the top-45 (No. 33, 39, 45), for a pricy bench role player was a poor gamble.


57. Gerald Wallace to the Warriors for David Lee (July 2015)


The Celtics absorbed Wallace’s bad contract initially as part of the KG/Pierce blockbuster deal with the Nets. After serving as a veteran leader during his first year in Boston, Wallace turned into a $10 million bench cheerleader in year two as the C’s rebuild turned to its youth.

Ainge elected to dump Wallace’s expiring deal for another pricey, washed-up power forward in the summer of 2015 in David Lee. The 32-year-old had just lost his starting job to Draymond Green for the Warriors and was making a whopping $15.4 million in the final year of his deal.

His stay in Boston was a major disappointment as he posted career-worst production on the offensive end (45% FG) while blocking minutes for younger talent in the frontcourt. He was eventually benched in January and waived for nothing after the trade deadline, costing the C’s ownership millions for a guy who was over the hill.

56. Antoine Walker and Tony Delk to the Mavericks for Raef LaFrentz, Chris Mills, Jiri Welsch, and a 2004 1st Round Draft Pick (24th) (October 2003)


I had this one pegged as one of Ainge's worst three trades while Ryan graded it as a net neutral move (he explains why below). From my standpoint, it's easy to see why Ainge decided to shake things after the Celtics were dominated by the Nets in his arrival. He was not a fan of Walker's game (something he noted as a TV analyst on multiple occasions) and the C's were going to develop into a contender with just him and Pierce leading the way. The problem? Ainge traded one bad deal in Walker for an even worse one in LaFrentz (six years, $65 million left). Taking on that was essentially turning one bad deal into another one and it certainly wasn't worth doing it for Jiri Welsch and a late first-round pick as the payoff.

Ryan Bernardoni: Ainge’s first major move as Boston’s GM was to trade Antoine Walker who, at 27 years old, had made three All-Star teams. Walker had two years left on his six-year, $71-million extension that was, at the time of signing, the richest in Celtics’ history. He was one of the two faces of the franchise.

The return was understood to primarily be Raef LaFrentz, a stretch-5 before those existed, who had never scored more than 15 PPG but had managed to secure one of the worst contracts in the NBA. At the time of the trade, it had six years and $65M still on it. He might have been a better player than the pre-analytics movement league realized, but not at that price.

It seemed like Ainge had flipped two seasons of an All-Star in his prime for six years of a solid role player who was being paid like an All-Star. For his trouble he also had to include Tony Delk, a productive spot-starter, and eat the final year of out-of-the-league Chris Mills’s expensive contract.

The pay-off for this was Jiri Welsch, who had shown less than nothing at that point in his young career but had been a mid-1st round pick, and one future, late 1st round pick.

In short, this was a terrible deal that should absolutely not have worked out.

The future pick became Delonte West. West became a part of the trade for Ray Allen and Glen Davis. Welsch was traded for a 1st that was traded for the pick that became Rajon Rondo. Even LaFrentz, by way of an expensive trade to move a year of his deal for the less bloated contract of Theo Ratliff, was a part of the Kevin Garnett puzzle.

This miserable trade that was probably just Ainge taking a heavy loss to move Walker and get himself a clean slate seeded the ground for the Garnett and Allen trades and the 2008 title. Something about it being better to be lucky than good…

55. Courtney Lee and a 2016 second-round pick to the Grizzlies for Jerryd Bayless and Ryan Gomes (December 2013)

This was largely a long contract dump for the rebuilding Celtics in the first year of the Brad Stevens era. Lee was actually playing well, but an overstocked backcourt left him playing limited minutes per game. At age 28, he wasn’t a part of the future, so the C’s elected to dump his years with a pick for a look at Jerryd Bayless on an expiring deal.

This was a rare miscalculation on Ainge’s part during this rebuilding period since Lee’s deal ended up being a good value as the salary cap skyrocketed in the middle of the decade. Holding onto Lee for even one more season may have produced a solid return in a trade from a playoff team. Instead, Ainge gave up an asset (second-round pick) to get off his deal. Gomes was waived immediately while Bayless played an uneventful half-season in Boston before he walked in free agency.

54. 2019 No 20 overall pick (Matisse Thybulle) for 2019 No. 24 overall pick (Ty Jerome) and No. 33 Carsen Edwards (June 2019)

There’s still plenty of time left to evaluate this one, but the early returns are not promising. Thybulle is already a defensive stud for the 76ers in year one (albeit with a very limited offensive skillset). Given the C’s shallow bench rotation, he would have been a piece that could have helped right away. The Celtics ended up flipping No. 24 for a 2020 Bucks first-round pick in the Aron Baynes salary dump with Phoenix and that is on course to be No. 30 overall in 2020. Meanwhile, Carsen Edwards has struggled mightily during his rookie season. It’s too early to make any grand declarations about this one, but the Sixers look like they got the best player in the deal.

53. 2011 No. 25 overall pick (MarShon Brooks) for 2011 No. 27 overall pick (JaJuan Johnson) and 2014 second-round pick (No. 47 - Russ Smith)



My Comment:  Using the link doesn't get me all the listed trades.  For some reason (not logging in because I don't have an account there?) I cannot see Trades 51-53.


Last edited by gyso on Thu May 28, 2020 3:11 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : added "My Comment")

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Post by bobheckler Thu May 28, 2020 2:11 pm

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2020/05/28/ranking-ainge-trades-ordinary-deals-50-31/



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Post by gyso Thu May 28, 2020 3:06 pm

Ranking the Ainge trades: The Forgettables (50-29)

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2020/05/28/ranking-ainge-trades-ordinary-deals-50-31/

Danny Ainge has made 60 trades since being hired as the president of basketball operations for the Celtics in May 2003. With no basketball on the horizon for at least the next two months, BSJ contributor Ryan Bernardoni and I teamed up for an enjoyable, albeit challenging endeavor: Ranking the Ainge trades from worst to best overall.

To accomplish this task, Ryan created a formula that allowed us to grade the deal based on a variety of factors (importance, quality) while also evaluating the deal at the time a trade was made and in hindsight (years later). Some deals will get the benefit of hindsight more than others in this exercise but we did our best to account for those issues. The end result is the following ranking from 60-1 with an analysis/explanation of each deal. We will unveil roughly 10 of these trades every day for the next week, counting down to the top. We’ll also fight about a couple in which we have substantially different evaluations of how Ainge fared with them.

We looked at part one of the series on Wednesday. In Part 2, we look at some of the more ordinary deals than Ainge completed (salary dumps) mixed in with some swaps that worked out evenly for both sides.

50. Aron Baynes and 2019 No. 24 overall pick (Ty Jerome) to the Suns for 2020 Bucks first-round pick (No. 30) (June 2019)

This was a bit of a wise calculated gamble by Ainge and the Celtics last summer. With the C’s needing cap space in order to sign Kemba Walker outright when free agency began, they had to dump a few million dollars off the books. Dumping salary when other teams know you have to do it can be expensive for teams (see: Andre Iguodala) so Ainge decided to get proactive and dump the money before the world knew of the team's intentions of landing Walker. Aron Baynes was the easiest piece to lose (without giving up compensation), and he became a part of a first-round pick swap with Phoenix on draft night. Enes Kanter (signed with room-level exception) proved to be a worthy replacement for Baynes in the first half of the 2019-2020 regular season, but his defensive struggles and injury issues left him on the edge of the rotation when the season was suspended. This trade could prove more valuable if the C’s find a gem at No. 30 this year (or use it to land someone helpful via trade), but for now, it’s a question mark if Kanter will be more useful than Baynes this postseason.

49. Jameer Nelson to the Nuggets for Nate Robinson (January 2015)

This was effectively a salary dump for the C’s after the veteran point guard was acquired by Boston as part of the Rajon Rondo trade with Dallas. Nelson was making more money than Nate Robinson and the Nuggets had a need for a backup point guard. With Nelson having no real trade value around the league, the C’s cut some salary off the books by dumping Nelson for Robinson. The 31-year-old Robinson was waived days later.

48. Walter McCarty and cash to the Suns for a protected second-round pick (2007 No. 49 Aaron Gray) (February 2005):

McCarty was the longest-tenured Celtic at the time of the deal (eight seasons) but had become a 30-year-old role player on a rebuilding squad. The run-and-gun Suns were happy to take him for the low price of a late second-round pick. The Celtics traded away the second-round pick that eventually became Gray in 2006. We've entered the net neutral part of the rankings.

47. J.R. Bremer, Bruno Sundov and a 2005 second-round pick (No. 50 Ryan Gomes) to Cavs for Jumaine Jones (July 2003):

Bremer surprisingly went from undrafted to a mainstay in the Celtics rotation during his rookie season thanks to injuries and a dearth of point guard options for head coach Jim O'Brien. Ainge wisely assessed that Bremer wasn’t good upon his arrival and traded him away while he had some value with a second-round pick for a competent reserve wing in Jumaine Jones. It was a solid idea that didn’t pan out, as Jones played the worst basketball of his career for Boston (2.2 ppg, 34% FG) before being dealt away by Ainge a year later.

46-38. Good Process but Ultimately Meaningless

There’s a set of trades that Ainge has signed off on mostly for financial reasons that have had no on-court impact. These can be ranked in any order and there isn’t much to say about most of them.

46. Fab Melo and cash to the Grizzlies for Donte Greene (August 2013):

This trade was the end of Melo’s NBA career which lasted just one season and six games. The Celtics needed to open up some roster spots following the completion of the KG/Pierce deal and Melo had showed in his one season that he wasn’t an NBA player. He was signed and cut by the Mavericks in training camp before playing in the G-League and Brazil for a couple of seasons ahead of his untimely death in 2018 at age 26.

45. Jabari Bird and cash to the Hawks for a Top-55 protected 2020 second-round pick (will not convey) (February 2019)

Ryan Bernardoni: Bird looked like the rare 50th+ pick who might have an NBA career when he signed a guaranteed contract after his rookie year. Just over two months later he was arrested on domestic abuse and kidnapping charges. The legal system moves slower than the NBA season so the Celtics ended up having to pay Atlanta to take and waive him, which involved paying out his contract because it couldn’t legally be voided yet, in order to keep him off the C’s luxury tax calculation.

44. Patrick O’Bryant and cash to the Raptors for a Top-55 protected 2014 second-round pick (did not convey) (February 2009)

RB: The Celtics were in the luxury tax so it was cheaper to pay the Raptors to waive O’Bryant than for Boston to do it themselves. If the former lottery pick is remembered for anything in Boston, it’s for Kevin Garnett mentally breaking him in practice. The Last Dance was yet another reminder that great players aren’t perfect people.

43. Dwayne Jones for Luke Jackson and cash (October 2006)


RB: This is the most forgettable trade on the entire list.

42. Marquis Daniels and cash to the Kings for a Top-55 protected 2017 second-round pick (did not convey) (February 2011)

RB: Daniels was a useful part of the Celtics rotation until he suffered a terrifying spinal cord injury in a collision with Gilbert Arenas. That ended his season, though not his time in Boston. The Celtics were once again a luxury tax team and so paid Sacramento to waive him and take on his contract accounting, but he returned to the C's as a free agent before the next season.

41. Sam Cassell and cash to the Kings for a Top-55 protected 2015 second-round pick (did not convey) (February 2009)

RB: The only player on this list to have his trademark celebration banned by the league, Cassell should have retired in the aftermath of the 2008 title. Instead, he was still officially on the roster in 2009 though he didn’t play and was considered part of the coaching staff. As with a few of the trades above this one, Boston was in the luxury tax and paid Sacramento to take the accounting hit for his salary. He was waived by the Kings the following day and then officially retired a few months later.

40. Joel Anthony to the Pistons for Will Bynum (October 2014)

RB: Instead of waiving Joel Anthony, Ainge traded him to Detroit for the less expensive Bynum and then waived Bynum a few days later. The Pistons thought Anthony still had something left in the tank. They were wrong, but somehow he still managed to get paid for three more NBA seasons.

39. A Top-55 protected 2018 second-round pick (No. 57 Kevin Hervey) to the Thunder for Perry Jones III, a 2019 second-round pick (No. 45 Isaiah Roby) and cash (July 2015)

38. A Top-55 protected 2019 second-round pick (did not convey) to the Heat for Zoran Dragic, a 2020 second-round pick (Currently 53) and cash (July 2015)


RB: In the summer of 2015 the Celtics went under the salary cap for the first time since the late ’90s and used that space primarily on Amir Johnson. With their remaining bits of otherwise unneeded flexibility, they took on and then waived the contracts of Zoran Dragic and Perry Jones to save their trade partners on the luxury tax. In both cases, they received a 2nd round pick and cash to cover their salaries.

All involved teams have to send something in a trade so Boston returned a top-55 protected pick in both cases, probably assuming it would never convey. The Jones trade ranks below the Dragic one simply because the Celtics were a top-5 team in 2018 and so did have to send the pick along.

The pick received for Dragic ended up in Cleveland as the price for Isaiah Thomas’s poor physical.

37. 2006 second-round pick (No. 56 Edin Bavcic) to Hornets for Dan Dickau (September 2005)

Seemingly everyone had a soft spot in their heart for the former Gonzaga star at some point in the 2000s. This was a low-risk gamble for Ainge, essentially giving up a worthless second-round pick as Dickau joined his fifth team in three seasons. He played just 19 games in a single injury-riddled season for Boston before being shipped out.

36. Cash to Pacers for 2013 No. 53 Colton Iverson (June 2013)

For about three straight summer leagues, there was a 'buzz' about the Colorado State big man who was getting seasoning overseas. Iverson never quite turned the corner though and became an NBA player. The Celtics renounced his rights in 2016, and Iverson has spent his entire career in Europe.

35. Kris Humphries sign-and-trade to the Wizards for a Top-55 protected 2015 second-round pick (did not convey)


RB: Ainge & Co. famously turned a trade exception from Paul Pierce into Tyler Zeller and Isaiah Thomas (one trade removed). For a few seasons after that, a contingent of Celtics fans seemed to believe that TPEs were the secret to NBA success and countless barrels of virtual ink were dedicated to explaining what they are and how they’re used.

When the Celtics and Humphries decided to part ways following his one season in Boston, he landed in Washington via a sign-and-trade. That’s because the Wizards had a TPE of their own that they wanted to use to take on his new contract and making that transfer created a matching TPE for Boston.

This shiny new TPE was used to take on Jae Crowder from Dallas which created a new TPE to account for nearly $13M of Rajon Rondo. Now THAT trade exception… was renounced.

34. Tony Battie, Eric Williams and Kedrick Brown to the Cavs for Ricky Davis, Chris Mihm, Michael Stewart and a 2005 second-round pick (No. 50 Ryan Gomes) (December 2003)


My Comment:  Using the link still doesn't get me all the listed trades.  For some reason (not logging in because I don't have an account there?) I cannot see Trades 29-34.

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Post by NYCelt Thu May 28, 2020 3:42 pm

Have to admit, as soon as I saw they were reviewing 60 trades I closed it up immediately.

No way I'm pouring through that.

He's made some good trades, and some bad trades. Like every exec.

The bigger picture is he's not afraid to get in there and take a shot at improving the roster.
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Post by jrleftfoot Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:00 pm

NYCelt wrote:Have to admit, as soon as I saw they were reviewing 60 trades I closed it up immediately.

No way I'm pouring through that.

He's made some good trades, and some bad trades. Like every exec.

The bigger picture is he's not afraid to get in there and take a shot at improving the roster.
                   


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Post by RosalieTCeltics Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:55 pm

How many GM's have landed on their feet twice the way Danny has. We were lucky to watch him pull off the KG, Allen trade and bring a title here. Those were fun years. Then the short IT era, that had everyone rooting for "the little guy" and sharing in his sadness as he struggled with death and then injury and the trade. We were split on the decision to bring "you know who" here, but it was exciting at times until he gave up on the team and walked. Who could have imagined that he would pull off signing Kemba in the same week? We are watching two terrific young players develop right before our eyes, AND, have shared in the joys and heartache of Gordon Hayward. So I will say, even with the ones that got away, we are pretty lucky to have Danny around.

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Post by NYCelt Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:35 am

RosalieTCeltics wrote:How many GM's  have landed on their feet twice the way Danny has.  We were lucky to watch him pull off the KG, Allen trade and bring a title here. Those were fun years.  Then the short IT era, that had everyone rooting for "the little guy" and sharing in his sadness as he struggled with death and then injury and the trade. We were split on the decision to bring "you know who" here, but it was exciting at times until he gave up on the team and walked. Who could have imagined that he would pull off signing Kemba in the same week?  We are watching two terrific young players develop right before our eyes, AND, have shared in the joys and heartache of Gordon Hayward.  So I will say, even with the ones that got away, we are pretty lucky to have Danny around.  

Just my opinion

I agree.
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