Opportunity knocks for the Celtics young bench

https://www.celticsblog.com/2020/12/1/21726339/opportunity-knocks-boston-celtics-young-bench-aaron-nesmith-grant-robert-williams-payton-pritchard

The Boston Celtics have minutes to go around for younger players.

By Jeff Clark@celticsblog Dec 1, 2020, 8:00am EST

The offseason seems to be winding down and the Celtics roster appears to be mostly in place. Good thing too, because games are coming right around the corner. I was pushing all of last year for some veteran bench depth. The Celtics finally went to the market and picked themselves up a center (Tristan Thompson) and backup point guard (Jeff Teague). Then again, those two essentially replace Enes Kanter and Brad Wanamaker in the rotation. Thompson’s role will be larger and Teague may need to fill more to accommodate Kemba Walker’s load management. So who replaces the minutes Gordon Hayward filled (when healthy)?

The Celtics have a large group of younger players that I affectionately refer to as “The Kids.” At least a few of them are going to need to step up into bigger and/or more consistent roles. Here are a few to consider.

Grant Williams: The General is going to need to step in and contribute. Depending on how Brad Stevens wants to work out the rotations, he could even be the starting power forward at times this season. He has what I consider the highest floor in this bunch. He’s only going into his second year but I trust him like a 5-year vet.

Romeo Langford: A lot of folks considered Romeo the team’s “Hayward insurance” last year. Theoretically when Hayward missed time, Langford could get his feet wet and train to be an eventual replacement for Gordon. Unfortunately, Langford mirrored Gordon in bad injury luck, but former CelticsBlogger Chris Grenham has reported that Langford will be out of his cast in about a week. (Update: The Celtics announced today that Romeo is projected to return “four-to-five months” from September 22nd) At times he showed great promise last year, in particular on the defensive end. He was more of a slasher and scorer in college, so once he’s back and healthy the team should try to maximize his talents on both ends.

Aaron Nesmith: As a rookie, the expectations shouldn’t be too high right away. But Nesmith has a very valuable and (in theory) translatable skill to bring to the table on Day 1. His shooting gives the Celtics a dynamic that they have been short in recently. It isn’t fair to expect Duncan Robinson-level production, but if you squint your eyes, you can see a similar style of play from Nesmith. Throw a trap at Tatum and he can swing it to Jaylen who can swing it to Nesmith with an open look. Soon enough defenses will have to take an extra step out there which frees things up in the lane.

Robert Williams: Thompson and Theis will be the best big duo in Boston since Horford and Baynes. They are mobile, switchable, and productive. So does that leave Robert “Timelord” Williams on the outside of the rotation looking in? Not necessarily. We all know that the “war on Theis” gets him in foul trouble a lot. Injuries happen (unfortunately) and we’ll need depth down low eventually.

This is also perhaps an underrated area where losing Hayward will hurt. Many times, in order to maximize the talent on the roster, Stevens would “go small” and use someone like Grant or Semi Ojeleye at the 5. That’s still an option but we might need Grant more at the 4 which opens up more time for Timelord in certain situations.

Payton Pritchard: As skeptical as I’ve been of this pick, it does seem like he’s a gamer who honed his game at the college level and might be able to step in and contribute fairly quickly at the next level. His shooting alone is something that could earn him some time and as mentioned above, there could be minutes at the point guard spot - at least early on.

Honorable mentions: That’s already a lot of youth on the roster, but wait, there’s more! Carsen Edwards and Javonte Green are still on the roster will have a chance to compete for playing time. Tremont Waters and Tacko Fall are back on two-way contracts, and this year, that could mean a lot of time with the parent club. Will any of them provide more than “break glass if needed” insurance? Not sure, but filling out the end of the bench with cheap developmental talent seems like a good idea.

So who do you think steps up into a bigger role this year? Will it be one or two guys or a committee approach?

Romeo's return is "4-5 months from procedure".  His procedure was 9/22, therefore his earliest expected return should be around January 19th.  He's out of the cast now, but that's a long time to rehab and get strong.  His development has become SO retarded (as in "slowed") due to his almost non-stop succession of injuries.

The bad news is that he has no trade value other than as "filler".  If Romeo was "Hayward insurance" last year then Nesmith is "Romeo insurance" this year.


Bob
P.S.  Looking forward to reading DBoss' comments about Jeff Clark opinion of Grant Williams and that he "trust him like a 5-year vet."  That should be amusing...

.

So who do you think steps up into a bigger role this year? Will it be one or two guys or a committee approach?

With Kemba problematic at least for the beginning of the season, perhaps the answer to the question may be someone not currently on the roster.

With Langford also out, it is an opportunity for Grant and Nesmith to lock in bigger roles and for Green to step into a consistent role.

KyleCleric wrote:With Langford also out, it is an opportunity for Grant and Nesmith to lock in bigger roles and for Green to step into a consistent role.

Kyle,

Good point about Javonte Green, the overlooked Celtic.


Bob


.

The Celtics were an efficient offensive team with GH in the lineup.

With his departure Brad is faced with the task of finding a replacement in the starting lineup.

I have a tool box filled with my socket wrench and a bunch of different size sockets.  I never know which socket will be the right fit so I have to try this one and then that one until I know I have the right fit.

A bunch of options are presented here.  Let me attempt my unqualified evaluation.

Grant Williams could replace GH in the lineup.  That is 100% true but the Celtics offensive style would be changed dramatically.  GH has a diverse offensive game and he can score on 3 levels.  Grant is one of the worse offensive players I have ever seen put on a Celtics jersey.  I recall a post that I did last year that predicted that grant would end up with a total of 23.8 three point shots made for the season.  He finished with a total of 24.  Offensively Grant does not have the skills to open up the floor or score in a post offense.  Defensively you could play him at PF and he should be able to hold his own unless he is going up against a premier PF.  the big problem with him at PF is the fact that Brad has not really played him at that position.  He has been used almost exclusively as a small ball 5.  Conclusion:  Next candidate please.

Romeo Langford is hurt again.   Next candidate.

Aaron Nesmith is a rookie.  He said he is a sniper.  He put up ridiculous numbers in college.  He has work to do in many areas such as ball handling and playing NBA level defense.  His physical profile fits that of a NBA 3 and D guy.  In two weeks we may get a chance to see if his shooting is as advertised and if it is, his status as a rookie may be elevated.  Tatum came in and started every game as a rookie so it is not unheard of.  Tatum however came in as a more complete prospect.  There is a possibility that Nesmith starts right out of the gate if his shooting is spot on.  Next candidate.

Robert Williams is a center so he will not be starting for this team.  Either Theis or Thompson will start at center.  Theis never plays at the 4 so how do you pair RW and DT together?  The same scenario applies to TT and RW.  TT has rarely played at the 4 with another guy at the 5.  Next candidate

Payton Pritchard.  don't be ridiculous.   Next Candidate.

Semi Ojeleye is the most likely replacement in the lineup for GH.  He is only mention as an after thought in this article.  Last year Semi shot 37.8% from deep and 87.5% from the line.  Semi is a solid on the ball defender all the way out to the perimeter.  He is not much of a playmaker but his handle did look better last year off the bounce.  I have always been perplexed by a guy with a body that physically looks like a beast but yet limited in his production.  He has experience and just maybe consistent minutes will help him find a more prominent role.  My conclusion is that Semi is an option to start.

Javonte Green is an option to start because of his athleticism.  Think of Tony Allen.  You could plug him in at the 2 and put JB at the 3 and JT at 4.  Marcus at the point.  Green however is not a reliable shooter from deep.  My conclusion is that green is an option to start.

So I see 3 candidates.  Nesmith, Ojeleye and Green.

If scoring is the issue I would try Nesmith

If defense is the need I would go with Semi

And if energy and athleticism could help most of all I would try Green

One other option not discussed is to put Teague at the point and MS at the 2.  The tradeoff would be no experienced BU at the point.

Pair Thompson and Theis up front, I think cowens would love to see that!
Make the other teams match up to us now.

Tatum and Brown at the wings

Smart starts at PG then.

Teague first guy off the bench

Grant next man up

Semi makes 8

Nesmith likely getting first dibs with Green or even Edwards getting a real shot for bench minutes,

that's my guess right now, but everything changes IF Ainge uses that TPE (which I see as more likely now, with the Kemba news)

gyso wrote:
So who do you think steps up into a bigger role this year? Will it be one or two guys or a committee approach?

dboss wrote:
I have a tool box filled with my socket wrench and a bunch of different size sockets.  I never know which socket will be the right fit so I have to try this one and then that one until I know I have the right fit.

I would have never thought of a socket wrench set as an analogy to answer this question, but I believe it works.

With the exception of Jeff Teague, who it appears from comments already made by D Ainge to be sliding right into the PG role in Walkers absence, trying several players fits. [Run-on sentence and bad play on words (socket/fit) combined. Sorry.]

Beyond what I would surmise to be the likely starting unit of Tatum, Brown, Thompson, Smart and Walker, I think you have Teague and Theis. After that it may very well be trying players in various roles until you find a fit. Or at least a rotation in this case.

So I think you have an unknown. It may look a lot like a committee to start, as players are inserted into different situations and roles.

I would not be at all surprised, nor overly concerned, by a relatively slow start for the team this year. I expect it. There is a long, lightly experienced, line forming behind the first 7. There will be some trial and error involved in coming up with a rotation. Once it is set, however, I think we'll see a strong surge toward the playoffs.

As far as my personal experience with that same socket set situation, I find a good amount of cursing as you work your way through helps. Especially when you discover the damn thing is metric and your sockets are mostly English.

How about this for an idea:  Start Nesmith.

Brad has gone down this path before, where he started a young'un because he'll be surrounded by our best veteran talent and they will help offset his learning curve and cover for him on defense (Grant, Semi and even Romeo started games last season.  Grant started 6, Semi 5, so it wasn't just a "let's give the normal starters a night off).

By starting Nesmith that enables Brad to either start Smart, giving Nesmith a Brad-system veteran who will feed him, or Jeff Teague.  Teague lacks time in Brad's system but he has a decade of NBA experience.  His learning curve will flatten out quicker than anybody else available and that will also allow Smart to come off the bench and steady the young'uns coming off the bench.

This would be a much more viable option if we had summer league and a normal length preseason, but we don't, and that's the ant at the TD Gahden Pahty.


Bob


.

kdp59 wrote:Pair Thompson and Theis up front, I think cowens would love to see that!
Make the other teams match up to us now.

Tatum and Brown at the wings

Smart starts at PG then.

Teague first guy off the bench

Grant next man up

Semi makes 8

Nesmith likely getting first dibs with Green or even Edwards getting a real shot for bench minutes,

that's my guess right now, but everything changes IF Ainge uses that TPE (which I see as more likely now, with the Kemba news)

kdp59

I would be shocked if Brad paired TT and DT.  DT hardly ever played with AH or any other center.  A source would be to look at NBA lineups.

In today's game a PF has to be able to handle the rock.  Neither TT or DT are good ball handlers.  If they dribble the ball more than once I am looking for a turnover.  Our offense would be stuck in the mud if the two of them played together.  DT did not play one minute last year with either Kanter or Robert Williams.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GroupQuantity=2

Theis was paired with Semi in a total of 51 games for 268 minutes (5.1 minutes per game)  Theis was paired with Grant Williams in 52 games for 209 minutes (4 minutes per game)

The actual time on the court with Theis paired with Grant or Semi is really small.  Theis virtually never plays with another center so he is unlikely to be paired with TT.  Brad Stevens never really gave Grant a real opportunity to play at the 4.  He never gave it a chance to work.  The Celtics offensive/defensive rating was better when Grant paired with Theis 103.9/97.6 compared to Semi and Theis (106.5/105).   Pairings of 4 or 5 minutes during a 48 minute game does not nail anything down.  I think Brad needs to just keep trying different sockets until he gets the right fit.

I am going out on a limb with a longshot that the rookie Nesmith will replace GH in the lineup. Offensively Nesmith is probably a better offensive player than Grant or Semi so therefore I could see Brad going with him even though he is an inexperienced rookie.

bobheckler wrote:How about this for an idea:  Start Nesmith.

Brad has gone down this path before, where he started a young'un because he'll be surrounded by our best veteran talent and they will help offset his learning curve and cover for him on defense (Grant, Semi and even Romeo started games last season.  Grant started 6, Semi 5, so it wasn't just a "let's give the normal starters a night off).

By starting Nesmith that enables Brad to either start Smart, giving Nesmith a Brad-system veteran who will feed him, or Jeff Teague.  Teague lacks time in Brad's system but he has a decade of NBA experience.  His learning curve will flatten out quicker than anybody else available and that will also allow Smart to come off the bench and steady the young'uns coming off the bench.

This would be a much more viable option if we had summer league and a normal length preseason, but we don't, and that's the ant at the TD Gahden Pahty.


Bob


.

I just posted something before I saw your post. Nesmith it is. good luck kid!